NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 21 - Page Two
Charlotte at Brooklyn – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -6.5, 203 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Lin-Lamb-Hairston-Williams-Hawes
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Larkin-Ellington-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
| Charlotte | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.79 | Team Pace | 96.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Jeremy Lamb | P.J. Hairston | Marvin Williams | Spencer Hawes | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Wayne Ellington | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 24 | Opp. Season | 14 | 14 | 20 | 25 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 14 | 1 | Opp. Season | 18 | 11 | 28 | 15 | 8 | |
Charlotte
Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.1 (24 of 30)
The Nets have been a very poor defensive team this year and are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hornets feature a 104.8 team total today, which is 2.8 points higher than their season average. Spencer Hawes has been declared out already, while Courtney Lee could be in the lineup today, which would bump down the likes of Jeremy Lin and Jeremy Lamb.
Elite Plays
While Walker has been playing great lately, his price has risen to a point where he needs about 45-fantasy point in order to reach value. While that is in the realm of possibilities, he is a borderline secondary play today at FanDuel due to his high price, but is a elite play at 700 less at DraftKings as he should have an easy time today in a great matchup against the Nets.
FD — $8,700 — PG
DK — $8,000 — PG
Usage – 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.7
Secondary Plays
Batum had been playing superb basketball prior to the break and although put up a bit of a dud (22 fantasy points) in his first game back, he still saw 36 minutes of court time in the game. He is still underpriced at FanDuel today and makes a great mid-priced option against a very bad defensive squad in the Nets.
FD — $6,800 — SF
DK — $7,300 — SG
Usage – 21.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.3
Brooklyn
Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.9 (20 of 30)
The Hornets are an average defensive squad this year and are ranked between 11th and 20th in all the above defensive categories. This game does feature a decently high total (201’) and should stay pretty close. The Nets have a low projected team total of only 98.3. There are no new injury concerns for the Nets.
Elite Plays
Lopez went crazy in the first game after break. He put up 33 points and eight rebounds in route to a 53.6 fantasy point effort. The results could be similar today against Cody Zeller, Marvin Wiliams and a returning Al Jefferson inside. He makes for a great center play especially at Draftkings where he is priced at $7,400.
FD — $8,500 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
Usage – 25.5
Min/Game — Season: 33.7
Secondary Plays
Young was playing solid basketball prior to the break and came out firing right after as well. He has put up 30+ fantasy points in seven of his last nine games and has played 35+ minutes in five of his last six games as well. He is safe and does feature a 40 point ceiling if he can get going.
FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $6,700 — PF
Usage – 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.7
Indiana at Orlando – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – EVEN SPREAD, 200.5 OVER/UNDER
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Hill-Allen
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Hezonja-Fournier-Frye-Vucevic
| Indiana | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.48 | Team Pace | 96.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Jordan Hill | Lavoy Allen | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Mario Hezonja | Evan Fournier | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 9 | Opp. Season | 7 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 2 | 9 | Opp. Season | 29 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 7 | |
Indiana
Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.3 (18 of 30)
The Magic have been an average defensive squad this year and are ranked between 10th and 18th in all the above defensive categories. This game should stay close throughout as the Pacers are slight one-point underdogs and both teams are projected to score around 100 points. The Pacers come into this game getting C.J. Miles back from his stomach illness, which bumps down Ellis a bit after his big performance without him on Friday. Rodney Stuckey continues to be out.
Elite Plays
While everyone will pay up for LeBron or Durant on the all-day slate, the night slate does not feature those two players. George looks like he may have benefited greatly from the break as he came back to play 34 minutes in route to a 43 point fantasy effort. He has a great matchup against the Magic who are ranked 21st in the league at defending the small forward position.
FD — $8,700 — SF
DK — $8,400 — SF
Usage – 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.7
Still priced lower than he should be fore his recent production at both big sites, Turner makes a solid play for an under 6k guy in this matchup against the Magic. He is coming off a very solid game against the Thunder and if he is going to get 36 minutes again, he should hit value again today.
FD — $5,600 — PF
DK — $5,900 — C
Usage – 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 20.8
Secondary Plays
None
Orlando
Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.4 (10 of 30)
The Pacers are a slightly above average defensive squad this year as they are ranked in the top ten in points allowed and fantasy points allowed as well as are ranked third in the league at defensive efficiency. The Magic features a team total of 101 for this game.
Elite Plays
The guy has simply been on fire recently as he has put up 41+ fantasy points in each of his last three. He has big time upside and his floor is about 30 points each and every night. He is a safe option and is priced very generously at DraftKings where a double center approach looks tempting.
FD — $8,400 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
Usage – 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 32
Oladipo is going to be playing massive minutes for the Magic for the rest of the season and his price is a bit lower than it should get to by the end of the year. He has the best matchup on the Magic side today as the Pacers are ranked 19th at defending shooting guards. With that said, Evan Fournier also makes a decent under the radar play as well as his minutes are clearly guaranteed along with Oladipo’s and should fly passed value today.
FD — $6,500 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SG
Usage – 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.5
Secondary Plays
Gordon has not put up 30+ fantasy points in each of his last four games. The departure of Tobias Harris has opened up some guaranteed minutes for Gordon and his confidence is high after the break’s festivities. He doesn’t have the greatest matchup and his price has gotten to a point where he needs 30 fantasy points to hit value, so he is not the great value play he was a few weeks ago, but is still in play today.
FD — $6,000 — PF
DK — $6,200 — PF
Usage – 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 21.9
Philadelphia at Dallas – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -10, 203.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Grant-Noel-Okafor
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
| Philadelphia | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.95 | Team Pace | 96.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Nik Stauskas | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 8 | Opp. Season | 24 | 17 | 27 | 28 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 26 | 7 | 26 | 21 | Opp. Season | 19 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | |
Philadelphia
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.0 (16 of 30)
The Mavericks are an average defensive squad and are ranked in the middle of the league in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The 76ers have one of the lowest team totals on the board today (96.8) and are big ten point underdogs to the Mavericks.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
It is really hard to trust any of the 76ers with such a low team total today. I can see taking tournament flyers on Ishmael Smith or Robert Covington, but they are all risky with so many games on tap and really facing the only blowout situation of the day. Nerlens Noel is one guy that could be used for tournaments as he does have big time upside and has seen his minutes increase recently.
FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $6,600 — PF
Usage – 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 29.4
Dallas
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.3 (27 of 30)
One of the worst teams in the league is also one of the worst defensive teams in the league as well. The 76ers are ranked 19th or worse in all the above defensive categories and are 27th in the league in fantasy points allowed per game. The Dallas Mavericks feature the third highest team total of the day at 106.8, which is 5.8 points higher than their season average. Deron Williams is currently questionable for the game today and Devin Harris is probable. If Deron Williams cannot go, J.J. Barea and Raymond Felton would get a solid boost and if we get the news on, which one starts, they would be a great value point guard on the night slate.
Elite Plays
Parsons has been playing great lately and has put up 40 fantasy points in two of his last three. The blowout possibility makes him a secondary play, but with not a ton of options on the night slate, Parsons does make for a safe play at the limited small forward position.
FD — $6,800 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
Usage – 19.0
Min/Game — Season: 28.5
Secondary Plays
Looking at Dirk’s game logs is a bit shocking. He fantasy totals have been down, but he has played 35+ minutes in four of his last five games. With those minutes and at his price, especially at DraftKings ($6,000) he could make a decent tournament play with great upside due to the cake matchup against Philly.
FD — $6,600 — PF
DK — $6,000 — PF
Usage – 22.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.1
L.A. Lakers at Chicago – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -7, 206.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Williams-Brown-Nance-Hibbert
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-McDermott-Mirotic-Gasol
| L.A. Lakers | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.31 | Team Pace | 98.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Louis Williams | Anthony Brown | Larry Nance | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Doug McDermott | Nikola Mirotic | Pau Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 15 | 25 | 18 | 27 | Opp. Season | 30 | 28 | 26 | 22 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 16 | Opp. Season | 24 | 17 | 18 | 25 | 26 | |
L.A. Lakers
Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.0 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.9 (26 of 30)
The Bulls have been an average defensive team this year in most of the above categories and have given up 207.9 fantasy points per game for 26th in the league. With that said, the Lakers are seven point underdogs in Chicago tonight and have a total under 100 for this matchup. Kobe Bryant is probable today and should play. If something happens and he has to sit, Louis Williams would get the biggest bump and would be in play at his price point today.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
The Kobe “Goodbye Tour,” continues tonight in Chicago, which actually I think puts Kobe in play as he has actually been pretty consistent over the last two weeks or so. 25+ shots is not out of the question and if they are falling, he does feature 45+ point upside. Tons of risk is attached to Kobe each night so he is a tournament play only, but the absence of Jimmy Butler on the other side makes his job a bit easier tonight.
FD — $6,600 — SG
DK — $5,900 — SG
Usage – 29.8
Min/Game — Season: 29.3
Randle is in play tonight as the Bulls’ inside defense has been very poor this year. Randle is seeing more consistent minutes and has been over 24 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games.
FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $6,100 — PF
Usage – 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 27.4
Chicago
Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.3 (30 of 30)
The Lakers are the dream matchup for the Bulls today as they are 30th in the league in fantasy points allowed per game and are ranked 27th or worse in all the above defensive categories. The Bulls have a projected team total of 106.8, which is 5.3 points higher than their season average. Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic and Joakim Noah all continue to be out for the Bulls.
Elite Plays
Jump on the Rose bandwagon now as he is playing the best basketball I have seen in a while. This does happen to Rose usually once or twice a year where he looks incredible and then something devastating usually happens. While we wait for that, he is priced low for his production at the moment and should drive at will against the Lakers’ defense today. He is a great mid-ranged option and will likely be on of the most popular point guards on the late slate.
FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
Usage – 26.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.2
Revenge game? Pau should have his way inside against this Lakers’ defense and is going to have to in order to pay off his big salary right now. There is enough value on the late slate to pay up for him and a 45-50 point effort is not out of the question assuming this stays close in the fourth.
FD — $8,900 — C
DK — $8,500 — C
Usage – 23.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.9
Secondary Plays
A lot of the Bulls are in play today and while I think Taj Gibson is a decent play, I would rather save the salary and go with Portis who is playing close to the same amount of minutes and is looking to score when on the court.
FD — $4,100 — PF
DK — $4,500 — PF
Usage – 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 16.7
E’Twaun Moore
Another value play from the Bulls would be Moore who killed a lot of lineups on the first night back from break, but came back on Friday to have a solid game in 35 minutes of court time. I don’t like his price at Draftkings, but is a solid play at Fanduel to save some cap if you need.
FD — $4,300 — SG
DK — $5,200 — SG
Usage – 15.0
Min/Game — Season: 19.1
Utah at Portland – 09:00 PM
- Vegas Line –
- Utah Proj. Starters – Neto-Hood-Hayward-Lyles-Withey
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
| Utah | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.11 | Team Pace | 97.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Raulzinho Neto | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Trey Lyles | Jeff Withey | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 18 | 5 | 20 | 19 | Opp. Season | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 23 | 2 | 28 | 3 | Opp. Season | 26 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 22 | |
Utah
Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.2 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.3 (13 of 30)
The Blazers have turned themselves into an average defensive squad at this point in the season, as they have played much better over the last month or two. This game features the lowest total of the day at 198 and the Jazz have a projected team total of 97.5 for fourth lowest on the day.
Elite Plays
After having a horrible game on Thursday due to some early foul trouble, Favors exploded for a 48 point fantasy effort against the Celtics on Friday. Favors gets a great matchup today against the Blazers as they are ranked 20th in the league at defending the power forward position and he is priced at a very manageable point across the industry.
FD — $7,400 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
Usage – 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.1
Secondary Plays
Rudy is playing some of his most consistent basketball of the season right now. He has been over 30 fantasy points in each of his last six games and is priced as a solid mid-range option at the center position that is dominated by 8k guys tonight. The under $7,000 salary over at DraftKings is very hard to ignore.
FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
Usage – 13.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.1
Rodney Hood is in play today, but saw his minutes drop a bit last game with the return of Trey Burke. The guy who didn’t see his minutes drop was Raul Neto who played fantastic and could be a deep value punt if you want. The safer option though would be Hayward who is about as consistent as they come and will get a nice PACE up game against the Blazers today.
FD — $7,600 — SF
DK — $7,000 — SF
Usage – 25.2
Min/Game — Season: 36.1
Portland
Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.4 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 184.1 (2 of 30)
The Jazz are never a team we want to target to often for fantasy terms as they are ranked 3rd and 2nd in points allowed and fantasy points allowed respectively. The Blazers are slight favorites today, but only feature a team total of 100.5, which is 2.6 points lower than their season average.
Elite Plays
He needs to be mentioned after that massive performance against the Warriors. The matchup is not ideal today, but if he is looking to finally take over this team like we thought he would all year with all the departures of the other stars, we could begin to see Lillard go on a mission to crush the league. He has scored at least 30 real points in each of his last three games and while the matchup is tough, we just saw Isaiah Thomas have a massive game against this same Jazz squad. Getting some exposure to him is going to be a good option for tournaments, but I don’t think he is a must play for cash games due to the low total and his raise in price as well.
FD — $9,600 — PG
DK — $9,600 — PG
Usage – 31.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.0
Secondary Plays
None