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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-15 05:27:26

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers
detroitnba Vegas Total 215.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 111.3
Pace +/- 0.0 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Richard Jefferson Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 29 18 7 20 Adj. DvP 21 2 6 20 5
DRPM -1.53 -0.49 1.17 -0.61 1.30 DRPM -2.90 -0.02 0.87 -0.97 1.29

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are battling with the Bucks, Heat, and Bulls for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Detroit has played well recently, winning two games in a row (one against the Cavaliers) and seven of their last ten. I’ve been picking on the Cavaliers’ defense for over a month now and there is no reason to stop tonight. The Cavaliers are ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even though the game is on the road, the Pistons have an implied total of 103.8 points, which is 1.5 points above their season average.

It only took five months, but Reggie Jackson is finally starting to heat up. He has played at least 30 minutes and has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He draws an exploitable matchup against Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers, who are ranked 19th in adjusted DvP against point guards. Jackson isn’t generally thought of as a cash game type of play, but he is in a great spot tonight and the upside is massive. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a mixed track record against the Cavaliers, but he does have three 27+ fantasy point outings in their last six meetings. At $4,700 on FanDuel, he should at least be on your radar. Marcus Morris has cooled off recently, largely in part thanks to the play of Tobias Harris. In his last five games, Harris is averaging 35 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 25%. Of the two forwards, I prefer Harris over Morris. Andre Drummond has back-to-back games with at least 20 points and 15 rebounds. He has a good history against Cleveland and makes for an excellent tournament play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,200 $5,800 0.90 28.2 0.0 25.3 4.1 29.5% 0.2% 19 -1.53
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,700 $5,600 0.71 34.0 -2.6 24.1 -5.5 19.4% -4.4% 29 -0.49
Marcus Morris $5,900 $6,000 0.74 33.1 -1.2 24.6 0.0 20.2% -0.5% 18 1.17
Tobias Harris $6,000 $6,200 0.83 31.6 0.5 26.2 8.9 21.7% 3.3% 7 -0.61
Andre Drummond $8,000 $7,600 1.20 30.5 0.2 36.6 3.2 22.4% -1.9% 20 1.30

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (Cash), Marcus Morris

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have lost six of their last ten games and are now only two games ahead of the Celtics in the East. I fully expect the Cavaliers to have home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, but they may not be able to rest guys as often as they’d like down the stretch of the regular season. Cleveland is looking for some revenge tonight, as they host the Pistons, who beat them in Detroit last week. The Pistons are not a great matchup on paper, but the Cavaliers’ offense is extremely efficient. They come into the game as 7.5-point favorites with an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the third highest in the slate.

Kyrie Irving continues to exceed value on a regular basis. With Kevin Love out of the lineup, Irving has a 36% usage rate and averages 1.29 fantasy points per minute. Those are massive boosts for Irving and I will continue to ride the hot hand. Irving scored 36 fantasy points against Detroit last week in a game where he had only three assists and didn’t record a single block or steal. His peripheral statistics should improve this time around. LeBron James has put the Cavaliers on his back recently, averaging 55 fantasy points in his last five games. We are finally starting to see a high-ceiling LeBron, which puts him in play in all formats. He is the second best fantasy option overall, right behind Russell Westbrook. The rest of the Cavaliers can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,300 $8,700 1.09 35.3 2.8 38.4 3.5 32.2% 1.0% 21 -2.90
Iman Shumpert $3,600 $3,400 0.57 25.8 4.0 14.8 0.3 13.8% 0.5% 2 -0.02
LeBron James $11,200 $11,000 1.30 37.7 1.2 48.9 6.0 33.0% 1.0% 6 0.87
Richard Jefferson $3,600 $3,300 0.50 20.6 8.4 10.4 3.1 12.3% -1.8% 20 -0.97
Tristan Thompson $5,600 $5,100 0.78 30.2 -0.2 23.5 0.4 11.2% 1.3% 5 1.29

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James

Secondary Plays – NONE

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers New York Knicks
indiananba Vegas Total 211.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 104.0
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Willy Hernangomez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 26 24 18 27 Adj. DvP 11 17 16 8 17
DRPM -2.62 -0.86 -1.93 1.97 1.13 DRPM -0.16 -0.54 -0.27 2.15 2.19

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won five of their last ten games and are currently in sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings. While they should be able to make the playoffs, they will need to finish the season on somewhat of a strong note. Tonight they host the Knicks, who have seemingly been out of playoff contention since December. This is an excellent matchup for fantasy production, as New York is ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Pacers have an implied total of 107 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 2.3 points above their season average.

This is a strange situation, as I’m pretty sure I haven’t rostered a Pacers’ player in at least a couple of weeks. If you look at the player table below, you will see a lot of red boxes, which means their players have seen decreases in both minutes and fantasy production. This is a good bounce-back spot for Jeff Teague, but he’s more of a GPP play given his recent form. C.J. Miles has done enough to win the starting shooting guard gig and he has played well in that role, averaging 19 fantasy points in his last five games. If you need a value play at shooting guard, you can certainly do worse than Miles. Paul George is the one Pacers’ player in good form right now. In his last five games, he is averaging 42 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 28%. Even at his elevated price point, he deserves consideration in all formats. Thaddeus Young’s minutes have been all over the map, but he is only $4,300 on DraftKings and is facing an exploitable Knicks’ frontcourt. Myles Turner is a fade for me in this slate. I’d rather pay a bit more to get up to the likes of Brook Lopez, Jusuf Nurkic, and Andre Drummond.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $6,800 $6,700 1.02 32.4 -2.2 32.9 -6.0 26.3% -0.1% 10 -2.62
C.J. Miles $3,900 $4,100 0.72 23.6 5.4 16.9 1.6 17.2% -2.7% 26 -0.86
Paul George $8,100 $8,200 1.00 35.4 1.3 35.5 6.8 27.7% 0.4% 24 -1.93
Thaddeus Young $4,800 $4,300 0.77 30.1 -3.0 23.2 -4.9 16.1% -0.1% 18 1.97
Myles Turner $6,200 $5,700 0.97 30.9 -1.1 29.9 -7.0 19.1% -4.5% 27 1.13
Monta Ellis $4,300 $3,600 0.64 26.8 -3.4 17.3 -4.3 18.3% 3.6% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul George

Secondary Plays – C.J. Miles, Thaddeus Young (DK)

New York Knicks

The Knicks have lost three games in a row and seven of their last ten. They are one of only eight teams in the NBA with a losing record at home. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The fact that this game is being played in New York should help keep the game competitive. The Knicks are only listed as 3-point underdogs and they have an implied total of 104 points.

Derrick Rose has seen a minutes bump since the Knicks waived Brandon Jennings, but he hasn’t been able to do much with it. He is only averaging 28 fantasy points over his last five games and the Pacers have been decent against point guards, ranking 11th in adjusted DvP. Courtney Lee has been playing 35+ minutes on a regular basis. While I trust him about as far as I can throw him, I may have a few tournament shares tonight. Carmelo Anthony has taken a backseat in the Knicks’ offense with a 6.8% usage decrease in his last five games. For now, I will be avoiding him in all formats until that usage rate goes back up. Kristaps Porzingis is the one Knicks’ player that we can target with confidence tonight. In his last five games, he is averaging over 35 minutes and over 37 fantasy points per contest. Willy Hernangomez was inexplicably benched in the Knicks last game, but still managed a decent outing. While I’m a big fan of the Hernangomez brothers, I wish his minutes were a little more secure right now.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,500 $6,100 0.88 32.6 0.4 28.7 -0.9 27.5% -1.4% 11 -0.16
Courtney Lee $5,100 $4,900 0.62 32.0 4.0 19.9 3.5 14.5% 1.0% 17 -0.54
Carmelo Anthony $7,700 $7,400 1.01 34.5 2.3 34.9 -7.3 29.2% -6.8% 16 -0.27
Kristaps Porzingis $6,600 $7,200 0.99 32.9 2.6 32.7 4.9 23.3% -0.8% 8 2.15
Willy Hernangomez $5,700 $5,300 1.03 16.8 3.9 17.2 5.7 19.5% 5.5% 17 2.19

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, Willy Hernangomez

Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Brooklyn Nets
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 224.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Team Total 115.3 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- 4.9 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Randy Foye Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 28 30 30 29 26 Adj. DvP 20 10 13 13 23
DRPM -0.37 -1.75 -1.23 0.69 0.30 DRPM -0.09 0.85 2.02 1.46 1.67

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won six of their last ten games and draw the best matchup in the slate. We love targeting players against Brooklyn because they are the fastest paced team in the NBA and they are ranked dead last in points allowed per game. It is the perfect combination, much like a Corona on a beach. The best part is that the game is on the road, so the Thunder are only listed as 6-point favorites. As long as the game stays close, the Thunder should put up a ton of points. They come into the game with an implied total of 115.3 points, which is the second highest in the slate and nine points above their season average.

Russell Westbrook is the top player in the slate and I shouldn’t have to talk you into playing him. The Nets are the fastest paced team in the NBA and they are ranked 28th in adjusted DvP against point guards. In addition to the Thunder needing to win to keep pace in the West, Westbrook is going for some NBA records in the next couple of months. A game with 15 rebounds and 15 assists would certainly help his cause to try to average a triple-double on the season. Obviously, there is a 5% chance that he could put up a dud, but I will be forcing Westbrook into my lineups tonight. Victor Oladipo played 38 minutes the other night and should easily exceed value if he plays anywhere near 35 minutes tonight against the Nets. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite shooting guard target in the slate. Andre Roberson is usually an easy fade for me, but this is a game where he could rack up some steals and blocks and hit a few open threes. If you need a punt play other than Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, I don’t mind Roberson. Taj Gibson has not played well in the starting lineup, but should play 22-24 minutes against a Nets’ team that is ranked 28th in rebounding differential and 29th against power forwards. Enes Kanter and Steven Adams should also beat up on the Nets’ weak frontcourt.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,400 $13,400 1.67 34.9 1.0 58.3 9.9 46.1% 1.9% 28 -0.37
Victor Oladipo $5,900 $6,300 0.80 33.5 -3.1 26.7 1.5 21.1% 0.0% 30 -1.75
Andre Roberson $4,000 $3,900 0.59 30.5 -0.7 17.9 -2.0 10.2% -0.5% 30 -1.23
Taj Gibson $4,000 $4,100 0.82 26.7 -5.6 21.9 -9.8 18.0% -1.6% 29 0.69
Steven Adams $5,300 $5,000 0.82 30.5 -1.6 25.1 -4.6 16.4% -1.8% 26 0.30
Enes Kanter $5,600 $5,600 1.12 21.7 -1.3 24.3 -1.3 25.9% 1.7% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Andre Roberson, Taj Gibson, Enes Kanter, Steven Adams

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have quietly been playing some solid basketball. They may not have many wins to show for it, but the fact that they are only 6-point underdogs against the Thunder says a lot about the way they are playing. Oklahoma City isn’t exactly an ideal matchup, but it’s certainly not the worst one on the board. They are currently ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 11th in defensive efficiency. With this game being played in Brooklyn, Vegas is expecting the Nets’ offense to show up. They have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 3.5 points above their season average.

Jeremy Lin has played 27 minutes in back-to-back games and is averaging 27 fantasy points in his last five outings. Now that he is seeing minutes in the upper 20s, we can target him with confidence in all formats. He has been terrific on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.09 fantasy points on the season, which is identical to Kyrie Irving (just saying). I slightly prefer Reggie Jackson over Lin because of his upside, but will have a ton of exposure to both players in this slate. Sean Kilpatrick is averaging 26.6 minutes and 28 fantasy points in his last five games. He remains an elite value play on FanDuel at $4,200. The only other Nets’ player that is consistently seeing big minutes is Brook Lopez, who remains a great play on DraftKings. He should see his usual allotment of 30 minutes against a Thunder team that has plummeted in the adjusted DvP rankings against centers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $5,800 $5,700 1.09 23.3 1.5 25.5 1.6 28.6% 1.8% 20 -0.09
Randy Foye $3,500 $3,000 0.58 18.4 -2.4 10.8 -2.0 16.6% -3.8% 10 0.85
Caris LeVert $4,000 $3,700 0.72 20.9 3.3 15.0 3.1 16.4% -3.1% 13 2.02
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,400 $4,300 0.87 21.8 0.3 18.9 3.3 18.7% 0.8% 13 1.46
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,500 1.10 29.6 1.0 32.6 -1.4 28.1% -1.4% 23 1.67
Sean Kilpatrick $4,200 $4,900 0.83 25.8 0.8 21.4 6.5 23.6% -0.4% 10 N/A
Trevor Booker $5,400 $5,000 0.96 26.0 -1.3 25.1 -1.8 18.3% 1.8% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lin, Sean Kilpatrick (FD), Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (DK), Brook Lopez (FD)

Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers New Orleans Pelicans
portlandnba Vegas Total 216.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 109.8
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 0.8
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Hollis Thompson Solomon Hill DeMarcus Cousins Anthony Davis
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 11 10 21 22 Adj. DvP 22 14 14 12 14
DRPM 0.92 -1.23 1.31 0.51 3.18 DRPM -1.92 -2.14 0.97 1.42 2.52

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have won six of their last ten games and have still lost ground to the Nuggets. With 17 games to play, they are two full games behind Denver for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. Tonight’s game against the Pelicans could serve as an elimination game. New Orleans didn’t have a great defensive game against the Hornets, but their lineup is full of good defenders. Four of their five starters have a DRPM of at least 0.50 this season. The Blazers come into tonight’s game as 3.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106.3 points. Of the ten teams in play tonight, the Blazers have the worst projected point differential at -2.3.

Damian Lillard has played well since the All-Star break, but I may end up being under-weight on him compared to the field. He’s not in a bad spot by any means, but the Blazers’ implied total is below their season average and Jrue Holiday is an above-average defender. I keep finding myself going up to Russell Westbrook and then down to the Jeremy Lin and Reggie Jackson at point guard. C.J. McCollum is coming off of two big games against the Wizards and Suns, but will likely be defended by Solomon Hill tonight. Both Lillard and McCollum are in play here, but I don’t see them as core plays in this slate. Maurice Harkless is in a nice bounce back spot if you need a cheap small forward on FanDuel. After burning everyone the other night, his ownership will be suppressed. Jusuf Nurkic continues to be a per-minute monster, but we have to worry about foul trouble against DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis. Nurkic has 35 minute upside, but he could also get into early foul trouble and end up play 25 minutes. For that reason, Nurkic is a better GPP play than he is a cash game play. Al-Farouq Aminu should see 30-32 minutes off the bench and makes for a strong play on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,800 $8,800 1.12 36.1 1.2 40.5 0.0 32.4% 1.5% 23 0.92
C.J. McCollum $7,300 $7,500 0.97 35.1 4.5 34.2 2.6 27.7% -2.8% 11 -1.23
Maurice Harkless $4,500 $4,800 0.71 29.6 1.1 21.0 1.5 15.3% -2.6% 10 1.31
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.68 14.0 4.1 9.5 4.6 13.2% 0.0% 21 0.51
Jusuf Nurkic $6,600 $7,000 1.05 20.1 9.9 21.1 17.3 23.2% 1.9% 22 3.18
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,200 $5,500 0.77 29.4 3.3 22.5 1.5 15.3% -1.0% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless (FD), Al-Farouq Aminu

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are coming off of a win against the Hornets in overtime. It was a strange game, as DeMarcus Cousins was in foul trouble all game and then down the stretch and in overtime, Alvin Gentry decided to keep him on the bench with five fouls. It’s one thing to ride the hot hand, but you basically just made a franchise-altering move to acquire Cousins. The last thing you want to do is create a divide by benching him in crunch time. Tonight the Pelicans host the Blazers in what is an exploitable matchup for fantasy production. New Orleans has an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the fourth highest implied total in the slate and 6.8 points above their season average.

Jrue Holiday has played well since the DeMarcus Cousins trade, but I’m still bullish on him moving forward. There are two huge mouths that need to be fed in this offense and that usage will likely come from Holiday eventually. In this slate, I will be looking elsewhere at point guard. I’m not too interested in either wing starter on the Pelicans, but E’Twaun Moore and Jordan Crawford are both intriguing tournament punts off the bench. Anthony Davis had a massive game on his birthday and received a price bump on both sites. Meanwhile, DeMarcus Cousins is only $9,000 on FanDuel and $9,600 on DraftKings. I will gladly take the huge discount and roll with Cousins. Not only is this an exploitable matchup, but the Pelicans will look to get Cousins involved early. Give me all the cousins tonight. We’ll have a family reunion.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,700 $7,000 1.01 32.8 2.5 33.0 0.9 27.7% -1.8% 22 -1.92
Hollis Thompson $3,500 $3,000 0.58 18.8 -0.5 10.9 -1.3 12.6% -1.4% 14 -2.14
Solomon Hill $3,600 $3,200 0.52 28.9 3.3 15.1 -2.7 11.3% -0.8% 14 0.97
DeMarcus Cousins $9,000 $9,600 1.41 34.2 1.0 48.3 -12.9 35.4% -4.2% 12 1.42
Anthony Davis $11,600 $10,500 1.38 36.2 -0.5 50.1 -5.3 30.7% -1.5% 14 2.52
E’Twaun Moore $3,700 $3,300 0.68 25.0 3.0 16.9 -1.1 17.8% -2.5% 14 N/A
Jordan Crawford $3,500 $3,900 1.02 24.6 0.0 25.1 0.0 21.9% 0.0% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis, E’Twaun Moore, Jordan Crawford

Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Golden State Warriors
philadelphianba Vegas Total 219.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread 16.5 Vegas Spread -16.5
Team Total 101.3 Team Total 117.8
Pace +/- 3.8 Pace +/- 2.1
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Gerald Henderson Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Patrick McCaw Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 12 12 15 25 11 Adj. DvP 17 27 21 16 30
DRPM 0.14 -0.96 -1.30 4.76 3.77 DRPM -0.11 -1.31 -0.54 -1.30 -1.54

Philadelphia 76ers

I’m glad that this is the final game of the night. From the time I started writing today’s Grind Down, Robert Covington went from questionable to out, and now back to questionable. He took part in shoot-around, so we have to at least consider him a 50/50 shot to play tonight. The Sixers come into the game as 16.5-point underdogs against the Warriors on the road. This game has blowout written all over it, but Covington would at least help their chances in keeping this game close. The Sixers have an implied total of 101.3 points, which is the lowest in the slate. With this game having such a large spread, my plan is to avoid it entirely in cash games. I was originally planning to use Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot at minimum salary on DraftKings, but he is a bit risky now that Covington has been upgraded to questionable. Dario Saric has been on an absolute tear since the All-Star break, but I have a tough time using him in cash game in a potential blowout. The same goes for Jahlil Okafor, who is averaging 28 fantasy points in his last five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,400 $5,600 0.81 25.4 2.2 20.7 2.2 19.1% -2.4% 12 0.14
Gerald Henderson $3,600 $3,500 0.66 24.0 -0.3 15.9 -2.1 17.9% -0.9% 12 -0.96
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $3,700 $3,000 0.57 13.3 10.2 7.6 6.3 16.7% -0.9% 15 -1.30
Dario Saric $7,700 $8,100 0.89 25.8 8.9 23.0 12.8 23.6% 3.5% 25 4.76
Jahlil Okafor $5,200 $5,200 0.90 23.1 2.4 20.7 7.0 23.0% 4.1% 11 3.77
Richaun Holmes $4,500 $4,900 0.94 17.8 5.5 16.8 6.0 17.5% 1.3% 25 N/A
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,400 0.58 27.0 1.0 15.8 -1.2 16.3% 1.1% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dario Saric (GPP), Jahlil Okafor (GPP)

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have lost three games in a row and five of their last ten. It didn’t take long for the Spurs to catch them in the standings, as both teams now sit at 52-14 overall. This would typically be a good spot for the Warriors to rest players, but they need to get back to their winning ways. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Steve Kerr leave his starters in for a few extra minutes in a blowout just to get their confidence back. With that said, this is a risky game to target in cash games. The Warriors are 16.5-point favorites and their implied total is pretty close to their season average. I plan to have exposure to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green in tournaments, but there are safer targets in cash games. I will note that today is Curry’s birthday if you want to play that narrative. We saw what Anthony Davis was able to do on his birthday the other night.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,100 $9,800 1.21 33.6 1.9 40.6 1.6 30.8% 2.9% 17 -0.11
Klay Thompson $7,200 $6,900 0.89 34.2 0.1 30.3 3.3 24.6% 2.8% 27 -1.31
Patrick McCaw $3,500 $3,500 0.53 14.5 13.9 7.7 4.7 12.8% -1.3% 21 -0.54
Draymond Green $7,900 $7,700 1.06 33.0 2.6 35.1 -1.4 19.0% -0.5% 16 -1.30
Zaza Pachulia $4,400 $3,800 0.97 18.7 0.8 18.2 2.4 15.6% 1.8% 30 -1.54
Andre Iguodala $4,900 $4,600 0.72 26.2 5.2 18.8 4.8 12.4% 0.7% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (GPP), Klay Thompson (GPP), Draymond Green (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andre Iguodala

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious