NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 20th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Portland at Dallas – 04:00 PM
- Vegas Line – EVEN SPREAD, 214 OVER/UNDER
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-McCollum-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Williams-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
| Portland | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.0 | Team Proj. | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.86 | Team Pace | 96.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | C.J. McCollum | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 17 | Opp. Season | 23 | 21 | 5 | 19 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 2 | Opp. Season | 29 | 22 | 14 | 23 | 24 | |
Portland
Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.1 (19 of 30)
The Dallas Mavericks are a mediocre defensive squad this year that is ranked between 14th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. This should be a great matchup as the Blazers are slight one-point favorites with an overall total of 213. The Blazers have a projected team total of 107.0 for this game, which is 2.9 points higher than their season average. Meyers Leonard continues to be out for this game, which gives a slight boost to Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis who both are decent value plays at their positions. Another guy you can look at for value if you are playing an early only slate is Al-Farouq Aminu who is playing some good minutes and is cheap across the industry.
Elite Plays
Lillard makes for a great play today as he has a decent matchup against the Mavericks and has been playing some solid basketball recently. He has scored 20+ real points in three straight games and is coming off a solid 33-point effort on Friday. In the first matchup against the Mavs, he put up a 50+ fantasy effort and should come close to that again today, which makes his price at FanDuel a nice choice. With that said, I like him just under Paul and Lowry today.
FD — $8,900 — PG
DK — $9,200 — PG
Usage – 31.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.9
Secondary Plays
A guy that has really turned it up lately is McCollum who is in play due to the fact that his price has come down a bit after struggling in the 20s for a few games there. He has come back with two 40+ fantasy games, which at his price would exceed value by a good margin today.
FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
Usage – 26.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.8
Dallas
Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.1 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.8 (15 of 30)
The Blazers are an average defensive squad this year that is ranked between 15th and 21st in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavs feature a projected team total of 106.0, which is 3.6 points higher than their season average. Deron Williams and Wes Matthews are currently probable to play, while Chandler Parsons is doubtful for the game. If he cannot suit up, this could give a minutes boost to David Lee and/or Raymond Felton and J.J. Barea who could get more run if the Mavs go small with their starting lineup.
Elite Plays
Dirk is trying everything possible to keep his team in the playoff hunt recently. This means his minutes have been up as he has played over 32+ minutes in six of his last eight games played. The production has followed the minutes as he has put up 40+ fantasy points in five of those eight games. He has a decent matchup against the 19th ranked defense of the Blazers and is in play, especially at DK where he is still cheap.
FD — $7,600 — PF
DK — $6,800 — PF
Usage – 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.2
Secondary Plays
The rest of the Mavs are tough plays as they spread their fantasy production across so many different players. The absence of Parsons could put in play whomever starts for Parsons as well as makes David Lee a slightly better value play.
Orlando at Toronto – 04:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -10, 210 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Orlando | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.92 | Team Pace | 95.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | James Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 11 | Opp. Season | 20 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Season | 7 | 3 | 24 | 30 | 25 | |
Orlando
Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.7 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.5 (4 of 30)
Toronto is an above average defensive squad that is ranked in the top eleven in all the above defensive categories. The Orlando Magic have a projected team total of 100.3 for the game today, which is a half point lower than their season average. No new information has been given yet, Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic should be still questionable for the game today as both have missed five or more games. If Payton continues to be out, Brandon Jennings should get another start and makes for a punt option, but not as solid as he was a few games back as he has a tough matchup against Lowry and his price has come up a bit.
Elite Plays
The price continues to rise, which makes him less appealing as a fantasy option, but one cannot argue with the production he brings to the shooting guard position. Oladipo is coming off one of his best games of the year (62.5 fantasy points) in a tougher matchup against the Cavs. While I do not think he will hit 60+, he should be in the 40s in the matchup as he will get all the minutes he can handle and has a usage rate of over 28 with Payton and Vucevic off the floor.
FD — $8,500 — SG
DK — $7,700 — SG
Usage – 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.6
Secondary Plays
Fournier has been a good option lately since he is getting tons of minutes and is a cheap option at the small forward position (FD). His price is rising as well, but just needs 30 points for value, which he has done in five of his last seven games.
FD — $6,000 — SF
DK — $5,600 — SG
Usage – 18.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.2
Toronto
Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.6 (20 of 30)
The Magic are an average defensive squad that is ranked between 15 and 20th in all the above defensive categories. The Raptors are the second biggest favorite on the board today with a spread of 9.5 and they have a projected team total of 109.8, which is 6.8 points higher than their season average. The big news to check would be the status of Jonas Valanciunas. If he is unable to go, Bismack Biyombo would step into being a decent punt play at the center position.
Elite Plays
Lowry is in a great spot today as he has been playing great basketball recently, putting up 41+ fantasy points in each of his last four games. Now he gets a great matchup against the 20th ranked point guard defense of the Magic. I have him ranked just above Lillard and just under Chris Paul today as the top, high priced point guards, but he is priced so low at DraftKings that he could be looked at as a better option there.
FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $8,200 — PG
Usage – 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 37.3
Secondary Plays
The Raptors have been led all season long by their backcourt duo and that should ring true again today. I seem to gravitate more towards Lowry as he is able to put up points in many different ways, while DeRozan is much more scoring dependent, yet he has averaged 27.8 real points over his last ten games making him a great cash game target with less upside than the shooting guard on the other side of the matchup in Oladipo.
FD — $8,300 — SG
DK — $7,800 — SG
Usage – 28.7
Min/Game — Season: 36.3
L.A. Clippers at New Orleans – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -7.5, 212.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Pierce-Mbah a Moute-Jordan
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Cole—Gee-Davis-Ajinca
| L.A. Clippers | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.14 | Team Pace | 99.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Paul Pierce | Luc Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Alonzo Gee | Anthony Davis | Alexis Ajinca | ||
| Opp. Season | 16 | 26 | 15 | 17 | 29 | Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 25 | 22 | Opp. Season | 8 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 4 | |
L.A. Clippers
New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.1 (22 of 30)
The Pelicans have been one of the worst defensive squads from the start of the season and are ranked in the bottom third of the league in all the above defensive categories. This game features a total of 212.5, with the Clippers being 7.5-point favorites. The Clippers have a projected team total of 110.0, which is 5.4 points higher than their season average and second highest on the slate. Jeff Green left their last game with a lacerated forehead, but should suit up today.
Elite Plays
Paul has obviously been a solid option each time he takes the court without having his other superstar partner in Blake Griffin. He gets a great matchup today against the Pelicans and their poor defensive squad and 16th ranked defense against the point guard position. In three games this year against the Pelicans, Paul has averaged close to 42 fantasy points (two without Griffin). He is the top high priced option at the point guard position if you want to pay up.
FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,500 — PG
Usage – 27.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.2
The center position (other than Cousins) is not great tonight, especially if you are playing just the main slate. Jordan makes a decent option if you don’t have the salary space to pay up for DMC tonight as he is in a great spot against the Pelicans who have struggled terribly against the Center position (29th ranked).
FD — $8,400 — C
DK — $7,600 — C
Usage – 13.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.2
Secondary Plays
Using J.J. Redick or Jamal Crawford is always a punt option at the shooting guard position, but one that has been tougher to do over the last few weeks since both are getting less than 30 minutes per game. They are GPP plays today due to the matchup, but with risk attached.
New Orleans
Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.6 (8 of 30)
The Clippers are an above average defensive squad this year led by Chris Paul and are ranked in the top ten in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pelicans feature a projected team total of 102.5, which is .6 points lower than their season average. The big news is the fact that Anthony Davis will not suit up for this game. Norris Cole and Alexis Ajinca are both questionable for this game as well. If Cole sits again, Toney Douglas makes a great punt play, along with Frazier who continues to be minimum priced and should get between 25-30 minutes today.
Elite Plays
There is not a whole lot that needs to be said other than the fact that when Davis is out, something gets into Ryan Anderson as he has been known to take over games and have huge fantasy outings. He will be very popular today at a mid-level price and should easily reach value in a starting role and a usage bump.
FD — $6,100 — PF
DK — $6,400 — PF
Usage – 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 30.4
Holiday will be the other main benefactor of the Davis injury since he will be relied upon to pick up the offensive slack. He has a tough matchup against Chris Paul today, but the bump in shots he should see today should off set that along with the fact that his price has come down a bit from where it was about a week and a half ago. While guys like Paul, Lowry and Lillard are all great options, going with the mid-level priced point guard options today is not a terrible idea due to the spots some of the guys are in, including Holiday today.
FD — $7,700 — PG
DK — $8,000 — PG
Usage – 28.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.8
Secondary Plays
Check the news on Norris Cole. If he sits, Douglas becomes a great value play at the point guard position, while Tim Frazier makes a bit riskier, but also a solid punt at his salary.
Boston at Philadelphia – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -11, 214.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Okafor
| Boston | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 112.8 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.24 | Team Pace | 100.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Nik Stauskas | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | ||
| Opp. Season | 27 | 17 | 28 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 1 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 21 | 28 | 14 | 17 | Opp. Season | 24 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 21 | |
Boston
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.3 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.9 (28 of 30)
The 76ers are another terrible defensive team on this slate and are ranked 24th or lower in all the above defensive categories. The Celtics the biggest favorites on the board today at 11.5 and have a projected team total of 113.0, which is the highest total on the board and 7.3 points higher than their season average. Jae Crowder and Jonas Jerebko are both out for the game today. Jerebko being out does give a slight boost to Sullinger and Olynyk, but their minutes are always risky.
Elite Plays
Thomas is another one of those mid-level point guards that is in a superb matchup today. He is playing big minutes and has put up at least 21 real points in each of his last eight starts. The blowout is a little worrisome in this matchup, but Thomas should be able to reach value at his price against the 27th ranked defense of Philly.
FD — $7,700 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
Usage – 29.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.4
Bradley is simply a price/matchup play today. He hasn’t had one of those high upside games in a while now, but is still getting big time minutes and makes a great cash game option at his low price today.
FD — $5,000 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SG
Usage – 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.5
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner Smart”:/players/marcus-smart-18567
This is one of those spots that we have to check the news and Stevens choice of who starts today for Crowder. If they continue with Turner, he makes a great value play today, as he should get 30+ minutes again. If they go small with Smart, he would get the bigger bump of the two. Both guys are in play as far as tournament settings today, but keep an eye out for who starts.
Philadelphia
Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.8 (12 of 30)
Boston has been a solid defensive squad as shown by their fourth ranked team in terms of defensive efficiency. The 76ers feature a team total of 102.3, which is actually 5.2 points higher than their season average. Robert Covington will continue to be out today, along with Richard Holmes and Jahlil Okafor.
Elite Plays
Noel is basically the guy the 76ers are relying on at the moment as by far their best big man now that Okafor has been out of the lineup. He has put together some solid outings, but more importantly, is getting 35 minutes and has been consistent since all the injuries began. He has a solid matchup against the inside defense of the Celtics who are ranked 26th against the power forward position and 27th against centers. His price is starting to rise, but is still in play today.
FD — $7,000 — PF
DK — $6,900 — PF
Usage – 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.3
Secondary Plays
With the injuries, Jeremi Grant has stepped into 30+ minutes and is at a cheap price making him a decent option at the power forward position as well. The other cheap option from the Sixers is Hollis Thompson who is also locked into about 30 minutes. Both guys are not high upside players, but should hit value at their low prices.
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Utah at Milwaukee – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Utah Proj. Starters – Mack-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – -Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Plumlee
| Utah | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.47 | Team Pace | 96.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shelvin Mack | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Miles Plumlee | ||
| Opp. Season | 7 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 22 | Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 14 | Opp. Season | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 16 | |
Utah
Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.8 (21 of 30)
The Bucks are a slightly below average defensive squad this year that are ranked between 17th and 21st in all the above defensive categories. This game features by far the lowest total of the day at 194.5, but should stay close as the Bucks are one-point favorites.
Elite Plays
Mack’s price has continued to rise, but his play has raised right along with it. He is at the point where he needs about 30 fantasy points to reach value, which he has done in each of his last five games. He makes for a solid low-to-mid priced option at the point guard position and a great cash game option even with the low total.
FD — $6,200 — PG
DK — $6,200 — PG
Usage – 28.1
Min/Game — Season: 15.9
Favors has been playing some solid basketball as they are pushing for a playoff run here. He has a solid matchup against the Bucks who are ranked 18th against the power forward position, making him a decent power forward to pay up for and should be a popular pairing with Anderson today.
FD — $7,400 — PF
DK — $7,300 — PF
Usage – 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.6
Secondary Plays
I can also see Gobert as an option at the center position. While I am not a huge fan of him today, the lack of options forces him into a possible play at the center position for his price. Lastly, Rodney Hood makes a decent option in the late slate as well due to his minutes, but I’d rather pay down a bit for guys like Bradley and Galloway if he gets the start.
Milwaukee
Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.9 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.8 (2 of 30)
Utah is one of the best defensive squads in the NBA this year as evidenced by the fact that they are ranked second in the league in both points allowed and fantasy points allowed per game. The usual cast of characters are out for the Bucks today, but the matchup is the toughest on the board today.
Elite Plays
The Greek Freak is clearly an option each time he steps on the court and while his price has got to a point where he is in Lebron and Durant status, his upside is tremendous regardless of the matchup due to how many things he can do on the court. This is clearly a high risk situation as his price is passed 10k on FanDuel, but ownership may be down due to the matchup, making him a solid tournament play.
FD — $10,200 — SF
DK — $9,600 — SF
Usage – 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.3
Secondary Plays
Giannis is the exception to the rule today in playing guys against the Jazz, but if you are playing the late slate only you may be forced to play more Bucks players. Khris Middleton is in play today along with Jabari Parker since both get a ton of minutes, but the matchup makes it tough to pay for them.