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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, November 1st

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-11-03 17:11:41

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Atlanta at Charlotte – 2:00 PM

Atlanta Charlotte
atlantanba Vegas Total 193 charlottenba Vegas Total 193
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 101.19 Team Pace 97.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kent Bazemore Kyle Korver Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 10 26 8 22 14 Opp. Season 6 10 23 18 24

Atlanta

Charlotte Hornets Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.0 (8 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 114.2 (19 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 5.5 (9 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 214.00 (19 of 32)

These two teams will meet for the second time in three days as they finish their home and home series today. The first game ended with a 97-94 Hornets win, which had a point total of 191 only. We should expect a similar point totals today as Vegas has it set at 193. If you are going to attack a team in this matchup, the Hawks are the way to go as they have a slightly higher total, but have a few decent fantasy plays on their squad, especially if Kyle Korver is out again.

Al Horford and Paul Millsap have started the year well, averaging 36.6 and 34.9 points (FD) respectively, over their first three contests. Millsap has found a way to post great stat lines and is producing at both ends of the floor. Both are elite plays today.

The big value question in this game is will you Bazemore or not. He hurt a lot of players in his first two games, but bounced back nicely with a 19 points, 9 rebound game in 31 minutes on Friday. He is in play again for a bargain price assuming Kyle Korver continues to be out. Along with Bazemore, Dennis Schroder also makes a fine value play if Korver is out.

Elite Plays

Al Horford

FD: $7,400 — DK: $7,400
Usage: 23.0%

Paul Millsap

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,600
Usage: 21.5%

Secondary Plays

Kent Bazemore

FD: $4,000 — DK: $3,600
Usage: 16.9%

Dennis Schroder

FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,100
Usage: 25.3%

Charlotte

Atlanta Hawks Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (15 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.9 (15 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -12.4 (29 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 221.75 (22 of 32)

This Charlotte squad comes into this game with a team total of 95.8. This is the lowest total of the slate for today, which makes it difficult to roster any of their high priced stars as they are a bit overpriced for this matchup.

One player that can be looked at is Marvin Williams. Williams has played 36 and 38 minutes in his first two games this year and has taken 10+ shots in both as well, resulting in two double-doubles. He is cheap and should hit value in the big minutes he is getting.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Marvin Williams

FD: $4,500 — DK: $3,900
Usage: 14.6%

San Antonio at Boston – 3:30 PM

San Antonio Boston
sanantonionba Vegas Total 200 bostonnba Vegas Total 200
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 100.68 Team Pace 107.61
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder David Lee Tyler Zeller
Opp. Season 15 28 18 3 16 Opp. Season 28 1 12 1 15

San Antonio

Boston Celtics Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (24 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.4 (14 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -10.5 (28 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 219.75 (17 of 32)

The Spurs are coming off a huge blowout win against the Nets, which in true Pop fashion, allowed the starters to play 30 minutes or less. Today, they have a great matchup against the Celtics who will play at a high pace, which has resulted in a Spurs team total of 103.5 that is slightly above the slate’s average.

If you are targeting the Spurs this year, it looks to begin and end with Kawhi Leonard who has had a fantastic first two games. He is averaging 24 points and 9 rebounds so far this year, but more importantly is taking 16+ shots in both games. He is behind Durant for top small forward on the slate, but does come at a nice discount and should pay off his salary in what will be a fast-paced game.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,800
Usage: 32.6%

Secondary Plays

None

Boston

San Antonio Spurs Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (21 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.4 (10 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 7.5 (8 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 189.88 (4 of 32)

Although the Spurs are a decent team to target based on their statistics from last year, being in the bottom third of the league in points allowed, efficiency and rebound differential, they are still a Pop-led team, which bases its game plan on defense. Combine that with the Brad Stevens heavy rotation of players in and out and the Celtics become very difficult to play in cash games.

Jae Crowder is getting the most consistent minutes of the starters this year and could be considered for lineups due to his low salary. The only other Celtic to consider would be Isaiah Thomas. He is a tournament play only as he needs to come out firing and if his shot is not falling, Stevens could go with a different hot hand in the backcourt. Yet, he has averaged 40.3 points (FD) over the first two game and should get around thirty minutes again tonight.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,600
Usage: 14.3%

Isaiah Thomas

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,800
Usage: 34.9%

Houston at Miami – 6:00 PM

Houston Miami
houstonnba Vegas Total 205 miaminba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 100.80 Team Pace 93.48
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ty Lawson James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 8 6 9 25 10 Opp. Season 17 19 29 29 7

Houston

Miami Heat Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (10 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (21 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -6.5 (23 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 199.75 (8 of 32)

This game features one of the faster paced teams against one of the slower paced teams in the NBA. Vegas has given the edge a bit to the pace coming up as the total is set at 205. The matchup does take a bit of value away from the Rockets as the Heat are not only a slow playing team, but they were one of the better defensive squads in the NBA last year (171.6 fantasy points allowed per game).

James Harden is still one of the top superstars going today as this Rockets team still has a team total of 101.8. He can go for 50+ fantasy points in any matchup, but it is a situation where you will be playing Harden in a tough matchup when Westbrook and Durant have a fantastic one, which makes him more of a tournament play today. Other than Harden, the rest of the Rockets have struggled offensively and can be ignored until they can figure it out.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,400 — DK: $10,000
Usage: 31.6%

Secondary Plays

None

Miami

Houston Rockets Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 88.5 (4 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (26 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (15 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 240.0 (28 of 32)

This will be a big pace up game for the Heat today. The Rockets have struggled out of the gates this year allowing 112 and 105 points in their first two games.

While many have not been on the Heat in their first two games, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade have had solid games at their price points. Both players are in play today against this Rockets team as their team total is set at 103.8, which is slightly above average. The only other option for this Heat squad would we Hassan Whiteside. He is a tournament play only due to the fact that he can post about 12-14 fantasy points on defensive stats alone. If he can point together a full game and stay out of foul trouble, he will hit value easily in this game.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,800
Usage: 35.2%

Chris Bosh

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,300
Usage: 23.2%

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,500
Usage: 13.5%

Milwaukee at Toronto – 6:00 PM

Milwaukee Toronto
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 202 torontonba Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 101.18 Team Pace 109.31
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Johnny O’Bryant Greg Monroe Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 19 15 17 9 22 Opp. Season 24 30 19 30 12

Milwaukee

Toronto Raptors Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (25of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 92.8 (7 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 12.5 (2 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 217.00 (16 of 32)

This game features a decent total, set at 202 and the Raptors are solid seven-point favorites coming into this game. Milwaukee’s team total is one of the lower of the slate (97.8), but there are a few decent fantasy plays regardless.

Giannis Antetokounmpo came out firing after his one game suspension. He put up 27 real points in 34 minutes for a total fantasy day of 40.8. He is priced at a 33-35 fantasy point player and if he can put up a similar outing, should exceed value easily. The other Buck to target is Greg Monroe. Leaving Detroit for Monroe is going to be a bit refreshing as he no longer has to share floor space with Andre Drummond on a regular basis. He has played 35 minutes in both games so far this year and has had one huge outing, and one average one that came against a tough Wizards defense. Lastly, Michael Carter-Williams has played well to start the year and could take advantage of Lowry who struggled on the defensive end last year after being one of the better point guard defenders in the past. He is a tournament play only.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,900
Usage: 23.9%

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,100
Usage: 30.8%

Secondary Plays

Michael Carter-Williams

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,700
Usage: 27.4%

Toronto

Milwaukee Brewers Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (22 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 119.5 (32 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (19 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 240.00 (29 of 32)

So far, the Bucks’ defense has been pretty awful. They are last in defensive efficiency and have allowed 240 fantasy points per game. While these numbers should drop as the season goes along as the Bucks should be a better defensive squad, now may be a good time to take advantage of their struggles. This Raptors squad features a 104.8 team total as they feature the highest pace on the schedule at 109.3.

DeMar DeRozan has started the season off very strong as he has contributed in all offensive categories. He is averaging 41.7 fantasy points (FD) per game and should be in line for another solid outing. Along with DeRozan, Kyle Lowry has a salary that is still very playable at under 8k. He should be able to reach value in what should be a fast-paced matchup against MCW. Lastly, the move for DeMarre Carroll has been good for his game so far. He is playing big time minutes for the Raptors and makes a great secondary play at the small forward position

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,900
Usage: 24.5%

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,400
Usage: 28.4%

Secondary Plays

DeMarre Carroll

FD: $6,300 — DK: $5,500
Usage: 20.3%

Orlando at Chicago – 7:00 PM

Orlando Chicago
orlandonba Vegas Total 200 chicagonba Vegas Total 200
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 102.96 Team Pace 101.07
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 21 3 28 7 21 Opp. Season 27 4 21 6 4

Orlando

Chicago Bulls Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (17 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 93 (9 of 32)
Rebounding Differential -6.7 (24 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 218.00 (17 of 32)

The Magic are full of young, talented players, yet have started the season with two losses due to a tough schedule. It does not get much easier tonight as they have to travel to Chicago to face the Bulls. It is also a tough fantasy matchup as the Bulls were in the top half of the league last year in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This game does feature a high total, yet the Magic have a team total of 96.5 for the second lowest on the slate. Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic are both secondary plays as Payton could make for a solid tournament play with his matchup against Rose. Tobias Harris has been solid as well to start the season and could be used as a secondary play as well.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,300
Usage: 23.9%

Elfrid Payton

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,700
Usage: 16.6%

Nikola Vucevic

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,700
Usage: 18.2%

Chicago

Orlando Magic Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.5 (29 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (17 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (17 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 240.63 (30 of 32)

The Chicago Bulls will look to go 3-1 to start the season when they welcome the Magic at home. The Bulls have a great matchup against the Magic who are coming off a long double overtime loss and are not known for their defensive prowess. This game features a 201 total and the Bulls are heavy seven-point favorites. Chicago features a high 104 team total and can be targeted today.

While Nikola Mirotic has had his price go up slightly across the industry, he still does fill that small forward role well and is not yet priced out of his 30.9 (FD) fantasy points per game. The other two Bulls to target are Jimmy Butler who is able to put up big numbers even if he is not finding the basket, due to him filling up the stat sheet in all areas. The last Bulls player to target is Pau Gasol for tournaments. He has been a bit hit or miss and the 30-32 minutes played in the first few games is a bit discouraging, but the upside is there and a 45 point outing is not out of the question, yet he may not hit last years’ production if his minutes continue to be lowered.

Elite Plays

Nikola Mirotic

FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,700
Usage: 22.4%

Jimmy Butler

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,700
Usage: 20.8%

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,600
Usage: 19.1%

Denver at Oklahoma City – 7:00 PM

Denver Oklahoma City
denvernba Vegas Total 212 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 212
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 112.0
Team Pace 100.3 Team Pace 104.34
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 5 22 30 20 20 Opp. Season 14 29 2 23 1

Denver

Oklahoma Thunder Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 125.0 (32 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (20 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 11.0 (4 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 248.63 (32 of 32)

The Nuggets beat the Rockets by 20 points in their first game of the season, only to follow it up with a loss to the Timberwolves by 18 on their home court. They will look to bounce back in a tough matchup in terms of getting the win. In fantasy terms, this should be full of production from both sides of the matchup.

The problem with this Nuggets squad so far this year, has been the fact that they have played a twelve man rotation in their first two games due to blowouts, which has made it hard to get a read on what their specific rotations will look like going forward this year. With that said, Emmanuel Mudiay is still cheap and did play 38 minutes in their opening game. He makes a great play against Westbrook today in what should be a run and gun style game. Along with Mudiay, Danilo Gallinari can be given a look due to his high ceiling when his shot is falling. Lastly, Gary Harris is a decent value play, but risky one at due to playing under 20 minutes in the last game and putting up a horrible fantasy performance.

Elite Plays

Emmanuel Mudiay

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,800
Usage: 32.3%

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,500
Usage: 19.9%

Secondary Plays

Gary Harris

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,400
Usage: 13.6%

Kenneth Faried

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,600
Usage: 20.3%

Oklahoma City

Denver Nuggets Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 91.5 (5 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 89.8 (3 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (11 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 204.88 (23 of 32)

This should be one of the better fantasy producing games of the night as two of the faster-paced teams in the NBA will square off. The Vegas total has this set at 212, which opened as the highest of the night. This Thunder squad is coming off that monster double overtime game, which resulted in huge performances from Westbrook and Durant, yet did not come with a big price increase.

Both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are in elite positions today as they take on a Nuggets squad that will struggle to defend both superstars. Both guys get heavy usage and can both put up big lines tonight. The other three starters in their last game combined for 18 shots, while the two stars put up 66. The production is available and they should be two of the higher scoring players of the day.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $11,200 — DK: $10,300
Usage: 39.5%

Kevin Durant

FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,600
Usage: 27.0%

Secondary Plays

None

Dallas at L.A. Lakers – 9:30 PM

Dallas L.A. Lakers
dallasnba Vegas Total 212 lalakersnba Vegas Total 212
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 107.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 102.82 Team Pace 108.19
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 29 2 26 26 29 Opp. Season 2 17 20 28 17

Dallas

Los Angeles Lakers Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.5 (30 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 114.3 (29 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (19 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 200.8 (14 of 32)

The Lakers appear to be one of the better fantasy teams to target as they play at a 108.2 pace and play very little defense as well (114.3 Def Eff). The total for this game is around the same as the Den/OKC game at 212 and has the Dallas as slight favorites, which should result in a lot of fantasy points tonight.

The one thing about fantasy basketball is that the young guys are going to have some horrible games along the way. That happened very quickly to Julius Randle as he was in foul trouble all game and was only able to see the court for 16 minutes. I expect a bounce back game from Randle as this should be one of the higher scoring games of the night. The other Laker to target would be Kobe Bryant. The start of the season may be the time to target him as he will most likely be the healthiest we will see him all year. He is a secondary play only due to his high upside, but the risk attached to it.

Elite Plays

Julius Randle

FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,300
Usage: 23%

Secondary Plays

Kobe Bryant

FD: $7,900 — DK: $6,800
Usage: 32.3%

L.A. Lakers

Dallas Mavericks Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (12 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.7 (12 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (15 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 175.1 (26 of 32)

The Mavericks draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. The Lakers have been awful to start the year on the defensive end and are playing at a very high pace to start the season. This should lead to a bunch of fantasy points for a Dallas team that has the second highest team total on the slate today (108.3).

With Deron Williams still questionable for this game tonight, his absence would continue to allow Raymond Felton to pick up the start as well as some extra minutes. The problem here is that Wes Matthews should be back after getting some rest, which should keep the guards’ minutes to about 25-30 minutes tops. The only other player on this Dallas player to target could be Dirk Nowitzki who will probably play around that 25-30 minute range and should reach value in that time, but his ceiling should be low this year as his career winds down. Lastly, if Zaza Pachulia can see the court for enough minutes, he makes a decent value play as well, but does come with some risk.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Raymond Felton

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,500
Usage: 20.6%

Dirk Nowitzki

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,400
Usage: 24.1%

Zaza Pachulia

FD: $5,300 — DK: $5,300
Usage: 21.1%

About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.