NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 7th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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It’s Thursday, which means we are only two workdays away from the weekend. If you are a Premium member and have yet to check out the CourtReport LiveBlog, I highly recommend it. It features up to the minute news and analysis, as well as the Grind Down video update. A lot can change throughout the day based on injuries and news. My daily video covers how these injuries impact the slate and I also give a positional breakdown for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Little Noto will also be making an appearance in today’s video, so make sure to check it out. The video is typically posted between 5:30-6:00 PM ET.
Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers – 8:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.0 | Vegas Spread | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 23 | 25 | 17 | 27 | DvP | 26 | 27 | 5 | 19 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 28 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 10 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are hoping to snap a five-game losing streak tonight, as they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers. This should be a fun battle between two young teams that both have a bright future. The Sixers have been a favorable matchup for opponents this season, ranking fourth in pace of play and 23rd in points allowed per game. The Lakers are listed as 7.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the fourth highest on the board.
Lonzo Ball said that his calves were bothering him after his last game, but he was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice. The Sixers have managed to hold opposing point guards in check this season and even in a four-game slate, Ball is a deep tournament play at best. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has played at least 34 minutes in eight of his last nine games, topping 25 fantasy points eight times during that stretch. He offers a high floor and a high ceiling and he’s priced below $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Brandon Ingram has scored at least 12 actual points in nine straight games and has shown a much higher floor in his sophomore season. He may draw the defense of Robert Covington, who has one of the highest DRPMs of any wing defender in basketball, but the minutes will be there and this should be a fast-paced game. I wouldn’t target Ingram in a full slate, but he’s firmly in play with only four games on the schedule. Jordan Clarkson minutes have been trending upward and he’s severely underpriced on FanDuel ($4,500). Shooting guard is loaded tonight, but I don’t mind pairing the two Lakers on FanDuel.
Larry Nance and Julius Randle are both very productive on a per-minute basis. Trying to figure out the Lakers’ frontcourt rotation will cause headaches, but when you get it right, there is plenty of upside. Nance and Randle both have 40 fantasy point upside if given a full complement of minutes. Against a big Sixers’ frontcourt, I like their chances of topping 25 minutes in this one. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, so I always like to price shop. Randle is the better buy on FanDuel, while Nance makes more sense on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Lonzo Ball (Probable)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.3 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.0 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $6,600 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 31.1 | -8.0 | 32.9 | -1.6 | 0.94 | 18.2% | 9 | 12 | 1 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,800 | $5,600 | $12,300 | 27.4 | 1.0 | 34.4 | -0.3 | 0.80 | 16.1% | 23 | 23 | 26 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,800 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 29.4 | 4.8 | 33.6 | -0.8 | 0.88 | 19.5% | 14 | 25 | 1 |
| Larry Nance | $6,000 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 25.8 | 0.4 | 24.2 | 2.2 | 1.07 | 13.2% | 9 | 17 | 28 |
| Brook Lopez | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 26.1 | -6.9 | 23.1 | -3.9 | 1.13 | 21.8% | 21 | 27 | 3 |
| Julius Randle | $4,700 | $4,700 | $10,000 | 24.1 | -3.0 | 21.9 | 1.2 | 1.10 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Kuzma | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.4 | 1.6 | 30.9 | -6.2 | 0.85 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 22.9 | 0.8 | 22.8 | 4.7 | 1.00 | 25.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jordan Clarkson (FD), Larry Nance (DK), Julius Randle (FD)
Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (GPP), Jordan Clarkson (DK), Larry Nance (FD), Julius Randle (DK), Brandon Ingram
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won six of their last ten games and currently sit in fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight’s game against the Lakers has all the makings of a shootout if it stays competitive. Both teams like to push the pace and the Lakers are currently ranked 26th in points allowed per game. The Sixers have the highest implied total (113.8 points) of the slate, which is nearly six points above their season average.
Ben Simmons was originally my favorite superstar of the slate, but that was before Paul George was ruled out. Russell Westbrook is an awfully tough fade against the Nets in a game where he will shoulder the load offensively. With that said, playing both Simmons and Westbrook is viable if you can make it work. Simmons fills up all areas of the stat sheet and should be able to attack the rim against a Lakers’ defense that doesn’t have an elite shot blocker.
The appeal of J.J. Redick and Jerryd Bayless hinges on the availability of T.J. McConnell. If he’s able to suit up, Bayless is off the table. Redick would still be viable in tournaments. If McConnell is out, Redick becomes an elite play and Bayless would provide nice value at PG/SG. Robert Covington is volatile, but I like his block and steal upside against a young Lakers’ team. He should also get open looks from the three-point line.
Dario Saric is also listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he ends up being up, we can give small boosts to Redick, Covington, Joel Embiid, and Amir Johnson. If Saric is active, he makes a nice tournament play against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked 29th in efficiency against power forwards. Embiid could fly under the radar a bit thanks to a $10,000+ price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With everyone looking to pay up for Westbrook, this is a great time to fire up Embiid in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Dario Saric (Questionable)
T.J. McConnell (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.2 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 5.6 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.3 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.3 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $10,500 | $9,900 | $18,400 | 45.4 | 2.4 | 35.8 | 3.2 | 1.27 | 24.3% | 18 | 26 | 3 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,700 | $5,200 | $11,300 | 25.9 | 1.8 | 33.3 | -0.1 | 0.78 | 18.4% | 22 | 27 | 6 |
| Robert Covington | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 30.3 | 0.5 | 31.8 | 2.7 | 0.95 | 16.4% | 7 | 5 | 20 |
| Dario Saric | $6,400 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 23.3 | 8.5 | 28.6 | 4.2 | 0.81 | 16.6% | 29 | 19 | 4 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,800 | $10,100 | $18,900 | 44.7 | 3.9 | 29.9 | 2.8 | 1.50 | 28.5% | 11 | 26 | 10 |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,900 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 21.7 | -14.8 | 24.4 | -8.6 | 0.89 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jerryd Bayless | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 16.4 | -1.3 | 27.5 | -1.3 | 0.59 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (Cash), J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, Dario Saric (if active)
Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Phoenix Suns | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.5 | Implied Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 5.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tim Frazier | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Josh Jackson | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 28 | 20 | 30 | 19 | DvP | 14 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 28 | 27 | 29 | 15 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 17 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are desperately trying to hold on while they wait for John Wall to return from injury. They have lost six of their last ten games, but are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Suns. From a matchup standpoint, the Suns are the best on the schedule. On the season, Phoenix is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the third highest of the eight teams in action tonight.
Tim Frazier and Tomas Satoransky continue to split minutes at point guard. While the matchup against the Suns is ideal, they are both easy fades given their lack of upside in general. Bradley Beal finally broke out of his slump, scoring 51 actual points against the Blazers on Tuesday. The fact that he only scored 55 fantasy points is strange, but he certainly paid off his price point. The Suns don’t have any good wing defenders and we should expect another nice outing from Beal.
Otto Porter is coming off of one of his worst four-game stretches of the season, averaging only 29 minutes and 28 fantasy points per game. I’m not overly worried, as he sees a nice usage and FP/min boost with Wall off the floor. This is a breakout matchup if I’ve ever seen one. Not only do the Suns struggle defensively, but they are a turnover prone team that gives up a lot of easy buckets in transition. At potentially lower ownership, I love Porter in tournaments. Kelly Oubre has taken on a bigger role with Wall out and makes a nice upside play for tournaments.
Markieff Morris has been quiet this season, but he played 30 minutes against the Blazers. The Suns do not defend power forwards well and Morris has a revenge narrative brewing, as he left Phoenix on bad terms a few years ago. The one position that the Suns are equipped to defend is center. Tyson Chandler and Alex Len are both capable defenders, but Marcin Gortat price is low enough on FanDuel ($4,800) that he deserves a look.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.7 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.3 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Frazier | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 14.2 | 2.7 | 17.9 | 3.7 | 0.79 | 13.9% | 30 | 30 | 28 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,600 | $8,100 | $15,200 | 35.4 | -6.0 | 34.7 | -3.1 | 1.02 | 26.6% | 19 | 28 | 27 |
| Otto Porter | $7,100 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 31.9 | -3.8 | 32.5 | -3.4 | 0.98 | 17.3% | 25 | 20 | 29 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 23.4 | 1.0 | 0.81 | 18.4% | 30 | 30 | 15 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,800 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 25.6 | 0.9 | 29.3 | -4.7 | 0.87 | 13.5% | 18 | 19 | 8 |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,300 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 22.6 | 2.9 | 27.8 | -1.2 | 0.81 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ian Mahinmi | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,000 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 14.3 | 2.7 | 0.69 | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter (GPP), Markieff Morris
Secondary Plays – Otto Porter (Cash), Marcin Gortat (FD), Kelly Oubre (GPP)
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have been a difficult team to predict this season outside of Devin Booker and T.J. Warren. With Booker set to miss a few weeks, the door is open for a number of players to see more minutes and/or have a bigger role in the offense. Even though they are missing their top scorer, Phoenix still has a respectable implied total of 103.5 points. The Wizards are fairly mediocre defensively this season.
Mike James has only played 20 minutes in the last two games combined, but it sounds like the Suns were planning to play sign him all along. There’s a chance that he didn’t want to risk an injury before his 45-day contract expired. Now that he’s signed for the rest of the season, I expect him and Tyler Ulis to split the point guard minutes. Only time will tell, but I don’t expect Ulis to average 30 minutes a game anytime soon. I’m going to take a wait and see approach for now, although James is my preferred target in tournaments.
T.J. Warren hasn’t fared well with Booker off the floor this season (-0.13 FP/min), but I’m not putting much stock into it. Warren’s playing time should increase and he’s now their primary option offensively. He’s an elite play on DraftKings ($6,500), although he may be a little too expensive on FanDuel. Josh Jackson will slide into the starting lineup and could push for 30 minutes. He’s a talented rookie that should be looking forward to this opportunity. I’m willing to buy in on him early.
The Suns have been resting one of their three centers every game, but it sounds like they could all be active tonight. Tyson Chandler is going to draw the start, but if Alex Len is active, all three of their centers are risky fantasy options. If Len is out, Chandler is a strong play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Marquese Chriss flashes upside every now and then, but he’s a boom or bust GPP dart.
Notable Injuries
Devin Booker (Out)
Alex Len (Questionable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 107.6 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.1 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,900 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 17.5 | 1.0 | 23.2 | 3.3 | 0.76 | 18.3% | 4 | 14 | 9 |
| Josh Jackson | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 17.1 | 1.4 | 21.5 | 2.8 | 0.80 | 19.5% | 15 | 4 | 13 |
| T.J. Warren | $8,100 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 30.7 | -4.9 | 30.9 | -1.8 | 0.99 | 22.3% | 13 | 27 | 1 |
| Marquese Chriss | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.0 | -2.0 | 19.8 | -0.5 | 0.86 | 13.1% | 22 | 2 | 13 |
| Tyson Chandler | $5,300 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 23.0 | 17.8 | 25.9 | 6.5 | 0.89 | 9.6% | 11 | 17 | 17 |
| Greg Monroe | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 20.9 | 7.7 | 19.6 | 4.0 | 1.06 | 17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike James | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 21.7 | -4.3 | 21.8 | -6.8 | 0.99 | 24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – T.J. Warren (DK), Josh Jackson (GPP), Tyson Chandler (if Len is out)
Secondary Plays – T.J. Warren (FD), Josh Jackson (Cash), Greg Monroe (GPP), Tyler Ulis (Cash), Mike James (GPP)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets (Mexico City) – 10:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.3 | Implied Team Total | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Alex Abrines | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 18 | 29 | 25 | 28 | DvP | 4 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 27 | 4 | 27 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 6 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The NBA heads to Mexico City for this game. If you have been around DFS for a few years, then you probably remember the elevator fire in Mexico that caused the Spurs/Wolves game to get postponed. It is not a pleasant memory, but one that I will never forget. Hopefully that doesn’t happen again tonight. The Thunder are going to be short-handed tonight, as Paul George and Jerami Grant have both been ruled out. Even without two of their key players, they still have the second highest implied total on the board.
Mexico City has an elevation close to 7,400 feet, which is significantly higher than Denver. It’s certainly something to keep in mind, as players often complain about tiring quickly when playing in Denver. With that said, I’m not going to factor that into my decision making tonight. With George out, Russell Westbrook is clearly the top overall play on the board. Westbrook has been in great form recently and will have to shoulder the load offensively. This is a night where you should either go all in on Westbrook or fade him completely. I’ll be in the first camp.
Andre Roberson is the sneakiest play from the Thunder tonight. He could push for 35 minutes against a bad Nets’ team without George in the lineup. Alex Abrines will likely draw the start and offers decent upside as a punt for tournaments. The biggest beneficiary of George’s absence could be Carmelo Anthony. He’s taken on more of a facilitator role recently, but will step in as the second best weapon against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. We could see Anthony play more small forward tonight, which would open up minutes for Patrick Patterson at the four.
Steven Adams was on my radar before the George and Grant news. While he isn’t going to see a big boost in usage, he should see a bump in minutes. When you factor in the matchup, he could end up being the best point-per-dollar center of the slate. The Nets are ranked 27th in efficiency and 28th in DvP against centers. They are also ranked 20th in rebounding differential. Much like last night with the Pelicans, I will be stacking the Thunder in both cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Paul George (Out)
Jerami Grant (Out)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 102.0 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 9.3 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.3 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.9 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,500 | $12,000 | $22,300 | 50.1 | 6.3 | 35.7 | 2.2 | 1.40 | 32.9% | 24 | 25 | 8 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,400 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 25.6 | 6.9 | 0.58 | 7.6% | 25 | 18 | 27 |
| Alex Abrines | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 15.4 | 1.4 | 0.51 | 11.1% | 8 | 29 | 4 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,900 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 31.8 | -6.5 | 32.4 | -0.1 | 0.98 | 23.1% | 27 | 25 | 27 |
| Steven Adams | $6,900 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 30.2 | 3.2 | 31.3 | 0.3 | 0.97 | 13.9% | 27 | 28 | 19 |
| Patrick Patterson | $3,500 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 6.6 | -1.7 | 13.5 | -2.5 | 0.49 | 8.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams, Andre Roberson (DK)
Secondary Plays – Andre Roberson (FD), Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are technically the home team, but keep in mind that this game is not in Brooklyn. This is essentially a road game for both teams. The Nets draw a difficult matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked third in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. Oklahoma City will be without two of their best defenders, but this is still a solid team defense. The Nets implied total is currently six points below their season average.
Russell Westbrook has often been known as a turnstile on defense, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He has one of the highest DRPMs of any point guard in the league. While Spencer Dinwiddie has played well in D’Angelo Russell’s absence, he’s a bit overpriced for this matchup. I’d rather pay a little more and take Chris Paul, who seems a bit underpriced.
I don’t have a ton of interest in anyone from Brooklyn tonight. DeMarre Carroll could see a few extra minutes if the game stays close, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is affordable on DraftKings ($5,400), and Caris LeVert has played well off the bench, but all three are large-field tournament plays at best. Brooklyn’s rotation is so deep that it’s tough to trust anyone, even in a small slate.
Notable Injuries
None
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 109.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.1 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,200 | $6,500 | $13,200 | 27.8 | 5.4 | 26.3 | 4.8 | 1.06 | 22.5% | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 21.2 | -4.7 | 27.0 | -3.0 | 0.78 | 16.8% | 11 | 2 | 1 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,800 | $5,400 | $10,900 | 27.8 | -0.2 | 29.6 | 1.2 | 0.94 | 17.6% | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,300 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 27.0 | -0.6 | 26.9 | -1.7 | 1.00 | 19.6% | 12 | 18 | 15 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,800 | $3,300 | $7,000 | 16.4 | 3.8 | 18.2 | 1.4 | 0.90 | 14.5% | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| Trevor Booker | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.6 | -2.4 | 21.9 | -1.1 | 0.98 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 17.5 | -0.8 | 23.6 | 5.4 | 0.74 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Caris LeVert | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 22.9 | 4.0 | 25.9 | 1.5 | 0.88 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll (GPP), Spencer Dinwiddie (DK)
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz – 10:30 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | DvP | 3 | 13 | 18 | 8 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 6 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 5 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have won seven games in a row and still own the best record in the Western Conference. Tonight they draw a pace-down matchup against the Jazz, who are arguably the best defense in the NBA when Rudy Gobert is manning the middle. The Rockets may have the fourth highest implied total on the board, but it is 6.3 points below their season average.
The last time James Harden faced the Jazz, he scored 56 points and dished out 13 assists. It was basically a kickstart to his season after struggling the first few weeks. While Harden does make an intriguing pivot play off of Russell Westbrook, I would only go that route in large field tournaments. I’d rather target Chris Paul, who played a season-high 33 minutes the other night against the Lakers. He is clearly off of his minute restriction and his price will only go up from here.
Outside of the two guards, there isn’t a lot to love in this difficult matchup. Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, P.J. Tucker, and Eric Gordon have all seen a decline in minutes since Paul returned from his injury. Clint Capela has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last four games against Rudy Gobert, but I prefer Steven Adams at a cheaper price point and in a better matchup.
Notable Injuries
Nene Hilario (Questionable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,300 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 37.1 | -3.2 | 28.7 | 2.4 | 1.29 | 22.0% | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| James Harden | $11,500 | $11,000 | $21,200 | 54.4 | 6.6 | 35.9 | -0.1 | 1.51 | 34.3% | 17 | 3 | 17 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,000 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 24.6 | -3.6 | 34.0 | -4.9 | 0.72 | 12.5% | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,100 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 21.1 | -1.5 | 29.2 | -7.0 | 0.72 | 14.0% | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Clint Capela | $7,500 | $6,500 | $13,200 | 35.3 | 3.4 | 25.7 | 1.4 | 1.37 | 16.9% | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Eric Gordon | $4,800 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 26.6 | -7.8 | 31.5 | -4.1 | 0.85 | 23.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 18.7 | -3.8 | 27.5 | -3.1 | 0.68 | 9.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul
Secondary Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela (GPP)
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are back on the right track, winning seven of their last ten games. They draw one of their toughest tests to date, as they take on a red-hot Rockets’ team. Houston has been surprisingly stout defensively this season, but this will be a pace-up game for the Jazz. Even with a few extra possessions, Utah still has the lowest implied total on the board.
Ricky Rubio minutes have been all over the map recently, but he played 34 minutes the other night against the Thunder. His individual matchup against Chris Paul isn’t great, but we aren’t looking for actual points from Rubio anyway. Most of his fantasy production comes from peripheral stats. If he plays 30 minutes tonight, I like his chances of reaching value on FanDuel ($5,000).
With Rodney Hood out again, Donovan Mitchell and Alec Burks are both firmly in play. Mitchell has been on a tear over his last four games, averaging 39 fantasy points over his last four games. He should draw the defense of James Harden, but there’s a chance he could see Trevor Ariza and Chris Paul as well. Burks is averaging 38 fantasy points over his last four games and we can lock him into 26-30 minutes off the bench.
Outside of the three guards, I don’t have a ton of interest in the other Jazz players. Derrick Favors is a bit overpriced now that Rudy Gobert is back and Gobert himself has yet to play more than 29 minutes since coming back from his injury. With Steven Adams in such a good spot, Gobert remains an easy fade in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Rodney Hood (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 26.5 | -4.1 | 28.7 | -1.1 | 0.92 | 21.7% | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,500 | $7,200 | $13,900 | 28.6 | 10.3 | 29.2 | 4.6 | 0.98 | 25.3% | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,100 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 23.7 | 1.4 | 29.6 | 1.3 | 0.80 | 15.6% | 22 | 18 | 6 |
| Derrick Favors | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 27.4 | 2.6 | 27.8 | -0.5 | 0.98 | 17.5% | 4 | 8 | 25 |
| Rudy Gobert | $7,600 | $6,200 | $13,500 | 33.7 | -11.3 | 32.4 | -8.4 | 1.04 | 13.5% | 13 | 21 | 5 |
| Alec Burks | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 17.8 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 8.4 | 0.93 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |