NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 3rd - Page Two
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Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 19 | DvP | 11 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 6 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 12 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries
None
The Wizards are playoff bound with not much to play for at this point in the season other than to tune up for the playoffs. The main focus for them right now appears to be working John Wall back into the rotation and Wall’s price point makes him an extremely interesting DFS option today. It’s not often you’ll see his price at under $8K on both sites, but that’s where it’s at. He’d probably be an elite matchup any other day, but he has the problem of facing off against Chris Paul and the Houston Rockets who are 7th in PG DvP and 2nd in PG DRPM. Given the matchup, he’s merely a secondary option for me today. Paul is questionable and has missed the last two games so if he sits again (I think he will), I can definitely give a bump to Wall’s value.
Here’s a look at the other viable Washington players.
Markieff Morris – has only topped 25 fantasy points once in his last five games. Need more than that for his price, especially against P.J. Tucker defense.
Otto Porter – worth a look in GPP’s on DraftKings. Highly volatile but does have 50+ upside and this game does have some shootout potential.
Marcin Gortat – I wish he played more minutes. If he hit 32+, he’d almost be a lock facing a Rockets team that is 19th in center DvP. At the 24-28 he currently plays though he’s only a consideration for me on FanDuel where he is $4,400.
Bradley Beal – probably good for 5x his salary but not much more and has flashed some downside lately with less than 25 fantasy points in three of his last five games. It is James Harden defense though so it’s certainly tempting.
Tomas Satoransky – will take a significant hit with Wall back.
Kelly Oubre – has only topped 28 fantasy points once in his last five games. Can’t take that kind of production at $5,500 on FanDuel and $5,800 on DraftKings.
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 22)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $8,000 | $7,500 | $13,800 | 41.2 | -2.6 | 34.3 | -1.1 | 1.20 | 28.8% | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,900 | $7,200 | $14,900 | 37.1 | -9.0 | 36.2 | -2.6 | 1.02 | 25.8% | 16 | 13 | 14 |
| Otto Porter | $7,500 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 30.7 | 0.4 | 31.8 | -4.7 | 0.97 | 17.3% | 17 | 10 | 13 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,500 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 23.2 | -1.5 | 27.1 | -1.7 | 0.85 | 16.5% | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.2 | 2.7 | 25.4 | -2.0 | 0.91 | 14.1% | 15 | 19 | 3 |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,500 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 21.9 | 0.3 | 27.5 | -1.5 | 0.80 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (if Chris Paul is out)
Secondary Plays – John Wall (if Chris Paul plays), Otto Porter (DK), Marcin Gortat (FD)
Houston Rockets
Notable Injuries
Chris Paul (Questionable)
Nene Hilario (Questionable)
The Rockets have home court through the playoffs locked up which makes me think it’s unlikely Chris Paul plays, but who knows with the NBA these days. I am going to anThey have the 4th highest total on the slate.
With not much to play for, James Harden production has been inconsistent. He put up under 40 fantasy points his last game making it his second game in his last four that he was under 50 fantasy points. He did have a 59 and 61 fantasy point outing the other two games and while that’s a nice number to get, at $11,700 on DraftKings it’s not quite enough to put him at the elite level. Given the likelihood that Chris Paul is out though, I’m fine listing him as a secondary option as 60 fantasy points is really good… even at nearly $12K.
Here’s a look at the rest of the Rockets that are worthy of consideration:
Trevor Ariza – has only topped 25 fantasy points once in his last five games and typically doesn’t have the kind of upside you need in DFS>
P.J. Tucker – he either puts up 10 fantasy points like he did last game or 25-30 fantasy points like he did the two games prior to that. Worth a look on FanDuel at $4K where you have to roster two SF’s.
Clint Capela – Wizards are tough against opposing bigs (6th in center DvP) and he hasn’t topped 35 fantasy points his last three games.
Eric Gordon – that price on DraftKings ($8,300) is ridiculous. I’m not even sure I like the price on FanDuel ($5,300) despite it being $3K less. If Paul is out, he’s at least a secondary option there though.
Gerald Green – viable on FanDuel at only $3,800. Not so much on DraftKings at $5,500. Has topped 24 fantasy points in four of his last five.
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 113.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 22)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,200 | $8,700 | $16,100 | 41.0 | 0.8 | 31.9 | -4.2 | 1.29 | 25.7% | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| James Harden | $11,000 | $11,700 | $21,300 | 53.5 | -5.0 | 35.5 | -2.1 | 1.51 | 34.0% | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,100 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 24.0 | 0.7 | 34.0 | -4.4 | 0.71 | 13.4% | 12 | 15 | 2 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 16.9 | 1.2 | 27.8 | 0.0 | 0.61 | 9.2% | 21 | 4 | 20 |
| Clint Capela | $7,300 | $6,800 | $12,300 | 35.2 | 5.1 | 27.6 | 2.0 | 1.27 | 16.7% | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| Gerald Green | $3,800 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 18.6 | 6.9 | 22.3 | 8.1 | 0.84 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – James Harden, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon (FD and only if Chris Paul is out), Gerald Green (FD)
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Terry Rozier | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 28 | DvP | 2 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 26 | 26 | 3 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Terry Rozier (Out)
Shane Larkin (Out)
The Celtics have the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference locked up with an outside shot at taking over the Raptors for the top seed as they are two games behind coming into tonight’s game. The Celtics are out of point guards as Terry Rozier and Shane Larkin have both been ruled out. There’s not a lot of data to work with in terms of who benefits the most from that situation, but when running a CourtIQ query with those two (and Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart also off the court), Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford all saw substantial usage bumps. Tatum figures to be the player most likely to handle the ball, but he’s priced up enough and has a big enough current role to only make him a secondary option. That’s also where I would put Horford who should also see an increased role in the offense. Marcus Morris put up nearly 45 fantasy points last game and could also be more involved in the offense with the thinned out rotation.
Aron Baynes has played 52 minutes and put up almost 45 fantasy points in his last two games. At just $3,700 on both sites, that’s good value and he’s worth a look as a secondary option. He’s the only other Celtics player I have any interest in unless we get word that one of the bench players is going to start at point guard and is expected to get substantial run – if that were the case they’d be viable as well (if they were to do that, I think it’d most likely be Kadeem Allen).
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | $7,300 | $6,900 | $12,200 | 23.9 | 12.2 | 25.7 | 7.9 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,600 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 25.0 | -1.1 | 30.7 | -3.1 | 0.81 | 18.2% | 14 | 10 | 26 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,600 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 26.1 | 5.0 | 30.6 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 16.9% | 15 | 5 | 26 |
| Al Horford | $7,000 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 32.1 | -1.3 | 31.6 | 0.1 | 1.02 | 17.6% | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 15.2 | 3.6 | 18.2 | 4.3 | 0.84 | 14.4% | 29 | 28 | 7 |
| Marcus Morris | $5,900 | $6,400 | $12,500 | 23.5 | 10.5 | 26.5 | 4.4 | 0.88 | 20.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Shane Larkin | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 0.67 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries
None
The Bucks come in as the #8 seed and have essentially locked up a playoff berth as they are four games up on the #9 seed. They have a tough matchup against a Celtics team that is top 10 in DvP against every position and top 5 at every position but small forward. We don’t really want to target players facing the Celtics so something would need to jump off the page in order to make someone a viable play.
That removes Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton from consideration for me, but I’m still interested in the red-hot Eric Bledsoe as the Celtics will be running without their PGs and he’s put up over 150 fantasy points his last three games and is under $8K on both sites.
Tony Snell has played an average of 30 minutes his last three games. He is priced at $3,600 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings. Lock and load right? Not so fast. He has put up a mind-numbingly bad 30 fantasy points in 90 minutes. That’s like 1 fantasy point every 3 minutes played. In case you didn’t know, that’s really bad. I’m not sure why I even mentioned him other than to call out how bad that is.
The one Milwaukee player I have significant interest in is Jabari Parker. He is $4,800 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings and is starting to flash the potential he had prior to getting injured. While I don’t expect him to put up 50+ fantasy points like he did last game, I expect 25+ minutes and 30+ fantasy points making him an elite option on DraftKings for me and a secondary one on FanDuel.
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (16 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,700 | $7,900 | $14,400 | 34.5 | 10.3 | 31.5 | 3.0 | 1.10 | 23.8% | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 13.4 | -4.7 | 27.7 | -5.8 | 0.48 | 9.7% | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $8,000 | $13,900 | 34.8 | 5.1 | 36.6 | 1.7 | 0.95 | 22.2% | 2 | 9 | 4 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,200 | $10,800 | $19,800 | 51.9 | -3.8 | 37.0 | 0.5 | 1.40 | 28.0% | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| John Henson | $4,900 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.7 | 3.9 | 25.9 | 3.0 | 0.92 | 12.9% | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Jabari Parker | $4,800 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 22.0 | 5.6 | 22.7 | 2.6 | 0.97 | 20.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jabari Parker (DK)
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Jabari Parker (FD)
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.0 |  | Vegas Total | 222.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Quinn Cook | Klay Thompson | Nick Young | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Corey Brewer | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 2 | DvP | 12 | 23 | 12 | 22 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 20 | 7 | 26 | 17 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 2 | |
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries
Kevon Looney (Out)
Shaun Livingston (Out)
Patrick McCaw (Out)
Andre Iguodala (Out)
Despite four players (and Stephen Curry) being out, the Warriors are finally getting healthy with three of their big four expected to play tonight. They don’t have much to play for as they can’t capture the #1 seed and can not be passed for the #2 seed, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see playing time limited which lessens my interest in utilizing any of the big name players from Golden State.
Kevin Durant has to at least be considered in GPPs though as he’s put up 50+ fantasy points his last two games and is under $11.2K on both sites. Jordan Bell is also worth consideration with Kevon Looney ruled out. He’s shown 25+ fantasy point potential when given reasonable playing time and that should be the case tonight.
If you think the Warriors give their starters significant run in a close game, then Draymond Green, Quinn Cook, and Klay Thompson are viable parts of a team or game stack, but that’s the extent to which I would utilize them given their prices and expected production.
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (9 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Cook | $6,200 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 0.77 | 16.8% | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,400 | $6,600 | $13,400 | 30.2 | 0.5 | 34.3 | -1.8 | 0.88 | 20.4% | 22 | 24 | 20 |
| Nick Young | $3,500 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 11.2 | 0.6 | 17.1 | 10.6 | 0.65 | 15.7% | 15 | 8 | 7 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,700 | $11,200 | $20,100 | 47.4 | -5.3 | 34.3 | -6.8 | 1.38 | 26.7% | 12 | 10 | 26 |
| Draymond Green | $8,800 | $8,600 | $16,300 | 37.3 | -0.1 | 32.8 | -0.8 | 1.14 | 16.8% | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 19.0 | 0.9 | 25.4 | -3.5 | 0.75 | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant, Jordan Bell
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
None
The Thunder are fighting to have home court in the opening round of the playoffs as they are currently the #5 seed, just 1/2 a game behind the San Antonio Spurs. They should be motivated and have the second highest total of the night. This of course means that Russell Westbrook is in play and he’s the top “stud” of the day in my opinion. He has put up over 140 fantasy points his last two games and I expect him to approach that average tonight.
Steven Adams is priced up too much for my liking and Draymond Green is a tough defender. Carmelo Anthony rarely shows the upside he used to have and Corey Brewer is inefficient. That leaves Paul George as the lone remaining Thunder starter as a DFS option, and he is, albeit not the elite one that Westbrook is. He’s put up 45 or more fantasy points in two of his last three games, and that’s more than reasonable production at about $8K on both sites.
I have no interest in any of the bench players for the Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,700 | $11,800 | $21,000 | 54.1 | 3.4 | 36.3 | 1.7 | 1.49 | 34.1% | 11 | 12 | 22 |
| Corey Brewer | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 0.72 | 13.0% | 5 | 23 | 9 |
| Paul George | $8,100 | $7,700 | $14,900 | 38.6 | -1.5 | 36.6 | 2.0 | 1.06 | 23.3% | 9 | 12 | 24 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $5,700 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 27.5 | -3.9 | 32.1 | -1.5 | 0.86 | 21.1% | 9 | 22 | 23 |
| Steven Adams | $7,200 | $6,900 | $12,800 | 31.8 | 1.5 | 32.7 | 2.3 | 0.97 | 14.7% | 17 | 12 | 2 |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – Paul George
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -8.5 | Vegas Spread | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.5 | Implied Team Total | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Dorian Finney-Smith | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Dwight Powell | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 12 | 7 | 21 | 11 | DvP | 1 | 8 | 17 | 12 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 28 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
Notable Injuries
Ed Davis (Out)
Maurice Harkless (Out)
Portland seems secure as the #3 seed in the Western Conference with a three game lead on the #4 seed. I don’t expect them to run their starters into the ground, especially in a matchup against one of the worst teams in the league this season in the Dallas Mavericks.
As such, I’m going to avoid the expensive Trail Blazers like Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic as I think they’ll have a hard time paying off their salaries. Evan Turner does interest me as a secondary value option as he should see 30 or so minutes at under $5K on both sites. I’ll roll will a little Al-Farouq Aminu just because of the revenge narrative and I think he’s capable of putting up 35+ fantasy points at his $6K salary.
The bench for the Trail Blazers doesn’t offer a lot in terms of production or value, so that’s the extent of what I am looking at on Portland today.
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.4 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,700 | $9,000 | $17,000 | 43.7 | 9.0 | 36.6 | 1.3 | 1.19 | 29.2% | 25 | 22 | 28 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,700 | $7,000 | $14,700 | 33.7 | 4.8 | 36.1 | 1.0 | 0.93 | 24.7% | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| Evan Turner | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 16.7 | -0.1 | 25.5 | 1.3 | 0.66 | 15.0% | 23 | 7 | 28 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $6,100 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 24.5 | 2.8 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.82 | 13.4% | 8 | 21 | 25 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $8,400 | $7,100 | $13,100 | 31.7 | 10.6 | 26.2 | 1.9 | 1.21 | 22.6% | 22 | 11 | 8 |
| Ed Davis | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 17.5 | -5.6 | 18.9 | -2.1 | 0.93 | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu
Dallas Mavericks
Notable Injuries
Dirk Nowitzki (Questionable)
Dwight Powell (Questionable)
Nerlens Noel (Suspended)
The Mavericks are playing purely for pride right now so it’s going to be a team we want to evaluate for value. Portland has been a fairly good defensive team this season. They are weakest against small forwards which is where Harrison Barnes plays. He’s put up 30+ fantasy points in three of his last five games and is typically a focal point of the Mavericks offense. He’s a secondary option tonight.
The only other player I have interest in on Dallas is Maxi Kleber who should see an increased role with Nerlens Noel suspended. He’s under $4K on both sites. If Dirk Nowitzki or Dwight Powell (or both) sit, and Salah Mejri is ruled active, he’d be a viable value option as well.
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (20 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 27.9 | -0.8 | 29.5 | -1.8 | 0.95 | 27.0% | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 18.2 | 7.9 | 0.54 | 10.9% | 13 | 8 | 24 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,500 | $6,000 | $12,700 | 30.5 | 1.5 | 34.1 | -1.2 | 0.90 | 22.3% | 13 | 17 | 19 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,700 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 24.1 | -2.4 | 24.7 | -2.4 | 0.98 | 18.5% | 15 | 12 | 4 |
| Dwight Powell | $4,300 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 19.4 | -1.6 | 20.9 | -0.4 | 0.93 | 13.8% | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Nerlens Noel | $5,300 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 16.4 | 6.9 | 15.7 | 6.7 | 1.04 | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,400 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 19.5 | 3.5 | 28.6 | -6.4 | 0.68 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Maxi Kleber
Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Paul Millsap | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 26 | 4 | 20 | 28 | 18 | DvP | 6 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 23 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 26 | 22 | 3 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 12 | |
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
None
Indiana is still trying to get home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs as they are currently the #5 seed and are just 1/2 a game behind the #4 seed. They come in healthy and mainly run a eight man rotation with the starters routinely seeing 35+ minutes.
Here’s a quick breakdown of those eight players and how I see them tonight:
Thaddeus Young – viable on FanDuel where he’s just $5,900. He’s topped 30+ fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Bojan Bogdanovic – has played at least 31 minutes the last five games, but only topped 30 fantasy points once. Has a good matchup though and is viable on FanDuel where he is just $5,000.
Myles Turner – has only topped 27 fantasy points once in his last five games. Production doesn’t justify the price.
Darren Collison – good matchup and viable on DraftKings where his price is $5,700. Has topped 30 fantasy points twice in the last five games.
Victor Oladipo – coming off a monster 65+ fantasy point game but did not top 47 in the previous four. At about $9K on both sites, he’s a fringe secondary option and that’s mainly because the Nuggets are missing their best SG defender in Gary Harris.
Domantas Sabonis, Cory Joseph, and Lance Stephenson – every once in awhile one of these three will pop out with a game that goes for 6x or more their price tag, but they typically play for 20 or so minutes and put up 15-20 fantasy points. That’s enough at $4K+ price tags.
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.7 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 27.2 | -2.3 | 29.7 | -1.2 | 0.92 | 18.5% | 30 | 26 | 27 |
| Victor Oladipo | $8,900 | $9,200 | $16,900 | 42.1 | 5.3 | 34.3 | 2.3 | 1.23 | 27.4% | 11 | 4 | 26 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,000 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 21.7 | 4.9 | 31.0 | 3.2 | 0.70 | 16.6% | 14 | 20 | 22 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,900 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 27.6 | 6.2 | 32.6 | 3.3 | 0.85 | 15.5% | 26 | 28 | 3 |
| Myles Turner | $6,600 | $6,000 | $11,800 | 29.6 | -4.8 | 28.8 | 3.0 | 1.03 | 17.5% | 15 | 18 | 11 |
| Lance Stephenson | $3,700 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 20.3 | -4.7 | 22.4 | -3.4 | 0.91 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $4,000 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 24.7 | -8.8 | 24.6 | -2.2 | 1.00 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Joseph | $3,800 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.4 | -0.3 | 27.1 | -2.0 | 0.71 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Thaddeus Young (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic (FD), Darren Collison (DK), Victor Oladipo
Denver Nuggets
Notable Injuries
Wilson Chandler (Questionable)
The Nuggets are fighting for their lives as they are currently the #9 seed in the Western Conference and are one game behind the #8 seed. The Pacers are a tough matchup and are top 11 in DvP against every position except for center. That’s where Nikola Jokic resides and he’s in a great spot to put up a big number against Myles Turner. He’s put up 58+ in his last three games and he’s my favorite center option of the slate.
Paul Millsap has been coming on strong of late with 50+ fantasy points his last two games. He’s a secondary option for me tonight against the moderately tough defense of Thaddeus Young. Will Barton and Jamal Murray always put up decent numbers, but they seldom will put up a GPP winning score and both have tough matchups as the Pacers are top 6 in DvP against both PGs and SGs.
Wilson Chandler missed the last game and is questionable tonight. Trey Lyles played 22 minutes and scored nearly 30 fantasy points and Torrey Craig played 36 minutes and also scored nearly 30 fantasy points in his absence. If Chandler sits again, Lyles and Craig are both secondary value options.
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.2 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 ( of 22)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $7,500 | $6,500 | $13,800 | 27.8 | 7.7 | 31.3 | 7.4 | 0.89 | 21.3% | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| Will Barton | $7,200 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 30.1 | -0.2 | 32.8 | 4.3 | 0.92 | 19.8% | 23 | 6 | 1 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 21.8 | 0.5 | 31.4 | 1.3 | 0.69 | 13.6% | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| Paul Millsap | $7,100 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 32.0 | 4.1 | 29.6 | 3.5 | 1.08 | 20.0% | 17 | 11 | 5 |
| Nikola Jokic | $10,700 | $9,800 | $18,300 | 42.7 | 9.5 | 32.1 | 6.5 | 1.33 | 22.4% | 25 | 23 | 12 |
| Mason Plumlee | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 20.7 | -5.8 | 19.7 | -7.6 | 1.05 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Devin Harris | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.2 | -0.6 | 19.0 | 6.7 | 0.80 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |