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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 22nd

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-01-23 01:35:03

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic – 12:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Orlando Magic
Article Image Vegas Total 224.0 Article Image Vegas Total 224.0
Vegas Spread -13.0 Vegas Spread 13.0
Team Total 118.5 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- -0.5 Pace +/- 4.4
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton C.J. Watson Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 28 15 22 12 27 Adj. DvP 15 23 7 7 25
DRPM -0.51 0.10 -1.01 0.69 1.93 DRPM -0.18 -1.10 1.71 3.84 2.93

Golden State Warriors

Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have a short four-game slate on our hands because….FOOTBALL! DraftKings is breaking it down into two slates and not providing an all-day slate, while FanDuel is providing an all-day, early only, and a main. I personally don’t like playing in an all-day slate in NBA that starts so early, and FanDuel makes it easier to skip by have terrible payouts. Last night was pretty solid, and it’s so awesome to see my followers winning.

Today, we begin with the Warriors traveling to Orlando to face the Magic in the early game. David West is the only injured Warriors player. This should lead to some extra JaVale McGee, but more importantly it’ll lead to Zaza Pachulia getting over 20 minutes. The DvP numbers against the Magic are skewed because Bismack Biyombo started for most of the season. Pachulia is an elite punt option on DraftKings, where his salary is only $3.8k, and considering the lack of elite options at the position, Pachulia makes a lot of sense on a short slate. Nikola Vucevic is the only truly playable big man in the early slate, and honestly, he’s not even that playable with his team projected to lose by 13 points.

With David West out, Draymond Green should also see some extended run. If the Magic are able to keep it close for some reason, Draymond Green will play over 35 minutes. He played 33 minutes in the blowout of the Rockets on Friday, and he’s proven that he can make value even when he does not play over 35 minutes. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s center eligible on DraftKings. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson are also in play but do carry some risk since the Magic are not exactly an elite team. The small forward position looks a little bit more reliable than point guard today, so I’d side with playing Curry over Durant. Andre Iguodala is a free space as a minimum-priced punt play on FanDuel, and he can fill in where you don’t use Durant. This is not to suggest that Durant is a bad play, as he easily fits with all the value that is already available.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,000 $8,700 1.18 33.6 -0.9 39.8 1.8 29.8% 1.1% 28 -0.51
Klay Thompson $6,200 $6,300 0.86 34.3 -2.5 29.4 -4.1 23.6% 0.4% 15 0.10
Kevin Durant $10,600 $10,300 1.36 34.4 -2.3 46.9 7.5 27.8% 0.3% 22 -1.01
Draymond Green $8,200 $8,000 1.12 33.1 1.6 37.2 7.0 19.0% -0.5% 12 0.69
Zaza Pachulia $4,200 $3,800 0.91 18.6 1.4 17.0 4.7 14.7% 3.1% 27 1.93
Andre Iguodala $4,000 $3,700 0.68 25.1 0.3 17.0 6.0 11.7% 0.1% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala, Zaza Pachulia

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson

Orlando Magic

The Magic come into after blowing the Bucks out on Friday. Elfrid Payton led the way and played over 37 minutes. He’ll be a solid PG2 option on FanDuel but not really as necessary on DraftKings. I’d rather play Deron Williams or one of the cheap Lakers guards over Payton, though. With Evan Fournier and Jodie Meeks out, D.J. Augustin made the most of his time against the Bucks. C.J. Watson got the start and played 30 minutes. At time of writing, there isn’t any info about a starting lineup, and while Meeks could start again today, it also would not surprise me to see another lineup change. Aaron Gordon has been more consistent since he’s started playing over 30 minutes, but he still carries too much risk for my liking in this matchup. Bismack Biyombo went off against the Bucks, but I’m not sure he can replicate that here. Uncle Jeff Green also did his thing against the Bucks and will be a viable low-end option where he’s cheap.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,200 $6,100 0.94 28.7 1.5 26.9 5.2 25.4% 3.3% 15 -0.18
C.J. Watson $4,000 $3,300 0.52 12.6 8.5 6.5 3.4 14.7% -1.7% 23 -1.10
Aaron Gordon $5,200 $5,700 0.78 27.3 2.9 21.3 5.7 19.6% 0.3% 7 1.71
Serge Ibaka $6,100 $6,000 0.94 30.6 -4.8 28.8 -4.5 20.3% -0.1% 7 3.84
Nikola Vucevic $6,700 $6,600 1.14 28.2 -2.6 32.3 -7.3 25.1% -1.0% 25 2.93
D.J. Augustin $3,600 $4,000 0.73 20.5 6.5 14.9 3.2 22.2% 0.0% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – D.J. Augustin, Jeff Green

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks – 3:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Dallas Mavericks
Article Image Vegas Total 206.0 Article Image Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 100.3 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- -5.4 Pace +/- 1.7
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Nick Young Brandon Ingram Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Deron Williams Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 2 14 4 10 11 Adj. DvP 27 21 26 30 29
DRPM -1.56 -0.34 -0.06 -0.82 0.17 DRPM -2.05 -2.11 -2.85 0.22 -0.16

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers lost D’Angelo Russell in the first minute of Friday’s victory over the Pacers. He’ll be out 1-2 weeks with an MCL sprain and a calf strain, and I’d expect Jose Calderon to start in place of him in this game. Calderon is cheap and could get the job done, but he lacks elite upside for tournaments. Nick Young, Jordan Clarkson, and Lou Williams are the guys we want to look at. Sweet Lou has been hot and will be the chalk at the position. He should be a strong play at shooting guard while, you can use Jordan Clarkson at point guard. Nick Young is also an option and will likely be the lowest-owned out of the three guards.

Luol Deng is being listed as questionable, and Larry Nance is expected to play limited minutes. If Deng plays, that would really hurt the upside of Brandon Ingram, who has been playing out of his mind lately. It’s so beautiful to see a young player grow in front of our eyes, and Ingram is proving that he is a force to be reckoned with. I would rather play Kevin Durant and/or Harrison Barnes at the position due to the possibility that Deng could be back. Deng was able to go through a full practice on Saturday, so his prospects of playing are high. Julius Randle has been slumping over the last four games, but since the position lacks depth, he’ll be a viable option; I’d rather just pay up for Draymond Green.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jordan Clarkson $4,400 $4,800 0.79 27.3 3.6 21.5 2.4 23.6% 0.4% 2 -1.56
Nick Young $4,000 $4,400 0.72 26.4 1.2 19.0 4.2 18.7% 1.9% 14 -0.34
Brandon Ingram $4,400 $4,900 0.60 27.9 4.7 16.7 9.5 15.9% 2.4% 4 -0.06
Julius Randle $6,500 $6,800 1.00 29.4 1.0 29.4 -6.1 23.3% -2.9% 10 -0.82
Timofey Mozgov $3,700 $3,100 0.71 21.1 -2.1 14.9 -0.5 16.6% -0.4% 11 0.17
Lou Williams $5,100 $5,600 1.06 24.3 4.8 25.7 12.2 30.5% -1.0% 14 N/A
Jordan Clarkson $4,400 $4,800 0.79 27.3 3.6 21.5 2.4 23.6% 0.4% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson

Secondary Plays – Nick Young, Julius Randle

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs will be hosting the Lakers after losing an overtime game to the Jazz. Deron Williams and Harrison Barnes are my two favorite options on the Mavs. With J.J. Barea out, Deron Williams should easily play over 30 minutes. Dirk Nowitzki should also play well, but his minutes are capped, meaning his ceiling is, as well. Seth Curry likes to light up the Lakers (career-high 23 points in a game against them in November), and he’s a cheap option at shooting guard. Wesley Matthews is slightly more expensive than Curry but is also just as good of an option. Curry likely has more upside since he is cheaper. Dwight Powell picked up some extra run since Nowitzki was limited on the second night of a back-to-back.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $6,300 $5,900 0.86 30.4 1.9 26.3 0.5 27.6% -2.3% 27 -2.05
Seth Curry $4,000 $4,300 0.69 26.6 4.0 18.3 3.3 19.3% -0.6% 21 -2.11
Wesley Matthews $5,400 $5,000 0.67 35.8 2.8 23.8 0.3 20.5% -4.8% 26 -2.85
Harrison Barnes $6,500 $6,200 0.84 35.9 1.4 30.3 -4.5 25.2% -2.6% 30 0.22
Dirk Nowitzki $5,500 $5,500 0.95 25.2 2.0 24.0 -0.5 25.8% -1.3% 29 -0.16

Elite Plays – Deron Williams, Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry

Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki

Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Toronto Raptors
Article Image Vegas Total 220.5 Article Image Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 116.0
Pace +/- -0.7 Pace +/- 3.2
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 6 12 23 7 Adj. DvP 11 18 25 18 19
DRPM 0.85 -1.85 0.16 0.92 -0.45 DRPM -0.73 -2.16 -1.03 -0.75 1.65

Phoenix Suns

The Suns continue their road trip today in Toronto. Devin Booker has been playing really well over his last six games, but I’m concerned with the prospects of the Suns in general on the second night of a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. While Devin Booker is only a second-year player, he relies heavily on scoring for his fantasy output, and that might not be there in this game. Eric Bledsoe has also been playing extremely well, but he does not have elite upside at this salary. Tyson Chandler continued his strong play, but the lack of offensive game worries me. With Karl-Anthony Towns on the slate, I’d rather pay up at center than get stuck with Chandler, who could play limited minutes on the second night of a back-to-back.

Marquese Chriss played well against the Knicks, but he rarely plays over 22 minutes. He might get some garbage time run, but that’s tough to trust in your lineups. Alex Len and Brandon Knight could also pick up some extra minutes, but it looks like a prime spot to avoid them. P.J. Tucker and T.J. Warren keep alternating between good and bad games, and Earl Watson is simply going to play the hot hand in this scenario, which is too unpredictable for fantasy purposes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,300 $8,400 1.11 32.9 5.0 36.4 10.2 29.8% 0.3% 7 0.85
Devin Booker $6,500 $6,900 0.82 34.2 5.8 28.1 6.1 27.7% -0.1% 6 -1.85
T.J. Warren $4,600 $4,900 0.76 29.4 3.0 22.5 -1.1 20.2% -5.6% 12 0.16
Marquese Chriss $3,600 $3,200 0.73 18.0 1.8 13.1 -0.3 18.9% -2.8% 23 0.92
Tyson Chandler $5,700 $5,500 0.87 28.0 2.6 24.4 11.2 11.2% 6.4% 7 -0.45
P.J. Tucker $4,000 $3,900 0.63 27.4 1.4 17.2 4.8 11.2% -1.3% 12 N/A

Elite Plays –

Secondary Plays – Tyson Chandler, Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors get a nice pace-up game tonight at home. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan will be elite plays at their respective positions, and both should be able to make salary-based expectations. There’s not much more left to say regarding these two because you know what you’re getting, but one point in their favor is that both have shown recently that they are not blowout-proof. This is the Suns, so if a blowout does occur, Cory Joseph could be in play as a punt at point guard. Bear in mind, though, that he really only exceeds value greatly when he’s given over 24 minutes. Norman Powell started on Saturday since Lucas Nogueira was in the concussion protocol. I don’t have an update yet on the status of Nogueira or Patterson, so you’ll want to follow our DFS alerts page to get the latest updates. Terrence Ross has really secure minutes lately, and he’s my favorite cheap play from the Raptors. DeMarre Carroll is also in play but is not a lock for minutes. Jared Sullinger is coming around and played 17 minutes on Friday. No one will be using him, and I won’t be either unless we get an announcement from the team that he’ll see over 20 minutes today.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $8,500 1.07 37.2 -0.1 39.9 -3.7 26.7% 3.5% 11 -0.73
DeMar DeRozan $9,000 $8,300 1.15 35.5 -0.3 40.9 -0.6 34.4% 0.5% 18 -2.16
Norman Powell $3,500 $3,200 0.72 14.6 6.1 10.5 -2.3 17.7% -4.3% 25 -1.03
DeMarre Carroll $4,000 $4,600 0.70 26.4 -1.6 18.4 -6.8 15.5% -3.1% 18 -0.75
Jonas Valanciunas $5,600 $5,800 0.96 27.0 1.3 26.0 -2.1 18.4% -2.7% 19 1.65
Terrence Ross $3,800 $3,700 0.77 22.1 7.5 16.9 2.2 18.7% -3.5% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar Derozan, Terrence Ross

Secondary Plays – Cory Joseph

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 7:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Minnesota Timberwolves
Article Image Vegas Total 221.0 Article Image Vegas Total 221.0
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 108.3 Team Total 112.8
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- 2.2
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Kris Dunn Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 4 5 5 17 Adj. DvP 29 29 15 21 20
DRPM -0.15 -3.19 -2.25 2.93 -0.90 DRPM -2.38 -0.41 -0.71 -0.66 1.41

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets travel to Minnesota after dominating the Clippers last night. Nikola Jokic was only able to play 21 minutes after picking up two early fouls against the Clippers. With he big lead, they did not really need him, but hopefully his low fantasy output will result in lower ownership today. Just to remind us of how immense his upside is, Jokic still managed to put up 37 DraftKings points in just 21 minutes. As always, if he gets full run today, he should put up massive numbers. Emmanuel Mudiay aggravated a back injury and will not be playing in his contest. Expect Jameer Nelson to start and Jamal Murray to be used as the backup. Of the two, Nelson is the cash game play, while Murray is the tournament option. Will Barton has been playing heavy minutes in the absence of Gary Harris, but as I mentioned yesterday, his upside is considerably lower with Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler back in the lineup. With Darrell Arthur also back, Kenneth Faried’s upside is limited.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,900 $4,700 0.78 28.9 1.3 22.6 5.9 24.1% -2.3% 9 -0.15
Will Barton $5,700 $6,500 0.85 28.9 2.6 24.7 5.7 21.9% 0.3% 4 -3.19
Danilo Gallinari $5,900 $5,700 0.78 34.3 5.4 26.6 0.5 19.2% -3.1% 5 -2.25
Kenneth Faried $5,400 $5,600 1.03 22.1 7.2 22.7 4.2 17.2% -0.9% 5 2.93
Nikola Jokic $10,200 $9,100 1.22 25.7 10.0 31.5 23.1 23.2% 7.2% 17 -0.90
Wilson Chandler $5,700 $5,900 0.91 30.8 -7.3 28.0 -2.1 23.1% 3.6% 5 N/A
Jameer Nelson $3,800 $3,600 0.71 24.7 1.8 17.4 3.7 20.4% -3.7% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Jameer Nelson

Secondary Plays – Jamal Murray, Danilo Gallinari

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ricky Rubio is out due to personal reasons for this game. No, he has not been traded, but that should happen soon enough. Since I’m writing this well over 12 hours before this game is set to tip, it’s tough to really get a gauge on the entire situation. Kris Dunn could draw the start, but it would not surprise me if Tom Thibodeau opted to give Tyus Jones a chance in the starting lineup. Jones is the cheaper play and the more experienced player of the two. Still, Dunn played more minutes than Jones earlier in the year against the Clippers when Rubio went down, making him the player with the potential higher ceiling. Karl-Anthony Towns is THE center play on this two-game slate on FanDuel, and it would be pretty nice to use both KAT and Jokic on DraftKings. Andrew Wiggins had a nice performance against the Clippers, but since he is so scoring dependent, he’s too risky for cash games. Zach LaVine has been struggling since his return from a hip injury but he did play 39 minutes in his previous game. He’s not exactly cheap, but this is the perfect buy-low spot for him. LaVine will be used as a primary ball handler as well tonight, giving us some potential upside that has not been there with Rubio in the lineup. Gorgui Dieng is also in play, since the position is relatively weak on a two-game slate.

Last thing I wanted to mention – don’t worry about these four NBA games too much. The chances of a tie on a two-game slate are high, and the prize pools are not that huge. Just enjoy watching some hoops and watching/playing some NFL. I’ll also be sweating some PGA, since I ended up with a lineup that has 6/6 through and a handful of high-placing 5/6 lineups. Good luck, and enjoy your Sunday!

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kris Dunn $4,400 $3,800 0.68 16.6 -1.0 11.3 -5.0 18.0% -0.8% 29 -2.38
Zach LaVine $6,600 $6,400 0.76 37.3 -1.3 28.5 -7.2 22.8% -5.2% 29 -0.41
Andrew Wiggins $7,000 $6,700 0.82 36.9 1.2 30.2 -0.2 27.4% -5.3% 15 -0.71
Gorgui Dieng $5,400 $5,300 0.79 32.5 -4.0 25.6 5.5 15.5% 4.7% 21 -0.66
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,000 $10,100 1.18 36.0 4.4 42.4 3.3 27.2% -0.8% 20 1.41

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn

Secondary Plays – Tyus Jones, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng

About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.