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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-04 03:53:10

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Orlando Magic
sacramentonba Vegas Total 199.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 98.8 Team Total 100.3
Pace +/- -1.5 Pace +/- -3.9
Proj. Starter Ty Lawson Arron Afflalo Rudy Gay Matt Barnes DeMarcus Cousins Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 25 13 20 22 29 2016-17 2 12 23 19 14

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are 2-3 to start the season. While the record appears to be trending in a similar direction, they are playing a different style of basketball this year. They are ranked 27th in pace and 22nd in points scored per game. Historically, they have been one of the worst defenses in the NBA, but they’ve improved on that front in their first five games. Offensively, it’s been a lot of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. Both have an adjusted usage rate over 25%, while the next closest is Ty Lawson at 16%. Darren Collison is still serving his eight game suspension and won’t be eligible to return until November 8th.

The Kings come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs against the Magic in Orlando. The game projects to be the slowest paced in the slate, but these defenses are exploitable. On the season, Orlando is ranked 25th in both defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. Sacramento has an implied total of 98.8 points, which seems a bit low even though they are playing on the road. Ty Lawson has been a serviceable value play in the early part of the season, averaging 23 fantasy points in 33 minutes per game. Typically, the smaller the slate, the fewer value plays there are. However, this slate is loaded with viable point guard options. Lawson does provide good value, but I see him more as a secondary play. Rudy Gay has been heavily involved offensively in the first five games, averaging over 38 fantasy points per contest. His price on DraftKings is still too cheap. Matt Barnes drew the start at power forward in the last game and would make for an excellent value if he draws the start against the Magic. DeMarcus Cousins is the premier play at center, but getting the likes of Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kevin Durant into our lineups is more important.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Ty Lawson PG $4,900 PG $5,100 PG $8,100 33 23.0 0.70 16.4% 31.5% 25
Arron Afflalo SG $3,800 SG $3,800 SG $7,900 31.7 15.2 0.48 12.8% 25.0% 13
Rudy Gay SF $7,500 SF $6,500 SF $10,800 34.4 38.0 1.10 25.3% 27.9% 20
Matt Barnes SF $4,200 SF $4,000 SF $8,100 26.5 19.6 0.74 15.5% 24.9% 20
DeMarcus Cousins C $9,600 PF/C $10,600 PF $15,100 32.2 40.8 1.27 27.6% 43.4% 29
Kosta Koufos C $3,600 C $3,400 C $8,700 21.3 15.7 0.74 9.2% 18.8% 29

Elite Plays – Rudy Gay (DK), DeMarcus Cousins (GPP), Matt Barnes

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gay (FD), DeMarcus Cousins (Cash), Ty Lawson

Orlando Magic

The Magic picked up their first win of the season in Philadelphia the other night. They’ll look to make it two in a row tonight against the Kings at home. Orlando is currently ranked 20th in pace and 29th in points scored per game, so like the Kings, they have struggled offensively to start the season. Their defense hasn’t fared any better, as they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Frank Vogel has had a tight rotation through their first four games with all five starters averaging at least 29 minutes per game.

The Magic come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point favorites against a Kings’ defense that is ranked 18th in defensive efficiency and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game. Even though this projects to be a slow-paced game, both offenses should be fairly efficient. The Magic have an implied total of 100.3 points, which is considerably higher (5.3 points) than their season average. Elfrid Payton is always a favorite target of mine at point guard thanks to his ability to fill up the stat sheet. Ty Lawson has never been an elite defender, but the Kings are ranked second against point guards this season. With Kris Dunn looking like a must start, Payton is a better GPP play than cash game option. Evan Fournier is playing big minutes and he leads the team in adjusted usage rate. His price has come up, but he is playable in all formats. Aaron Gordon has stretches of brilliance, but he seemingly disappears for quarters at a time. Small forward is top-heavy tonight and I’m not sure we need to look his way. Serge Ibaka has been frustrating thus far and is losing minutes to Bismack Biyombo. Nikola Vucevic is an intriguing GPP option, but there are two reasons why we don’t target centers against DeMarcus Cousins – he’s actually a good low post defender and he draws fouls as well as anyone.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Elfrid Payton PG $6,200 PG $6,000 PG $9,800 34.4 30.8 0.89 23.0% 39.7% 2
Evan Fournier SG $6,000 SG $6,100 SG $8,800 35.4 27.6 0.78 23.0% 28.8% 12
Aaron Gordon SF $5,800 SF/PF $5,700 SF $9,200 30.4 24.9 0.82 15.8% 22.5% 23
Serge Ibaka PF $5,600 PF/C $5,700 PF $10,300 29.6 23.0 0.78 17.8% 20.1% 19
Nikola Vucevic C $7,700 C $6,400 C $10,500 29.5 35.5 1.20 20.6% 36.2% 14
Bismack Biyombo C $4,400 C $3,400 C $8,100 20.8 11.8 0.57 5.6% 13.3% 14

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers
bostonnba Vegas Total 209.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- -0.8 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Amir Johnson Tyler Zeller Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 3 15 17 5 6 2016-17 17 29 1 11 8

Boston Celtics

The Celtics picked up a win at home against the Bulls last night, but it didn’t come without a price. Jae Crowder injured his ankle and is expected to miss at least a week of action. The Celtics were already playing short-handed without Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk, who have both been ruled out of Thursday’s game against the Cavaliers. While Boston is a talented team that could challenge the Cavaliers in the playoffs (not beat, but challenge), this is a tough spot. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and they are going to be without two of their best players.

The Celtics are currently listed as 9.5-point underdogs, which is the second highest spread in the slate. They have an implied total of only 100 points, which is 8.3 points below their season average. The Cavaliers are a tough defense, especially at home. On the season, they are ranked 11th or better in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Marcus Smart is expected to pick up most of Jae Crowder minutes while he is out. Smart played 34 minutes last night against the Bulls and had 18.5 fantasy points. Isaiah Thomas draws the best matchup of the five starters, but there are too many viable point guard options to consider him in cash games. Avery Bradley has been on a tear to start the season, but he’s dealing with a shoulder injury of his own. As for the frontcourt, Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller, and Jonas Jerebko should all see decent minutes with Al Horford out. Johnson is the preferred target in DFS, as he is coming off of a 45 fantasy point outing.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Isaiah Thomas PG $8,000 PG $7,500 PG $10,700 34.3 38.0 1.11 27.7% 47.5% 3
Marcus Smart PG $5,200 PG/SG $4,400 PG $7,300 26.9% 3
Avery Bradley SG $6,700 SG $5,800 SG $9,300 36.7 38.8 1.06 21.3% 25.4% 15
Amir Johnson PF $4,000 PF/C $3,900 PF $7,300 18.8 12.3 0.65 10.2% 20.5% 5
Tyler Zeller C $3,800 C $3,800 C $7,400 16.3 17.3 1.06 17.6% 27.9% 6
Terry Rozier PG $3,500 PG $3,300 PG $6,000 23.9 16.0 0.67 12.9% 29.5% 3

Elite Plays – Amir Johnson

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (GPP), Avery Bradley, Tyler Zeller

Cleveland Cavaliers

Did anyone watch Game 7 last night? Wow, what a baseball game. LeBron James was in the stands and if you didn’t see his reaction after Rajai Davis tied the game up with that two-run home run, it’s worth a Google. The Cavaliers are 4-0 to start the season and they have yet to be challenged, winning by an average margin of 11.5 points. The best part about Cleveland is that we know where their production is going to come from. LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving all have an adjusted usage rate of at least 23% and all three have had big fantasy outings in the first four games. The Cavaliers play at a mediocre pace, but their efficiency on offense more than makes up for it.

The Cavaliers are big favorites tonight at home against the Celtics, who are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. Cleveland has an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate. The Celtics haven’t been nearly as efficient on defense this season and they will be without Jae Crowder and Al Horford tonight. Kyrie Irving is averaging a cool 36.3 fantasy points per game to start the season. He is still priced under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The issue is that using Irving results in giving either Russell Westbrook or Kris Dunn the old heave-ho. J.R. Smith is a decent value at shooting guard, but far from a must play. LeBron James did not play well against the Rockets and still finished with 42 fantasy points. That’s just how good he is. While he’s in a good spot here, I still prefer the likes of Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kevin Durant. Kevin Love makes the most sense from a roster construction standpoint. He is affordable across the industry and power forward isn’t as deep as some of the other positions.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Kyrie Irving PG $7,800 PG $7,600 PG $12,500 35 36.3 1.04 27.6% 43.0% 17
J.R. Smith SG $4,400 SG $4,300 SG $8,500 30.5 20.0 0.66 17.4% 22.6% 29
LeBron James SF $9,500 SF/PF $9,600 SF $15,100 36.5 44.2 1.21 26.5% 48.7% 1
Kevin Love PF $7,400 PF/C $7,100 PF $11,300 31 35.3 1.14 23.8% 30.1% 11
Tristan Thompson C $4,300 C $4,200 PF $8,300 28.2 19.4 0.69 6.1% 14.0% 8
Richard Jefferson SF $3,500 SF $3,000 SF $6,000 22.1 13.2 0.60 11.7% 18.8% 1

Elite Plays – Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Milwaukee Bucks
indiananba Vegas Total 213.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 107.8 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 2.6
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 12 21 22 22 28 2016-17 27 20 25 17 19

Indiana Pacers

When the Pacers hired Nate McMillan, I expected them to slow their pace down and really buckle down defensively. So far, that hasn’t been the case. The Pacers are ranked ninth in pace and fourth in points scored per game. Meanwhile, their play on the defensive end of the floor has taken a step back, ranking 28th in fantasy points allowed per game. If this continues, the Pacers will be one of the top teams to target and to target players against on a nightly basis. They have one of the most talented starting fives in basketball, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense.

The Pacers come into tonight’s game as 2-point favorites against the Bucks. Milwaukee has been an exploitable matchup thus far, ranking below the league average in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers have an implied total of 107.8 points, good enough for the third highest mark in the slate. It’s somewhat surprising that Jeff Teague leads the Pacers in adjusted usage, but the numbers don’t lie. I’m not looking his way tonight, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Monta Ellis is a DFS-favorite at shooting guard, but his FP/min and usage are down this year. I’m fading him in spots where I can find viable alternatives. I’m expecting big things from Paul George in this matchup. He has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and the Bucks have not fared well against opposing small forwards. Thaddeus Young has been a consistent performer thus far; he is a viable play in all formats. Myles Turner put up a dud against the Lakers, but is still averaging 36.9 fantasy points per game. He is an elite GPP play in a slate where his ownership should be lowered due to recency bias.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Jeff Teague PG $6,200 PG $5,800 PG $10,400 31.5 25.1 0.80 23.6% 46.7% 12
Monta Ellis SG $5,900 SG $5,500 SG $10,400 35.6 24.2 0.68 15.2% 35.2% 21
Paul George SF $9,200 SF $8,400 SF $13,200 34.9 37.7 1.08 21.5% 40.7% 22
Thaddeus Young PF $6,200 PF $5,900 PF $9,900 31.1 29.1 0.93 15.9% 26.9% 22
Myles Turner C $6,900 PF/C $7,300 C $11,600 29.3 36.9 1.26 19.5% 24.0% 28
C.J. Miles SF $3,900 SG/SF $3,600 SF $7,500 19 19.3 1.01 20.5% 27.3% 22

Elite Plays – Paul George, Myles Turner (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner (Cash), Monta Ellis, Thaddeus Young

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are 2-2 to start the season. Their hope is to bide time until Khris Middleton comes back (March) and then make a run for the playoffs. I’m not sure they have enough talent on this roster to accomplish that goal, but anything is possible when you have The Alphabet at your disposal. The Bucks are ranked 13th in pace and 19th in points scored per game this season. Their offense has basically been the Giannis Antetokounmpo Show featuring guest appearances by Jabari Parker, Greg Monroe, and Matthew Dellavedova.

The Bucks draw one of the top matchups in the slate. They are 2-point underdogs against a Pacers’ defense that is currently ranked 28th in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks have an implied total of 105.8 points, which is 4.3 points above their season average. We have to start our analysis of the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging a 23 points, nine rebounds, six assists, and three blocks/steals per game. He has yet to have a fantasy outing of less than 42 points. All of the attention will be on Russell Westbrook tonight, but Antetokounmpo is just as important when it comes to roster construction. Matthew Dellavedova has quietly averaged 26 fantasy points per game. It’s hard to play him on FanDuel, but he is shooting guard-eligible on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Giannis Antetokounmpo SG $9,700 PG $9,000 SF $13,800 35.8 47.4 1.32 27.3% 33.1% 20
Matthew Dellavedova PG $4,800 PG/SG $4,700 PG $7,800 31.3 26.1 0.83 18.4% 31.6% 27
Tony Snell SF $3,800 SG/SF $3,400 SF $7,600 26.6 15.4 0.58 14.2% 19.3% 25
Jabari Parker PF $5,800 SF/PF $5,600 PF $10,100 30.8 24.0 0.78 19.7% 25.6% 17
Miles Plumlee C $3,500 C $3,000 C $6,700 11.9 9.0 0.75 12.3% 18.7% 19
Greg Monroe C $5,600 C $5,400 C $8,600 20.9 27.5 1.31 23.3% 30.3% 19

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Matthew Dellavedova (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Minnesota Timberwolves
denvernba Vegas Total 209.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 102.8 Team Total 106.3
Pace +/- -4.1 Pace +/- 3.9
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Jamal Murray Danilo Gallinari Nikola Jokic Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Kris Dunn Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 1 8 29 16 13 2016-17 28 25 1 29 1

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are 1-2 to start the season. They are averaging 107.3 points per game while simultaneously giving up 107.3 points per game. They will be short-handed tonight against the Wolves, as both of their shooting guards have already been ruled out. With Will Barton and Gary Harris on the shelf, Jamal Murray could end up drawing the start at shooting guard. He isn’t the most polished NBA player, but he brings a lot of hustle and defense to the table. If he does start tonight, there will be a lot of people looking his way in DFS. The story so far for the Nuggets has been the play of their frontcourt. Nikola Jokic is averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minutes and Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute.

The Nuggets come into tonight’s game as a 3.5-point underdog against the Wolves in Minnesota. This game projects to be played at a relatively quickly pace, albeit a little slower than the Nuggets’ pace so far this season. Denver has an implied total of 102.8 points, which is the fourth lowest in the slate and considerably lower than their season average. Emmanuel Mudiay has shown some nice upside this season and draws a nice matchup against rookie Kris Dunn. Given the number of point guard options, no one will be on him tonight. He’s worth a look as a deep GPP flyer. As mentioned above, Jamal Murray should see extended minutes in this game. At close to minimum salary, he is a fine punt with limited upside. Danilo Gallinari is off to a shaky start, but his price on DraftKings is appealing ($5,800). While I’m glad that I’ve been on this Nuggets’ frontcourt so early in the season, Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic seem to be trading off big games. Neither has a particularly intriguing matchup tonight, but I’d rather take my chances with Jokic against Gorgui Dieng.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Emmanuel Mudiay PG $5,900 PG $6,000 PG $8,700 33.1 28.5 0.86 20.2% 41.8% 1
Jamal Murray PG $3,500 PG/SG $3,700 SG $7,200 12.3 5.9 0.48 13.2% 1
Danilo Gallinari SF $6,700 SF $5,800 SF $10,700 38.8 24.1 0.62 17.0% 29.4% 29
Nikola Jokic PF $5,900 PF/C $6,800 PF $9,600 25.9 27.3 1.05 15.9% 29.2% 16
Jusuf Nurkic C $5,600 C $6,500 C $9,500 28.9 36.9 1.28 20.2% 35.3% 13
Wilson Chandler SF $4,800 SF $4,500 SF $8,200 30.6 17.9 0.59 15.2% 29

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic (FD)

Secondary Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay (GPP), Jamal Murray (Cash), Danilo Gallinari (DK), Nikola Jokic (DK), Jusuf Nurkic

Minnesota Timberwolves

We’ve been waiting three games to target the upstart Wolves in daily fantasy. If you look strictly at game logs, you may not realize that the Wolves have yet to have a favorable matchup. There is a reason why their fantasy production has been down to start the year. They will be without Ricky Rubio again tonight, which means another start for rookie Kris Dunn. He played very well in his first career start with ten points, four rebounds, six assists, and five steals. He should see around 30 minutes tonight.

The Wolves are one of my favorite offenses to target in this slate. As mentioned above, they have yet to have a great matchup and they are still averaging 105.7 points per game this season. They come into tonight’s contest with an implied total of 106.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate. Kris Dunn projects to be one of the highest owned players in the slate and for good reason. “Targeting value point guards”: is my favorite source of value when it comes to roster construction. Zach LaVine took on a bigger role in the offense with Ricky Rubio out the other night. He is an elite shooting guard play tonight and you shouldn’t hesitate to pair him with Dunn in the backcourt. Andrew Wiggins finds himself in a nice matchup, but he’s my least favorite of the five starters. Gorgui Dieng has been on fire to start the season, averaging a team-high 36.3 fantasy points. His price is getting up there, but he remains a strong play in all formats. Last but not least, we have Karl-Anthony Towns. I’ve mentioned this a few times, but I expect him to be a top five fantasy scorer by year’s end. His production has been down so far, but that’s what happens when you face Marc Gasol (twice) and DeMarcus Cousins in each of the first three games. Tonight is the night to hop on the KAT bandwagon, because as soon as he has a big game, everyone else will hop on too.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Kris Dunn PG $4,900 PG $4,900 PG $8,100 21.4 18.9 0.88 15.7% 28
Zach LaVine SG $6,000 SG $6,200 PG $9,500 33.2 31.4 0.95 22.9% 34.1% 25
Andrew Wiggins SF $6,300 SF $6,100 SG $10,200 33.5 28.8 0.86 22.3% 32.7% 1
Gorgui Dieng PF $6,500 PF/C $6,700 PF $10,600 34.1 36.3 1.06 14.1% 22.6% 29
Karl-Anthony Towns C $8,600 C $7,900 C $14,200 34.5 32.8 0.95 21.6% 31.0% 1
Shabazz Muhammad SF $3,600 SG/SF $3,000 SF $6,000 14.5 9.8 0.68 19.4% 25.6% 1

Elite Plays – Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 226.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 226.5
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 107.5 Team Total 119.0
Pace +/- 5.8 Pace +/- 6.5
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 19 17 25 30 22 2016-17 24 10 15 20 2

Oklahoma City Thunder

Even though we are only a week and a half into the season, no one would have predicted that the Thunder would have the better record between these two teams when they first met up. I haven’t been this excited about a regular season basketball game in November in my entire life. Russell Westbrook has not hid his feelings about Kevin Durant packing his bags and joining the enemy. The two words I would use to describe Westbrook are bitter and motivated. I love it and wish more players wore their hearts on their sleeve. There is a chance that we could see 50 shot attempts from Westbrook tonight. There is also a good chance that he’s going to get into it with a Warriors’ player or two. All I’m asking to the fantasy basketball gods is that this game stays relatively close.

The Thunder picked up a big win over the Clippers last night and are now the only team that remains unbeaten in the Western Conference. They aren’t getting any love from Vegas tonight though, as they are listed as 11.5-point underdogs. As long as the Thunder can keep the game within 15 or so, the starters from both sides should see their usual allotment of minutes. Russell Westbrook is going to be in my lineups tonight. I don’t care if I have to sacrifice some of my other spots to get him in there. He is an emotional player that is going to put everything he has into this game. It also doesn’t hurt that he is averaging 38 points, ten rebounds, ten assists, and two blocks/steals per game. I couldn’t have been more wrong about Steven Adams last night. To my loyal Grind Down readers, I apologize for the bad take. I like the spot for him tonight, but much prefer Karl-Anthony Towns at center. It’s basically Westbrook or bust when it comes to the Thunder’s fantasy options tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Russell Westbrook PG $12,200 PG $12,900 PG $15,700 38.4 68.9 1.79 40.8% 55.2% 19
Victor Oladipo SG $6,000 PG/SG $6,600 SG $10,700 36 25.0 0.69 20.0% 32.7% 17
Andre Roberson SF $4,300 SG/SF $4,400 SG $7,000 33.9 25.2 0.74 8.1% 12.4% 25
Domantas Sabonis PF $3,700 PF $3,600 PF $8,900 13.5 8.4 0.63 10.6% 30
Steven Adams C $5,300 C $5,900 C $9,400 34.9 27.9 0.80 11.5% 15.3% 22
Enes Kanter PF $5,000 C $5,200 C $9,300 19.4 20.2 1.04 18.6% 25.4% 30

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors had some defensive struggles in the first few games, but everyone was going a bit overboard on the hate. They need to get back in transition and they need to stop admiring their jump shots so often. Those are easy fixes. This team is going to be fine. They made some small improvements against the Blazers the other night and we all saw what happened in that game. Their offense has basically been four players. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all have an adjusted usage rate of at least 18% this season.

The Warriors are 11.5-point favorites tonight against the Thunder, which is the largest spread in the slate. While there is certainly a chance that this game could turn into a route with Oklahoma City playing in the second half of a back-to-back, there is a ton of upside to be had if it stays close. The Warriors have an implied total of 119 points, which is by far the highest in the slate. Stephen Curry has at least four turnovers in three of his first four games, but the real concern is the lack of fantasy production (33.2 fantasy points per game). I love the price and the matchup though, and will have some Curry shares in tournaments. Klay Thompson has been too inconsistent to use in cash games, but like Curry, I will have some shares in tournaments. Kevin Durant seems to think that he and Russell Westbrook are still “brothers.” These two could put on a show tonight and I see both as elite plays. Draymond Green was expected to take the biggest hit in fantasy production this season, but he is averaging 40.4 fantasy points per game. If you have the cap space, he is a viable play at power forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary Rosters Pos Rosters Sal. Minutes FP/Game FP/Min Adj. Usage True Usage DvP
Stephen Curry PG $8,600 PG $8,800 PG $13,700 33 33.2 1.01 26.2% 48.8% 24
Klay Thompson SG $5,700 SG $6,300 SG $11,500 35.6 25.7 0.72 21.2% 32.3% 10
Kevin Durant SF $9,700 SF/PF $10,200 SF $15,100 36.1 52.5 1.45 24.4% 42.5% 15
Draymond Green PF $8,300 PF/C $7,800 PF $12,700 33.6 40.4 1.20 18.2% 36.3% 20
Zaza Pachulia C $3,900 C $3,700 C $8,000 19.6 15.5 0.79 8.9% 23.2% 2
Andre Iguodala SF $4,200 SF $3,500 SF $8,300 27.3 17.4 0.64 13.0% 22.2% 15

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious