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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 17th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2016-01-19 18:53:01

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Phoenix at Minnesota – 03:30 PM

Phoenix Minnesota
phoenixnba Vegas Total 205 minnesotanba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 100.93 Team Pace 97.34
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Brandon Knight Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Tyson Chandler Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 21 16 19 8 15 Opp. Season 29 28 27 16 7
Opp. Last 7 22 15 28 15 4 Opp. Season 28 28 30 25 29

Phoenix (Record: 13-28 Away: 4-17)

Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.8 (15 of 30)

The Timberwolves have been a below average defensive squad this season. They are ranked in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed, points allowed, rebounding differential and defensive efficiency. This game features an overall total of 205.5 and a very close spread so it should stay close and the players should play a full allotment of minutes. The Suns are projected to score 101.0 points today, which is slightly below their season average of 102.5. Both Ronnie Price and Alex Len have been ruled out for the matchup tonight.

Elite Plays

Devin Booker

It is hard to understand why after getting two quick fouls on Friday, that Booker didn’t see the floor the rest of the first half. He did play 22 minutes in the second half and finished with just 12 fantasy points. Many will be off of him after that performance, but he should be locked into about 30 minutes today in a great matchup against the Timberwolves who have really struggled to defend the guard position this year. While his price has gone up a on DK, he still just needs about 20 fantasy points to hit value on FD and is an elite value play there.

FD — $4,100 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SG
Usage – 17.4
Min/Game – 18.6

Secondary Plays

Brandon Knight

Knight is continuing to play heavy minutes as he has played 37+ in his last four starts. Yet, his production has not been where he is expected to be with the absence of Eric Bledsoe. At some point he is going to go off for a 45+ fantasy points and he does have a solid matchup today against Rubio and the Timberwolves’ 21st ranked defense against points guards.

FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
Usage – 25.5
Min/Game – 36.1

P.J. Tucker

With the injuries, the role players for the Suns have all had to step up and play a few more minutes. The problem is those minutes seem to have been equally distributed between the likes of Warren, Tucker, Leuer and now Morris is in the mix as well. None of them are high upside plays, but Tucker is about the safest of the bunch with his minutes, production and matchup today.

FD — $4,500 — SF
DK — $4,700 — SF
Usage – 11.6
Min/Game – 28.2

Minnesota (Record: 12-29 Home: 7-12)

Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.3 (22 of 30)

This game is not going to feature a lot of defensive prowess, as the Suns have been one of the worst defenses in the league this year. They are ranked 29th in the league in points allowed and 26th in the league in defensive efficiency. The Timberwolves are small three and a half point favorites today and have a projected team to score 104.5 points today, which is the third highest total of the day and almost six points higher than their season average. Kevin Martin is currently questionable for the game today. His absence would give a slight boost to Zach Lavine’s minutes.

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins

The safest Timberwolves player continues to be Wiggins. He does not feature a very high ceiling, but he is locked into 35+ minutes per game and he has scored at least 21 points in each of his last five games. He has a solid matchup against the Suns today and should have an easy time reaching value for his price.

FD — $6,700 — SF
DK — $6,600 — SG
Usage – 26.6
Min/Game – 35.0

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

It is hard to suggest Rubio as a play lately, but the matchup is too good to pass up a mention. This is the type of game where he could rack up the points with peripheral stats in order to reach value. He should also be low owned as most people will be on Westbrook and the value in Miami.

FD — $7,000 — PG
DK — $6,700 — PG
Usage – 19.8
Min/Game – 30.3

Shabazz Muhammad

Especially if you are playing the early only slate at FD, you are going to need some value in your lineup today. Shabazz played 34 minutes on Friday and was on the court for the second most minutes behind Wiggins The fantasy points were a bit of a disappointment, but the matchup today is much better and if he receives close to 35 minutes again, he could be one of the better values outside of Udrih and Johnson.

FD — $3,800 — SF
DK — $4,200 — SF
Usage – 19.3
Min/Game – 19.2

Dallas at San Antonio – 07:00 PM

Dallas San Antonio
dallasnba Vegas Total 194 sanantonionba Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd 11.5 Vegas Sprd -11.5
Team Proj. 91.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 97.07 Team Pace 95.85
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter J.J. Barea Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 5 1 1 1 2 Opp. Season 19 3 14 25 6
Opp. Last 7 3 4 2 3 16 Opp. Season 17 12 27 11 2

Dallas (Record: 23-18 Away: 12-11)

San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 89.7 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.5 (2 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 175.3 (1 of 30)

San Antonio has one of the best defensive squads in the NBA. They are ranked first in the league in points allowed, fantasy points allowed, and defensive efficiency this year. The Mavericks are 11’ point underdogs here today and have a projected team total of 91.5, which is by far the lowest team total of the day. It is tough to ignore a team completely on a five game slate, but between the way Dallas spreads the ball around, the matchup and the Vegas projections, they are all tough plays today outside of Zaza Pachulia for a mid-priced center.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

San Antonio (Record: 35-6 Home: 23-0 )

Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.2 (16 of 30)

Dallas has been an average defensive squad this year. They are ranked between 15th and 17th in the league in points/fantasy points allowed as well as defensive efficiency. The Spurs are projected to score 103.0 points today, but are also in the biggest blowout situation of the slate as well as they are playing at home where they are 23-0.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

Leonard is coming off a great performance against Lebron and Cavs where he put up a double double in forty minutes of playtime in way to a 41.5 point fantasy performance. He is the most consistent option on this Spurs squad and his price has come down to sub 8k over at FD. Paul George has the best matchup of the stud small forwards today, but it is really tough to ignore the discounted price on Leonard as you are getting $1000 in savings over at FD.

FD — $7,800 — SF
DK — $8,200 — SF
Usage – 22.9
Min/Game – 33.3

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge has not been a very popular fantasy option in his first year with the Spurs. Yet, there is a lot left to be desired in terms of fantasy options at sites like FD where you have to start two guys. Aldridge is one of the safer plays on the slate and is in play against the Mavs tonight.

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $7,000 — PF
Usage – 23.3
Min/Game – 29.8

Tony Parker

Parker is worth a mention here due to his recent performances. He has scored 38.8 and 39.3 fantasy points over his last two games and is fairly priced for his production, especially over at Draftkings.

FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $5,500 — PG
Usage – 21.8
Min/Game – 27.3

Miami at Oklahoma City – 07:00 PM

Miami Oklahoma City
miaminba Vegas Total oklahomacitynba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 94.50 Team Pace 98.88
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Chris Andersen Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 23 17 9 6 3 Opp. Season 3 2 16 3 9
Opp. Last 7 11 26 13 1 8 Opp. Season 27 6 5 28 28

Miami (Record: 23-17 Away: 8-9)

Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.7 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.7 (9 of 30)

Oklahoma has been a slightly above average defense. They are ranked in the top ten in the league in fantasy points allowed, defensive efficiency and are the top rebounding differential team in the league. This will be a pace up game for Heat today, which gives a small boost to Miami. Currently, Goran Dragic has been ruled out with a mild calf strain, Josh McRoberts and Chris Anderson have been ruled out, while Dwyane Wade is a game-time call. If Wade is out, give a big boost to Gerald Green who would likely get the start and would become a solid value play today.

Elite Plays

Beno Udrih

Udrih had a great start against Denver on Friday. He played 37 minutes and had 33.1 fantasy points during that time. The matchup on Friday was a bit more ideal than against Westbrook, but if he is getting 35+ minutes, he makes a solid play at close to minimum price.

FD — $3,800 — PG
DK — $4,000 — PG
Usage – 16.5
Min/Game – 15.3

Chris Bosh

There are not a whole lot of options at the power forward position today, putting Bosh at the top of the list as far as projected production. He would also get a boost if Wade is out and is by far the safest option at the position today even in a tough matchup against Ibaka.

FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
Usage – 22.8
Min/Game – 33.6

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

Another position that lacks a ton of options is the center position and we may be forced into chasing the points today after his triple-double, 62.4-fantasy point performance on Friday, The matchup is not great, but if he is to get minutes in the 30s again, he could have another high scoring game.

FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
Usage – 17.6
Min/Game – 29.1

Tyler Johnson

To get some of the big guys in, playing both Udrih and Johnson is not a horrible idea, especially at DK where Johnson is listed at shooting guard. He played 31 minutes on Friday and had 26.8 fantasy points. He should return similar value today as he will be tasked with leading the second team again today. If Wade is out again, Johnson and Udrih get an even bigger boost.

FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $4,600 — SG
Usage – 17.1
Min/Game – 22.5

Oklahoma City (Record: 29-12 Home: 19-5)

Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.0 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.4 (4 of 30)

The Heat are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA this year. They are ranked in the top five in the league in points allowed, fantasy points allowed as well as defensive efficiency. The Thunder are the second biggest favorites on the board today at -9’ and have a projected team total of 105.0 for the second highest on the slate.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

Westbrook is by far the highest projected point guard on the slate. According to Rotogrinders projections, he has a full 16 points higher projection of points than the next highest point guard today. He is expensive, but there is so much value that he should be able to find his way into your lineups with ease. Even though the matchup is not ideal against a slow paced Heat team, the lack of other options makes Westbrook an elite play today.

FD — $10,400 — PG
DK — $10,600 — PG
Usage – 34.4
Min/Game – 33.8

Secondary Plays

Kevin Durant

Durant clearly needs a mention too today as the two headed monster of the Thunder continues to play well. Durant is slightly cheaper than Westbrook and that is due to the upside difference between the two. Yet, Durant is good for a 40 fantasy point night regardless of matchup. If this game stays close, both players should come close to value.

FD — $9,900 — SF
DK — $9,700 — PF
Usage – 27.7
Min/Game – 35.7

Indiana at Denver – 08:00 PM

Indiana Denver
indiananba Vegas Total denvernba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 99.31 Team Pace 97.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Jordan Hill Lavoy Allen Proj Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Jusuf Nurkic
Opp. Season 26 29 11 23 23 Opp. Season 4 24 3 14 20
Opp. Last 7 13 10 9 27 30 Opp. Season 15 24 8 10 27

Indiana (Record: 22-18 Away: 9-12)

Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.2 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.2 (21 of 30)

Denver is been a below average defensive squad this year. They are in the bottom third of the league in points allowed, fantasy points allowed as well as defensive efficiency. The Pacers have a 103.8 projected team total, which is slightly above their season average of 102.1. Rodney Stuckey has already been ruled out which gives a minutes boost to both Monte Ellis and George Hill. The news to keep an eye on is the status of George Hill as he did not travel with the team and is not sure if he will play today. If he is out, give a big boost to both Ellis and C.J. Miles as they will be forced into heavy minutes.

Elite Plays

Paul George

George is in a great spot today to have a monster game against this Denver squad. The injuries are plentiful around him, which means he will be forced into huge minutes and a huge usage rate, especially if Hill is out as well. He is priced very fairly across the industry and has a great matchup against the Nuggets. All signs point to a huge game out of George today.

FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $9,000 — SF
Usage – 29.6
Min/Game – 35.6

Monte Ellis

Ellis is going to have to take over point guard duties, assuming Hill is out. The matchup is perfect for him today and if he plays 35+ minutes, should easily reach value against Denver in what should be an up and down game.

FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $6,100 — PG
Usage – 21.1
Min/Game – 33.5

Secondary Plays

C.J. Miles

Miles is a decent play even if Hil is playing today, but makes for a great value play if Hill is out. He would be in line for big minutes an the matchup lines up perfectly for Miles’ skillset of launching as many shots as possible in the minutes he plays.

FD — $4,400 — SF
DK — $5,100 — SF
Usage – 19.9
Min/Game – 27.0

Denver (Record: 15-25 Home: 8-13)

Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.5 (8 of 30)

The Pacers are an above average team that are ranked in the top ten in both points and fantasy points allowed. They are also ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are small underdogs today and have a projected team total of 100.8, which is actually more than two points higher than their season average. Jameer Nelson is currently questionable with the left wrist injury he suffered on Friday. If he is out, bump Emmanieul Mudiay to a secondary play as he should get the starting nod and is cheap across the sites. J.J. Hickson’s status is a bit of a question too. If he is out, Darrell Arthur has been playing well in his absence and would be a secondary play as well.

Elite Plays

Danilo Gallinari

With the tough matchup on Friday, Gallo really struggled and only had 15.8 fantasy points. The good news is that he still continued to play huge minutes and has now played at least 34 minutes in each of his seven games since returning from injury. He will take double-digit shots and will play a key role in the Nuggets staying in this game tonight.

FD — $7,000 — SF
DK — $7,100 — SF
Usage – 21.5
Min/Game – 34.7

Secondary Plays

Gary Harris

Harris is worth a mention today as he is getting a ton of minutes (36+ in last three) and has taken 14 shots now in each of his last two games. The ceiling is low, but he is another value that will have lowest ownership tonight.

FD — $4,300 — SG
DK — $4,100 — SG
Usage – 15.9
Min/Game – 30.4

Houston at L.A. Lakers – 09:30 PM

Houston L.A. Lakers
houstonnba Vegas Total lalakersnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 99.04 Team Pace 98.69
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard Proj Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Anthony Brown Larry Nance Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 25 25 21 28 Opp. Season 13 21 28 30 14
Opp. Last 7 8 20 21 5 22 Opp. Season 12 17 20 2 15

Houston (Record: 21-20 Away: 8-10)

Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.32 (30 of 30)

The Lakers are an awful defensive team and one of the best to pick on for daily fantasy purposes. This Rockets squad are heavy nine point favorites and have the highest projected team total of the day at 108.5. This is a full 5.1 points higher than their season average, which is a big time boost up to the Rockets tonight. As long as this game stays close, it should be full of solid fantasy performances. Dwight Howard is currently questionable for this game with an oblique strain. If he can’t play, Terrence Jones and Clint Capela get solid minute bumps and are in play. Patrick Beverley is also questionable today too, but his minutes would likely be split between Terry and Lawson.

Elite Plays

James Harden

Harden takes the court tonight as arguably the top option of the slate at any position. He gets one of the worst defenses in the league in the Lakers who are also ranked 21st in the league at defending the shooting guard position. Add that to the fact that Dwight may not suit up and it looks like Harden should be in line for a monster performance in LA.

FD — $9,500 — SG
DK — $9,900 — SG
Usage – 32.3
Min/Game – 37.7

Secondary Plays

If Dwight Howard is able to play tonight, he is a top option at the center position. If he has to sit, it gives a big boost to Terrence Jones who would make a great value play as well as a boost to Capela. Both would be in play for their price and matchup, with Jones having more upside.

L.A. Lakers (Record: 9-33 Home: 5-12)

Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.2 (27 of 30)

The Rockets are a well-below average defensive squad as well. They are ranked in the bottom third of the league in all the above categories. This Lakers squad has a projected team total of 99.5 tonight, for third lowest on the slate, yet a full three points higher than their season average. Kobe’s status is currently questionable and had his Achilles. “jam” up on his on Friday. Larry Nance is also doubtful tonight with Bass looking unlikely again as well.

Elite Plays

Louis Williams

Louis is the guy on this Lakers team right now that is in play regardless of all the injuries. His price has risen, but has big time upside and becomes an elite play if Kobe cannot suit up tonight.

FD — $6,000 — SG
DK — $6,400 — SG
Usage – 21.9
Min/Game – 39.0

Secondary Plays

With all the injury doubts it is hard to pinpoint plays tonight. If Kobe is out, D’Angelo Russell and Clarkson get solid minute boosts with Clarkson having more upside, although Russell being cheaper. Also, if Larry Nance has to sit tonight, Julius Randle would be forced into a heavier role. Earlier in the season, Randle had some solid games in the starting role and this Rockets team has struggled at defending inside.

About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.