Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-14 12:14:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Washington Wizards Milwaukee Bucks
washingtonnba Vegas Total 211.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 100.20 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee
Opp. Season 8 25 25 24 15 Opp. Season 17 28 28 10 11
Last 3 Weeks 6 30 20 19 12 Last 3 Weeks 29 21 18 26 10

Washington Wizards

Record: 23-27 — Road: 12-11 — Last 10: 4-6

There are only two games on the schedule tonight, which should result in a lot of roster overlap. It’s the last chance to play daily fantasy basketball before the All-Star break, though. The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and are now 23-27 overall. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game that features a total of 211 points. The Wizards are projected to score 105 points, which is 2.1 points higher than their average points per game.

The Bucks have struggled defensively this season, ranking 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Bucks play at a slow pace, but are still one of the top teams to target players against. With only two games on the schedule, we are going to have to scrap the bottom of the value barrel tonight.

Elite Plays

Brad Beal

Beal is coming off of his best game in months, scoring 40 fantasy points in 32 minutes against the Knicks. Given that this is not the second half of a back-to-back and that the All-Star break is approaching, he should see 32+ minutes again tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against a Bucks’ defense that has struggled to contain wings this season.

FD — $6,300 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 29.9

Otto Porter

Porter’s production over his last five games doesn’t jump off the page at us, but his minutes are trending in the right direction. He should be a safe bet to see 30+ minutes tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 25th against small forwards this season. Porter’s price is down and he fills a position that lacks options tonight.

FD — $5,300 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 13.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 22.2

Secondary Plays

John Wall

Wall could be considered an elite play tonight, but I’d rather pay a little more and get Russell Westbrook into my lineup. Wall has certainly been playing well recently, averaging 51.5 fantasy points in his last five games. The issue is that his price is elevated and that the Bucks have been fairly tough on points guards this season.

FD — $10,400 — PG
DK — $10,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 25.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 38.3
FP/Game — Season: 42.0 | Last Five Games: 51.5

Marcin Gortat

Gortat is a borderline elite play tonight where there are very few center options. I prefer Gortat over Greg Monroe on FanDuel and vice-versa on DraftKings. His minutes have been down a bit recently, thanks to the fact that the Wizards’ frontcourt is finally getting healthy. The matchup is a decent one, but Gortat doesn’t have the minute upside that he did a few weeks ago.

FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 29.8

Jared Dudley

Dudley has quietly been playing well recently, averaging 20.5 fantasy points in 28 minutes in his last five games. He’s certainly not a player that I trust, but with two games on the schedule, he at least deserves a look. Dudley should see minutes in the high-20s tonight against a defense that is ranked 24th against power forwards.

FD — $4,600 — PF
DK — $4,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.8 | Last Five Games: 11.6
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 20.5

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 21-32 — Home: 14-8 — Last 10: 3-7

The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games, but are listed as 1-point favorites tonight against the Wizards at home. This should be a pace-up game for Milwaukee, as Washington averages nearly four more possessions per game. The Bucks are projected to score 106 points, which is 7.9 points higher than their average points per game.

The Wizards are as equally inept as the Bucks on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, they are ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. It sounds like Michael Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe will come off the bench again tonight, with O.J. Mayo and Miles Plumlee starting in the starting five. All four players should see close to their season averages in minutes, so it’s not as big of a lineup change as it may seem.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

Even though Monroe came off the bench the other night, he still played 30 minutes and actually had one of his best games of the season. He ended up with 29 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists against the Celtics. His matchup against the Wizards isn’t quite as favorable, but salaries aside, he is the premier play at center tonight.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 37.4

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently, averaging 38 over his last five games. The production has followed, averaging 33 fantasy points per game during that stretch. His price is still affordable across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked 28th against small forwards.

FD — $7,300 — SF
DK — $7,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 17.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 33.0

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

Middleton’s production has gone way down since Jason Kidd returned to the bench. Whether that’s a coincidence or not, the bottom line is that he isn’t in nearly as good of form as he was a couple of weeks ago. The minutes have still been there though, and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards. He’s not an ideal play, but certainly deserves a look in this two game slate.

FD — $7,300 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 37.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 26.2

Jerryd Bayless

As mentioned above, we are going to have to scrape the bottom of the barrel to try to find some value tonight. One play that is on my radar is Bayless, who has seen his minutes go up over his last five games. During that stretch, he is averaging 17.7 fantasy points in 27.9 minutes per contest. He should see minutes in the high-20s again tonight.

FD — $4,100 — PG
DK — $4,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.0 | Last Five Games: 13.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 27.9
FP/Game — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 17.7

Miles Plumlee

Plumdog Millionaire was a popular value play on Tuesday after he was announced as the starter. While we shouldn’t expect him to play major minutes tonight, an 18-20 minute projection is fair. We need to find value somewhere tonight and if Plumlee can give us 15-20 fantasy points, we would gladly take it at his price point.

FD — $3,500 — C
DK — $3,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.1 | Last Five Games: 13.1
Min/Game — Season: 9.3 | Last Five Games: 15.6
FP/Game — Season: 7.7 | Last Five Games: 14.8

New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Oklahoma City Thunder
neworleansnba Vegas Total 219.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Sprd 11.5 Vegas Sprd -11.5
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 115.5
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Norris Cole Bryce Jones Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Dion Waiters Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 20 8 8 4 5 Opp. Season 11 12 13 14 29
Last 3 Weeks 22 29 13 18 22 Last 3 Weeks 5 18 17 6 26

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 20-32 — Road: 6-20 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pelicans have won five of their last ten games, but have a paltry 6-20 record on the road this season. Tonight they head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. The Pelicans are listed as 11.5-points underdogs, but they do have a relatively high team total of 104 points. Their total is the lowest on the board, but it is 1.7 points higher than their average points per game.

The Thunder have been a mediocre defensive team this season, ranking 18th in points allowed per game and 11th in defensive efficiency. The Pelicans will be without Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon tonight and it sounds like there is a contract issue with Bryce Desean-Jones. His second ten day contract expired and they have yet to sign him for the rest of the season. It will be interesting to see what happens with him tonight. They are in contract talks, but sources say that he is closer to doubtful for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Jrue Holiday

Depending on what happens with Bryce Desean-Jones, we could see Holiday enter the starting lineup tonight. Even if he comes off the bench, he is still an elite play given his matchup and his recent production. Over his last five games, he is averaging 38.2 fantasy points per contest. The Thunder are also ranked 20th against point guards this season.

FD — $7,400 — PG
DK — $6,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 30.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 38.2

Norris Cole

Cole is in play for the same reason that Holiday is in play. His role in the offense has increased with Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon out and he draws a nice matchup against the Thunder. Foul trouble is always a concern for point guards defending Russell Westbrook, but it’s hard to factor that in on such a small slate.

FD — $5,100 — PG
DK — $5,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.0 | Last Five Games: 27.3
FP/Game — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 23.2

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis

Davis had a rough night against the Jazz last night, but has otherwise been in decent form, averaging 45.6 fantasy points over his last five games. His price is high enough that he is an easy fade in cash games. However, if you want to differentiate your lineup, he could be worth a look in tournaments.

FD — $10,200 — PF
DK — $9,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 26.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 43.4 | Last Five Games: 45.6

Toney Douglas

This pick hinges on the availability of Bryce Desean-Jones. If he does not have a contract, then he’s not going to be able to play tonight. Douglas would immediately step in and see a major role tonight against the Thunder.

FD — $3,500 — PG
DK — $3,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 13.3
Min/Game — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 15.7
FP/Game — Season: 11.2 | Last Five Games: 8.7

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 39-14 — Home: 24-5 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are now 39-14 overall. They are double-digit favorites tonight against the Pelicans at home. The Thunder are projected to score 115.5 points, which is easily the highest team total on the board.

The Pelicans have not fared well on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Thunder are obviously in a great spot here and hopefully the game will stay within striking distance so that the starters can play a full complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

Westbrook has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 54.2 fantasy points per contest. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he is easily the top overall play on the board tonight. The Pelicans have some decent rim protectors down low, but Westbrook has been a walking triple-double recently.

FD — $11,000 — PG
DK — $11,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 27.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 49.1 | Last Five Games: 54.2

Kevin Durant

Durant has also been in great form, averaging 52 fantasy points over his last five games. I expect his ownership to be close to Westbrook’s tonight, given the lack of other small forward options. It’s one of those nights where you may have to start with the best value plays and then go from there. By that approach, Durant could be a better play than Westbrook, given the opportunity cost at their positions.

FD — $10,700 — SF
DK — $10,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 27.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 45.6 | Last Five Games: 52.0

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

Ibaka has not been in the best form recently, but he is averaging 31.5 minutes over his last five games. With only two games on the schedule, there are going to be a few plays in your lineup that you don’t feel 100% confident in. Ibaka is in play, but he is certainly not a must play against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.

FD — $5,500 — PF
DK — $5,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 12.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 21.2

Enes Kanter

Kanter is more of a tournament play for me tonight. He is on an elite list in terms of fantasy production per minute of playing time, but it’s hard to bank on him playing more than 20 minutes tonight. The upside is there, but with such limited playing time, the odds of a dud are also pretty high.

FD — $5,100 — C
DK — $5,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 21.0
Min/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 20.7
FP/Game — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 25.2

Steven Adams

If you are looking to save at center and don’t feel confident in Plumdog Millionaire, Adams is a viable alternative. Over his last five games, he is averaging 19.6 fantasy points in close to 30 minutes per contest. He also draws a nice matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 29th against centers.

FD — $4,300 — C
DK — $4,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.7 | Last Five Games: 9.9
Min/Game — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 19.6

Dion Waiters

Waiters has been a decent punt play at shooting guard since entering the starting lineup for the injured Andre Roberson. While his fantasy production per minute has gone down, his minutes have gone way up. He should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against the Pelicans.

FD — $4,200 — SG
DK — $4,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.0 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 21.0

Enjoy the All-Star break everyone!

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious