NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, October 31st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Buddy Hield | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Domantas Sabonis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 25 | 17 | 15 | 25 | DvP | 19 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 29 | |
| DRPM | -1.67 | 1.64 | -2.76 | 1.69 | 1.92 | DRPM | 0.60 | -2.24 | N/A | -1.06 | 1.06 | |
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries
Zach Randolph (Questionable)
The Kings and Pacers are two teams that struggle on the defensive end of the floor. While Sacramento is currently playing at one of the slowest paces in the league, Indiana should be able to control the tempo since they are playing at home. We could be in for a fast-paced game between two teams that are both ranked in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency this season. The Kings come into the game with an implied total of 102.5 points. While that doesn’t seem high compared to the other totals in the slate, it’s 6.5 points above their season average.
One of the more frustrating trends in the NBA this season is coaches that refuse to give any of their players more than 30 minutes per game. We’ve seen it with the Nets and we are seeing it with the Kings. They don’t have a single player on their roster that is averaging more than 28.5 minutes per game. This is brutal for fantasy production because it lowers each player’s floor and ceiling. It also leads to inconsistent rotations and coaches taking more of the “hot hand” approach.
George Hill is expected to play tonight, which should send De’Aaron Fox back to the bench. Regardless of who starts, both players should see between 26-30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season. At their respective price points, I’m more inclined to play Hill in cash games and Fox in tournaments. Buddy Hield has not had the breakout season that many expected and in fact, is only playing around 24 minutes a night. For now, he can be avoided in all formats.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has scored at least ten actual points in each of his first three NBA games and should be able to keep the streak alive tonight in Indiana. It will be fun to watch the battle of the Bogdanovic’s tonight, even though the two aren’t actually related. Zach Randolph is listed as questionable. If he’s able to suit up, we can look to him on FanDuel ($4,500) where we have to use two power forwards. If he’s out, give a boost to both Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein. However, we should keep an eye on the status of Domantas Sabonis. If he is ruled out, we could see both of these teams play small, which would constrict the minutes for the Kings’ frontcourt.
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.0 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.8 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $4,400 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 17.5 | 28.5 | 0.61 | 15.7% | 23 | -1.67 |
| Buddy Hield | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,200 | 20.2 | 24.3 | 0.83 | 23.8% | 25 | 1.64 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,900 | 23.7 | 24.8 | 0.96 | 20.8% | 17 | -2.76 |
| Zach Randolph | $4,500 | $5,200 | $10,500 | 22.1 | 23.7 | 0.93 | 22.6% | 15 | 1.69 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $5,300 | $5,400 | $9,900 | 25.6 | 27.9 | 0.92 | 15.8% | 25 | 1.92 |
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,300 | $5,900 | $12,400 | 25.5 | 26.7 | 0.95 | 25.7% | N/A | N/A |
| Skal Labissiere | $4,900 | $4,600 | $8,400 | 22.3 | 22.8 | 0.98 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – George Hill, De’Aaron Fox (GPP), Bogdan Bogdanovic, Zach Randolph (FD), Skal Labissiere (if Randolph is out), Willie Cauley-Stein
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Out)
Domantas Sabonis (Questionable)
The Pacers have changed their style of play this season. They are ranked fifth in pace of play and are currently averaging over 111 points per game. This makes them a better team to target for fantasy production and a better matchup for opponents. Even though the Kings have played at a slow pace this season, I generally side with the pace of the home team. If that’s the case, the Pacers will be in a great spot against the Kings, who are ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. Indiana has an implied total of 108 points, which is the third highest of the slate.
Darren Collison has played for a number of teams over the years, but most recently it was for the Kings. He has a little revenge narrative brewing against his former team. Collison has really played well this season, averaging 33 fantasy points per game. He’ll see plenty of time against De’Aaron Fox, who hasn’t been the best on-ball defender in his rookie season. Victor Oladipo has a 27% usage rate and is averaging 1.27 FP/min. If you take away the name, his price looks appealing in a matchup against the Kings. I expect his ownership to be lower than it should based on the fact that he “seems” too expensive.
Bojan Bogdanovic has played at least 29 minutes in three straight games. At a price of $4,100 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings, it’s hard to pass up 30 minutes of action against the Kings. He’s a streaky shooter that doesn’t offer much in terms of peripheral stats, but he has 7x type of upside here. The key injury to monitor here is Domantas Sabonis. He has an illness and will likely end up being a game-time decision. If he’s active, he’ll make one of the better tournament plays on the board. DFS players are always hesitant when it comes to injuries, so his ownership will be very low if he ends up playing. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in three of his last four starts.
If Sabonis is ruled out, Thaddeus Young could be in line for a large workload. He is already averaging 32.5 minutes per game this season and that number could get into the upper 30s with Myles Turner also out tonight. Young would become a core cash game play in that scenario. TJ Leaf would also see a bump in Sabonis’s absence, but he’s more of a GPP dart than anything else. I’d expect the Pacers to play more small ball without Sabonis, which could give a few extra minutes to Cory Joseph and/or Lance Stephenson.
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,500 | $6,000 | $12,400 | 33.4 | 33.2 | 1.00 | 19.3% | 19 | 0.60 |
| Victor Oladipo | $7,900 | $7,700 | $15,400 | 39.7 | 31.3 | 1.27 | 27.5% | 8 | -2.24 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 15.4 | 27.9 | 0.55 | 15.3% | 1 | N/A |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,800 | $5,200 | $10,700 | 26.6 | 32.5 | 0.82 | 15.5% | 13 | -1.06 |
| Domantas Sabonis | $6,000 | $5,700 | $10,400 | 29.1 | 25.9 | 1.13 | 16.5% | 29 | 1.06 |
| Cory Joseph | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 19.9 | 23.9 | 0.83 | 17.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $3,100 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 12.9 | 18.6 | 0.69 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A |
| TJ Leaf | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 11.2 | 16.0 | 0.70 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young (if Sabonis is out)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young (If Sabonis is active), Cory Joseph, Domantas Sabonis (GPP – if active)
Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 231.0 |  | Vegas Total | 231.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 113.3 | Implied Team Total | 117.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 6.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Mike James | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | D’Angelo Russell | Caris LeVert | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 15 | 22 | 30 | 24 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 14 | 26 | 6 | |
| DRPM | -2.42 | -0.76 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 0.90 | DRPM | N/A | -2.66 | -2.50 | -1.80 | 2.31 | |
Phoenix Suns
Notable Injuries
None
The Suns are still working the phones to get a deal in place to trade Eric Bledsoe. It sounds like they are going to be patient and that they aren’t going to trade him for a bag of peanuts and a bad draft pick. In the meantime, he will continue to miss games. Tonight the Suns head to Brooklyn in what is the best matchup in all of NBA DFS. The Nets are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. Even on the road, we have to give the Suns a bump up in this matchup. They have an implied total of 113.3 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 11 points higher than their season average.
Mike James played well in his first career start (27 fantasy points), but struggled in his next two against the Jazz and Blazers. This is by far his best matchup to date. People will be hesitant to use him tonight, but he has played 26 minutes in two of his three starts thus far. If he plays well (which he should against D’Angelo Russell), we could see that number creep up into the 28-30 range. Even if he only plays 25 minutes against the Nets, that’s like 30 minutes against an average NBA team. I’m buying low on James in all formats.
Devin Booker is the only player on the Suns that we can project to play more than 30 minutes tonight. Phoenix has been involved in a number of blowouts this season, which has lowered his minute average as a whole. In close games, we can expect him to play 35+ minutes. I will gladly pay a premium for Booker in this matchup. T.J. Warren is basically splitting time with Josh Jackson right now. While that’s frustrating, the Nets play a lot of small ball, which could open up some time for them to play on the floor together. Warren is inconsistent, but I’m betting on his talent in an elite matchup.
As far as the Suns’ frontcourt, my guess is as good as yours when it comes to their rotation. Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender are splitting the power forward minutes, while Tyson Chandler and Alex Len are splitting the center minutes. I expect a couple of the Suns’ bigs to play well here, but predicting which one is difficult. My favorite is Chandler, who has scored at least 19 fantasy points in five straight games. Even in a beautiful matchup against the Nets, the Suns’ bigs are better tournament fliers than cash game targets.
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 118.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.4 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 19.6 | 22.1 | 0.89 | 21.3% | 24 | -2.42 |
| Devin Booker | $7,200 | $7,900 | $14,000 | 35.3 | 32.4 | 1.09 | 24.8% | 15 | -0.76 |
| T.J. Warren | $5,100 | $5,200 | $9,700 | 25.0 | 27.8 | 0.90 | 20.3% | 22 | 1.09 |
| Marquese Chriss | $4,700 | $4,100 | $8,900 | 17.7 | 19.7 | 0.90 | 13.9% | 30 | 1.36 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,600 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 21.8 | 24.6 | 0.89 | 9.4% | 24 | 0.90 |
| Dragan Bender | $3,400 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 14.2 | 20.3 | 0.70 | 8.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Alex Len | $4,300 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 21.6 | 23.0 | 0.94 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Josh Jackson | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 19.6 | 25.2 | 0.78 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mike James, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren (FD), Tyson Chandler (DK)
Secondary Plays – T.J. Warren (DK & FDRFT), Marquese Chriss (GPP), Tyson Chandler (FD & FDRFT), Josh Jackson
Brooklyn Nets
Notable Injuries
DeMarre Carroll (Questionable)
If we can accurately predict the minutes in this game, we should be able to win all of the money in this slate. We have the two fastest-paced teams in the NBA, who just so happen to be ranked 29th and 30th in points allowed per game. Basically, the two best matchups in all of NBA DFS are squaring off against one another. If you try to fade this game because you are worried about the volatility of these players, you will find yourself behind the pack. This game is a fantasy goldmine. The Nets come into the game with an implied total of 117.8 points, which is the highest o the slate.
D’Angelo Russell has only played 17 and 24 minutes in his first two games back from injury. What the box score doesn’t tell you is that Russell sat the last five minutes of the last game due to a blowout. Assuming tonight’s game stays close, we should see Russell in the 28-30 minute range. He has a massive 32% true usage this season and he is facing a Suns’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards. The best part is that Russell is listed as a shooting guard on FanDuel, which allows us to roster three true point guards tonight.
DeMarre Carroll is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Caris LeVert and Allen Crabbe would both become viable plays on the wing. LeVert and Crabbe have been inconsistent this season, but they will matchup against the likes of Devin Booker (-2.66 DRPM) and T.J. Warren (-2.50 DRPM). Spencer Dinwiddie would also see a boost off the bench if Carroll is out. If Carroll is active, I would bump all three down to secondary plays. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson should be playing more, but for now we’ll have to settle with 25-26 minutes a night. He is averaging over a fantasy point per minute and he gets to face a Suns’ team that is ranked 26th against power forwards and 24th in rebounding differential.
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 117.2 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.0 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Angelo Russell | $7,000 | $7,300 | $14,800 | 31.6 | 26.1 | 1.21 | 32.0% | 30 | N/A |
| Caris LeVert | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,600 | 23.5 | 27.8 | 0.84 | 19.5% | 28 | -2.66 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,400 | $5,300 | $11,200 | 29.6 | 27.5 | 1.08 | 18.3% | 14 | -2.50 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $5,900 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 1.03 | 18.0% | 26 | -1.80 |
| Timofey Mozgov | $3,300 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 12.4 | 15.9 | 0.78 | 10.0% | 6 | 2.31 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,500 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 18.4 | 24.7 | 0.74 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A |
| Trevor Booker | $4,300 | $4,900 | $9,500 | 23.6 | 22.7 | 1.04 | 19.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,600 | 25.1 | 23.1 | 1.09 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert & Allen Crabbe (if Carroll is out)
Secondary Plays – Caris LeVert & Allen Crabbe (if Carroll is active), DeMarre Carroll (if active), Spencer Dinwiddie (if Carroll is out), Trevor Booker (FD)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Malcolm Brogdon | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Thon Maker | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 11 | DvP | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 5 | |
| DRPM | -0.73 | -0.79 | 0.54 | 1.49 | -0.53 | DRPM | -0.59 | 2.47 | 0.13 | -1.49 | 1.42 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
None
The Thunder have looked really good and really bad at times this season. That’s to be expected with the major roster overhaul. This is a team that has enough talent to compete in the West, but they’ll have to stay healthy and they’ll have to be content with their current roles in the offense. As far as tonight goes, they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game that features a total of 212 points. The Bucks have some capable defenders in their lineup, but are right around the league average in terms of points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.
Everyone is talking the decreased usage for Russell Westbrook, but his triple-double upside hasn’t faded and a usage rate of 31% is nothing to scoff at. If you take out his bad shooting performance against the Jazz, he has scored at least 48 fantasy points in every game so far this season. In these smaller slates, we often need those raw fantasy points, even if a player doesn’t technically “reach value.” With a decent number of value plays available, Westbrook is still viable in all formats.
Paul George and Carmelo Anthony have nearly identical minutes and fantasy production so far this season. George is doing more on the peripheral side, while Anthony is averaging 23.8 points per game. They are both viable tonight against the Bucks, although I don’t see either as a building block in my lineups. Steven Adams continues to play well down low. With more weapons offensively, Adams is getting a lot of easy buckets per game. Tonight he squares off against a Bucks’ team that is without Greg Monroe and that is ranked 26th in rebounding differential.
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,100 | $11,200 | $22,900 | 50.8 | 34.4 | 1.48 | 31.2% | 20 | -0.73 |
| Andre Roberson | $3,000 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 9.4 | 17.9 | 0.52 | 10.6% | 3 | -0.79 |
| Paul George | $7,800 | $7,500 | $14,200 | 36.0 | 33.4 | 1.08 | 23.7% | 10 | 0.54 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $7,400 | $7,100 | $14,800 | 36.1 | 34.1 | 1.06 | 25.6% | 14 | 1.49 |
| Steven Adams | $6,600 | $5,800 | $11,900 | 33.9 | 31.3 | 1.08 | 14.4% | 11 | -0.53 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries
Greg Monroe (Out)
The Bucks are 4-2 to start the season. While their defense hasn’t lived up to expectations, their offense has looked good with Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against a Thunder team that plays at an average pace and is ranked fourth in points allowed per game this season. The Bucks’ implied total of 105.3 points is nearly identical to their season average. While their team total does seem a big high, they are playing in Milwaukee, which helps.
Russell Westbrook often gets the rap of being an awful defender, when really he’s average for a point guard. When committed, he can actually be a good defender. The last few years we have been targeting point guards against the Thunder, but that may not be the case this season. Not only does he draw as many fouls as anyone in basketball, but the Thunder have an elite team defense. I love that Malcolm Brogdon is playing 35 minutes per game, but this is far from a great spot. I’d rather take a shot on Mike James against the Nets.
The Thunder have two elite defenders on the wing in Andre Roberson and Paul George. I’m not Billy Donovan, but I expect Roberson to be on Khris Middleton and George to be on Antetokounmpo. That would leave Carmelo Anthony on Tony Snell, which makes all the sense in the world. Middleton is a player that I like to use in tournaments because he is consistently under-owned, but this isn’t the spot to play him. Giannis is more matchup-proof with his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Even against George, Giannis is the top overall play tonight.
Greg Monroe has already been ruled out for the next couple of weeks, but that doesn’t do much for Thon Maker. He will still see 15-20 minutes a game. With such a low usage rate, it will be hard for him to truly exceed value consistently. The more intriguing option in the frontcourt is John Henson. He played 27 minutes and scored 39 fantasy points against the Hawks his last time out. I wouldn’t expect him to play anywhere close to that tonight, but 22-24 minutes off the bench makes him a viable play in tournaments.
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,200 | $5,600 | $12,000 | 27.8 | 34.5 | 0.81 | 18.1% | 2 | -0.59 |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 16.1 | 31.7 | 0.51 | 10.1% | 5 | 2.47 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,300 | $6,900 | $11,900 | 32.5 | 36.0 | 0.90 | 22.8% | 9 | 0.13 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,600 | $12,500 | $23,100 | 61.6 | 39.0 | 1.58 | 30.6% | 16 | -1.49 |
| Thon Maker | $3,700 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 13.4 | 16.5 | 0.81 | 11.3% | 5 | 1.42 |
| John Henson | $4,800 | $4,100 | $8,600 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.99 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon (DK), John Henson (GPP)
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.0 | Vegas Spread | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 27 | 8 | 28 | 8 | DvP | 7 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 3 | |
| DRPM | N/A | -1.01 | -2.88 | 1.84 | 0.37 | DRPM | -2.98 | -1.13 | 0.19 | -0.53 | 1.37 | |
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries
None
The Pistons defied all odds and beat the Warriors in Oakland on Sunday. It would be a very Piston thing to do if they came in and got blown out by the Lakers. I’m not expecting that to happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it did. From a fantasy standpoint, this is one of the better matchups in the league. The Lakers are ranked fourth in pace of play and 22nd in points allowed per game. Detroit is listed as a 4-point favorite with an implied total of 106 points.
I’ve been hesitant to play Reggie Jackson this season because I’ve wanted to see his minutes in a game where he performed poorly. He hasn’t really had any bad outings yet, but it’s promising that he’s played at least 26 minutes in every game that hasn’t been a blowout. He draws an excellent matchup against Lonzo Ball and the Lakers and he leads all Pistons’ starters with a true usage of 27%. Tonight will be the first night I roster Jackson this season, so hopefully we get off on the right foot. Or even the left one — any kind of footing would be nice.
Avery Bradley put up four straight duds to start the season. I just so happened to play him in every one of those starts. After everyone reached out to me and told me to throw in the towel, I had no choice. He then bounced back and reeled off three straight 30+ fantasy point outings. I hate to say it, but Bradley is back in my life. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is known as a great defender, but his DRPM wasn’t great last season. I’d much rather play Bradley with a 21% usage rate than take a shot on Stanley Johnson, who has a 13% usage rate and an inflated price point.
The Lakers’ frontcourt isn’t as bad as it has been in recent years. They have improved on the glass and both Larry Nance and Brook Lopez have positive DRPM grades from last season. That doesn’t mean that we can’t play bigs against L.A., but they aren’t the lock matchup that they used to be. Between Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond, I have to side with number zero tonight. Drummond has the third highest FP/min of any starter in this slate, he is more involved offensively, and the Lakers are still a bottom ten rebounding team.
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.0 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $6,300 | $6,200 | $12,900 | 31.2 | 29.0 | 1.08 | 27.0% | 22 | N/A |
| Avery Bradley | $5,700 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 25.0 | 30.4 | 0.82 | 20.8% | 27 | -1.01 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 19.4 | 31.2 | 0.62 | 13.1% | 8 | -2.88 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,400 | $6,700 | $12,700 | 29.2 | 32.7 | 0.89 | 23.0% | 28 | 1.84 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,200 | $8,200 | $13,500 | 41.6 | 32.5 | 1.28 | 16.9% | 8 | 0.37 |
Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris (FD)
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries
None
The Lakers are looking to avoid their third loss in a row. Well, I suppose their management doesn’t mind a losing streak, but the players will be looking to get back in the win column. They are only listed as 4-point underdogs tonight against the Pistons. Unfortunately, this is a pace-down game for the Lakers and not the best matchup. The Pistons are ranked ninth in points allowed per game. Los Angeles has an implied total of 102 points, which is the lowest in the slight and slightly below their season average.
It’s been frustrating trying to predict the Lakers’ rotation this season, but Lonzo Ball is the one player that we can lock in for 35 minutes a night. He has yet to shoot the ball well (31% from the floor), yet he’s still averaging 32 fantasy points per game thanks to his ability to fill up the stat sheet. The weakest defenders on the Pistons are Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith, which bodes well for Lonzo. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays on the board, especially if we see his ownership projection dip below 15%.
This is a revenge spot for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. As usual, KCP has been inconsistent this season, but he’ll be motivated and perhaps more aggressive than usual. At his price point, he makes an excellent tournament play and a decent cash game option on FanDuel. Outside of those two, I’m having a hard time finding anyone on the Lakers that I want to roster. Kyle Kuzma would probably be the next target on my list, as he has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last four games.
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,200 | $7,000 | $12,400 | 31.9 | 35.0 | 0.91 | 19.3% | 7 | -2.98 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,000 | $4,800 | $10,400 | 23.3 | 32.1 | 0.72 | 15.4% | 12 | -1.13 |
| Brandon Ingram | $5,600 | $5,400 | $10,000 | 24.9 | 31.3 | 0.80 | 19.8% | 12 | 0.19 |
| Larry Nance | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 24.2 | 23.1 | 1.05 | 15.0% | 10 | -0.53 |
| Brook Lopez | $5,400 | $5,500 | $9,900 | 25.4 | 23.8 | 1.07 | 20.9% | 3 | 1.37 |
| Jordan Clarkson | $3,900 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 20.1 | 19.4 | 1.04 | 29.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Kuzma | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 22.3 | 27.6 | 0.81 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Julius Randle | $4,800 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 21.6 | 19.4 | 1.11 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A |