NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 26th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks – 7:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 15 | DvP | 4 | 25 | 1 | 12 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 28 | 27 | 28 | 9 | 18 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 21 | |
Toronto Raptors
I hope everyone had a terrific Christmas. While I love the holidays, I also love my routine. I’m ready to get back to grinding NBA every night without having to make rash lineup decisions on my phone while at a family or friend gathering. We kick off tonight’s eight game slate with a potential snooze fest between the Raptors and Mavericks. This is a pace-down matchup for Toronto, as Dallas is ranked 27th in pace of play. The Raptors’ implied total is set at only 107 points, which is four points below their season average.
I’m not sure why the pricing algorithms love Kyle Lowry so much. He always seems $500+ overpriced. On the season, he is averaging 32.7 minutes and 35 fantasy points per game, yet he’s consistently priced above $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I have no qualms about his matchup against the Mavericks, but he seems a bit overpriced to consider a core play. DeMar DeRozan leads the Raptors in true usage (28%) and is averaging 43 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s viable in cash games given his high floor, but I’m not sure he has the 50+ fantasy point upside that we are looking for in tournaments.
OG Anunoby has seen a boost in playing time recently, but has only topped 13 fantasy points two times in his last nine games. Serge Ibaka is my favorite target from the Raptors. His minutes are trending upward (especially in close games) and he is averaging 31 fantasy points in his last four outings. Jonas Valanciunas could dominate the glass while on the floor, but his minutes are far from secure, especially in a game where both teams could play small. I’d rather play a much cheaper Jakob Poeltl, who has scored over 25 fantasy points in three straight games.
Notable Injuries
Lucas Nogueira (Questionable)
C.J. Miles (Questionable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (13 of 16)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,200 | $8,200 | $14,700 | 35.2 | -2.7 | 32.7 | -2.1 | 1.08 | 21.1% | 24 | 14 | 28 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,900 | $8,800 | $15,900 | 39.2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | -0.1 | 1.14 | 28.1% | 9 | 11 | 27 |
| OG Anunoby | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 21.0 | 4.6 | 0.61 | 11.0% | 26 | 15 | 28 |
| Serge Ibaka | $6,400 | $5,800 | $11,300 | 26.5 | 4.1 | 27.9 | 0.8 | 0.95 | 17.3% | 5 | 18 | 9 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,500 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 22.3 | 0.6 | 21.0 | -0.4 | 1.06 | 17.2% | 24 | 15 | 18 |
| Delon Wright | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 20.6 | 0.6 | 0.83 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.1 | 6.4 | 17.3 | 4.7 | 0.99 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan (Cash), Serge Ibaka, Jakob Poeltl
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have lost eight of their last ten games and own the worst record in the Western Conference. Even though they are playing at home, they draw a difficult matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Mavericks have the fifth lowest implied total on the board, although it is slightly higher than their season average.
Dennis Smith has yet to play more than 26 minutes since returning from injury. Even though his price is down, we need more minutes from Smith to warrant consideration in a difficult matchup. I have more interest in J.J. Barea off the bench, who is averaging 29 fantasy points over his last four games. Barea is very cheap on DraftKings at a price of only $4,600. Wesley Matthews grades out as a decent value and he does draw the best matchup of the five starters.
Harrison Barnes has a high floor, especially when we expect the Mavericks to be competitive. Tonight’s game features a 5.5-point spread, so Barnes should see a full complement of minutes. Even though the Raptors have been tough on opposing shooting guards, Barnes is currently underpriced on both FanDuel ($6,300) and DraftKings ($6,200). I haven’t played anyone in the Mavericks’ frontcourt this season and I don’t plan to start tonight against Toronto.
Notable Injuries
None
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 100.0 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (8 of 16)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 25.4 | -5.7 | 27.6 | -4.3 | 0.92 | 26.6% | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Wesley Matthews | $4,600 | $4,400 | $9,600 | 21.7 | -2.8 | 34.3 | -1.6 | 0.63 | 15.6% | 30 | 25 | 25 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,300 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 30.8 | 2.2 | 34.8 | -1.5 | 0.89 | 22.1% | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,500 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 12.9 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 0.3 | 0.69 | 11.2% | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 22.9 | 2.1 | 25.4 | 2.2 | 0.90 | 18.3% | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| J.J. Barea | $5,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 24.1 | 5.1 | 23.0 | 1.4 | 1.05 | 25.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,100 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.1 | 4.7 | 29.0 | 3.7 | 0.66 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes, J.J. Barea (DK)
Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews
Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.3 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Reggie Bullock | Anthony Tolliver | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 18 | 30 | 14 | 17 | DvP | 20 | 10 | 6 | 19 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 24 | 13 | 9 | 28 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 2 | 29 | 4 | 10 | |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won seven of their last ten games and have jumped all the way up to fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. If you asked most DFS players what the Pacers’ record was, very few would actually know. They have been a pleasant surprise this season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked 21st in pace of play and eighth in points allowed per game. Indiana has an implied total of only 102.3 points and they have the second worst projected point differential (-6.3 points) on the board.
Darren Collison has flashed upside at times this season, but I don’t want to use one of my coveted point guard spots on him in a pace-down game against the Pistons. Victor Oladipo is playing like a man possessed this season. He is averaging 43 fantasy points per game with an elite true usage of 27%. With no Avery Bradley, the Pistons don’t have any elite wing defenders. Oladipo is an excellent tournament play, although his price might be a little too high in a cash game setting.
Bojan Bogdanovic continues to produce and he continues to play big minutes for the Pacers. He draws the best individual matchup of the five starters and he’s priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’ll never go out of my way to force Bojan into my lineups, but he’s certainly a viable small forward target. Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner are mediocre plays at best. Young has been in bad form recently (averaging 19 FPs over his last four games) and Turner will have to deal with Andre Drummond.
Notable Injuries
None
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (15 of 16)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 27.5 | -1.0 | 30.7 | -1.1 | 0.89 | 18.5% | 15 | 3 | 24 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,600 | $9,400 | $17,200 | 43.0 | 4.1 | 34.7 | 2.9 | 1.24 | 27.4% | 1 | 18 | 13 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,800 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 21.1 | 1.4 | 31.7 | 1.1 | 0.67 | 15.8% | 28 | 30 | 9 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,600 | $5,800 | $11,900 | 28.5 | -9.8 | 33.3 | -4.3 | 0.85 | 15.4% | 12 | 14 | 28 |
| Myles Turner | $8,400 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 32.8 | 1.1 | 30.5 | 1.3 | 1.08 | 17.6% | 16 | 17 | 3 |
| Cory Joseph | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 17.7 | 2.3 | 24.9 | 2.3 | 0.71 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 19.4 | 1.8 | 22.3 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 25.3 | 4.2 | 24.3 | 1.1 | 1.04 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young (FD), Myles Turner (DK)
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have lost six of their last ten games, but are still fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. They have played well at home (10-5) this season and draw one of the best matchups of tonight’s slate. On the season, the Pacers are ranked 11th in pace of play, 22nd in points allowed per game, and 21st in rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the seventh highest overall and 1.6 points above their season average.
Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith continue to be a frustrating point guard duo. While they are a nice one-two punch in real life, it’s hard to predict their fantasy production on a nightly basis. In an eight game slate, both are fairly easy fades given the number of options we have at the position. Reggie Bullock is averaging 22 fantasy points over his last four games, but it feels like we are point chasing. He has a difficult matchup on both ends of the floor with Victor Oladipo starting opposite him.
Anthony Tolliver could be a sneaky value play if he draws another start at small forward. In his last three games, he has played 23, 30, and 35 minutes and has scored at least 19 fantasy points in each. Tobias Harris is often the forgotten man at power forward. The best way to attack Indiana is with a talented frontcourt. Harris deserves consideration if you are stuck and need a power forward in his price range. As long as this game stays close, Andre Drummond should play 32+ minutes in a premier matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked 26th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against centers. Drummond has faced the Pacers three times already this season and has scored at least 43 fantasy points in every game.
Notable Injuries
Avery Bradley (Out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (7 of 16)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,600 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 25.9 | -5.5 | 27.3 | -2.6 | 0.95 | 25.7% | 13 | 20 | 10 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 18.7 | 10.8 | 0.60 | 10.4% | 15 | 10 | 2 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 13.9 | 5.7 | 19.8 | 7.5 | 0.70 | 14.0% | 7 | 6 | 29 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,800 | $6,100 | $11,000 | 28.4 | -2.7 | 32.8 | -2.4 | 0.87 | 20.8% | 24 | 19 | 4 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,300 | $9,300 | $17,100 | 42.4 | -3.2 | 32.4 | -5.1 | 1.31 | 18.2% | 26 | 30 | 10 |
| Ish Smith | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 20.0 | 2.3 | 0.90 | 24.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Anthony Tolliver, Tobias Harris
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Jonathon Simmons | Wes Iwundu | Mario Hezonja | Bismack Biyombo | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | Kelly Olynyk | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 6 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 20 | 30 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 30 | 22 | 19 | 21 | |
Orlando Magic
The Magic have basically been signing players off the street lately, as they’ve been dealing with a number of injuries. Nikola Vucevic is the latest player to get added to the injury report. He is going to miss 6-8 weeks with a fracture in his hand. Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Jonathan Isaac are all listed as questionable, as they all participated in parts of shootaround. This game tips off at 7:30 ET, but we should know the availability of these three players before lineups lock.
Everyone has that one player that we target more often than we should. For me, it’s Elfrid Payton. He’s been good to me over the years, even though our relationship is rocky at times. Regardless of whether or not Gordon and Fournier suit up, I have a ton of interest in Payton tonight. With Nikola Vucevic off the floor, Payton averages 1.30 FP/min this season, which is a massive boost of +0.28. The Heat are stout defensive as a whole, but Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson are both below-average defenders.
We have to take a wait and see with the rest of the Magic. Jonathon Simmons and Mario Hezonja would be solid options if Gordon and Fournier are ruled out. If Gordon and Fournier are active, they become intriguing plays themselves. Keep an eye on the injury news and be ready to adjust accordingly. With Vucevic out, the center minutes will be split between Bismack Biyombo and Marreese Speights. Seeing as how Speights has yet to play more than 21 minutes this season, I’m giving the edge to Biyombo. If he draws the start, he will become one of the top value plays on DraftKings ($3,800).
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Questionable)
Aaron Gordon (Questionable)
Evan Fournier (Questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.4 (14 of 16)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,600 | 28.7 | 9.4 | 28.6 | 2.8 | 1.00 | 20.6% | 6 | 9 | 21 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,300 | $7,100 | $13,400 | 23.9 | 3.9 | 28.8 | 2.6 | 0.83 | 21.0% | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| Wes Iwundu | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 0.55 | 12.8% | 10 | 12 | 3 |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 11.4 | 17.6 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 0.78 | 15.0% | 8 | 15 | 12 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 12.3 | -3.1 | 15.3 | 0.4 | 0.80 | 10.4% | 22 | 6 | 1 |
| D.J. Augustin | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 16.1 | -2.4 | 21.6 | 6.4 | 0.74 | 16.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marreese Speights | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 10.8 | -5.1 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 0.89 | 23.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Adreian Payne | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.82 | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Bismack Biyombo (if he starts)
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash)
Note: Take a wait and see approach with the rest of the Magic players.
Miami Heat
The Heat have also been bit hard by the injury bug. They have already ruled out James Johnson, Dion Waiters, and Justise Winslow for tonight’s game. Luckily, they are expected to have Hassan Whiteside back in the lineup for the first time in weeks. They draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as they host the Magic. On the season, Orlando is ranked sixth in pace of play, 29th in points allowed per game, and dead last in rebounding differential. The Magic have the fourth highest implied total (106.5 points) and the second best projected point differential (+6.4) of the slate.
Goran Dragic missed three games with an elbow injury, but was able to log 29 minutes the other night against the Pelicans. He should see his usual 30+ minute role tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 26th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against point guards. Dragic’s slump is a concern, but this is what we like to call a slump-busting matchup. Assuming he stays in the starting lineup, I actually prefer Tyler Johnson over Dragic when we factor in salaries. Johnson should play minutes in the low to mid-30s in a dream matchup against Orlando. Wayne Ellington has quietly been playing well in the last two weeks and should see above 30 minutes again tonight.
With all of the injuries, Josh Richardson has seen a hefty boost in playing time, usage, and fantasy production. Over his last four games, he is averaging 38 minutes and 37 fantasy points. His price has come up quite a bit (especially on DraftKings), but he’s a core play for me once again. The minutes, usage, and matchup are all too good to pass up right now. With Whiteside back in the lineup, I will be taking a wait and see with this frontcourt. He will eventually cut into the production of Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, and Jordan Mickey.
Notable Injuries
James Johnson (Out)
Dion Waiters (Out)
Justise Winslow (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.1 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.4 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.2 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.0 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,400 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 28.7 | -5.9 | 31.3 | -1.7 | 0.92 | 24.3% | 26 | 30 | 26 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,800 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 21.6 | 10.1 | 28.4 | 7.4 | 0.76 | 17.3% | 28 | 28 | 30 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,000 | $6,800 | $12,400 | 23.1 | 13.7 | 33.2 | 4.7 | 0.70 | 15.3% | 29 | 20 | 22 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $6,700 | $6,100 | $12,000 | 21.6 | 8.1 | 22.5 | 6.9 | 0.96 | 17.1% | 24 | 30 | 19 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,400 | $7,100 | $13,000 | 36.7 | 26.8 | 1.37 | 19.3% | 23 | 13 | 21 | ||
| Jordan Mickey | $3,800 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 14.1 | 3.0 | 14.7 | 7.5 | 0.96 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,600 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 15.7 | 5.0 | 22.7 | 12.1 | 0.69 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bam Adebayo | $5,300 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 16.9 | 8.3 | 19.6 | 10.1 | 0.86 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson (FD), Wayne Ellington (DK)
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (DK), Wayne Ellington (FD), Goran Dragic
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 26 | DvP | 19 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 19 | 23 | 27 | 3 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 3 | 23 | 23 | 23 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have won seven of their last ten games and no longer have one of the worst two records in basketball. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are surprisingly bad defensively. Milwaukee is ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebounding differential. The Bulls have an implied total of 102.8 points, which is three points above their season average. As long as this game stays close, this could be one of the better ones to target for DFS.
Kris Dunn is a talented point guard that is having a breakout season. While I’m a big fan, I don’t want to pay a premium for him on the road in a difficult matchup. The Bucks are ranked fifth in efficiency and eighth in DvP against point guards this season. Justin Holiday has scored at least 22 fantasy points in seven straight games. At his price point, a floor of 20 fantasy points is hard to find. I will be going right back to the Holiday well tonight, as we’ve seen 35+ minute upside from him when he is playing well.
Denzel Valentine is too volatile to trust in cash games, but he’s priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. At the very least, he’s worth a look in large-field tournaments in a great game environment for fantasy production. It’s hard to trust anyone in the Bulls’ frontcourt right now. Lauri Markkanen, Robin Lopez, Nikola Mirotic, and Bobby Portis are all playing between 20-26 minutes per game. I love using centers against the Bucks (30th in efficiency) though, so I may roll out Lopez in a tournament lineup or two.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 99.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (6 of 16)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,400 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 30.7 | 1.6 | 28.3 | 1.1 | 1.08 | 24.3% | 5 | 8 | 19 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,200 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 26.7 | 0.4 | 33.4 | -1.8 | 0.80 | 17.7% | 11 | 5 | 23 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,700 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 21.7 | 3.9 | 28.5 | -0.5 | 0.76 | 15.9% | 14 | 3 | 27 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 27.7 | -4.0 | 29.9 | -4.6 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,100 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 24.3 | -3.6 | 29.5 | -6.3 | 0.82 | 18.1% | 30 | 26 | 3 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 30.0 | 0.3 | 25.2 | -1.2 | 1.19 | 23.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 19.7 | -6.0 | 23.5 | -1.7 | 0.84 | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bobby Portis | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 24.2 | -0.5 | 21.2 | -3.3 | 1.14 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Justin Holiday
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), Denzel Valentine (GPP), Robin Lopez (GPP)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks seem to be getting better on an individual basis, but their team seems set on a .500 record. They should be able to make the playoffs this year, but you never know with this team. Tonight they draw a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the highest on the board and four points above their season average.
Eric Bledsoe minutes have not been impacted by the return of Matthew Dellavedova, Tony Snell, and Jason Terry. Over his last four games, Bledsoe is averaging 34 minutes and 38 fantasy points per contest. Kris Dunn is an excellent defender, but the Bulls as a whole are ranked 23rd in efficiency against point guards. Khris Middleton plays 38-40 minutes in close games, which always puts him on my radar at shooting guard. Unfortunately, his price is inflated right now on both FanDuel ($8,000) and DraftKings ($8,400).
Giannis Antetokounmpo is easily the top overall play of the slate. Most of the superstars in the NBA played on Christmas and Giannis is really the only one in action tonight. Even before we consider his matchup, that alone makes him a tough fade. Add in the fact that the Bulls struggle to defend point guards, small forwards, and power forwards and Giannis should be considered a core play in all formats. John Henson has seen a nice boost in playing time recently and is a decent value play on DraftKings ($4,700).
Notable Injuries
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.1 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (4 of 16)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,600 | $7,500 | $14,900 | 33.6 | 4.5 | 31.5 | 2.4 | 1.07 | 24.9% | 23 | 19 | 5 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.3 | -2.3 | 31.0 | -5.3 | 0.49 | 9.3% | 13 | 19 | 3 |
| Khris Middleton | $8,000 | $8,400 | $15,200 | 35.7 | 3.5 | 37.2 | 0.9 | 0.96 | 22.8% | 25 | 21 | 23 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,800 | $11,500 | $21,300 | 55.9 | -3.0 | 38.0 | 1.6 | 1.47 | 29.1% | 28 | 22 | 23 |
| John Henson | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 22.8 | -0.4 | 23.9 | 3.0 | 0.95 | 12.7% | 20 | 18 | 23 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.5 | 3.6 | 30.5 | 1.9 | 0.77 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, John Henson (DK)
Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 4 | DvP | 26 | 17 | 27 | 26 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 23 | 4 | 21 | 16 | |
Brooklyn Nets
In today’s Expert Survey (available to Premium members), the Nets were my selection as my team to fade completely. They were a fairly obvious choice, as they draw a matchup against the Spurs in San Antonio. Not only does San Antonio play at the second slowest pace, but they are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Nets have the lowest implied total (98 points) and the worst projected point differential (-9.6) on the board. We’ve seen some flashes from Spencer Dinwiddie and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but I have a hard time playing them in an eight game slate when they are huge underdogs on the road.
Notable Injuries
None
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.6 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.0 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -9.6 (16 of 16)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.4 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,400 | $6,300 | $12,900 | 28.6 | 1.1 | 27.0 | 2.3 | 1.06 | 23.0% | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| Allen Crabbe | $5,000 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 20.4 | 1.4 | 28.6 | 3.8 | 0.71 | 16.6% | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,900 | $5,000 | $10,400 | 26.8 | 1.3 | 29.2 | -2.6 | 0.92 | 17.8% | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,100 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 29.0 | 4.7 | 28.3 | 3.5 | 1.03 | 19.9% | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 16.9 | -1.0 | 19.1 | 1.1 | 0.88 | 14.6% | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,700 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 24.3 | 1.5 | 26.7 | 2.2 | 0.91 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are expected to be at full strength tonight, which has been a rarity this season. They draw a premier matchup against the Nets, who are ranked fourth in pace of play and 27th in points allowed per game. The Spurs have an implied total of 109 points, which is the second highest on the board and eight points above their season average. The question isn’t whether or not the matchup is elite, it’s whether or not the starters will see a full complement of minutes. The spread is set at 11 points and we all know what happens when the Spurs build a big lead.
I’m not particularly bullish or bearish on the Spurs tonight. A case can be made to play them (great matchup) and to fade them (potential blowout). With everyone healthy, there isn’t a player in particularly that really stands out as an elite play. The opportunity cost of playing Tony Parker at point guard is high, Kawhi Leonard is still on a strict minute restriction, LaMarcus Aldridge see a big decline in usage with Leonard on the floor, and Rudy Gay minutes are trending in the wrong direction. My favorite play here is Pau Gasol, who is averaging 41 fantasy points over his last four games. If he plays 25 minutes tonight, he should be able to eclipse 30 fantasy points again. However, he’ll be the first player to see the bench if this game gets out of hand.
Notable Injuries
Kawhi Leonard (Probable)
Danny Green (Probable)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 7.9 (1 of 16)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 18.4 | 3.7 | 20.0 | 3.9 | 0.92 | 22.5% | 28 | 26 | 3 |
| Danny Green | $4,300 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 21.8 | -6.0 | 27.7 | -3.6 | 0.79 | 14.8% | 27 | 17 | 23 |
| Kawhi Leonard | $6,700 | $6,100 | $13,200 | 23.8 | -4.7 | 17.2 | 0.8 | 1.38 | 25.0% | 6 | 27 | 4 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,400 | $8,500 | $15,000 | 38.5 | -6.0 | 33.4 | 0.4 | 1.15 | 25.9% | 22 | 26 | 21 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,000 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 28.1 | 12.5 | 25.0 | 3.7 | 1.12 | 18.1% | 29 | 28 | 16 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,300 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 23.3 | -10.3 | 23.1 | -3.5 | 1.01 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Patty Mills | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 18.0 | -6.1 | 25.0 | -1.5 | 0.72 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |