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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-07 02:55:43

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Washington Wizards
orlandonba Vegas Total 199.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 98.0 Team Total 101.0
Pace +/- 0.0 Pace +/- -2.7
Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 8 10 13 23 15 2016-17 15 6 9 10 27

Orlando Magic

🎵 …REUNITED AND IT FEELS SO GOOD… 🎵

I am back from my vacation and ready to get back at it. After six days of partying in Las Vegas and New Orleans, a quiet night at home watching basketball sounds fantastic. I want to give a big thanks to Chirag Hira (INSPYR) and our managing editor, Scott Krones, for filling in and finding cover for me while I was gone.

The first game of the evening should be a slow-paced one. The Magic and Wizards are both ranked below the league average in pace of play and the over/under for the game is set at a measly 199 points. The Magic are looking for their third win in a row tonight and they draw a fairly exploitable matchup against a Wizards’ defense that is ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Orlando’s implied total of 98 points seems low, but it is actually 4.8 points above their season average.

John Wall has never been known as an elite defender, but the Wizards are ranked eighth in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. D.J. Augustin hasn’t lit the DFS world on fire since entering the starting lineup, but in five starts he is averaging 23.2 minutes and 18 fantasy points per game. His price is close to min-salary across the industry, making him a serviceable value play at point guard. Evan Fournier continues to be the most reliable player in Orlando’s lineup, averaging 33.9 minutes and 25.8 fantasy points per game this season. He is my favorite target for cash games from the Magic, although he’s far from a must play. Serge Ibaka has played well over the last two weeks, but I have a hard time paying in the mid-$6,000 range for him on FanDuel and DraftKings. Bismack Biyombo hasn’t had a big fantasy outing in a while, but he has played at least 30 minutes in every game since entering the starting lineup. He has scored at least 18 fantasy points in each of his last five games and makes for a high-floor punt play at center tonight. Nikola Vucevic has played well off the bench, but he no longer has that 35-minute upside that he had as a starter. He is a deep GPP flier tonight against the Wizards.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
D.J. Augustin $3,900 $3,800 $7,400 0.74 20.0 2.0 14.8 0.6 23.8% -4.5% 8
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,400 $9,900 0.76 33.9 -1.1 25.8 -1.8 24.0% -2.2% 10
Aaron Gordon $4,000 $4,200 $8,600 0.75 25.8 -3.1 19.4 -1.4 20.0% 0.3% 13
Serge Ibaka $6,500 $6,300 $9,900 0.91 30.4 0.0 27.8 6.5 20.2% -1.4% 23
Bismack Biyombo $4,300 $4,700 $7,800 0.74 25.5 6.5 18.8 2.5 12.6% -2.4% 15
Nikola Vucevic $7,400 $6,100 $10,600 1.15 27.7 0.9 31.9 2.5 24.6% -1.7% 15
Elfrid Payton $5,100 $4,400 $8,700 0.83 28.8 -3.6 24.0 -9.2 23.5% -4.7% 8

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier (Cash), Bismack Biyombo (FD)

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (GPP), Bismack Biyombo (DK), D.J. Augustin, Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards won last night to move to 5-5 in their last ten games. They draw a pace-down matchup tonight against the Magic, who are quietly ranked third in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The addition of Bismack Biyombo to the starting lineup really helps solidify their defense as a whole and the slow pace of play doesn’t hurt either. The Wizards have an implied total of 101 points tonight, which is right around the average of the 12 teams in action tonight. Their total is also 2.7 points below their season average, which gives them the sixth worst projected point differential in the slate. Scott Brooks has talked about limiting his player’s minutes all season, but a lack of depth has kept him from being able to do so. Here is a quick breakdown of the starter’s minutes played last night and their average minutes played in back-to-back games this season:

John Wall: Last night – 36, Average on back-to-backs – 34.0
Bradley Beal: Last night – 36, Average on back-to-backs – 35.5
Otto Porter: Last night – 36, Average on back-to-backs – 33.8
Markieff Morris: Last night – 33, Average on back-to-backs – 33.8
Marcin Gortat: Last night – 33, Average on back-to-backs – 34.0

As we can see above, each of the five starters have averaged between 33-35 minutes per game in the second half of back-to-backs this season. While I don’t expect anyone to play minutes in the upper 30s or low 40s, all starters should log close to their season averages tonight. I fully expect the Wizards to say that John Wall minutes will be monitored tonight, but that hasn’t meant anything so far (Bradley Beal played 36 minutes last night when his minutes were monitored). Wall is always in play at home and he’s a bit underpriced on DraftKings ($8,700). Beal’s price is up to $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and while I don’t mind him in tournaments, the Magic have done a nice job of containing opposing shooting guards this season. Otto Porter may end up leading the Wizards in minutes tonight and is worth a look in all formats given the lack of options at small forward tonight. Markieff Morris is a volatile player in DFS, but it’s hard to pass on that $4,700 price tag on FanDuel regardless of his matchup. Marcin Gortat is a safe cash game option with a high floor, although Bismack Biyombo is a much better defender than Nikola Vucevic and I expect Orlando’s DvP ranking against centers to improve moving forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
John Wall $9,500 $8,700 $13,100 1.22 35.5 3.4 43.2 2.8 35.1% -4.0% 15
Bradley Beal $7,100 $7,000 $11,000 0.89 34.6 1.4 30.9 0.4 26.2% 0.1% 6
Otto Porter $6,300 $6,600 $9,600 0.89 34.7 2.8 31.0 1.1 16.0% -2.8% 9
Markieff Morris $4,700 $5,200 $9,100 0.74 31.6 4.3 23.5 3.6 20.5% -1.4% 10
Marcin Gortat $6,400 $6,100 $9,900 0.87 35.2 1.8 30.5 7.1 13.9% 3.0% 27

Elite Plays – John Wall (DK), Markieff Morris (FD), Otto Porter (FD)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD), Markieff Morris (DK), Otto Porter (DK), Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat

New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

New York Knicks Miami Heat
newyorknba Vegas Total 202.5 miaminba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 100.8 Team Total 101.8
Pace +/- -2.6 Pace +/- 0.1
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Wayne Ellington Rodney McGruder Josh McRoberts Hassan Whiteside
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 3 5 19 5 24 2016-17 10 26 13 11 25

New York Knicks

The Knicks have won three games in a row and seven of their last ten overall. They appear to be a playoff contender after a rough start to the season. Tonight they head to Miami for a pace-down game against the Heat. This game has a fairly low over/under of 202.5 points, but the spread is set at a single point, so at least we can expect a close game throughout. This is far from an ideal matchup for fantasy production, as the Heat are ranked 24th in pace of play and fifth in points allowed per game. The Knicks have an implied total of only 100.8 points, which is the sixth lowest in the slate and 3.8 points below their season average. Courtney Lee was originally listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but Jeff Hornacek expects him to play.

Derrick Rose has had a roller coaster season thus far, but at least he has been healthy through their first 20 games. He is averaging 32.2 minutes and 29.3 fantasy points on the season, but draws a tough matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked third in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. I’ve been on the Rose train recently, but he’s an easy fade tonight in Miami. Carmelo Anthony draws a decent matchup against a Heat team that is missing their best on-ball defender in Justise Winslow. However, if I’m paying up at small forward tonight, I’d rather target Gordon Hayward against the Suns or Kawhi Leonard against the Wolves. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 38.1 minutes and 36.9 fantasy points in his last five games. He’s certainly in play at power forward, but it’s a good night to punt the position with so much value available. Joakim Noah is an intriguing GPP play on DraftKings. He could easily end up playing minutes in the upper 20s, as he gives the Knicks the best chance of containing Hassan Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Derrick Rose $6,600 $6,400 $8,900 0.91 32.2 -1.8 29.3 -0.9 27.9% -0.2% 3
Courtney Lee $3,900 $3,600 $7,100 0.57 29.7 -21.8 17.1 -4.4 14.7% 7.1% 5
Carmelo Anthony $7,600 $7,600 $12,400 1.02 34.1 1.2 34.7 -3.0 28.7% -1.8% 19
Kristaps Porzingis $7,600 $8,000 $12,000 1.02 34.3 3.8 34.9 2.0 23.7% 0.6% 5
Joakim Noah $4,100 $3,700 $8,000 0.89 22.6 2.1 20.1 -10.1 12.9% -3.6% 24
Justin Holiday $4,100 $4,500 $6,500 0.72 19.1 5.4 13.8 6.5 16.5% 0.9% 5

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, Joakim Noah (DK)

Miami Heat

The Heat didn’t have a high win projection from Vegas at the start of the season, but they still have to be considered a disappointment through their first 20 games. Granted, they have been decimated by injuries, but they should still have more than seven wins with the talent they have. They have a winnable game tonight against the Knicks at home, as they are favored by a single point. The Knicks present a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency on the season. The Heat have an implied total of 101.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 4.7 points above their season average.

Goran Dragic has scored at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last four games and should continue to see a usage boost with all of the injuries to the Heat. He draws a decent matchup against Derrick Rose, who has never been known as an elite defender. The only issue that I have with Dragic is his rising price tag. Wayne Ellington has consistently been playing minutes in the low 30s and is a decent punt at shooting guard, especially if Josh Richardson is unable to suit up tonight. Tyler Johnson would also benefit in Richardson’s absence and he is averaging 28.7 fantasy points in his last three outings. Rodney McGruder and Josh McRoberts have both taken advantage of their boost in playing time, averaging 16.9 and 16.4 fantasy points respectively, in their last three games. Hassan Whiteside should be able to dominate the glass tonight against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 25th against centers on the season. He is an elite play in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Goran Dragic $7,000 $7,300 $11,100 0.96 32.9 2.6 31.6 5.3 29.1% 3.9% 10
Wayne Ellington $4,300 $4,200 $6,900 0.66 32.7 1.9 21.7 2.0 17.1% 0.6% 26
Rodney McGruder $3,800 $3,600 $6,000 0.54 23.8 9.5 12.9 4.0 13.2% -3.2% 13
Josh McRoberts $3,600 $3,200 $7,000 0.80 14.8 8.0 11.9 4.5 20.2% 0.9% 11
Hassan Whiteside $9,100 $9,600 $13,900 1.26 33.2 3.2 41.8 3.5 22.4% -2.4% 25
Tyler Johnson $5,200 $5,200 $7,900 0.84 29.8 0.8 25.2 3.5 21.3% 2.9% 10
Josh Richardson $4,600 $4,800 $7,600 0.67 28.1 18.8 20.1% 26

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Wayne Ellington

Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Detroit Pistons
chicagonba Vegas Total 199.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 96.8 Team Total 102.8
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- -1.1
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 25 7 2 7 13 2016-17 4 11 13 26 17

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls suffered a tough loss at home last night against the Blazers, although they were without their starting point guard. Rajon Rondo was suspended for one game, but will be back in the lineup tonight against the Pistons. We have a lot of subpar matchups in tonight’s slate and this game fits right into the theme. Both of teams are ranked in the bottom ten in pace of play and the top ten in points allowed per game. The Pistons are far from an ideal matchup, as they are ranked second in points allowed per game, sixth in defensive efficiency, and eighth in rebounding differential this season. The Bulls have an implied total of only 96.8 points, which is the second lowest in the slate and 7.2 points below their season average.

Given the low team total, this would typically be a good spot to fade the Bulls as a whole. However, Rajon Rondo will be playing on fresh legs and he draws the best matchup of the five starters. On the season, Detroit is ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. That number will likely get better now that Reggie Jackson is back, but he is still playing with a minute-restriction. Rondo, meanwhile, has scored at least 34 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler both logged heavy minutes last night and have a difficult matchup against a Pistons’ defense that is ranked seventh against shooting guards and second against small forwards. Butler has been fairly matchup-proof this season, but there are better options at his position. Taj Gibson has been a decent cash game option recently, but I don’t want to buy high on him in a difficult matchup. Robin Lopez would have more appeal if there weren’t so many great options at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Rajon Rondo $6,200 $6,500 $9,500 0.91 30.5 -0.5 27.8 0.0 22.1% -0.6% 25
Dwyane Wade $7,000 $6,200 $10,600 1.03 31.1 5.0 31.9 9.5 29.9% 6.5% 7
Jimmy Butler $9,200 $8,900 $13,100 1.16 35.9 2.2 41.8 5.9 29.4% 0.2% 2
Taj Gibson $5,900 $5,800 $8,900 0.90 28.9 2.4 26.0 0.7 18.9% -1.9% 7
Robin Lopez $5,100 $4,900 $8,600 0.85 28.1 0.3 24.0 -1.5 17.2% 0.5% 13
Nikola Mirotic $4,000 $4,200 $7,900 0.85 22.6 -2.0 19.1 -0.1 19.1% 0.4% 7

Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are 5-5 in their last ten games and sit at .500 on the season at 11-11. They are listed as 6-point favorites tonight against the visiting Bulls, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but Vegas likes the Pistons in this spot. They have an implied total of 102.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 2.8 points above their season average. The Bulls are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, but they are mediocre when it comes to points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.

Reggie Jackson made his season debut against the Magic on Sunday, scoring 22 fantasy points in 23 minutes of action. He is going to be a viable fantasy option moving forward, but Stan Van Gundy said that he is still on a minute-restriction for tonight’s game. Once Jackson starts playing 30 minutes, we can safely fire him up in all formats. With Jackson back, Ish Smith is no longer on the fantasy radar. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been terrific in his last three games, averaging 33.2 fantasy points per contest. Assuming he matches up against Dwyane Wade, we have to like that matchup from a DFS standpoint. I’m not a huge fan of targeting small forwards against the Bulls, which makes Marcus Morris an easy fade. Chicago has surprisingly struggled against power forwards though, which puts Tobias Harris in play tonight. He grades out as one of the top plays at his position on FanDuel ($5,600). Andre Drummond has been too inconsistent to use in cash games this season, but makes an elite tournament play on a night where most people will be paying up for Hassan Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Reggie Jackson $6,500 $5,600 $9,900 0.97 22.9 0.0 22.2 0.0 34.4% 0.0% 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,700 $5,700 $8,300 0.76 33.1 0.2 25.2 8.0 20.9% 3.3% 11
Marcus Morris $5,000 $5,100 $8,100 0.74 32.1 1.9 23.8 4.8 20.4% -1.7% 13
Tobias Harris $5,600 $6,000 $9,300 0.79 33.1 1.0 26.1 1.5 21.8% -1.2% 26
Andre Drummond $7,800 $7,500 $12,600 1.19 29.7 3.1 35.3 3.1 22.7% -0.7% 17
Jon Leuer $4,600 $4,500 $7,100 0.81 26.9 -0.1 21.9 1.9 17.1% -1.9% 26

Elite Plays – Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Andre Drummond (Cash), Jon Leuer (Cash)

San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Minnesota Timberwolves
sanantonionba Vegas Total 204.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 100.0
Pace +/- -0.5 Pace +/- -3.6
Proj. Starter Nicolas Laprovittola Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 20 4 8 18 10 2016-17 11 17 3 3 4

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have won nine of their last ten games and now sit in second place in the Western Conference at 17-4. They have surprisingly struggled at home (5-4), but have a perfect record on the road (12-0). Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on a Wolves’ defense that is ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Spurs have an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the highest in the slate and 1.8 points above their season average. Even though this is the second half of a back-to-back for San Antonio, the low spread should allow the starters to see a full complement of minutes. Tony Parker is not expected to play in this one, after suffering a knee injury against the Bucks last night.

Nicolas Laprovittola will likely draw the start at point guard, but he is not a recommended play in DFS. In two starts this season, he is averaging 19 minutes and 10.5 fantasy points per game. Patty Mills should see a nice boost in fantasy production tonight, as he is averaging 24.4 fantasy points per game without Tony Parker in the lineup this season. Mills is far from a must play, but he is certainly the preferred target in the Spurs’ backcourt. Kawhi Leonard has not been limited in back-to-back sets this season and grades out as a top play at small forward tonight. He could see minutes in the mid to upper 30s, as he will be tasked with defending Andrew Wiggins. LaMarcus Aldridge never really grades out as an elite play, but he is averaging 35.1 minutes in his last three games and is worth a look as a secondary play at power forward. Pau Gasol carries some appeal on DraftKings, but he may have a tough time with Karl-Anthony Towns.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Nicolas Laprovittola $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.62 10.9 5.0 6.7 4.0 19.8% 0.7% 20
Danny Green $3,600 $3,700 $7,600 0.62 25.9 -2.3 16.1 -7.1 12.8% 2.2% 4
Kawhi Leonard $8,300 $7,800 $13,700 1.15 33.8 -1.8 38.8 -4.4 30.0% 1.7% 8
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,500 $6,300 $10,800 0.92 33.1 2.0 30.4 -2.4 23.7% -3.4% 18
Pau Gasol $6,100 $5,100 $10,300 1.01 26.1 4.2 26.4 6.8 21.1% 2.4% 10
Patty Mills $4,300 $4,200 $7,500 0.80 23.5 2.4 18.9 3.7 21.3% 0.7% 20

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol (DK)

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are still finding their way as a young team with a new coach. Perhaps they are tanking a bit to increase their chances of getting Lonzo Ball in the draft this summer. I’m a fan of Ricky Rubio, but you can imagine this team in a few years with Ball as their point guard? Anyway, let’s get back to the topic at hand. The Wolves draw an extremely difficult matchup tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and are undefeated on the road this season. Minnesota has an implied total of only 100 points, which is the fifth lowest in the slate and 4.8 points below their season average. The only positive that I can see here is that the Spurs are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games.

Ricky Rubio has played well in his last three games, averaging 34.8 minutes and 25.8 fantasy points per contest. With DraftKings’ dynamic pricing, he carries some appeal at only $4,700 going up against Nicolas Laprovittola. Point guard is always a stacked position, but I have Rubio inside my top five in point-per-dollar rankings on DraftKings. The one position that the Spurs are ranked below-average at is shooting guard and Zach LaVine has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently. I’ll probably have very little exposure to the Wolves tonight, but potentially a LaVine share or two in GPPs. Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng are easy fades against the likes of Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, who are both elite defenders. Karl-Anthony Towns is an intriguing GPP play on DraftKings at $8,100, but there are better plays for cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ricky Rubio $5,600 $4,700 $8,800 0.73 30.5 4.3 22.4 3.4 17.0% -0.9% 11
Zach LaVine $6,000 $5,700 $10,300 0.76 37.2 4.6 28.2 -1.8 22.5% -1.2% 17
Andrew Wiggins $5,900 $6,000 $10,700 0.84 36.5 1.1 30.8 3.3 28.2% -2.6% 3
Gorgui Dieng $5,500 $5,200 $10,100 0.84 31.1 -4.0 26.0 -10.2 16.1% -1.8% 3
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,300 $8,100 $13,600 1.17 34.8 0.6 40.7 12.5 27.3% 7.2% 4

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio (DK), Zach LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Memphis Grizzlies
philadelphianba Vegas Total 194.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 194.5
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 93.3 Team Total 101.3
Pace +/- -3.8 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Nik Stauskas Ersan Ilyasova Richaun Holmes Proj. Starter Andrew Harrison Tony Allen Troy Williams JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 4 19 1 5 1 2016-17 23 20 30 12 16

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers may not have the worst record in the NBA, but they are going to have a difficult time tonight against the Grizzlies. In addition to playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they will be without four of their best players in Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, Robert Covington, and Jerryd Bayless. To make matters worse, they are facing a Grizzlies’ defense that is ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The crazy part is that the Grizzlies are also so decimated by injuries that they are only favored by eight points in this game. If the Sixers can keep this one close, there should be a number of players that reach and exceed value, even though they have the lowest implied total in the slate at 93.3 points.

With Jerryd Bayless out, Sergio Rodriguez will draw another start at point guard. He is coming off of his best fantasy outing in his career. scoring 35 fantasy points against he Nuggets last night. A matchup against the Grizzlies looks tough on paper, but his usage should go up with all of the injuries to the Sixers’ key players. Not only that, but he gets to face Andrew Harrison instead of Mike Conley. Rodriguez is an elite value play in all formats. Gerald Henderson and Nik Stauskas could both see minutes in the low 30s tonight, but are more GPP darts than viable cash game options. With Embiid and Okafor both out, we can expect big minutes for the trio of Ersan Ilyasova, Richaun Holmes, and Dario Saric. This is not a favorable matchup by any means, but they are all cheap enough that they deserve consideration as power forward punts.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Sergio Rodriguez $4,600 $5,000 $7,800 0.81 27.4 2.4 22.3 7.9 23.5% 2.3% 4
Gerald Henderson $3,700 $3,500 $8,500 0.69 24.9 1.7 17.2 2.0 18.0% -1.6% 19
Nik Stauskas $3,700 $3,900 $6,000 0.58 26.2 5.0 15.3 -3.1 16.7% -0.1% 1
Ersan Ilyasova $4,600 $4,600 $7,600 0.81 25.5 2.4 20.7 3.5 20.0% 2.5% 5
Richaun Holmes $3,500 $3,600 $6,400 0.99 15.5 -3.2 15.4 -4.7 18.2% 2.9% 1
Dario Saric $4,100 $4,900 $8,100 0.76 24.8 -2.1 19.0 2.6 21.4% 3.2% 5

Elite Plays – Sergio Rodriguez, Richaun Holmes

Secondary Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, Dario Saric, Nik Stauskas (GPP), Gerald Henderson

Memphis Grizzlies

While these two teams may not have the most talented rosters in the NBA, the number of no-name players that are playing big minutes for both clubs is astounding. The Grizzlies have somehow managed to overcome their injuries, winning each of their last three games and seven of their last ten overall. They draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 101.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 3.3 points above their season average. The only concern here is that the Grizzlies played in a double-overtime game against the Pelicans last night. Five players (Jamychal Green, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol, Andrew Harrison, and Troy Daniels) played at least 40 minutes.

It’s always hard to predict what coaches are going to do in these situations, but the Grizzlies are so depleted that David Fizdale may not have a choice but to play his starters a full complement of minutes tonight. Andrew Harrison has averaged 24.8 fantasy points per game in his last four starts and draws a premier matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Sergio Rodriguez, but both are in play tonight. Tony Allen stands out as an elite value, but I am a little worried about his minutes in this one. Troy Williams only played 19 minutes last night, which makes me think Fizdale will lean heavily on him tonight. Troy Daniels has been playing huge minutes recently and is a viable punt play off the bench. Jamychal Green is an easy fade now that Zach Randolph is back with the team. Marc Gasol has seen a boost in minutes, usage, and fantasy production since Mike Conley went down with his injury. Again, I’m a little concerned about his minutes in this spot, but the matchup couldn’t get any better. The Sixers don’t have anyone that can match up against him.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Andrew Harrison $4,300 $5,300 $7,700 0.64 27.3 6.2 17.6 4.6 19.0% 4.6% 23
Tony Allen $4,400 $3,900 $7,100 0.76 25.4 5.4 19.4 9.9 18.2% 0.3% 20
Troy Williams $4,200 $4,400 $7,000 0.63 16.9 13.1 10.6 7.5 18.4% 0.1% 30
JaMychal Green $5,200 $5,700 $7,200 0.70 30.0 4.9 21.1 8.8 14.1% -1.0% 12
Marc Gasol $7,500 $7,400 $11,100 1.04 33.8 3.7 35.2 13.4 27.5% 2.1% 16
Troy Daniels $4,200 $4,700 $6,900 0.70 19.6 15.9 13.8 18.3 21.9% 2.5% 20
Zach Randolph $5,400 $5,000 $8,900 1.13 22.3 25.2 29.7% 12

Elite Plays – Marc Gasol, Andrew Harrison (FD), Troy Williams, Troy Daniels (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tony Allen, Troy Daniels (DK), Zach Randolph

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious