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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-10 02:58:30

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Editor’s Note: LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are all expected to play now.

Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Orlando Magic
philadelphianba Vegas Total 209.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 101.8 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- -0.7 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Jeff Green Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 27 16 17 10 22 Adj. DvP 10 25 14 4 30
DRPM -0.79 -0.62 -1.87 0.54 1.78 DRPM 0.46 -1.65 3.42 0.68 -0.82

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for the 11th time in their last 12 games. It’s no surprise that they have struggled to stay competitive during this stretch, as Embiid is a dominant force on both ends of the floor. The Sixers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but they draw a better matchup tonight. They get to square off against a Magic team that is ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and 25th in rebounding differential. The Sixers are listed as 6-point underdogs with an implied total of 101.8 points.

T.J. McConnell has played well at time this season, but he comes into tonight’s contest in less than stellar form. In his last four games, he is only averaging 20 fantasy points, which doesn’t quite reach value at his current price point. He draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, but there are better targets at his position. Robert Covington has one of the biggest gaps between his ceiling and floor each night. He is always a bit risky in cash games, but we can expect him to play 30+ minutes against a below average defense. Ersan Ilyasova has been quiet in his last three games, but could snap out of his funk tonight. On the season, he has a 25.3% usage rate with Embiid off the floor. Jahlil Okafor should draw another start at center and there have been a number of trade rumors surrounding him. This could be a spot where the Sixers are looking to showcase him against a Magic team that is ranked 22nd against centers. At his price point, I’ll bite. Dario Saric has scored at least 21 fantasy points in four of his last five games and is worth a look in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,200 $4,700 0.81 24.2 4.0 19.6 -0.2 19.5% 0.5% 27 -0.79
Gerald Henderson $3,500 $3,200 0.67 23.9 -2.1 16.1 -3.9 17.6% 2.4% 16 -0.62
Robert Covington $5,800 $5,400 0.79 30.9 2.4 24.3 2.2 18.0% 0.8% 17 -1.87
Ersan Ilyasova $5,600 $5,600 0.90 27.4 -2.6 24.8 -6.8 22.4% 1.2% 10 0.54
Jahlil Okafor $4,600 $4,400 0.87 23.1 2.1 20.2 7.5 22.3% 2.4% 22 1.78
Dario Saric $4,300 $4,100 0.80 24.1 1.2 19.3 0.3 21.9% 1.4% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, Jahlil Okafor

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, Dario Saric (GPP)

Orlando Magic

There was a point a few weeks back where we were considering the Sixers to be a fairly difficult matchup. Those days appear to be long gone, as they are a drastically different team with Joel Embiid. The Sixers are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 24th in rebounding differential. For whatever reason, the Magic have a knack of being involved in blowouts, but if tonight’s game stays close, this side of the ball should produce some great fantasy plays. Orlando has an implied total of 107.8 points, which is 8.2 points above their season average.

Raise your hand if you have rostered Elfrid Payton more than once this season. Now keep it raised if he has let you down. I didn’t see a single hand go down, so I know you are all being honest. The Elf on the shelf is inconsistent, but he does provide nice upside. He does most of his damage in transition and in the paint, so I always give him a small boost when the opposing team doesn’t have an elite shot blocker. With Nerlens Noel playing limited minutes these days, Payton should be able to roam around the paint at will. Aaron Gordon has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens the door for Evan Fournier. He should see 35+ minutes in a favorable matchup against the Sixers. Jeff Green missed the last game for personal reasons, but will play tonight and should slide into the starting lineup. Serge Ibaka also sees a small boost with Gordon off the floor and he has scored at least 36 fantasy points in four of his last five games. And finally, we have Nikola Vucevic, who dropped a 50-burger on the Rockets the other night. His price has come up, but he should be able to eat Jahlil Okafor alive. Have you ever seen a nature documentary? Sometimes the circle of life isn’t very pretty and that could be on full display tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,300 $5,700 0.93 29.3 -1.1 27.3 -5.7 25.7% 1.2% 10 0.46
Evan Fournier $5,400 $5,900 0.77 32.8 2.1 25.4 1.3 24.0% 0.6% 25 -1.65
Jeff Green $3,500 $4,000 0.65 23.3 -7.7 15.2 -3.1 20.0% 9.8% 14 3.42
Serge Ibaka $6,000 $6,800 0.93 30.6 2.5 28.3 0.5 20.1% -0.1% 4 0.68
Nikola Vucevic $7,400 $7,700 1.14 28.4 -0.7 32.4 1.4 25.1% -0.7% 30 -0.82
D.J. Augustin $3,500 $3,000 0.71 20.6 2.1 14.6 -1.0 22.1% -2.9% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier, Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic, Jeff Green (FD)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Jeff Green (DK)

Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Charlotte Hornets
houstonnba Vegas Total 224.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 114.3 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- 0.0 Pace +/- 2.9
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 28 22 8 23 Adj. DvP 12 23 28 25 24
DRPM -0.73 0.16 2.17 0.53 2.69 DRPM 1.14 -1.22 1.28 -0.62 0.00

Houston Rockets

The Rockets haven’t been in the best of form recently, but neither have the Hornets. Charlotte is much better at home than they are on the road, especially on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked ninth in points allowed per game overall, which is a small concern for the Rockets. The oddsmakers aren’t too worried about Houston’s ability to put up points though, as they have an implied total that is nearly identical to their season average. This slate doesn’t feature a lot of uptempo teams and the Rockets have the highest team total on the board.

We always have to start with James Harden because the Rockets go as the beard goes. Or is it as the beard grows? Harden’s game logs have been all over the place recently. In the last six games alone, he has an 81-fantasy point outing and a 28-fantasy point outing. I currently have Harden ranked as the second best play overall, right behind Russell Westbrook. He’s still an elite play tonight, but I’m not going to force him into my lineups, especially on DraftKings. Patrick Beverley doesn’t have the highest ceiling. While he may have a higher floor than Elfrid Payton, I am often willing to sacrifice a bit of floor if it gives me access to a higher ceiling. Trevor Ariza should play around 35 minutes against a Hornets’ team that is ranked 22nd against small forwards. He is worth a look tonight, but not what I would consider to be a core play. It’s quite crazy, but Ryan Anderson has been markedly better on the road than he has been at home (+6.1 fantasy points per game). It’s a good spot to buy low on him across the industry. Clint Capela has established himself as the Rockets’ center moving forward. He is an elite play on FanDuel, where he is about a thousand dollars too cheap.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,600 $5,300 0.81 31.1 -0.5 25.2 0.8 16.0% 2.0% 18 -0.73
James Harden $12,600 $12,300 1.48 36.6 2.8 54.0 10.7 38.8% 3.9% 28 0.16
Trevor Ariza $5,400 $5,600 0.73 34.6 2.6 25.1 1.5 14.6% 0.0% 22 2.17
Ryan Anderson $4,800 $4,900 0.71 30.7 1.0 21.8 -9.9 17.0% -4.5% 8 0.53
Clint Capela $5,200 $6,000 1.08 23.5 6.9 25.3 6.2 18.7% -2.4% 23 2.69
Eric Gordon $5,500 $5,100 0.82 30.5 0.9 25.1 -0.3 23.8% -0.5% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets finally broke out of their slump the other night, but it was against the Nets at home. If they would have lost that game, Charlotte would have had some real issues. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are finally becoming the bad defensive team that we all expected them to be at the beginning of the season. They are now ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 22nd in fantasy points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied total of 110.3 points, which is 5.2 points above their season average.

Patrick Beverley has the second best DRPM of any point guard in the NBA this season, but the Rockets’ team defense is dragging down their DvP ranking against point guards (12th). Walker wouldn’t be a favorite target of mine in a big slate, but in a five game slate, playing at home, and with a price tag of $7,500 on FanDuel, I’ll swipe right. He is an easier fade on DraftKings at $7,900. Nicolas Batum is one of my favorite plays in the slate. He’ll match up against James Harden, who is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Even if Batum sees some of Trevor Ariza, I’m not too worried. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist makes a nice play at small forward in an uptempo game. Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky have been tremendous value plays recently, but both will go back to their normal roles with Cody Zeller back in the lineup tonight. Marco Belinelli has been a nice source of value recently and is still cheap across the industry if you need a punt in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,500 $7,900 1.08 33.8 -2.1 36.4 -14.0 30.6% -2.6% 12 1.14
Nicolas Batum $7,700 $7,600 0.95 34.6 -2.7 32.8 -2.9 23.6% -0.2% 23 -1.22
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,500 $5,200 0.78 29.4 -2.9 22.9 -0.8 14.4% 2.4% 28 1.28
Marvin Williams $5,400 $5,100 0.78 27.9 6.0 21.6 7.9 17.2% -0.7% 25 -0.62
Cody Zeller $5,400 $4,800 0.87 26.9 23.3 16.3% 24 0.00
Marco Belinelli $4,100 $3,900 0.71 24.7 1.9 17.6 4.5 18.9% 1.8% 28 N/A
Frank Kaminsky $4,900 $5,600 0.81 24.4 5.0 19.8 12.4 20.9% 3.5% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (FD), Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams (if Zeller is out)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (DK), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (borderline elite play), Marco Belinelli (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Oklahoma City Thunder
clevelandnba Vegas Total 207.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 99.0 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- 1.7 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter DeAndre Liggins Jordan McRae Kyle Korver Richard Jefferson Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 9 25 17 9 Adj. DvP 24 17 29 14 11
DRPM 0.03 0.63 2.25 1.13 2.53 DRPM 0.92 -1.76 -2.16 -0.89 2.55

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers picked up a big win against the red-hot Pacers last night in Indiana. While they may be riding a four game winning streak, there are still some leaks that they need to plug on the defensive end of the floor. Tonight they head to Oklahoma City for the second half of a back-to-back. The big story here is that they are expected to rest Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love. This isn’t exactly what TNT had in mind when they picked this game to air on national television. The Thunder play at a fast pace, but are ranked eighth in defensive efficiency and third in rebounding differential. Without their big three, the Cavaliers have an implied total of only 99 points.

Even though this game has the potential to turn into a blowout, the Cavaliers are going to be without their four best offensive players. This opens up a tremendous amount of value. Kay Felder and Jordan McRae will split the ball-handling duties. Even after signing Derrick Williams to a 10-day contract, the Cavaliers are only expected to have nine players available. I prefer the starter between Felder and McRae, but both should log heavy minutes tonight. Kyle Korver is coming off of 29 actual points last night and will likely slide into the starting lineup. He makes a great play in all formats. DeAndre Liggins isn’t very productive on a per minute basis, but that may change without the big three in the lineup. At min-salary, he should be able to reach and exceed value. Channing Frye is a preferred target over Richard Jefferson, even if he comes off the bench. He may end up being the Cavaliers’ best offensive player tonight. Tristan Thompson draws a tough matchup against Steven Adams, but you have to think his odds of logging 30+ minutes are pretty solid. Basically, all of the Cavaliers are in play tonight, it just depends which position you want to target for value.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
DeAndre Liggins $3,500 $3,000 0.53 14.7 1.6 7.7 5.3 11.7% 1.2% 21 0.03
Jordan McRae $3,500 $3,000 0.70 10.5 4.0 7.4 3.6 20.6% -5.8% 9 0.63
Kyle Korver $3,700 $3,900 0.61 27.1 2.0 16.4 5.9 14.8% 3.7% 25 2.25
Richard Jefferson $3,500 $3,000 0.48 19.9 0.9 9.6 1.0 12.4% -1.4% 17 1.13
Tristan Thompson $5,600 $4,900 0.79 29.5 6.9 23.4 3.5 11.0% -0.7% 9 2.53
Channing Frye $4,300 $3,400 0.85 18.4 -5.4 15.6 -2.6 19.0% 7.8% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Kay Felder or Jordan McRae (whoever starts), Kyle Korver, Channing Frye

Secondary Plays – Kay Felder or Jordan McRae (whoever comes off the bench), Tristan Thompson, DeAndre Liggins, Richard Jefferson

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have been treading water since their hot start to the season. I was excited to watch Russell Westbrook go one-on-three against the Cavaliers tonight, but that will have to wait. All of the superstars on the Cavaliers are expected to sit out tonight, which hurts the fantasy appeal of the Thunder as a whole. The problem isn’t the matchup against the Cavaliers’ scrubs, it is the potential blowout. The Thunder are currently 9.5-point favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number was a lot higher by the time lineups lock.

Russell Westbrook has scored at least 47 fantasy points in each of his last three games against the Cavaliers, but that statistic doesn’t mean a lot considering the fact that Cleveland will look like a completely different team tonight. I still like Westbrook as the top overall play in the slate, although the gap between he and Harden is a lot smaller now. Victor Oladipo has played well over his last three games, averaging over 30 fantasy points per contest. His price is up on FanDuel, but he is still below $6,000 on DraftKings. Steven Adams is really the only other Thunder player that has been contributing lately, but I generally don’t like to target centers against the Cavaliers. With all of the options at center, Adams is a GPP dart at best.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,500 $12,700 1.65 34.7 1.9 57.2 6.8 45.6% -0.1% 24 0.92
Victor Oladipo $6,400 $5,900 0.79 33.9 2.5 26.8 4.3 21.2% 2.0% 17 -1.76
Andre Roberson $4,100 $3,800 0.59 30.6 -0.1 17.9 9.2 10.6% 1.3% 29 -2.16
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,100 0.59 21.5 -2.9 12.7 -7.6 14.8% -1.3% 14 -0.89
Steven Adams $6,100 $5,800 0.84 30.8 8.8 25.8 4.8 16.5% 1.3% 11 2.55

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo (DK)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (FD), Steven Adams (GPP)

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Dallas Mavericks
utahnba Vegas Total 192.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 98.0 Team Total 94.5
Pace +/- -5.3 Pace +/- -5.4
Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 5 3 3 6 Adj. DvP 8 1 1 1 3
DRPM -2.41 0.01 -0.09 -0.39 0.92 DRPM 0.78 -0.17 -0.25 1.92 4.71

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are riding a four game winning streak and are now up to fourth place in the West. This isn’t your ordinary four game winning streak either, as they have won each game by at least 17 points. They come into tonight’s game as 2.5-point favorites against the Mavericks. If you have kids and want them to get to bed early, just put this game on your television. It sets up to be a snooze fest with the two slowest paced teams in the NBA. The Jazz have an implied total of only 98 points, which is lower than their season average. The Mavericks aren’t quite as dominant as the Jazz defensively, but are ranked sixth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. The only play of note here is Rudy Gobert. I don’t mind targeting elite rebounders against a Mavericks’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $6,100 $6,100 0.92 31.9 -1.4 29.3 3.6 24.8% -0.6% 1 -2.41
Joe Ingles $3,700 $3,700 0.68 21.3 4.1 14.4 -0.4 15.2% -3.9% 5 0.01
Gordon Hayward $8,000 $7,300 1.01 34.7 -3.5 35.0 6.3 27.4% 4.4% 3 -0.09
Derrick Favors $5,300 $5,000 0.88 23.0 -2.5 20.3 4.0 20.7% -2.3% 3 -0.39
Rudy Gobert $8,000 $6,700 1.01 33.7 0.1 34.1 1.5 15.3% -1.1% 6 0.92
Alec Burks $3,500 $3,200 0.72 13.6 7.5 9.8 4.9 22.8% -4.8% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert (DK)

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gobert (FD)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are looking to snap a two game losing streak, but they will have their hands full against the red-hot Jazz. We can honestly consider this a four game slate and just cross this one out altogether. These are the two slowest paced teams in the NBA and the Jazz are ranked first in points allowed per game, third in defensive efficiency, and sixth in rebounding differential. The Mavericks have an implied total of 95 points, which is easily the lowest in the slate. Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, and Dirk Nowitzki have all been viable targets recently, but I’m not seeing the appeal tonight against the Jazz. You could maybe make the argument for a Maverick or two on DraftKings, but there are enough viable plays that I don’t think we need to take that route, especially with all the value that has opened up on the Cavaliers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $5,700 $5,000 0.71 23.2 13.1 16.6 12.1 22.3% -1.5% 8 0.78
Seth Curry $5,300 $4,900 0.72 27.8 2.4 19.9 -2.5 20.0% -2.6% 1 -0.17
Wesley Matthews $5,800 $5,400 0.69 35.4 2.3 24.4 8.9 20.4% 1.1% 1 -0.25
Harrison Barnes $6,400 $6,000 0.83 35.8 0.7 29.7 -3.1 25.0% -3.7% 1 1.92
Dirk Nowitzki $5,600 $5,000 0.94 25.6 3.3 24.0 2.3 24.3% -4.4% 3 4.71
Dwight Powell $3,500 $3,000 0.88 18.9 -3.5 16.6 -2.0 15.6% -3.3% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Portland Trail Blazers
bostonnba Vegas Total 220.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 109.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Jaylen Brown Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 13 19 23 26 Adj. DvP 22 22 5 18 21
DRPM -2.19 -1.67 0.23 0.72 1.02 DRPM -4.44 -0.21 1.24 2.06 0.63

Boston Celtics

The Celtics forgot to show up last night against the Kings, losing by a large margin against a team that was missing their best two players. They will try to bounce back tonight against the Blazers in what is always one of the most favorable matchups for fantasy production. On the season, Portland is ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. The Celtics come into the game with an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate.

Isaiah Thomas didn’t exactly get the revenge that he was looking for last night, but he may be able to take some of his anger out on the Blazers. Damian Lillard is not a great defender and this game should be one of the fastest paced games in the slate. With all of the value in Cleveland, it’s a lot easier to afford the likes of Thomas, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook. Jae Crowder has played well recently, but it’s tough to pay that much for him in a slate with so many good value plays available. Al Horford is really the only other Celtics’ player on my radar tonight. We always like targeting bigs against Portland, as they are ranked 26th against centers and 23rd in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $10,500 $10,000 1.22 34.5 1.0 42.1 -1.4 35.4% 0.3% 11 -2.19
Jaylen Brown $3,800 $3,600 0.67 15.0 12.9 10.1 5.9 17.7% -2.1% 13 -1.67
Jae Crowder $6,500 $6,200 0.79 32.5 0.7 25.8 -2.1 16.5% -1.0% 19 0.23
Amir Johnson $3,700 $3,200 0.80 19.9 3.5 16.0 2.7 14.1% -0.3% 23 0.72
Al Horford $7,600 $7,200 1.04 33.2 -0.8 34.4 -1.7 22.7% -1.4% 26 1.02
Marcus Smart $5,600 $5,500 0.76 30.7 -0.9 23.4 -1.8 20.2% -0.1% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Al Horford (Cash)

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers received some bad news the other day, as they found out that Evan Turner will miss the miss the next 5-6 weeks with a fracture in his right hand. Turner isn’t critical to what the Blazers do offensively, but he was playing his best basketball of the season. Portland draws a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Celtics, who are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Blazers have an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate and three points above their season average.

Damian Lillard has struggled with consistency at times this season, but is averaging 42 fantasy points in his last three games. I mentioned Darren Collison as one of my favorite plays in the slate yesterday and a large part of that was thanks to his matchup against Isaiah Thomas, who is statistically the worst defender in basketball. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Lillard over Thomas, although both are firmly in play in what should be a shootout. C.J. McCollum has also been in good form, averaging 37 fantasy points in his last three games. He is a viable option if you are looking to pay up at shooting guard. Maurice Harkless will see a massive minute boost with Evan Turner out. This is the perfect time to hop on him, as his price will only go up from here. Al-Farouq Aminu and Mason Plumlee are both intriguing tournament plays against a Celtics’ team that is ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,500 $8,900 1.12 35.8 2.2 40.1 1.8 32.0% -2.1% 22 -4.44
C.J. McCollum $8,200 $7,800 1.00 34.5 0.9 34.4 2.6 28.0% 0.0% 22 -0.21
Maurice Harkless $3,800 $4,000 0.70 29.1 -7.7 20.4 -7.8 15.7% 0.9% 5 1.24
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.68 12.9 1.9 8.8 -1.1 14.1% -1.3% 18 2.06
Mason Plumlee $6,800 $6,400 1.05 28.0 0.8 29.3 -3.2 20.1% -1.5% 21 0.63
Allen Crabbe $3,500 $4,200 0.59 28.5 -3.8 16.7 -9.1 14.6% -0.5% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum (DK), Maurice Harkless

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum (FD), Mason Plumlee (GPP), Al-Farouq Aminu (GPP)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious