NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 26th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Philadelphia -3, 204 Over/Under
- Phoenix Suns Proj. Starters – Goodwin-Booker-Tucker-Len-Chandler
- Philadelphia 76ers Proj. Starters – Smith-Covington-Sampson-Noel-Okafor
| Phoenix Suns | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 204.0 | | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.70 | Team Pace | 99.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Archie Goodwin | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Alex Len | Tyson Chandler | Proj. Starter | Ishmael Smith | Robert Covington | Jakarr Sampson | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 19 | 30 | 28 | 28 | Opp. Season | 29 | 28 | 28 | 15 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 16 | 25 | 23 | 18 | 21 | Last 3 Weeks | 27 | 30 | 30 | 11 | 24 | |
Phoenix Suns
Record: 14-31 — Road: 4-18 — Last 10: 2-8
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.5 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0
The Suns have lost eight of their last ten games and will be short-handed tonight against the Sixers in Philadelphia. While they are underdogs in this matchup, this could be a fantasy goldmine. You know you play fantasy basketball when one of the games that you are most looking forward to is the Suns and Sixers. Both teams like to push the pace and both are ranked near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories.
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.8 (28 of 30)
The Sixers are one of the top teams to target players against in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories above. They are also ranked below the league average in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Brandon Knight and Ronnie Price have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. Jon Leuer is also expected to miss the game, but Phoenix is hoping to have Markieff Morris back in the mix.
- Injury Watch:
Brandon Knight (Out)
Ronnie Price (Out)
Jon Leuer (Doubtful)
Markieff Morris (Probable)
Elite Plays
Devin Booker
Booker’s price is probably where it should be on DraftKings, but he is still underpriced on FanDuel. He is close to a must play (on FD) tonight against the Sixers, especially with Brandon Knight out. He should see 35+ minutes tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
FD — $4,500 — SG
DK — $5,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.8 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 13.2 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Archie Goodwin
With Brandon Knight out, Goodwin will draw another start at point guard tonight. In three starts this season, he has averaged 18 points, three rebounds, two assists, and three blocks/steals per game. He is arguably the top value play on the board tonight and should able to reach value even if he struggles from the floor.
FD — $4,100 — PG
DK — $4,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 25.3
FP/Game — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 17.5
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler
Chandler went bonkers the other night against the Hawks, scoring 13 points and grabbing 27 rebounds. He should see another heavy workload tonight, although Markieff Morris may cut into his minutes. With all of the great options at center, Chandler is more of a secondary play.
FD — $4,800 — C
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.3 | Last Five Games: 10.4
Min/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 30.6
Alex Len
Len has taken advantage of all of the injuries to the Suns’ frontcourt, averaging 29.5 fantasy points over his last five games. While Markieff Morris may take a few minutes away from him tonight, he should still see 25+ minutes against a Sixers’ defense that can’t rebound or defend the paint.
FD — $4,700 — C
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.8 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 29.5
P.J. Tucker
Tucker is a viable mid-range small forward tonight. With all of the injuries to the Suns, he should see minutes in the mid to high-30s tonight against the Sixers, who have allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than any other team in the NBA.
FD — $4,500 — SF
DK — $5,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.7 | Last Five Games: 12.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 6-39 — Home: 3-17 — Last 10: 3-7
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 94.3 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.5 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 9.2
The Sixers have played well recently, winning three of their last ten games. That may not seem like much, but they were 3-29 before that stretch of games. It’s a rare sight tonight, as the Sixers are actually listed as favorites. They are projected to score 103.5 points tonight against the Suns. Their team total is 9.2 points higher than their average points per game.
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.9 (25 of 30)
The Suns have been worse than the Sixers defensively over the last three weeks (and that’s saying something). They have dropped in the defensive rankings and are now 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Give a sizable boost to the Sixers’ offense as a whole, as they aren’t projected to score over 100 points very often.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
Ishmael Smith
Smith’s price has basically caught up to his recent level of production, but that doesn’t mean that he still isn’t a strong play. Despite a poor showing against the Celtics, he is still averaging 33 fantasy points over his last five games. He draws a tremendous matchup tonight against the Suns, who can’t seem to defend opposing backcourts.
FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $7,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 25.6 | Last Five Games: 33.0
Robert Covington
Covington is seeing major minutes again and he has made the most of them, averaging 28.7 fantasy points in his last five games. His price has come up, but he is still one of the top targets at small forward. The Suns are ranked 28th against both shooting guards and small forwards this season.
FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $6,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Min/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 28.7
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel
I prefer Jahlil Okafor over Noel in a total fantasy point projection, but when you look at the slate as a whole, Okafor isn’t even a top five play at center tonight. Noel deserves a look in tournaments against a Suns’ team that is turnover-prone.
FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.8 | Last Five Games: 11.2
Min/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 28.2
Los Angeles Clippers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -1, 208.5 Over/Under
- Los Angeles Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Pierce-Mbah a Moute-Jordan
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Allen-Hill
| Los Angeles Clippers | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.5 | | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.40 | Team Pace | 99.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Paul Pierce | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Lavoy Allen | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 24 | 3 | 16 | 21 | Opp. Season | 6 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 26 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 23 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 25 | Last 3 Weeks | 7 | 17 | 18 | 5 | 29 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 28-16 — Road: 13-9 — Last 10: 7-3
- Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.7 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.8 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0
Oh my, oh my, oh my!
Blake Griffin broke his hand punching a member of the team’s equipment staff during an altercation that started in a Toronto restaurant. You can’t make this stuff up. Despite the off-court issues, the Clippers have won seven of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in what should be a fast-paced game. The Clippers are projected to score 104.8 points, which is identical to their average points per game this season.
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.5 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.0 (10 of 30)
The Pacers have been stout defensively this season, but their quick pace of play helps the Clippers’ matchup. The Pacers are ranked tenth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. With Blake Griffin injuring his hand, he will remain out for the foreseeable future.
- Injury Watch:
Blake Griffin (Out)
Elite Plays
Chris Paul
Now that Blake Griffin is out for the foreseeable future, the Clippers will continue to heavily lean on their star point guard. He has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 46.1 fantasy points during that stretch. The most impressive part is that he has done it in fairly limited minutes. He should see minutes in the upper-30s tonight against the Pacers.
FD — $10,100 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 25.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 39.4 | Last Five Games: 46.1
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan
Jordan hasn’t exactly dominated with Blake Griffin out of the lineup, but his career numbers are markedly better when Griffin is out. Jordan would typically be an elite play in this spot, but once again, the center position is littered with viable options tonight. I’m expecting a nice outing from Jordan, but he’s not the best play in a points per dollar sense.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.8 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 31.9
Jamal Crawford
Crawford has seen a small boost in both minutes and usage rate while Blake Griffin has been out. He makes a nice tournament play tonight against the Pacers, who have struggled to contain opposing shooting guards this season.
FD — $4,000 — SG
DK — $4,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 27.1
FP/Game — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Indiana Pacers
Record: 23-21 — Home: 13-6 — Last 10: 4-6
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.6 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.8 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2
The Pacers have not been playing their best basketball recently, losing six of their last ten games. They have been terrific at home though, posting a 13-6 record. Tonight they are listed as 1-point underdogs against the Clippers. The Pacers are projected to score 103.8 points, which is slightly higher than their average points per game this season.
- Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.6 (11 of 30)
The Clippers have been slightly above-average defensively this season, ranking between 11th and 15th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The biggest DFS question surrounding this game is the status of Ian Mahinmi. If he is unable to suit up, fire up the Myles Turner bandwagon. Rodney Stuckey remains out for the Pacers.
- Injury Watch:
Ian Mahinmi (Questionable)
Rodney Stuckey (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Paul George
It sounds like George has been dealing with some swelling in his left leg. While it hasn’t had a huge impact on his fantasy production, his minutes are down a bit over his last five games. I like the matchup against the Clippers at home, but if you are paying up for a small forward, you might as well spend a bit more and take Kevin Durant.
FD — $8,600 — SF
DK — $8,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 38.9 | Last Five Games: 35.1
Myles Turner
This pick hinges on the availability of Ian Mahinmi. Turner has really stepped up in his absence, averaging 31.6 fantasy points over his last five games. If Mahinmi is out, Turner could see upwards of 30 minutes again tonight. However, if Mahinmi plays, we probably can’t project Mahinmi for more than 22-24 minutes.
FD — $4,900 — PF
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 20.5
Min/Game — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 16.5 | Last Five Games: 31.6
Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -4, 189 Over/Under
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Udrih-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Stoudemire
- Brooklyn Nets Proj. Starters – Sloan-Ellington-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Miami Heat | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 189.0 | | Vegas Total | 189.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 92.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.20 | Team Pace | 96.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Beno Udrih | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Amar’e Stoudemire | Proj. Starter | Donald Sloan | Wayne Ellington | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 24 | Opp. Season | 3 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 8 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 30 | 9 | 20 | 28 | 11 | Last 3 Weeks | 17 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 10 | |
Miami Heat
Record: 24-21 — Road: 9-12 — Last 10: 3-7
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 95.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.5 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2
The Heat have lost seven of their last ten games and are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Bulls last night in Chicago. Tonight’s game against the Nets feels a bit like a trap game, which helps explain why the Heat are only listed as 4-point favorites. This game lacks fantasy appeal, especially considering how many high totals are on the board tonight.
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.6 (24 of 30)
The Nets have struggled defensively all season. They ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat have a number of injuries once again. Hassan Whiteside and Josh McRoberts are both questionable, after missing last night’s game. Goran Dragic is doubtful, he is targeting Friday for his return.
- Injury Watch:
Chris Andersen (Out)
Goran Dragic (Doubtful)
Hassan Whiteside (Questionable)
Josh McRoberts (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade
From a fantasy perspective, there isn’t a ton to like on the Heat tonight. They play at a slow pace and have a low team total. Wade is really the only player on my radar here. He had a nice game against the Bulls last night and draws a favorable matchup against a Nets’ defense that is ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.
FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $6,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 12-33 — Home: 8-17 — Last 10: 2-8
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 95.5 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 92.5 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0
The Nets continue to struggle on both ends of the floor. They have lost eight of their last ten games, but are only listed as 4-point underdogs tonight against the short-handed Heat. The problem is that the Heat are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. The Nets are only projected to score 92.5 points, which is easily the lowest team total on the board tonight.
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.7 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.6 (4 of 30)
The Heat have been a top five defensive team this season, but they aren’t nearly as good without Hassan Whiteside in the lineup. If Whiteside it out, we can give a sizable boost to Brook Lopez. In Whiteside’s absence last night, Pau Gasol put up 44 fantasy points against the Heat. Lopez is a better target for tournaments though, as there are a number of viable options at center tonight. The rest of the Nets can be avoided in all league formats.
- Injury Watch:
Andrea Bargnani (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -6.5, 209.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Singler-Durant-Ibaka-Collison
- New York Knicks Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Oklahoma City Thunder | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 209.5 | | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.90 | Team Pace | 96.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Kyle Singler | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Nick Collison | Proj. Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 18 | Opp. Season | 22 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 14 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 22 | Last 3 Weeks | 9 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 6 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 33-13 — Road: 12-8 — Last 10: 8-2
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 108.5 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.0 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5
The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are now 33-13 on the season. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. The Thunder are projected to score 108 points, which is the second highest team total on the board. The only concern here is a potential blowout if Carmelo Anthony is unable to suit up.
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.6 (9 of 30)
The Knicks have been decent defensively this season, ranking above the league average in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Steven Adams is questionable tonight. If he is forced to miss another game, Enes Kanter would make an excellent tournament play. Andre Roberson is also out, which could mean a few more minutes for Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow.
- Injury Watch:
Steven Adams (Questionable)
Andre Roberson (Out)
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
Westbrook has been in good form recently, averaging 48.5 fantasy points over his last five games. He is the top overall play at point guard tonight, although I don’t mind taking the savings with either Chris Paul or Damian Lillard. The upside is certainly there, but Westbrook may be a slightly better play in tournaments than he is in cash games.
FD — $10,600 — PG
DK — $10,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 28.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 48.5 | Last Five Games: 48.5
Kevin Durant
Small forward has some decent options tonight, but if you are looking to pay up at the position, Durant clearly stands out as the top play. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 46.8 fantasy points in 35.3 minutes per contest. He is also considerably cheaper than his teammate, Russell Westbrook.
FD — $10,200 — SF
DK — $9,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 29.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 44.1 | Last Five Games: 46.8
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter
If Steven Adams is out, Kanter would become one of my favorite tournament plays and a decent cash game option as well. Kanter would be a good bet to top 25 minutes and we all know how productive he can be. On the season, he is averaging over a fantasy point per minute.
FD — $4,700 — C
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 19.4
Min/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 23.9
FP/Game — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 22.3
New York Knicks
Record: 22-24 — Home: 13-9 — Last 10: 5-5
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.1 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.5 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.4
The Knicks have won five of their last ten games and currently sit a game and a half behind the Pacers for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder, but at least the game will be played at a quick pace. The Knicks’ team total of 101.5 points is actually 2.4 points higher than their season average.
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.5 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 191.8 (7 of 30)
The Thunder are better than advertised defensively. On the season, they are ranked 11th or better in all four of the defenisve categories listed above. The big question here is whether or not Carmelo Anthony will be able to play. He left the Knicks last game early with a knee injury and is listed as questionable tonight. Lance Thomas is expected to return from his knee injury.
- Injury Watch:
Carmelo Anthony (Questionable)
Lance Thomas (Probable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kristaps Porzingis
If Carmelo Anthony plays tonight, I will likely fade the Knicks altogether. However, if he is unable to suit up, Porzingis and Derrick Williams would both become solid options. In four games without Anthony this season, Porzingis has averaged 18 points, 10 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 3.1 blocks/steals.
FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $7,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 28.9
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -8, 205 Over/Under
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Oubre-Hilario-Gortat
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Scola-Valanciunas
| Washington Wizards | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 205.0 | | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.70 | Team Pace | 95.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Kelly Oubre | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 15 | Opp. Season | 9 | 25 | 29 | 7 | 12 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 12 | 26 | 3 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
Record: 20-22 — Road: 10-8 — Last 10: 5-5
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.5 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4
The Wizards are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after getting torched by the Celtics last night. It doesn’t get any easier tonight, as they have to take on the Raptors in Toronto. The Wizards are sizable underdogs with a low team total of 98.5 points. Their total is 3.4 points lower than their average points per game this season.
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.1 (5 of 30)
The Raptors have an underrated defense. On the season, they are ranked tenth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. To make matters worse, the Wizards will be without Bradley Beal tonight. He broke his nose last night against the Celtics. Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, and Garrett Temple will all see a boost in minutes, but none of them stand out as great fantasy options. I will also be avoiding John Wall here. Chris Paul and Damian Lillard are better options if you are paying up at point guard.
- Injury Watch:
Brad Beal (Out)
Kris Humphries (Out)
Alan Anderson (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat
With all of the options at center, Gortat is more of a secondary play tonight. He comes into the game in great form though, averaging 33.6 fantasy points over his last five games. If the Wizards can keep this game within striking distance, Gortat should see minutes in the mid-30s.
FD — $7,200 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 13.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 33.6
Toronto Raptors
Record: 29-15 — Home: 15-6 — Last 10: 8-2
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.2 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.5 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3
The Raptors have won eight games in a row and are now 29-15 on the season. They are playing great basketball on both ends of the floor. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards at home. The Raptors are projected to score 106.5 points, which is the third highest team total on the board tonight.
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.7 (19 of 30)
The Wizards have been a top team to target players against this season. They are ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jonas Valanciunas, Patrick Patterson, and Cory Joseph have all been viable fantasy options recently, but there are better plays at each of their respective positions. If you are targeting any Raptors’ players tonight, look to their starting backcourt.
- Injury Watch:
DeMarre Carroll (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry
Lowry doesn’t have the best individual matchup tonight, but he is still worth a look, especially in tournaments. Over his last five games, he is averaging 37.6 fantasy points in 39.5 minutes per contest. He offers a high floor and a high ceiling and his price is still reasonable across the industry.
FD — $8,800 — PG
DK — $8,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 39.5
FP/Game — Season: 38.7 | Last Five Games: 37.6
DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan draws the better matchup between he and Kyle Lowry. On the season, the Wizards have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards. In three starts against the Wizards this season, DeRozan has averaged 29.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2.0 blocks/steals.
FD — $8,400 — SG
DK — $8,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 30.0
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 39.8
