NBA Grind Down: Saturday, October 28th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Derrick Rose | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Projected Starters | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 24 | 28 | 25 | 21 | DvP | 25 | 20 | 23 | 4 | 3 | |
| DRPM | 1.40 | -1.63 | -0.47 | 3.65 | 0.57 | DRPM | -2.53 | -0.77 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 0.95 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Notable Injuries Dwayne Wade and Derrick Rose (Questionable)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.2 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Rose | $5,100 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 20.4 | 27.1 | 0.75 | 19.1% | 12 | 1.40 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 12.2 | 25.1 | 0.49 | 15.1% | 24 | -1.63 |
| LeBron James | $11,300 | $10,700 | $18,800 | 53.8 | 37.7 | 1.43 | 29.0% | 28 | -0.47 |
| Kevin Love | $7,700 | $7,400 | $14,500 | 32.5 | 28.9 | 1.13 | 24.0% | 25 | 3.65 |
| Tristan Thompson | $3,700 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 16.3 | 23.2 | 0.70 | 7.9% | 21 | 0.57 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,500 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 16.6 | 22.4 | 0.74 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Jeff Green J.R. Smith plays if wade and rose are out), Kevin Love
The Cavs are a mess right now with tons of injuries and if LBJ is staring at Point Guard he is a guy you want to load up on him in your cash games. Wade and Rose are currently both questionable and if they don’t play I would be looking to get a ton of exposure to LBJ in this spot. In his last two games he has played point guard he has produced over 60 FanDuel points in both outings. In a game against the Pelicans where they are banged up I expect the Cavs to win and LBJ should get his and be one of the top scoring plays on this slate. I have made the mistake passing on LBJ in cash and I am going to make sure I don’t do that again.
If Wade and Rose both don’t play I think J.R. Smith has upside to win tournaments with the shot attempts he can provide if he gets hot I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on him in tournaments. The interesting play is Jeff Green who had a 38 fantasy point outing against the Nets filling a nice role off the bench with Wade and Rose out. For $4000 on DraftKings I could see him being a great tournament play that we should be considering on this slate if both the guards are out here. This is a game that we will have to wait on news for so be sure to be close to your computer as we get closer to lock to help make decisions on who to play here.
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries Anthony Davis)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.2 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $7,400 | $6,900 | $15,000 | 30.0 | 37.4 | 0.80 | 19.7% | 25 | -2.53 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,200 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 16.9 | 31.9 | 0.53 | 12.0% | 20 | -0.77 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 15.9 | 28.5 | 0.56 | 9.9% | 23 | 1.57 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,700 | $10,500 | $20,000 | 48.7 | 31.1 | 1.56 | 26.2% | 4 | 1.93 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $12,000 | $11,900 | $22,000 | 62.8 | 37.9 | 1.66 | 31.0% | 3 | 0.95 |
| Jameer Nelson | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 20.3 | 30.1 | 0.67 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Demarcus Cousins
Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday and Jameer Nelson)
Anthony Davis is Questionable I know it’s just another day that ends in Y for Davis because this man is always freaking hurt!! I am hoping he doesn’t play but if he does with the amount of tilt he has caused this industry he is an interesting tournament option if he plays. If he doesn’t play lock in Demarcus Cousins in your cash games and tournaments. Boogie is seeing a HUGE usage bump with no Davis on the floor and is virtually a lock here. With No Davis he is seeing a usage at 40% and that is something I would not want to fade on this slate. The price tag is expensive and there are other Center options to love today but the points he can provide with no Davis on the floor are tough to pass up in your cash games and tournaments.
If you want exposure to some other options really give a strong look at Jrue Holiday who can have some upside in tournaments. I like getting exposure to him in cash games and even correlating him in tournaments with Cousins. A bench option that I like is Jameer Nelson who seems to have become acclimated well to the Pelicans coming off his best game against the Kings the other day and is still very cheap. If Davis is out, there will be shots to go around and Nelson should see 30 minutes of playing time with double digit shot attempts in the mid $4000 price range this makes him an interesting tournament play.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Bam Adebayo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 13 | 29 | 22 | 24 | DvP | 3 | 2 | 30 | 2 | 22 | |
| DRPM | -1.61 | -0.06 | -0.16 | 1.72 | N/A | DRPM | -2.16 | -0.10 | N/A | 1.59 | 2.81 | |
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries Marcus Morris Out)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,900 | $8,400 | $14,900 | 39.1 | 35.6 | 1.10 | 27.2% | 1 | -1.61 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,000 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 29.4 | 34.2 | 0.86 | 19.9% | 13 | -0.06 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,700 | $6,000 | $12,500 | 29.5 | 33.0 | 0.89 | 15.3% | 29 | -0.16 |
| Al Horford | $7,500 | $7,000 | $13,600 | 35.7 | 33.0 | 1.08 | 18.4% | 22 | 1.72 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 15.5 | 18.9 | 0.82 | 13.3% | 24 | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $6,100 | $5,600 | $13,000 | 28.9 | 31.4 | 0.92 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum
The Celtics draw a tough defensive matchup against the Miami Heat and their prices have increased around the industry but with all the minutes and usage to go around there are still some interesting options that we should be considering here. Kyrie is seeing a team high usage 35.9% on the season and averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. A player like this is always in play in cash games and tournaments even at a high price tag. Looking at the matchup specifically and the way I am constructing my roster Kyrie would be a tournament play because of the tough matchup he is in but the usage and upside he possesses are too tough to pass up.
Brown and Tatum are both around $6000 on DraftKings have been great this year and exceeded expectations so far. Brad Stevens said both these guys are going to have to put up shots going forward, and they have been. On top of that both have played over 30 minutes in every game this year except one! These two both have nice floors and upside at their price which make them cash and tournament viable on this slate. Marcus Smart being back certainly cuts into Brown and Tatum’s shot attempts a little but I’m not that worried and even have interest in Smart here. Smart is only $5600 and going to see a lot of second team usage along with opportunity to close the game out with the starting unit. At this price tag we would have been all over Smart early in the year with Hayward out, but the injury made us forget about him. Don’t forget about him tonight and get exposure to him in this spot.
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries Hassan Whiteside and Rodney McGruder (Out)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,000 | 31.5 | 33.2 | 0.95 | 24.8% | 3 | -2.16 |
| Dion Waiters | $6,200 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0.75 | 20.8% | 2 | -0.10 |
| Josh Richardson | $5,900 | $5,300 | $10,800 | 27.2 | 35.7 | 0.76 | 15.1% | 30 | N/A |
| James Johnson | $7,400 | $6,600 | $11,300 | 35.3 | 27.7 | 1.27 | 21.8% | 2 | 1.59 |
| Bam Adebayo | $3,100 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 8.3 | 12.6 | 0.66 | 11.1% | 22 | 2.81 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,500 | $5,400 | $11,300 | 24.0 | 22.3 | 1.08 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 20.1 | 26.9 | 0.75 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic
Whiteside is already ruled out for this game giving us some value to love on this slate. We get to target two big men on the Heat in James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk. James Johnson is a great play in both cash and tournaments tomorrow against a Boston team that struggles on the boards and against opposing big men. Kelly Olynyk is another big man on the Heat to target for all the revenge against his former team. I expect both these options to have great games and would play them in both cash games and tournaments.
With McGruder out, we have seen a ton of minutes to go around for these Heat players. Josh Richardson and Dion Waiters are two guys that will get minutes and put up shots, but drawing matchups against Jaylen Brown defense has me slightly concerned. I think if I want Heat exposure I would prefer to do get my exposure through Olynyk and James Johnson. One guy that is a guard that I would like to play in tournaments is Goran Dragic. He will get Kyrie defense which we are not scared of and Dragic is priced up where people will shy away from him. Dragic has upside here that can win you a tournament. I wouldn’t be going all in on Dragic but I like getting some exposure to him in tournaments.
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.8 | Implied Team Total | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -4.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | James Harden | Eric Gordon | Luc Mbah a Moute | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Mike Conley | Andrew Harrison | James Ennis | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 27 | DvP | 17 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 20 | |
| DRPM | -0.50 | 0.17 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 0.84 | DRPM | -1.81 | -0.13 | 2.19 | -0.16 | 1.25 | |
Houston Rockets
Notable Injuries Trevor Ariza (Questionable) Chris Paul Out)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $11,500 | $10,600 | $21,500 | 46.6 | 36.3 | 1.28 | 33.2% | 13 | -0.50 |
| Eric Gordon | $7,100 | $6,700 | $15,000 | 31.2 | 31.3 | 1.00 | 29.7% | 4 | 0.17 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $4,400 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 14.8 | 27.6 | 0.54 | 11.2% | 8 | 1.40 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 19.6 | 29.6 | 0.66 | 12.6% | 15 | 1.38 |
| Clint Capela | $8,100 | $6,400 | $14,000 | 37.8 | 24.7 | 1.53 | 18.6% | 27 | 0.84 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,600 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.3 | 29.0 | 0.63 | 9.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Harden (DraftKings)
Secondary Plays – Ryan Anderson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
James Harden is always in play especially with Chris Paul out but with the slow pace of the Grizzles has me shying away from him at this price tag on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Harden becomes more in play for $10,600 and coming off a 39.75-point performance against Memphis, he makes an interesting tournament option because people might be biased based on his most recent poor outing. With Trevor Ariza out, there is still forward value with Ryan Anderson and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute as options to consider here.
Eric Gordon is seeing a higher usage than in the past with CP3 out but he is now priced up ($6700) and in a slower paced game I am going to pass on him at this high price tag. Clint Capela has been crushing it recently but draws a tough matchup against Marc Gasol. For $6400 I think there are other Center plays I would target rather than Capela but if you think this is a big Harden game I don’t hate pairing him up with Capela in this matchup – it is not necessary to correlate them here though. I always love rostering the Rockets because of their high-powered offense but in this slower paced game I will temper my expectations on some of them.
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries Jaymichael Green, Wayne Seldon and Ben McLemore)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Conley | $7,500 | $7,600 | $14,400 | 30.5 | 31.8 | 0.96 | 26.6% | 17 | -1.81 |
| Andrew Harrison | $3,000 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 8.4 | 19.2 | 0.44 | 14.5% | 19 | -0.13 |
| James Ennis | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.8 | 28.4 | 0.63 | 9.8% | 6 | 2.19 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,700 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 19.2 | 24.7 | 0.78 | 13.6% | 13 | -0.16 |
| Marc Gasol | $9,000 | $8,000 | $14,300 | 44.5 | 34.9 | 1.27 | 26.3% | 20 | 1.25 |
| Tyreke Evans | $4,800 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 22.6 | 22.8 | 0.99 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Chalmers | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 15.5 | 23.6 | 0.66 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mike Conley and Marc Gasol
Secondary Plays – Jerrell Martin(tournaments only)
The Rockets are one of the faster paced teams in the league and whenever the Grizzles go up against them it is a great spot for guys like Michael Conley and Marc Gasol. They are some of the best producers on the team with highest usage along with upside because of the peripherals they can get in an up paced game. If you are going to play anyone in this game it is Conley and Gasol and I think they are cash game and tournament viable. I prefer other point guards and centers at their price tags but I do think that these two are in play on this slate. If I play any of these Grizzles I would make sure to pair them in tournaments with a piece on Houston because if this stays close I would expect some Houston players to perform well.
Jerrell Martin is a value option that can be used in tournaments if you want exposure to this game at a cheap price tag that has some upside. Other than that it is tough to throw darts here at some of these cheap Memphis players because they are tough to rely on.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -9.0 | Vegas Spread | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.8 | Implied Team Total | 97.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Jerian Grant | Justin Holiday | Paul Zipser | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 21 | 18 | 27 | 13 | DvP | 4 | 5 | 17 | 10 | 16 | |
| DRPM | 0.45 | 0.32 | -0.09 | N/A | 0.24 | DRPM | -0.59 | 2.47 | 0.13 | -1.49 | 1.42 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries None
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,500 | $11,200 | $21,300 | 51.7 | 35.2 | 1.47 | 31.6% | 11 | 0.45 |
| Andre Roberson | $3,200 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 0.47 | 10.2% | 21 | 0.32 |
| Paul George | $8,300 | $7,600 | $15,000 | 34.6 | 33.3 | 1.04 | 24.9% | 18 | -0.09 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $8,000 | $7,100 | $15,200 | 38.1 | 35.1 | 1.08 | 26.3% | 27 | N/A |
| Steven Adams | $7,000 | $6,000 | $12,500 | 35.9 | 32.0 | 1.12 | 13.7% | 13 | 0.24 |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays –
The Thunder draw a bad Bulls team on the second night of a back to back but are still the favorites with a 106.5 team total. Westbrook is always in play and if you have the money pay up for him especially with a guy like Jerian Grant guarding him. I think I prefer some other point guards but if value opens up I could see myself having a lot of interest in Westbrook for cash and tournaments. That price tag is expensive and I do think on any slate he can have a triple double but Anthony and George will certainly eat into his production. Westbrook will be tough to fit with options like Cousins and LBJ on this slate.
Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are both out of play for me on FanDuel at those price tags. On DraftKings, they have more appeal to me for $7600 and $7100. If you want to play these two in this easy matchup, I suggest getting your exposure to them on DraftKings. The discount is too good to pass up and the Bulls are one of the worst teams at defending the three point line this season. This could be the smash Carmelo Anthony spot in tournaments and at $7100 I see a good chance at 40 DraftKings points here. Both George and Anthony are considered cash and tournament options for me.
Chicago Bulls
Notable Injuries Kris Dunn and Paul Zipster(Questionable), Cameron Payne, Zach Lavine, Bobby Portis and NIkola Mirotic)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | $6,500 | $5,800 | $12,000 | 28.9 | 32.2 | 0.90 | 19.3% | 4 | -0.59 |
| Justin Holiday | $6,600 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 28.5 | 36.2 | 0.79 | 20.7% | 5 | 2.47 |
| Paul Zipser | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.2 | 27.8 | 0.66 | 13.6% | 17 | 0.13 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 28.2 | 33.3 | 0.85 | 18.1% | 10 | -1.49 |
| Robin Lopez | $6,400 | $5,800 | $10,500 | 30.4 | 31.9 | 0.95 | 21.1% | 16 | 1.42 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,600 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 18.5 | 26.3 | 0.70 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Denzel Valentine Zipster is out)
Secondary Plays – None
The Bulls are plain and simple a bad basketball team and have a 97.50 implied team total. I don’t hate Grant and Holiday in this matchup and while they seem safe, I just don’t love their upside here at that price. Paul Zipster is considered questionable for this game and if he is out Denzel Valentine looks like a value play for $4600 and $4700 that we won’t want to pass on. Valentine would likely draw the start and play for over 30 minutes and at his price that makes him a cash and tournament option for me. Other than that I am likely going to stay away from the Bulls here because of their total and I could see this game getting out of hand early.
Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.0 | Vegas Spread | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.3 | Implied Team Total | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | Jerryd Bayless | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Dorian Finney-Smith | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 30 | 3 | 20 | 17 | DvP | 15 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 29 | |
| DRPM | N/A | 0.25 | -0.17 | -0.08 | 0.81 | DRPM | N/A | -0.47 | -1.80 | 4.38 | 2.30 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
Notable Injuries Markelle Fultz and Richaun Holmes (Out)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -10.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,200 | $9,100 | $16,900 | 41.7 | 34.5 | 1.21 | 23.2% | 19 | N/A |
| Jerryd Bayless | $4,600 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 19.1 | 29.4 | 0.65 | 15.1% | 30 | 0.25 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.0 | 32.5 | 0.68 | 16.8% | 3 | -0.17 |
| Robert Covington | $6,600 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 28.9 | 28.3 | 1.02 | 18.2% | 20 | -0.08 |
| Joel Embiid | $8,600 | $8,100 | $16,000 | 38.7 | 27.0 | 1.43 | 26.6% | 17 | 0.81 |
Elite Plays – Robert Covington
Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons
The Sixers are favorites here in a game that is projected to be the closest of the night. The more and more I have thought about this I really like the idea of game stacking this one because it has a chance to go to overtime and be competitive down the stretch. On the Sixers side of the ball Ben Simmons is a guy I love but that price tag makes me cringe a little. I can play someone like Blake Griffin instead for a little bit more so I will likely not play Ben Simmons. I understand if you want to in this spot but I can’t play everyone on the slate. If we could just get Joel Embiid to be unleashed and have no minutes restriction no one would be able to stop him and this would be a dream spot. I worry about the Sixers limiting his minutes so for that reason I have to keep Embiid as a secondary play but the second we get no minutes restriction on him I will be locking Embiid in my lineups.
Robert Covington can be scary sometimes but against a team like the Mavericks I think we could have an elite tournament play here. This game flow against the Mavs can lead to a great game environment for him. Close sloppy games are spots we want Covington to roster him in. I also think Covington is viable in cash games too but he does come with some risk.
Dallas Mavericks
Notable Injuries Devin Harris (Questionable), Seth Curry and Josh McRoberts)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.0 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $6,500 | $6,000 | $11,000 | 28.5 | 30.2 | 0.94 | 24.9% | 15 | N/A |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.4 | 35.2 | 0.67 | 15.9% | 27 | -0.47 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 5.0 | 11.9 | 0.42 | 9.7% | 5 | -1.80 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,400 | $5,700 | $11,400 | 28.3 | 35.7 | 0.79 | 23.2% | 9 | 4.38 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,400 | $4,900 | $9,500 | 20.9 | 25.6 | 0.81 | 20.5% | 29 | 2.30 |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,700 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 21.3 | 31.5 | 0.68 | 16.3% | N/A | N/A |
| J.J. Barea | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 25.7 | 22.8 | 1.13 | 28.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Smith Jr. (DraftKings)
Secondary Plays – none
The Dallas side of the ball is not one I am in love with but there are some options that we should not overlook. The main one for me is Dennis Smith Jr. who has a 25% usage and is averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. Smith Jr. draws a matchup against a sixers team where he should be able to have his way with these guards. I like the floor and upside he has in this matchup and is my favorite target on the Mavs side of the ball. Looking at the other options on Dallas I am just not too interested in anyone else and think that we can go to other games on this slate.