NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 1st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.3 | Implied Team Total | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Julius Randle | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 7 | DvP | 24 | 24 | 28 | 27 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 9 | 21 | 22 | 20 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
We kick off tonight’s four-game slate with the Lakers and Heat in what could garner the most ownership of any game on the schedule, but most thanks to the other side of the ball. The Lakers don’t have the best matchup for fantasy production and that’s evident in their implied total of 105.3 points. It’s the lowest team total on the board and nearly three points below their season average. The Heat are ranked seventh or better in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.
Josh Hart suffered a small fracture in his hand and is expected to miss the next few weeks. He was playing close to 30 minutes per game, which opens the door for Lonzo Ball and Isaiah Thomas. Ball has only played 20 and 24 minutes in his first two games back from injury, but I’m tentatively expecting him to play 28-30 minutes tonight against the Heat. While the matchup isn’t ideal, he’s one of the few ways to be contrarian at point guard. Thomas is a slightly better point-per-dollar option, especially on DraftKings ($5,100). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has had one of his best five-game stretches of the season, averaging 38 fantasy points per contest. The issue is his price. I have a hard time paying a premium for a player in a difficult matchup.
Brandon Ingram should play as many minutes as he can handle tonight, as we can’t expect Ball and Thomas to soak up all of Hart’s minutes. Ingram comes into the game in good form, averaging 37 fantasy points over his last five outings. Ingram is viable on both sites, but I slightly prefer the price point on DraftKings ($6,900). Julius Randle has been terrific since the Lakers traded Larry Nance and should see minutes in the low 30s again tonight. Brook Lopez is always a wildcard given his inconsistent playing time, but he deserves a look in tournaments. Kyle Kuzma and Ivica Zubac are intriguing large-field tournament darts, but shouldn’t be in consideration for cash games.
Notable Injuries
Channing Frye (Out)
Josh Hart (Out)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $6,600 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 33.4 | -3.3 | 33.3 | -12.6 | 1.00 | 18.3% | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,600 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 27.0 | 10.7 | 32.7 | 2.1 | 0.83 | 16.1% | 6 | 13 | 6 |
| Brandon Ingram | $7,400 | $6,900 | $12,300 | 30.7 | 6.3 | 33.7 | -1.5 | 0.91 | 20.3% | 12 | 3 | 2 |
| Julius Randle | $7,700 | $7,500 | $13,200 | 28.5 | 10.8 | 24.9 | 7.2 | 1.14 | 21.2% | 12 | 6 | 16 |
| Brook Lopez | $5,000 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 22.1 | -4.0 | 21.4 | 0.9 | 1.03 | 21.4% | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 26.4 | -5.0 | 29.3 | -5.0 | 0.90 | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Isaiah Thomas | $5,400 | $5,100 | $10,900 | 22.6 | -3.9 | 25.8 | -4.8 | 0.88 | 25.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Brandon Ingram (DK), Julius Randle (DK)
Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (FD), Brandon Ingram (FD), Julius Randle (FD), Lonzo Ball (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brook Lopez (GPP)
Miami Heat
The Heat picked up a much needed win on Tuesday thanks to a huge fourth quarter from Dwyane Wade. They haven’t been our favorite team to target in DFS, but that all changes tonight against the Lakers. Not only is this a great matchup for fantasy production, but the Heat will be without two key pieces of their rotation. With Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington out, there will be plenty of minutes and usage that opens up in this offense. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 110.3 points, which is nine points higher than their season average.
The Grizzlies’ stack worked wonders last night and I plan to use a similar approach with the Heat tonight. With only four games on the schedule, I will likely only make one lineup per site and I plan to have four or five Heat players in each of my lineups. We’ll start with Goran Dragic, who is close to a must play at point guard. He’s been in good form, he has an elite matchup, and he should see a healthy boost in playing time with Johnson out. Josh Richardson could move over and start at shooting guard if the Heat decide to roll out a bigger starting lineup tonight. Either way, Richardson should push for 35+ minutes against the fastest paced team in basketball.
Dwyane Wade had one of his best games of the season the other night and should see a few extra minutes off the bench. Justise Winslow minute projection should be in the range of 28-30 tonight, which makes him an elite value play in all formats. James Johnson has the ability to play both small forward and power forward, so don’t be surprised to see him play a few extra minutes as well. We can even look to Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo against a Lakers’ team that doesn’t defend the paint well. Last but not least, we have Hassan Whiteside. While he has been the enemy of many DFS players, we can learn to forgive and forget. Over his last four games, he has averaged 30 minutes and 40 fantasy points per contest.
Notable Injuries
Tyler Johnson (Out)
Wayne Ellington (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 101.1 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 9.2 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,700 | $7,400 | $15,000 | 30.6 | 5.4 | 31.8 | 0.2 | 0.96 | 25.6% | 21 | 24 | 1 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,100 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 26.8 | 2.2 | 34.1 | -1.7 | 0.79 | 16.7% | 15 | 24 | 9 |
| Justise Winslow | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 18.2 | 1.3 | 23.1 | -1.4 | 0.79 | 14.1% | 17 | 28 | 21 |
| James Johnson | $4,400 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 24.1 | -0.3 | 26.5 | -2.3 | 0.91 | 18.4% | 29 | 27 | 22 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,700 | $8,000 | $14,700 | 35.5 | 3.7 | 26.1 | 2.8 | 1.36 | 20.3% | 13 | 8 | 20 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,600 | $5,000 | $9,000 | 23.8 | 0.6 | 23.2 | -0.5 | 1.03 | 23.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kelly Olynyk | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.3 | -5.2 | 23.4 | 1.4 | 0.95 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Dwyane Wade, James Johnson, Justise Winslow, Kelly Olynyk (FD), Hassan Whiteside (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kelly Olynyk (DK), Hassan Whiteside (DK), Bam Adebayo (GPP)
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.5 |  | Vegas Total | 222.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.8 | Implied Team Total | 112.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | George Hill | J.R. Smith | Cedi Osman | LeBron James | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 25 | 29 | 17 | 18 | DvP | 11 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 27 | 17 | 21 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 24 | 1 | 23 | 2 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won seven of their last ten games and are slowly gaining ground on the Pacers and Wizards, who are ahead of them in the Eastern Conference standings. The Cavaliers have been better defensively since their blockbuster trade, but they haven’t faced many elite offenses. I still consider this to be a great matchup for fantasy production and Vegas seems to agree with me. The Sixers have an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and two points above their season average.
Ben Simmons hasn’t played great in his first two meetings with LeBron James, but as a whole, the Cavaliers are ranked 27th in efficiency and DvP against point guards. Look at the DRPM of George Hill, Simmons should have no problem getting into the paint to create open looks for himself and his teammates. He’s on my short list of potential tournament targets and you can make a case for him on FanDuel, where we have to roster two power forwards. J.J. Redick has scored at least 23 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games, yet is still priced under $5,000 on FanDuel. Marco Belinelli and T.J. McConnell are both cheap guards that will see 23-26 minutes off the bench. Both are viable punt plays in tournaments.
Robert Covington has been ice cold over the last month, but should see a few extra minutes tonight against LeBron. At a price of $4,700 on DraftKings, I have some interest in Covington, especially if we expect his ownership to be low. Dario Saric has played well when you compare his recent numbers to his season averages, but not compared to his current price point. He needs 35+ fantasy points to reach value. While that’s certainly possible against the Cavaliers, Saric is overpriced and therefore should only be used in tournaments. Our experts here on RotoGrinders are fantastic, but I have to disagree with them at center. I strongly prefer Joel Embiid against the Cavaliers over Karl-Anthony Towns against the Blazers. Embiid has averaged 45 fantasy points per game against Cleveland this season and should push for 33-34 minutes if the game stays close.
Notable Injuries
Ersan Ilyasova (Probable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,500 | $8,600 | $15,400 | 41.4 | 2.0 | 34.8 | -0.9 | 1.19 | 23.2% | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| J.J. Redick | $4,900 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 25.4 | -4.2 | 31.6 | -1.9 | 0.80 | 19.5% | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| Robert Covington | $5,200 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 27.1 | -8.2 | 32.2 | -3.1 | 0.84 | 15.2% | 28 | 29 | 17 |
| Dario Saric | $7,100 | $6,500 | $11,500 | 28.1 | 0.4 | 30.8 | 0.4 | 0.91 | 18.4% | 25 | 17 | 21 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,500 | $10,000 | $17,800 | 45.6 | 5.9 | 31.3 | -0.5 | 1.46 | 27.9% | 13 | 18 | 29 |
| T.J. McConnell | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 20.9 | -5.0 | 24.5 | -0.7 | 0.85 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 18.4 | -2.8 | 23.6 | 3.1 | 0.78 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick (FD), Robert Covington (DK), Dario Saric (GPP), T.J. McConnell (FD GPP), Marco Belinelli (DK GPP)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have more talent on their roster than they did earlier in the year, but that has actually made predicting fantasy prediction more difficult. They now have LeBron James playing big minutes and everyone else playing minutes in the 20s. As for tonight’s matchup, it looks tough on paper, but the Cavaliers are playing at home. They come into the game with an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the highest of the slate and three points above their season average.
George Hill may have had his best game of the season against the Nets, scoring 45 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. He’s far from a consistent fantasy option, but he does provide minute upside when he is playing well. The issue with Hill is that he’s facing a Sixers’ defense that is ranked first in efficiency against point guards this season. J.R. Smith and Cedi Osman are the starters in name, but Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood are the better fantasy options. If Jeff Green is unable to suit up again, Hood could see somewhere in the range of 26-28 minutes.
LeBron James is the top overall play of the slate and I like the way my lineups look when I pair him up with Joel Embiid. It offers a little correlation in case this game stays close and turns into a shootout. James has averaged 58 fantasy points over his last five games and with all of the value available tonight, is close to a must play. Tristan Thompson doesn’t play enough minutes for me to feel great about him, but he could see a few extra in a matchup against Embiid. My interest in Larry Nance will hinge on the availability of Green. If Green is unable to suit up, Nance would become a borderline elite play in all formats. If Green is active, Nance is best suited as a large-field tournament play.
Notable Injuries
Jeff Green (Questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.1 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $5,100 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 19.9 | 3.4 | 26.8 | 3.4 | 0.74 | 16.5% | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 17.1 | -1.8 | 29.3 | -4.9 | 0.58 | 12.2% | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| Cedi Osman | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 0.69 | 12.0% | 13 | 17 | 1 |
| LeBron James | $12,200 | $11,900 | $20,900 | 53.5 | 4.1 | 37.1 | 1.2 | 1.44 | 29.2% | 8 | 16 | 23 |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 16.3 | 1.9 | 21.2 | 1.1 | 0.77 | 10.6% | 5 | 14 | 2 |
| Larry Nance | $5,800 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 23.8 | 5.2 | 21.9 | -0.2 | 1.09 | 14.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 23.4 | -3.7 | 23.4 | -2.5 | 1.00 | 26.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Rodney Hood | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 23.3 | -5.9 | 27.5 | -0.6 | 0.85 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Larry Nance (if Green is out), Rodney Hood (GPP)
Secondary Plays – George Hill, Rodney Hood (Cash), Larry Nance (GPP – if Green is active), Jordan Clarkson (GPP), Tristan Thompson
Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | D’Angelo Russell | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Jarrett Allen | Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Justin Jackson | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 15 | 21 | 22 | 29 | DvP | 23 | 12 | 15 | 29 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 17 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 28 | 7 | 12 | 26 | |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets don’t have anything to play for at this point, but they also don’t have anything to tank for. They don’t own their draft pick in this year’s lottery, so at least we know that they aren’t trying to lose like a few other teams in the association. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential this season. Despite playing on the road, Brooklyn has an implied total of 107.8 points, which is two points above their season average.
The issue with the Nets isn’t the matchup, it’s that they are completely healthy for the first time in a long time. D’Angelo Russell returned to the lineup a few weeks ago and both Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson returned after the All-Star break. The Nets now have a deep rotation, which makes predicting minutes and fantasy production difficult. Spencer Dinwiddie has played well in the starting lineup, but there are a handful of point guards that stand out as better point-per-dollar options tonight. Russell has immense upside, but we are paying a premium for a player that we can’t count on playing more than 28-32 minutes.
DeMarre Carroll and Allen Crabbe were two of my favorite plays over the last few weeks, but their minutes are slowly getting cut into by Hollis-Jefferson and LeVert. If I had to rank these four players in terms of their fantasy appeal tonight (including salaries), I’d go LeVert, Crabbe, Carroll, Hollis-Jefferson. We haven’t even mentioned Joe Harris, who could see minutes in the mid-20s as well. With so many bodies splitting minutes in Brooklyn, it makes sense to look toward Miami for value tonight. Jarrett Allen has averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute this season, but doesn’t have a consistent enough role to warrant consideration in any format other than a large-field tournament.
Notable Injuries
Jahlil Okafor (Out)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,100 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 29.4 | 0.3 | 29.1 | 3.3 | 1.01 | 22.9% | 16 | 19 | 29 |
| D’Angelo Russell | $7,500 | $7,300 | $15,400 | 27.1 | 4.1 | 24.7 | 4.8 | 1.10 | 30.2% | 25 | 15 | 23 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,900 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 26.6 | 3.4 | 29.8 | 2.5 | 0.89 | 18.1% | 19 | 21 | 21 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $6,000 | $5,600 | $12,200 | 28.6 | -7.2 | 28.0 | -6.7 | 1.02 | 20.6% | 19 | 22 | 27 |
| Jarrett Allen | $5,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 18.2 | 7.8 | 18.7 | 4.4 | 0.97 | 14.1% | 28 | 29 | 17 |
| Caris LeVert | $4,100 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 24.0 | -4.5 | 25.9 | -5.9 | 0.93 | 20.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Allen Crabbe | $5,200 | $5,300 | $9,900 | 22.1 | 4.8 | 29.4 | 1.7 | 0.75 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 17.8 | 0.5 | 25.3 | 0.8 | 0.70 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Caris LeVert, D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Jarrett Allen (GPP), Allen Crabbe (GPP), DeMarre Carroll (GPP)
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have lost five games in a row, which has helped them lose ground (which is the ultimate goal) on some of the worst teams in basketball. Earlier in the week, seven teams were tied with the fewest wins in basketball and now that number is down to three. Sacramento draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked sixth in pace of play and 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Kings have an implied total of 106.3 points, which is seven points higher than their season average.
De’Aaron Fox is one of my favorite point guard targets of the slate. While Spencer Dinwiddie is a good individual defender, the Nets as a whole are ranked 24th in efficiency and 23rd in DvP against point guards. Fox should play 30-32 minutes in an exploitable matchup at home and his price is under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Bogdan Bogdanovic is one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate. The matchup is pristine and he has regularly been playing minutes in the 30s in close games. Buddy Hield is also viable off the bench. Over his last five games, Hield has averaged 28 minutes and 27 fantasy points per contest.
I honestly have no idea what to do with the Kings’ frontcourt right now. They came out and said that they wanted to rest their veterans down the stretch of the regular season, yet we’ve seen Zach Randolph play a bunch of minutes in random spots. With this being a late tip-off, I don’t feel great about Randolph in any format, despite the favorable matchup. Kosta Koufos should be back in the rotation after getting the last game off, but you never know with the Kings. I’d much rather take my chances on the two young bigs — Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere. They are best suited as tournament plays, but Labissiere’s price point on DraftKings ($4,500) is awfully enticing.
Notable Injuries
Garrett Temple (Questionable)
Kosta Koufos (Probable)
Skal Labissiere (Probable)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 99.0 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 7.3 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 22.3 | 2.2 | 27.4 | 1.7 | 0.81 | 21.7% | 24 | 23 | 7 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $5,400 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 22.0 | 3.3 | 27.5 | 1.3 | 0.80 | 18.1% | 12 | 12 | 28 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,400 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 19.9 | 7.2 | 0.59 | 13.5% | 5 | 15 | 7 |
| Zach Randolph | $6,100 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 27.4 | 0.8 | 25.8 | 3.6 | 1.06 | 24.0% | 28 | 29 | 12 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $7,500 | $7,100 | $12,900 | 28.5 | 5.7 | 27.5 | 2.0 | 1.04 | 19.7% | 28 | 30 | 26 |
| Buddy Hield | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,900 | 21.7 | 5.0 | 24.0 | 3.8 | 0.91 | 21.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Skal Labissiere | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 17.1 | 3.5 | 18.8 | 8.5 | 0.91 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic (GPP), Buddy Hield (GPP), Skal Labissiere (DK)
Secondary Plays – Bogdan Bogdanovic (Cash), Buddy Hield (Cash), Skal Labissiere (FD), Willie Cauley-Stein (GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.5 |  | Vegas Total | 218.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Andrew Wiggins | Nemanja Bjelica | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Maurice Harkless | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 14 | 18 | 13 | 3 | DvP | 18 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 26 | 18 | 6 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 28 | 17 | 16 | 23 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have won six of their last ten games and have actually passed the Spurs for the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. While playing without Jimmy Butler opens up minutes and usage in the offense, Minnesota has one of the worst possible matchups. On the season, the Blazers are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of 107 points, which gives them the worst projected point differential (-2.9) of the slate.
Jeff Teague is priced up and draws a difficult matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked third in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. While that’s not ideal, Teague has a 27% usage rate while averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute with Butler off the floor this season. Teague is an excellent tournament play at what should be low ownership. Andrew Wiggins sees a sizable usage boost and Nemanja Bjelica sees a sizable minute boost with Butler out, but I’m not particularly high on either player tonight against Portland. The same goes for Jamal Crawford, who is priced up across the industry.
Taj Gibson is typically a safe play in cash games, but he has been priced up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While I like his chances to reach 25 fantasy points tonight, I’m not sure we should expect him to score 30+, which is what he’ll need at this price point. Karl-Anthony Towns will be a popular target tonight, but I’m not in love with his price point or his matchup. Jusuf Nurkic is one of the best low-post defenders in basketball and as a whole, the Blazers are ranked third in fantasy points allowed to centers. I’ll take Joel Embiid over KAT, especially if he ends up being the lower owned of the two.
Notable Injuries
Jimmy Butler (Out)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.9 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $7,700 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 30.7 | 9.4 | 33.2 | 1.8 | 0.92 | 20.1% | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,900 | $6,700 | $13,900 | 28.7 | -4.6 | 36.1 | 0.1 | 0.80 | 20.9% | 15 | 14 | 26 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 16.5 | 5.3 | 0.79 | 13.6% | 14 | 18 | 18 |
| Taj Gibson | $6,400 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 26.8 | 1.8 | 33.5 | 0.5 | 0.80 | 13.3% | 11 | 13 | 6 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,300 | $9,600 | $17,700 | 43.6 | 5.2 | 35.2 | -0.1 | 1.24 | 19.7% | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Jamal Crawford | $4,400 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 15.7 | 2.0 | 19.3 | 4.1 | 0.81 | 22.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (Cash), Nemanja Bjelica (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are looking for their fifth win in a row, as they try to secure a playoff birth here in the next month and a half. They draw an exploitable matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Blazers are also playing at home, which always helps. They come into the game with an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the second highest of the slate and six points above their season average.
Damian Lillard has been on a tear over the last two weeks, averaging 49 fantasy points in his last five games. His price point is palatable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and we certainly have enough cap space to pair him up with LeBron James if you so choose. C.J. McCollum has been quiet recently, but draws a favorable matchup against Andrew Wiggins, who is one of the worst perimeter defenders in basketball. McCollum’s price on DraftKings ($6,900) makes him viable in all formats.
Maurice Harkless has played well in the starting lineup, but there are stretches of the game where he just disappears. In a slate that features so much value, Harkless is a deep tournament play at best. Al-Farouq Aminu is priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but the Wolves have been tough against power forwards this season. Ed Davis could be worth a look in tournaments, as the Wolves typically have two bigs on the floor for most of the game. Jusuf Nurkic is the ultimate GPP play tonight. We know that he is capable of scoring 40+ fantasy points in limited minutes and he gets to square off against Karl-Anthony Towns, who isn’t particularly a very good low-post defender.
Notable Injuries
None
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.1 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 6.4 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,700 | $9,400 | $17,500 | 42.7 | 6.2 | 36.5 | 1.0 | 1.17 | 28.9% | 15 | 18 | 23 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,200 | $6,900 | $13,000 | 33.1 | -3.9 | 36.0 | 0.5 | 0.92 | 24.8% | 28 | 20 | 28 |
| Maurice Harkless | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 21.0 | 6.9 | 0.66 | 10.9% | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 23.6 | -1.9 | 30.1 | 0.6 | 0.79 | 13.0% | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,400 | $7,000 | $12,900 | 30.7 | 1.8 | 26.5 | -1.8 | 1.16 | 22.6% | 24 | 4 | 23 |
| Shabazz Napier | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 18.4 | -0.7 | 21.3 | -1.7 | 0.87 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ed Davis | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 18.8 | 1.6 | 0.95 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |