NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 21st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | Jerryd Bayless | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 22 | 28 | 22 | 23 | DvP | 6 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 22 | 1 | 28 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 24 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games after taking care of business against the Hornets in Charlotte. They draw an even better matchup for fantasy production tonight, as they take on a Sixers’ team that is ranked third in pace of play and 25th in points allowed per game. Toronto has an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the second highest of the slate.
Doesn’t it feel like we are always paying a premium for Kyle Lowry? He is averaging 35 fantasy points per game on the season, yet he’s priced in the mid-$8,000 range on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I have some interest in tournaments, but there are better point-per-dollar plays at point guard. DeMar DeRozan will likely draw the defense of Robert Covington, who has one of the best defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades of any player in basketball. It’s not a perfect spot for DeRozan, but he has scored at least 37 fantasy points in each of his last three meetings with Covington.
C.J. Miles is not going to play tonight, which should open the door for OG Anunboy to play minutes in the mid-20s. He’s been inconsistent this season, but is averaging 30 minutes and 25 fantasy points in his last two games. Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, and Norman Powell should all see around 20 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Sixers. They are far from core plays, but are all viable in large-field tournaments.
The Sixers have one of the best low post defenders in basketball in Joel Embiid, but his status for tonight’s game is up in the air. Embiid hasn’t been able to fix all of their defensive problems by himself, as the Sixers are ranked 22nd and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to power forwards and centers this season. Serge Ibaka is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 37 fantasy points over his last four games. Jonas Valanciunas has seen a bump in minutes recently, but his price has caught up to the production. Dollar for dollar, I will take Jakob Poeltl at a steep discount.
Notable Injuries
Lucas Nogueira (Out)
C.J. Miles (Out)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.6 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (5 of 10)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.3 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,500 | $8,600 | $16,900 | 34.8 | 0.1 | 32.7 | -2.2 | 1.07 | 21.1% | 15 | 24 | 1 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,800 | $8,800 | $16,500 | 38.5 | 2.2 | 34.1 | -2.0 | 1.13 | 28.0% | 25 | 22 | 22 |
| OG Anunoby | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 21.0 | 4.3 | 0.63 | 11.2% | 15 | 28 | 1 |
| Serge Ibaka | $6,400 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 26.1 | 10.8 | 27.7 | 2.2 | 0.94 | 17.2% | 16 | 22 | 28 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,900 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.1 | 8.0 | 21.1 | 2.7 | 1.09 | 17.3% | 13 | 23 | 3 |
| Jakob Poeltl | $3,800 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 16.5 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 4.8 | 0.97 | 13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (FD), Serge Ibaka
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (DK), OG Anunboy, Jakob Poeltl
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are a tough team to break down at the current moment because we are still waiting for an update on Joel Embiid. After he was originally expected to miss this game, he has been upgraded to questionable and will likely end up being a game-time decision. His availability obviously impacts the rest of the team from a fantasy perspective. As far as their matchup goes, the Raptors are tough defensively, but they are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. The Sixers have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the third highest on the board.
J.J. Redick has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens up nearly 34 minutes in the rotation. The biggest beneficiaries should be Jerryd Bayless and T.J. McConnell, who both stand out as nice value plays tonight. Bayless will likely draw the start, but McConnell has more upside and is the preferred target. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Robert Covington could also pick up a few extra minutes. TLC offers decent value on DraftKings ($3,400), while Covington is one of the top small forward targets of the slate.
Ben Simmons is viable regardless, but he sees a 4% usage boost and a 0.03 FP/min boost with Embiid off the floor. We have to take a wait and see with the Sixers’ frontcourt. If Embiid is active, we can safely avoid the likes of Dario Saric, Richaun Holmes, and Amir Johnson. In that scenario, Embiid would be the only Sixers’ big man on my radar. If Embiid is ruled out, Saric, Holmes, and Johnson become viable plays in all formats. Trevor Booker is also questionable, so if he’s ruled out as well, there would be a lot of minutes available for those three.
Notable Injuries
J.J. Redick (Out)
Joel Embiid (Questionable)
Trevor Booker (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (4 of 10)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,800 | $9,500 | $18,200 | 45.1 | -2.8 | 36.6 | 3.3 | 1.23 | 23.3% | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Jerryd Bayless | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 16.0 | -0.1 | 26.0 | -5.3 | 0.61 | 13.9% | 30 | 25 | 24 |
| Robert Covington | $7,000 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 31.5 | 2.0 | 32.7 | 4.5 | 0.96 | 16.4% | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Dario Saric | $6,400 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 25.1 | 8.1 | 30.0 | 7.8 | 0.84 | 17.2% | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Joel Embiid | $11,500 | $9,800 | $17,700 | 46.4 | 7.2 | 31.4 | 12.6 | 1.48 | 27.7% | 5 | 8 | 24 |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 20.3 | -3.1 | 24.0 | -0.5 | 0.84 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Richaun Holmes | $5,900 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 17.1 | 6.7 | 16.7 | 6.4 | 1.02 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell, Ben Simmons, Robert Covington
Secondary Plays – Jerryd Bayless
Note: If Embiid is out, Richaun Holmes, Amir Johnson, and Dario Saric would all become viable targets.
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.3 | Implied Team Total | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 9 | DvP | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 26 | 13 | 28 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 4 | 24 | 23 | 27 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have won seven games in a row and if they can pull off the upset tonight against the Cavaliers, I just might become a believer. During this winning streak, they have been incredibly efficient on offense. We can expect that to continue tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bulls have an implied total of 102.3 points, which is three points higher than their season average.
Kris Dunn doesn’t play minutes in the mid to upper-30s as often as we’d like, but he is averaging 1.10 FP/min on the season and 39 fantasy points over his last four games. Dunn’s price is up across the industry, but that will just keep his ownership down. Justin Holiday was one of my favorite plays of the slate last night, but only played 28 minutes in the blowout. I’m going right back to the well, as he played 37 and 38 minutes in the previous two games.
Denzel Valentine played well last night and is cheap across the industry, but his minutes aren’t secure as Dunn’s or Holiday’s. I wouldn’t rule him out in cash games, but his volatility makes him a better tournament target. I’d rather take a shot on David Nwaba off the bench, as I expect his ownership to be lower. The Bulls’ frontcourt has a lot of bodies splitting minutes right now. Nikola Mirotic, Robin Lopez, Lauri Markkanen, and Bobby Portis have to split 96 minutes between the four of them. This makes predicting fantasy production difficult, but I will be taking a shot on Mirotic and Markkanen in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 99.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (2 of 10)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,800 | $7,300 | $13,400 | 31.0 | 8.2 | 28.2 | 1.0 | 1.10 | 24.5% | 18 | 20 | 11 |
| Justin Holiday | $4,900 | $5,600 | $11,400 | 26.8 | -0.5 | 33.7 | -1.7 | 0.80 | 17.8% | 18 | 23 | 26 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,100 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 21.4 | -1.3 | 28.4 | -2.4 | 0.75 | 16.1% | 27 | 23 | 13 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 27.7 | -6.1 | 30.1 | -7.4 | 0.92 | 20.1% | 23 | 23 | 28 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,200 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 24.2 | 2.6 | 30.0 | -1.4 | 0.81 | 18.1% | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,200 | $6,700 | $12,600 | 32.5 | 6.5 | 25.6 | 2.5 | 1.27 | 24.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bobby Portis | $5,000 | $4,900 | $12,000 | 24.6 | 5.6 | 21.5 | 0.6 | 1.14 | 22.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $4,800 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 20.5 | -1.5 | 23.8 | 3.5 | 0.86 | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (GPP), Justin Holiday,
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (Cash), Denzel Valentine, David Nwaba, Nikola Mirotic (DK), Lauri Markkanen (DK)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have eight of their last ten games and are hoping to have Isaiah Thomas in the fold before year’s end. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have the highest implied total on the board at 112.3 points.
We’ll start with LeBron James because he is essentially the Cavaliers’ point guard, shooting guard, small forward, and power forward. I suppose we could add coach to his resume as well. He is clearly the top overall target tonight and a tough fade in cash games or tournaments. There are times when we have to buckle down and eat the chalk and this feels like one of them. I have no interest in the ancillary pieces from Cleveland such as Jose Calderon, J.R. Smith, or Kyle Korver.
Dwyane Wade has a revenge game against his former team. In his first meeting with Chicago, he scored 34 fantasy points in 25 minutes. As long as Wade doesn’t become a trendy play throughout the day, I plan to load up on him in tournaments. Jeff Green offers decent value at power forward, but I would only recommend him if you are in a pinch. Robin Lopez has little to no chance of defending Kevin Love on the perimeter. Love is averaging 40 fantasy points over his last four games and 1.23 FP/min on the season. I slightly prefer Marc Gasol as my top center play, but Love is a close second.
Notable Injuries
Isaiah Thomas (Out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.2 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 17.4 | 5.1 | 0.63 | 11.2% | 22 | 18 | 5 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,200 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 17.3 | -0.5 | 30.3 | -1.9 | 0.57 | 11.8% | 17 | 20 | 4 |
| LeBron James | $12,300 | $11,900 | $22,900 | 55.3 | 2.7 | 37.3 | 0.5 | 1.48 | 29.7% | 25 | 20 | 24 |
| Jae Crowder | $3,700 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 15.8 | 0.4 | 25.8 | 0.2 | 0.61 | 13.6% | 26 | 20 | 23 |
| Kevin Love | $8,000 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 36.2 | 3.4 | 29.4 | 1.7 | 1.23 | 23.1% | 19 | 22 | 27 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,400 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 24.8 | -2.6 | 23.7 | -0.7 | 1.05 | 22.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 19.1 | 2.5 | 22.1 | 1.9 | 0.86 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade (Cash), Jeff Green
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 2 | DvP | 1 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 14 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Heat at home last night. They have already ruled out Marcus Morris and Shane Larkin and Jaylen Brown has been downgraded to questionable. The Celtics draw a mediocre matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency. Boston has an implied total of 102.5 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate.
Kyrie Irving has the best matchup of the five starters and it’s not particularly close. On the season, New York is ranked 28th in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. Irving has an elite true usage rate and he could see a couple extra minutes if Brown is ruled out. Terry Rozier has been losing backup point guard minutes to Larkin recently, but could play close to 25 minutes tonight. Marcus Smart should also see a boost in playing time, especially if Brown ends up being ruled out.
Jayson Tatum dislocated his pinky finger last night, but is expected to play tonight. He’s not my favorite play on the board, but he’s viable on FanDuel thanks to the fact that power forward is so thin. Al Horford will likely be tasked with defending Kristaps Porzingis if he ends up playing. Horford has a high floor and a relatively high ceiling, although I have him ranked behind Marc Gasol and Kevin Love in my point-per-dollar center rankings.
Notable Injuries
Marcus Morris (Out)
Shane Larkin (Out)
Jaylen Brown (Questionable)
Jayson Tatum (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,700 | $8,700 | $18,000 | 38.0 | 1.3 | 32.2 | 1.2 | 1.18 | 29.6% | 28 | 28 | 14 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.1 | -1.3 | 31.3 | -0.3 | 0.84 | 17.9% | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,500 | $5,800 | $13,300 | 26.6 | 2.3 | 30.4 | -0.7 | 0.88 | 15.5% | 21 | 10 | 20 |
| Al Horford | $7,600 | $7,200 | $13,600 | 34.4 | 0.6 | 32.6 | -0.3 | 1.05 | 18.1% | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 15.0 | -3.5 | 18.4 | 2.2 | 0.82 | 14.1% | 3 | 2 | 22 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 23.7 | 0.1 | 30.6 | 1.3 | 0.77 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $4,100 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 19.2 | -5.5 | 23.0 | -3.0 | 0.83 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Terry Rozier (GPP), Marcus Smart (if Brown is out)
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (FD), Al Horford
New York Knicks
The Knicks have won six of their last ten games despite playing a few without Kristaps Porzingis. He is listed as questionable tonight, so hopefully we will know his status before lineups lock. The Knicks draw an awful matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. While the spread is only three points, the Knicks have the second lowest implied total on the board.
The Celtics are ranked ninth or better in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor. There isn’t a single play from the Knicks that stands out from a matchup standpoint. Jarrett Jack is cheap, but T.J. McConnell is in a better spot tonight. If Porzingis is unable to suit up, we’d have to show interest in Michael Beasley. In his last two starts, he has scored 46 and 37 fantasy points.
Notable Injuries
Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 (8 of 10)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 19.7 | 5.1 | 26.3 | 0.7 | 0.75 | 16.5% | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,000 | 24.6 | 1.7 | 32.1 | 1.0 | 0.76 | 16.2% | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 17.7 | 6.7 | 0.49 | 10.9% | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,500 | $8,900 | $15,400 | 41.2 | 3.4 | 31.8 | -2.9 | 1.29 | 29.4% | 18 | 7 | 2 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,300 | $6,200 | $11,900 | 28.7 | -5.1 | 25.7 | -0.7 | 1.12 | 17.7% | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Michael Beasley | $6,300 | $5,200 | $9,300 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 17.1 | 10.7 | 0.96 | 23.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 19.3 | 3.1 | 16.6 | 1.9 | 1.16 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Michael Beasley (if Porzingis is out)
Secondary Plays – None
Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Phoenix Suns | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.5 |  | Vegas Total | 202.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -4.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Josh Jackson | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 28 | 17 | 30 | 18 | DvP | 15 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 29 | 30 | 14 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 15 | 9 | 29 | 25 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are an aging team that is playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. This obviously isn’t an ideal scheduling spot, but we can throw that out the window thanks to a matchup against the Suns. On the season, Phoenix is ranked second in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Grizzlies have the fourth highest implied total on the board and the highest projected point differential (+5.9).
At first glance, I thought it might be an issue that Tyreke Evans played 32 minutes last night. However, in the second half of back-to-backs this season (five), Evans is averaging over 34 minutes. He draws an elite matchup against the Suns, who are ranked dead last in efficiency against point guards. His backup, Mario Chalmers, is also viable. Over his last three games, Chalmers is averaging 28 minutes and 23 fantasy points.
Andrew Harrison and Chandler Parsons are also viable in a pace-up game against the Suns. Harrison should see minutes in the mid-20s and after resting in each of the last two games, Parsons should be geared up for tonight’s game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Parsons play 26-28 minutes, making him one of my favorite value plays on DraftKings ($3,900).
JaMychal Green is a cheap option at power forward. I’m not looking to start my lineups with him, but 28-30 minutes against the Suns’ frontcourt is something that I will never turn my back to. Marc Gasol is my favorite center play of the slate. He has as much minute upside as any center that is playing tonight, he has an elite true usage rate (24%), and there’s a chance that Tyson Chandler could sit this game out.
Notable Injuries
Brandan Wright (Questionable)
Chandler Parsons (Probable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 96.6 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.9 (1 of 10)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.9 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $7,800 | $7,600 | $13,700 | 32.5 | 1.5 | 30.2 | 3.4 | 1.08 | 26.2% | 30 | 29 | 29 |
| Andrew Harrison | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 18.9 | 4.0 | 0.77 | 17.5% | 19 | 28 | 29 |
| Dillon Brooks | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.7 | -2.1 | 27.9 | -2.8 | 0.56 | 12.1% | 19 | 17 | 30 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,600 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 19.4 | 3.2 | 28.0 | 1.6 | 0.69 | 14.2% | 29 | 30 | 14 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,300 | $8,200 | $14,600 | 38.6 | 0.0 | 35.0 | -0.1 | 1.10 | 24.3% | 16 | 18 | 5 |
| Chandler Parsons | $4,600 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.5 | 1.3 | 21.1 | 4.8 | 0.83 | 17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Chalmers | $3,600 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 18.8 | 1.9 | 23.5 | 3.1 | 0.80 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyreke Evans, Marc Gasol, Mario Chalmers (FD), Chandler Parsons (DK)
Secondary Plays – Mario Chalmers (DK), Chandler Parsons (FD), Andrew Harrison, JaMychal Green (DK)
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are also playing in the second half of a back-to-back. They draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight, as they square off against a Grizzlies’ team that is ranked dead last in pace of play and sixth in points allowed per game. The Suns have an implied total of only 100 points, which gives them the lowest projected point differential of the slate (-6.0).
Tyler Ulis might be the starter in name, but Isaiah Canaan is the point guard to play in Phoenix. Over his last three games, he is averaging 25 minutes and 28 fantasy points. His price on DraftKings might be a little high, but he’s firmly in play on FanDuel at $3,700. The rest of the Suns are easy fades tonight unless one of their centers is ruled out. If Tyson Chandler ends up sitting (only played 22 minutes last night), Greg Monroe would become an elite play even in a difficult matchup against Marc Gasol.
Notable Injuries
Devin Booker (Out)
Tyson Chandler (Possible Rest)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -6.0 (10 of 10)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 95.3 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 17.3 | -2.2 | 23.6 | -0.8 | 0.73 | 18.1% | 17 | 15 | 23 |
| Josh Jackson | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.0 | 1.8 | 22.4 | 1.8 | 0.76 | 19.4% | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,800 | $6,100 | $11,700 | 30.9 | 0.9 | 31.5 | -1.0 | 0.98 | 23.0% | 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Marquese Chriss | $3,600 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 16.8 | -6.5 | 20.1 | -0.6 | 0.84 | 13.7% | 26 | 13 | 29 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 21.8 | -7.8 | 25.4 | -4.7 | 0.86 | 9.0% | 5 | 1 | 25 |
| Greg Monroe | $5,900 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 22.6 | 14.6 | 20.8 | 9.2 | 1.09 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Isaiah Canaan | $3,700 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 21.1 | 6.5 | 19.8 | 5.3 | 1.07 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Isaiah Canaan (FD), Greg Monroe (if Chandler is out)
Secondary Plays – Isaiah Canaan (DK)
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz – 10:30 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.0 |  | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Kyle Anderson | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Johnson | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 13 | DvP | 4 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 2 | |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Blazers in Portland last night. They go from one bad matchup to another, as they head to Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz. On the season, Utah is ranked 27th in pace of play and fifth in points allowed per game. While their defense takes a big hit without Rudy Gobert, the Spurs still have the fourth lowest implied total of the slate.
Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are both expected to play, after sitting out last night’s game. This basically makes Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Kyle Anderson, and Rudy Gay unplayable in a matchup against the Jazz. Pau Gasol played 33 minutes last night against Portland and there is speculation that he could get the night off. If that’s the case, LaMarcus Aldridge would become an intriguing play. He sees a 0.11 FP/min boost with Gasol off the floor.
Notable Injuries
Danny Green (Doubtful)
Pau Gasol (Questionable)
Kawhi Leonard (Probable)
Tony Parker (Probable)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.2 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (7 of 10)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 18.3 | -0.2 | 19.0 | 0.9 | 0.96 | 22.5% | 12 | 23 | 5 |
| Kyle Anderson | $4,600 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 25.1 | -0.4 | 27.3 | -3.0 | 0.92 | 14.4% | 19 | 1 | 19 |
| Kawhi Leonard | $5,500 | $6,000 | $13,400 | 22.5 | -2.7 | 16.1 | 0.1 | 1.40 | 27.0% | 10 | 11 | 5 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $7,500 | $7,700 | $14,900 | 38.7 | -4.5 | 33.4 | -1.2 | 1.16 | 26.0% | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| Pau Gasol | $4,500 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 27.6 | -3.8 | 24.8 | -2.9 | 1.11 | 18.1% | 2 | 13 | 7 |
| Patty Mills | $3,700 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 18.6 | -4.0 | 25.0 | -2.6 | 0.74 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rudy Gay | $5,200 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 24.0 | -8.5 | 23.4 | -1.7 | 1.02 | 20.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge
Utah Jazz
This is technically a back-to-back for the Jazz, but their starters barely saw the floor in a blowout loss to the Thunder. At the very least, their legs won’t be as tired as a few of the other teams on the schedule. They draw an awful matchup against the Spurs, who are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Jazz have the lowest implied total on the board.
Ricky Rubio was one of the biggest fantasy busts last night. After Donovan Mitchell was ruled out, he made all the sense in the world. Even if Mitchell is out again, Rubio’s ownership will plummet. I have some interest in tournaments, although he doesn’t really fit the mold of a cash game target. Mitchell would become an intriguing play if he’s active, but there’s a chance that he’ll start the game being defended by Kawhi Leonard. The one Jazz player that I feel confident in is Derrick Favors. He is averaging 34 fantasy points per game when Rudy Gobert is out.
Notable Injuries
Donovan Mitchell (Questionable)
Raul Neto (Questionable)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 102.1 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.0 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (9 of 10)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.6 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.6 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,100 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 25.2 | -2.2 | 29.0 | 1.1 | 0.87 | 20.6% | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,100 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 29.6 | -1.8 | 30.1 | 1.3 | 0.98 | 25.2% | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| Joe Johnson | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 12.3 | -1.7 | 20.5 | 2.3 | 0.60 | 17.0% | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 23.5 | -1.1 | 30.3 | 2.6 | 0.78 | 15.3% | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 25.3 | -14.8 | 27.1 | -9.5 | 0.93 | 16.8% | 9 | 6 | 2 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $4,300 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 17.5 | 3.1 | 0.80 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alec Burks | $4,000 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 19.6 | -2.1 | 0.95 | 21.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |