NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-02-28 04:01:47

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		217.0					Vegas Total		217.0
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		103.5					Implied Team Total		113.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.8					Pace Projection +/-		0.7
Projected Starters	Kris Dunn	Zach LaVine	David Nwaba	Lauri Markkanen	Cristiano Felicio		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	10	25	14	14		DvP	24	27	17	25	20
DRPM Rat.	13	15	11	14	7		DRPM Rat.	10	24	8	26	30

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Nets in Brooklyn last night. They have a tougher matchup tonight, as they square off against the Hornets in their second road game in as many nights. Charlotte isn’t the best matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency and fourth in rebounding differential. The Bulls come into the game as ten-point underdogs and have the fourth lowest implied total on the board at 103.5 points.

Kris Dunn is coming off of his best game since returning from injury, but it was largely thanks to a nice matchup and to an increased usage rate with Zach LaVine out of the lineup. Dunn is still viable in all formats, but I don’t consider him to be an core play. The Hornets are middle-of-the-pack at defending point guards this season. LaVine will slide right back into the starting lineup and look to pick up where he left off, averaging 32 fantasy points in his previous five games. The issue with LaVine is his price point. I don’t love paying a premium for him on the road in a difficult matchup.

The two Bulls’ small forwards are firmly in play tonight, as David Nwaba and Denzel Valentine should both see a heavy dose of minutes against a Hornets’ team that is ranked 24th in efficiency and 25th in DvP against the position. Nwaba has been playing 33-35 minutes and Valentine has been playing 28-30 minutes. I’m expecting a similar allotment tonight with Justin Holiday ruled out. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Valentine over Nwaba, but he’ll likely come at higher ownership.

Lauri Markkanen hasn’t been great in his last five games, but should log minutes in the low-30s with Robin Lopez out. Markkanen is viable in cash games, while Bobby Portis is the better tournament play. The Bulls will likely need as many minutes as they can get from Cristiano Felicio. While a matchup against Dwight Howard is far from ideal, I like his chances to reach value at a price point under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

Paul Zipser (Out)
Justin Holiday (Out)
Robin Lopez (Out)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (9 of 12)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kris Dunn, Denzel Valentine, David Nwaba

Secondary Plays – Lauri Markkanen (Cash), Bobby Portis (GPP), Cristiano Felicio

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have played well at home this season, boasting a 17-15 record. They are currently outside of the top eight in the Eastern Conference standings, so they’ll have some work to do if they want to make the playoffs. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Charlotte has an implied total of 113.5 points, which is the third highest overall and seven points above their season average.

There have been a few times over the last couple of weeks that I’ve wanted to play Kemba Walker, but backed out because of his price tag. His form has been solid (40 fantasy points per game over his last five), but that’s not enough to reach value at his current price point. For that reason, Walker is more of a deep tournament play than a core target. Nicolas Batum has played well over his last five games, but he is also priced at a premium. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb have been far too inconsistent to trust in cash games, even though their price points are appealing.

The most intriguing plays from Charlotte are all from the frontcourt. The Bulls are ranked 27th in efficiency and 25th in DvP against power forwards this season, making Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky interesting value plays. Kaminsky has the edge over Williams when it comes to per-minute fantasy production, but Williams has the higher minute projection. I’m leaning Williams over Kaminsky, but see both as viable punts on FanDuel. Dwight Howard has averaged an elite 1.20 fantasy points per minute this season and gets to square off against a Bulls’ team that will only have one true active center tonight. That center (Cristiano Felicio) has the second worst DRPM (-0.88) if any player at his position this season.

Notable Injuries

None

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.5 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 7.0 (2 of 12)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Marvin Williams

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		221.0					Vegas Total		221.0
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		105.5					Implied Team Total		115.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		1.5
Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	D’Angelo Russell	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Jarrett Allen		Projected Starters	George Hill	J.R. Smith	Cedi Osman	LeBron James	Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	25	29	17	19		DvP	23	14	11	29	30
DRPM Rat.	27	27	17	21	29		DRPM Rat.	7	28	21	7	26

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after picking up a win against the Bulls last night. While a ten-point spread does bring a blowout into play, I tend to overlook the blowout potential when there is tremendous upside. That’s certainly the case here, as the Cavaliers are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Even though the Nets are playing on the road and in their second game in as many nights, their implied total (105.5 points) is still higher than their season average.

Spencer Dinwiddie continues to play well for the Nets and hasn’t been impacted by the return of D’Angelo Russell. Over his last five games, Dinwiddie is averaging 34 fantasy points. He’s certainly viable against a Cavaliers’ defense that can’t defend any position well. Russell didn’t fare all that well last night, yet his price came up quite a bit. This combination should lead to low ownership, even though he has 40+ fantasy point upside in this matchup. Russell is one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate.

Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll have both played well recently, but I expect their playing time to decrease a bit now that Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are back in the lineup. The same can be said for Joe Harris. Of the five, I have the most interest in Crabbe, followed by Carroll and LeVert. If LeVert plays over 20 minutes again, I like his chances to exceed value at a price point of only $4,000 on FanDuel. The Nets’ frontcourt continues to be an easy fade, especially in a game where both teams will employ a lot of small-ball lineups.

Notable Injuries

Jahlil Okafor (Out)

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (8 of 12)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP), D’Angelo Russell (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (Cash), D’Angelo Russell (Cash), Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Caris LeVert (FD)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have won six of their last ten games, but trail the Celtics and Raptors by quite a bit in the Eastern Conference standings. Their sights will likely be set on capturing the third seed and developing chemistry over the last two months of the season. They have an excellent matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 115.5 points, which is the second highest of the slate and nearly six points above their season average.

George Hill hasn’t been particularly efficient in his time in Cleveland, but the minutes have been there. If we set his projection at 28-30 minutes, he becomes an intriguing play against the nets, who are ranked 23rd in efficiency against point guards. I won’t go as far as saying Hill should be considered in cash games, but a $4,600 price tag on FanDuel is enticing. LeBron James has taken on more of a facilitator role since the All-Star break, which is good for his triple-double upside. I have no qualms with using James as the top play overall, but I slightly prefer Giannis Antetokounmpo given the fact that a blowout is less likely in the Bucks’ game.

I have been avoiding the Cavaliers’ bench since they picked up Larry Nance, Rodney Hood, and Jordan Clarkson. Of the three, Nance has the most upside, but he has the same problem that he had in Los Angeles — he’s not playing enough minutes. He could see a few extra minutes in a blowout, but I hate relying on that when it comes to DFS. For now, I will treat Nance as a large-field GPP option and avoid him in cash games. Tristan Thompson minutes have taken a hit recently. While he certainly has double-double potential against the Nets, I’d rather take a shot on Cristiano Felicio at a cheaper price point.

Notable Injuries

None

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 115.5 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 (4 of 12)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.7 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James

Secondary Plays – George Hill (FD), Larry Nance (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		206.0					Vegas Total		206.0
			Vegas Spread		0.0					Vegas Spread		0.0
			Implied Team Total		103.0					Implied Team Total		103.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.3					Pace Projection +/-		2.0
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	Justise Winslow	Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	13	3	6	6		DvP	11	20	18	16	13
DRPM Rat.	21	16	6	2	1		DRPM Rat.	1	24	1	23	2

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers not only look like a good bet to make the playoffs, but they could actually challenge for home-court advantage in the first round. The Hawks waived Ersan Ilyasova and the Sixers gladly took him off of their hands to add depth to their frontcourt. Tonight’s matchup against the Heat is a difficult one, as Miami is ranked fourth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. While the spread of the game is set as a pick ‘em, Philadelphia has an implied total of only 103 points, which gives them the worst projected point differential (-4.6) of the slate.

Ben Simmons has been in great form over his last five games, averaging 48 fantasy points per contest. While he offers a unique matchup problem for opposing point guards, the Heat are ranked second in efficiency and fourth in DvP against the position. Simmons seems a bit overpriced given the matchup and low implied total for the Sixers. T.J. McConnell is the better point-per-dollar buy on FanDuel ($3,600), but is best suited in tournaments given his volatility. J.J. Redick has scored at least 23 fantasy points in six of his last eight games and should have low ownership if you want to look his way in tournaments.

Robert Covington has been in a month-long slump and should be avoided until he snaps out of it. Dario Saric has a tough matchup and isn’t priced at any sort of discount. The one Sixers’ player that you can fire up in all formats is Joel Embiid. He has averaged 49 fantasy points over his last five games and the 76ers aren’t afraid to play him 33-35 minutes in close games. Given the differences in price, I slightly prefer Nikola Jokic ($10,200) on FanDuel and Embiid on DraftKings ($9,400).

Notable Injuries

Ersan Ilyasova (Out)
Trevor Booker (Questionable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.6 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.6 (12 of 12)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (DK)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (FD), J.J. Redick (GPP), T.J. McConnell (FD)

Miami Heat

The Heat have lost eight of their last ten games and are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. At one point, it looked like they were going to challenge for home-court in the first round. They have a difficult matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential this season. While the Heat’s implied total is two points higher than their season average, it is still the third lowest on the board.

Goran Dragic is viable tonight solely thanks to a cheap price point on FanDuel ($6,100). The Sixers are ranked first in efficiency against point guards, but Dragic should be priced closer to $7,000 given his recent form. We always have to remember that price trumps all when evaluating players in DFS. Tyler Johnson has a nice price point on FanDuel ($4,700) as well and he comes into the game in good form, averaging 27 fantasy points over his last five outings. Josh Richardson is cheap on DraftKings ($5,200), but his minutes have taken a hit since the team traded for Dwyane Wade. Wayne Ellington is my favorite of the three, as he should see 28-30 minutes off the bench at a considerable discount.

James Johnson minutes are trending in the wrong direction and it might be even worse now that Kelly Olynyk is back in the mix. There are too many bodies splitting minutes right now to really feel great about any of them, especially in this difficult matchup. Hassan Whiteside is one of the most intriguing plays of the slate. His minutes and fantasy production are both trending upward over his last five games, but as we have seen time and time again — he loves to put up duds when he’s highly owned in DFS. Whiteside struggled in his last meeting with Joel Embiid, but something tells me he plays well tonight. Does that mean I like Whiteside in cash games? Absolutely not.

Notable Injuries

Kelly Olynyk (Probable)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 101.1 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (7 of 12)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (FD), Tyler Johnson (FD), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Hassan Whiteside (Cash), Wayne Ellington (FD)

Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		104.3					Implied Team Total		107.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.6					Pace Projection +/-		-0.1
Projected Starters	Tomas Satoransky	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	7	1	9	26		DvP	14	6	24	2	9
DRPM Rat.	6	25	24	2	3		DRPM Rat.	9	11	1	19	7

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have played well without John Wall. They have won seven of their last ten games and have a chance to catch the Cavaliers for the third best record in the Eastern Conference. They have a tough test in front of them tonight, as they take on a Bucks’ team that has been a top ten defense over the last month of play. The Wizards come into the game with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the fifth lowest of the slate and three points below their season average.

I have decided to nickname Tomas Satoransky the “Printing Press.” Every time we roster him in DFS, it’s like printing money. Over his last five games, he has averaged 34 minutes and 34 fantasy points per contest and he is still only $5,800 on DraftKings. I don’t love his matchup against Eric Bledsoe, but the Printing Press fills up all areas of the stat sheet. He doesn’t need to score a ton of points to reach and exceed value at this price point. Bradley Beal has a good matchup when you look at the DRPM grades of Tony Snell and Khris Middleton, but the Bucks as a whole have been tough on shooting guards. Beal is viable thanks to a lack of options at shooting guard on FanDuel, but not a player that I am forcing into my lineups.

Otto Porter has really stepped up his play with Wall out, averaging 35 fantasy points over his last five games. He will likely be tasked with defending Giannis Antetokounmpo. While there is some concern about foul trouble, Porter has played at least 39 minutes in two of his last three games against the Bucks. There is certainly upside with Porter in tournaments. Markieff Morris isn’t a player that I love to target, but he is worth a look on DraftKings at $4,900. Although, given the difference in recent playing time, I’d rather target Kelly Oubre off the bench. Marcin Gortat has the best matchup of the five starters, but his minutes are so inconsistent that we can’t trust him in anything other than a tournament.

Notable Injuries

None

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.4 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (11 of 12)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tomas Satoransky (DK), Bradley Beal (FD), Otto Porter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tomas Satoransky (FD), Bradley Beal (DK), Otto Porter (Cash), Kelly Oubre (GPP), Markieff Morris (DK), Marcin Gortat (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have won six of their last ten games and are hoping to make some noise in the last two months of the regular season. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The fact that this game is being played in Milwaukee helps, as the Bucks have an implied total of 107.3 points.

Eric Bledsoe has been one of my favorite targets over the last couple of weeks and we’ve been able to target him at low ownership. While his price point has come up, he’s on my short list of potential tournament targets on DraftKings ($7,300). With Malcolm Brogdon out, Bledsoe will continue to see minutes in the mid to upper-30s. Khris Middleton has a decent matchup against the Wizards, as he’ll likely draw the defense of Bradley Beal or Markieff Morris. I like Middleton’s chances in both of those matchups.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is my favorite small forward to pay up for tonight, slightly edging out LeBron James. We don’t have to worry about a blowout here and Giannis has scored at least 63 fantasy points in three of his last five games against the Wizards. John Henson has played 34 and 27 minutes since returning from injury. He makes an intriguing play on DraftKings at a price of $4,700. Last but not least, we have Jabari Parker, who played a season-high 24 minutes against the Pelicans. This might be the last time to target him at this price point.

Notable Injuries

Matthew Dellavedova (Out)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (6 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (6 of 12)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton (DK), Jabari Parker (FD)

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (FD), Jabari Parker (DK), Eric Bledsoe (DK), John Henson (DK)

Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings							Portland Trail Blazers
			Vegas Total		209.5					Vegas Total		209.5
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		98.8					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.7					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	De’Aaron Fox	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Justin Jackson	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein		Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Maurice Harkless	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	12	16	15	3		DvP	18	15	21	21	28
DRPM Rat.	18	26	18	6	2		DRPM Rat.	29	23	21	27	17

Sacramento Kings

Last night was a perfect example of why I hate seeing the Kings on the schedule. They didn’t say a single word about Zach Randolph all day and then decided to give him the night off right before tip-off. It’s fine if you want to rest your veterans, but at least give everyone a heads up. It’s frustrating and the worst part is that it will likely continue. To make matters worse, the Kings draw an awful matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

It’s no surprise that the Kings have the lowest implied total on the board and it looks like a good night to fade the team as a whole. The fact that they are the largest underdogs (12 points) of the slate doesn’t help their cause. Zach Randolph is expected to return to the lineup, but his minutes are far from secure. Meanwhile, the Kings could look to limit the minutes of their young players (De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Willie Cauley-Stein) if the game gets out of hand. Buddy Hield could be a one-in-ten-lineup type of tournament target tonight, but that’s really all the interest that I have in the Kings.

Notable Injuries

Garrett Temple (Questionable)
Kosta Koufos (Questionable)
Zach Randolph (Probable)

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 99.0 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (10 of 12)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield (GPP)

Portland Trail Blazers

While the Blazers have a nice matchup and a high implied total, this game has all the makings of a blowout. We have a young Kings’ team that has not played well on the road this season and they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Blazers are currently listed as 12-point favorites and that honestly feels a little low. There is upside if the game stays close, but this one seems like the riskiest of the potential blowout games in this slate.

Damian Lillard ha averaged 53 fantasy points over his last five games and has an elite true usage rate of 29%. He also has an exploitable matchup against De’Aaron Fox, who is one of the worst defenders in basketball. Lillard has upside, but given his price point and the potential for the game to be over by halftime, I will only be using him in tournaments. C.J. McCollum price has gone up over the last couple of weeks, even though he has only averaged 31 fantasy points during that stretch. I’d much rather take a shot on Maurice Harkless, who is still cheap and who has averaged 21 fantasy points over his last five games.

The Kings can be beat down low if you want to look at the Blazers’ frontcourt in tournaments. Al-Farouq Aminu is reasonably priced around the industry, Ed Davis offers nice upside at a price point of $3,800 on FanDuel, and Jusuf Nurkic has shown that he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to post a monster fantasy outing. All three are best suited in tournaments, although you can make the case for Davis in cash games, as he will likely play 18-20 minutes regardless of the game’s outcome.

Notable Injuries

None

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (3 of 12)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.2 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard (GPP), Maurice Harkless (GPP), Ed Davis (FD)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (Cash), Maurice Harkless (Cash), C.J. McCollum (GPP), Jusuf Nurkic (GPP), Al-Farouq Aminu (GPP)

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