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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-15 02:30:40

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Washington Wizards
charlottenba Vegas Total 212.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread 0.0 Vegas Spread 0.0
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 106.0
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 0.2
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 5 9 26 20 DvP 16 7 23 13 17
DRPM -0.50 -1.35 1.39 1.13 1.68 DRPM -0.48 0.28 1.64 0.25 1.93

Charlotte Hornets

Welcome to a Wednesday edition of the Grind Down. As always, thanks for reading. If there is anything that you’d like to see added, feel free to leave a comment below.

The Hornets have lost two games in a row, but are 14-11 overall and are currently tied for third in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight they head to Washington to take on a Wizards’ team that has been a disappointment this season. This is an exploitable matchup for fantasy production, as the Wizards are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets have an implied total of 106 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 1.7 points above their season average. Potentially the best part of this game is that the spread is a pick ‘em, so we can expect players to see their usual allotment of minutes.

Kemba Walker is averaging 4.5 more fantasy points per game at home than he is on the road, but he draws a decent matchup against John Wall, who has a negative DRPM (Defensive Real Plus/Minus) on the season. In Walker’s last meeting against the Wizards, he put up 37.5 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. Point guard is deep enough that I wouldn’t consider Walker an elite cash game option, but he’s certainly worth a look in tournaments. Nicolas Batum has also been better at home this season, although his splits aren’t as drastic as Walker’s. Batum is typically a shooting guard that gets overlooked and I expect that to be the case tonight. The Wizards may be ranked fifth against shooting guards this season, but Bradley Beal is a below-average defender. Marvin Williams has played 30 and 28 minutes in his last two games and makes for a viable punt play at power forward. However, this is not a night where we are starved for value, as there are four or five elite value plays in the Cavaliers/Grizzlies game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,400 $7,200 $12,000 1.09 33.1 -3.2 36.1 -10.4 30.8% -2.5% 11 -0.50
Nicolas Batum $6,800 $6,900 $10,700 0.90 34.4 -2.4 30.8 -3.4 21.6% 1.5% 5 -1.35
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,700 $4,300 $8,000 0.77 29.2 -7.9 22.4 -3.5 14.6% 1.8% 9 1.39
Marvin Williams $4,300 $4,400 $8,200 0.73 27.3 -1.0 19.8 -2.3 17.3% -0.8% 26 1.13
Cody Zeller $4,700 $4,300 $7,700 0.87 25.2 0.3 21.9 1.7 16.7% 1.3% 20 1.68
Frank Kaminsky $4,300 $4,000 $7,300 0.81 26.0 -0.8 20.9 -1.8 21.1% 0.7% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games, but are still five games below .500 overall. They draw a tough matchup on paper against the Hornets, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. Vegas doesn’t seem overly concerned about the Hornets’ defense though, as the Wizards have an implied total of 106 points. Washington’s team total is the sixth highest in the slate and 2.1 points above their season average. As I mentioned above, the biggest advantage for this game is the fact that the spread is set as a pick ‘em. Games that are close and high scoring are typically the best game environments for fantasy production.

John Wall has scored at least 45 fantasy points in six of his last seven games and draws an exploitable matchup against Kemba Walker, who has a DRPM of -0.48 on the season. In his last two meetings against the Hornets, Wall has scored 47.2 and 49.8 fantasy points. His price has come up across the industry, but we can afford to spend up on a few different players tonight with all of the value available on Cleveland. Bradley Beal continues to grade out as a top point-per-dollar play at shooting guard thanks to his elite minute upside and his true usage rate of 26.2%. My main pause here is his matchup against Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who are both above-average wing defenders. Markieff Morris is averaging close to 35 minutes in his last three games and his production has been trending in the right direction. I still don’t love his floor for cash games, but I will certainly have some exposure to him in tournaments. Marcin Gortat is an intriguing pivot off of Joel Embiid at center, but do we really want to take a low ceiling player over Embiid?

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,700 $8,600 $13,400 1.23 36.2 2.0 44.4 -0.9 35.5% -0.7% 16 -0.48
Bradley Beal $6,900 $6,800 $11,000 0.90 34.9 1.2 31.5 2.4 26.2% -0.4% 7 0.28
Otto Porter $5,500 $5,700 $9,900 0.82 34.5 0.8 28.5 -10.7 15.1% -3.2% 23 1.64
Markieff Morris $5,000 $5,400 $8,800 0.74 32.1 2.8 23.9 2.6 19.9% -1.0% 13 0.25
Marcin Gortat $6,000 $6,000 $9,900 0.83 35.2 -1.0 29.3 -6.8 13.6% -1.8% 17 1.93

Elite Plays – John Wall

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Miami Heat
indiananba Vegas Total 205.0 miaminba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- -2.6 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Wayne Ellington Rodney McGruder Josh McRoberts Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 4 9 20 10 27 DvP 19 23 18 21 14
DRPM -2.08 -1.32 -1.06 0.34 0.94 DRPM 0.23 -1.39 -0.63 0.74 1.66

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule this season. They play at an above-average pace, they are ranked 12th in points scored per game, and they own a bottom ten defense. They draw a pace-down matchup tonight against the Heat in Miami. Even though the Heat have struggled from a defensive efficiency standpoint since losing Justise Winslow, they are still ranked seventh in points allowed per game and eighth in fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers have an implied total of only 102 points, which is the ninth lowest in the slate. Indiana also has a projected point differential of -3.2, which is the fifth worst on the board.

Rodney Stuckey left Monday’s game with a knee injury, but is expected to play tonight. With Monta Ellis already ruled out, Stuckey and C.J. Miles should both be in line for bigger roles in this offense. The rest of the Pacers are better GPP darts than cash game options. In theory, Jeff Teague should see a small usage boost with Ellis out, but point guard is such a deep position that it’s hard to make room for him. Paul George is averaging 37.8 fantasy points over his last three games and is still slightly underpriced on DraftKings at $7,900. We have seen centers have success against the Heat this season, even though Hassan Whiteside grades out as an excellent defender. Myles Turner is certainly worth a look in tournaments on a night where his ownership should be below 10%.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $6,800 $6,400 $10,400 1.01 31.7 0.2 32.1 -4.9 26.0% -5.0% 4 -2.08
Glenn Robinson $4,400 $3,900 $6,700 0.62 18.9 -0.6 11.8 0.1 13.5% -7.2% 9 -1.32
Paul George $8,300 $7,900 $12,700 1.03 35.3 2.0 36.5 1.3 26.6% 1.2% 20 -1.06
Thaddeus Young $4,900 $5,000 $9,700 0.76 29.8 -0.2 22.7 1.5 16.5% -0.4% 10 0.34
Myles Turner $6,200 $6,000 $10,600 1.04 28.9 3.7 30.2 3.8 19.5% -1.9% 27 0.94
Rodney Stuckey $3,900 $3,900 $7,400 0.72 21.1 4.2 15.2 4.5 21.7% -2.6% 9 N/A
C.J. Miles $4,600 $4,000 $8,200 0.87 21.4 -0.9 18.6 0.2 19.1% -3.2% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles, Jeff Teague, Paul George, Myles Turner

Miami Heat

The Heat have lost seven of their last ten games and are now nine games below .500 overall. They have not played well collectively and the staggering number of injuries to their backcourt hasn’t helped. They are finally starting to get healthy though, as Josh Richardson and James Johnson are back in the lineup. It sounds like Justise Winslow is also close to returning, which will help stabilize their play on defense. Miami draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential this season. The Heat have an implied total of 103 points, which is the ninth highest in the slate and 5.6 points above their season average.

As I mention in my Ultimate Guide to Beating NBA DFS, I try to avoid targeting players in situations where their salary is inflated due to a recent hot streak that isn’t expected to continue. We can make that case for Dragic, as the Heat no longer need him to play 35-38 minutes a game now that Josh Richardson is back. While I don’t mind his matchup against the Pacers, I don’t want to pay a premium for Dragic in a ten game slate. Hassan Whiteside draws a fairly difficult matchup against Myles Turner, who has a DRPM of 1.66 on the season. Whiteside is matchup-proof though, and now that DeMarcus Cousins has been ruled out, Whiteside is certainly worth a look in all formats. Tyler Johnson carries some value as a deep GPP option, but I’m a little worried about his minute upside moving forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,400 $7,300 $11,100 0.99 33.4 -0.2 33.0 2.6 29.9% 4.4% 19 0.23
Wayne Ellington $4,600 $4,500 $7,200 0.64 32.8 -2.5 21.1 -2.8 17.3% -0.5% 23 -1.39
Rodney McGruder $3,900 $3,500 $7,100 0.54 25.4 5.2 13.7 0.0 13.1% -2.5% 18 -0.63
Josh McRoberts $4,000 $3,700 $7,000 0.77 17.7 2.3 13.7 4.7 20.5% 3.6% 21 0.74
Hassan Whiteside $8,700 $8,300 $13,900 1.20 33.3 -1.8 39.9 -6.6 22.5% 1.3% 14 1.66
Tyler Johnson $5,300 $5,200 $7,900 0.82 30.8 3.0 25.2 -1.8 21.5% 1.1% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Philadelphia 76ers
torontonba Vegas Total 207.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread -8.5 Vegas Spread 8.5
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 99.5
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- -1.7
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 17 15 26 13 22 DvP 14 1 9 16 11
DRPM -0.93 0.19 3.10 0.12 1.49 DRPM 0.15 -1.86 0.33 1.27 0.11

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have one of the most efficient offenses in the entire NBA. Despite being ranked 23rd in pace of play, they are averaging 111.5 points per game. That mark is good enough for the third highest in the league. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Raptors come into the game as 8.5-point favorites with an implied total of 108 points. Even though the team total is below their season average, it is still the fifth best in the slate. The fact that this game is being played in Philadelphia helps, as the chances of a blowout are smaller than they would be if the game was in Toronto. Speaking of Toronto, how great was Drake’s Doris Burke sweatshirt?

We continue to hear Dwayne Casey say that he eventually wants to bring Kyle Lowry minutes down, but until it happens, I’m not putting any stock into it. He is averaging 37.2 minutes per game on the season, which is second only to Anthony Davis. Lowry draws a tremendous matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 17th against point guards this season. He is a borderline elite play on DraftKings at a price of only $8,200. DeMar DeRozan production has dipped a little since his hot start, but he continues to have one of the highest floors of any player in the NBA. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. The only concern here is that I expect the Sixers to put Robert Covington on him, who has an elite DRPM of 3.10 this season. DeMarre Carroll grades out as a top value play tonight. He is averaging 31.1 minutes and 24.2 fantasy points in his last three games. Jonas Valanciunas always has some GPP appeal, but if I’m targeting a center in this game, it will be Joel Embiid.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,700 $8,200 $12,100 1.04 37.2 -1.1 38.7 2.4 27.0% -0.2% 17 -0.93
DeMar DeRozan $8,400 $8,000 $13,000 1.12 35.8 -0.4 40.3 -4.9 34.3% -1.5% 15 0.19
DeMarre Carroll $4,300 $4,600 $8,500 0.71 26.7 4.4 19.1 5.1 15.5% 0.3% 26 3.10
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 $7,200 0.66 18.9 -4.9 12.5 -4.9 12.6% -2.5% 13 0.12
Jonas Valanciunas $5,300 $5,600 $9,100 0.93 27.6 -2.3 25.6 0.2 18.7% 3.1% 22 1.49
Patrick Patterson $4,300 $4,000 $7,600 0.67 28.8 -0.2 19.2 -1.9 12.9% 0.2% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (DK), DeMarre Carroll

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD), DeMar DeRozan

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have slowed their pace of play down a bit recently, which has helped improve their numbers on the defensive end of the floor. Unfortunately, it doesn’t really help their offense, as they are still averaging the fifth fewest points per game this season. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Even though the Sixers implied total of 99.5 points seems low, it is actually 1.9 points above their season average. Nerlens Noel made his season debut on Sunday, but will not play in tonight’s game against Toronto.

Sergio Rodriguez missed Sunday’s game with an illness, but is expected to be back in the starting lineup tonight. While he has played well in the absence of Jerryd Bayless, T.J. McConnell may have earned some extra minutes off the bench after his triple-double against the Pistons. In a ten game slate, we can avoid both Rodriguez and McConnell. Ersan Ilyasova has really played well in the last couple of weeks, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in five straight games and averaging close to 35 fantasy points during that stretch. Unfortunately, his price is high enough that he becomes an easy fade against a tough Raptors’ frontcourt. Joel Embiid has a true usage rate of 35.6%, which is the fourth highest in the NBA and the second highest for a center. Now that he is playing up to 28 minutes a night, it’s hard to fade him in any matchup. He is averaging an elite FP/min of 1.37.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Sergio Rodriguez $5,000 $5,000 $7,800 0.81 27.4 -0.7 22.2 -1.4 23.6% 1.0% 14 0.15
Gerald Henderson $3,500 $3,400 $7,900 0.66 24.4 -3.6 16.0 -6.9 17.7% -3.0% 1 -1.86
Robert Covington $4,700 $4,700 $7,600 0.72 28.0 4.6 20.3 4.4 16.9% -1.2% 9 0.33
Ersan Ilyasova $5,600 $6,000 $8,800 0.87 26.6 8.3 23.0 16.2 20.9% 4.1% 16 1.27
Joel Embiid $7,000 $7,400 $10,300 1.37 23.6 3.5 32.4 4.0 35.6% -2.8% 11 0.11
Jahlil Okafor $5,000 $5,000 $8,600 0.90 22.3 4.2 20.1 7.2 23.4% 0.9% 11 N/A
T.J. McConnell $3,900 $4,100 $6,900 0.77 19.2 7.7 14.7 10.3 18.0% 2.2% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – NONE

Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Orlando Magic
laclippersnba Vegas Total 207.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread -9.5 Vegas Spread 9.5
Team Total 108.5 Team Total 99.0
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Wesley Johnson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 13 12 11 24 DvP 17 1 5 1 8
DRPM -2.12 -1.66 -0.51 0.57 1.02 DRPM 3.17 -1.12 1.19 2.21 2.67

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers haven’t been as sharp as they were earlier in the season, losing five of their last ten games. With that said, they still have the third best record in the Western Conference standings at 18-7. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on a Magic team that has been tough to get a read on this season. This will be a pace-down game for Los Angeles, but we generally aren’t too concerned about the matchup when it comes to the Clippers. Instead, we are more worried about the spread, as they have blown a number of teams out this season. Tonight’s game features a spread of 9.5 points, so a blowout could certainly come into play here.

Chris Paul should dominate D.J. Augustin to start the game. If I had a little brother, I imagine this is what it would look like if we went one-on-one in the backyard – straight domination. Augustin has one of the worst DRPM’s of any point guard at -2.12 this season. The issue with Paul is always the minutes. In a game where the Clippers are favored by 9.5 points, it’s hard to project him for more than 30-32 minutes tonight. J.J. Redick returns to Orlando to take on a team that drafted him if you are into narratives. While I have no issues with Redick, there is another shooting guard that is an absolute stone-cold lock tonight (hint: he plays for Cleveland and shares the last name of an all-time great running back). Blake Griffin is still too cheap on DraftKings at $8,500. While Serge Ibaka is an above-average defender, the Clippers do a great job of getting Griffin open and letting the offense run through him. With the news that Demarcus Cousins is out, Paul and Griffin become more intriguing, as we are going to have to spend up somewhere tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $9,600 $8,700 $14,100 1.31 31.6 1.2 41.5 5.6 28.2% 0.6% 19 -2.12
J.J. Redick $4,200 $4,400 $8,800 0.71 27.0 0.8 19.3 -5.6 21.1% -3.5% 13 -1.66
Wesley Johnson $3,500 $3,000 $6,800 0.72 12.6 2.5 9.0 2.7 13.1% 2.3% 12 -0.51
Blake Griffin $9,100 $8,500 $13,800 1.20 33.2 2.3 40.0 -5.9 29.6% 6.0% 11 0.57
DeAndre Jordan $7,000 $6,600 $11,900 0.96 31.4 -2.1 30.2 1.1 13.9% 0.5% 24 1.02
Jamal Crawford $4,100 $4,200 $7,900 0.71 25.7 2.4 18.3 6.4 22.6% 2.8% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin (DK)

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin (FD)

Orlando Magic

The Magic are playing their second game in as many nights, after beating the Hawks in Atlanta in what may have been the most surprising shootout of the season. The two teams combined to score 151 points in regulation. Orlando has a quick turnaround tonight, as they now have to host a very talented Clippers’ team. The Magic are sizable underdogs here and the matchup is far from ideal. On the season, the Clippers are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. Orlando has an implied total of only 99 points, which is the sixth lowest in the slate.

The main situation to monitor here is the status of Nikola Vucevic. He has missed each of the last two games with a back injury. If he is unable to suit up again tonight, we can give a nice boost to both Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo. In Vucevic’s absence the last two games, Ibaka and Biyombo have averaged 37 and 27 fantasy points per game, respectively. Aaron Gordon would also see a boost with Vucevic out, but he’s one of the most tilting players in all of daily fantasy basketball. Elfrid Payton is coming off of a 26-point, 14-assist game against the Hawks, but I’m never a fan of targeting point guards against the Clippers. Chris Paul has a DRPM of 3.17 this season, which is the best of any point guard in the NBA. Evan Fournier draws the best matchup of the five starters, but again, I’m looking elsewhere at shooting guard (hint: he doesn’t ever wear a shirt).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $3,900 $3,900 $7,400 0.74 20.1 -0.8 14.9 0.8 22.9% -2.6% 17 3.17
Evan Fournier $5,500 $5,800 $9,900 0.77 33.3 -1.4 25.7 5.7 23.9% 0.1% 1 -1.12
Aaron Gordon $4,100 $4,400 $8,600 0.74 25.6 -2.4 19.1 0.2 19.7% -2.5% 5 2.62
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $6,400 $9,600 0.91 30.5 1.8 27.8 6.0 20.3% 1.3% 1 2.21
Bismack Biyombo $4,400 $5,200 $7,800 0.74 26.0 1.5 19.3 2.4 12.9% 1.5% 8 2.67
Elfrid Payton $5,100 $4,800 $8,700 0.88 29.0 -0.3 25.5 3.2 24.0% 6.0% 17 N/A
Nikola Vucevic $6,700 $5,900 $9,900 1.13 27.4 -4.7 31.1 -14.3 24.5% -2.0% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo

Los Angeles Lakers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Brooklyn Nets
lalakersnba Vegas Total 228.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 228.5
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 114.8 Team Total 113.8
Pace +/- 5.2 Pace +/- 2.7
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 30 29 30 29 29 DvP 24 28 29 27 29
DRPM -0.38 -2.53 -2.00 1.89 -0.70 DRPM -1.20 -1.61 0.22 -0.20 -0.50

Los Angeles Lakers

On paper, this game has the makings of fantasy gold. Both of these teams are ranked inside the top five in pace of play and they are both ranked in the bottom five in points allowed per game. To make it even more appealing, the spread is set at a single point. Basically, we can expect a close, high-scoring game between two of the worst defenses in the league. The Lakers have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the highest in the slate and a whopping 10.1 points above their season average. Even though the Lakers have a deep and inconsistent rotation, we should be able to find some viable fantasy options in this matchup.

Before we get into the player breakdown, I want to point out that the Lakers are a very tilting team to target in DFS. They basically play nine or ten guys every game and most nights all of those players see at least 15 minutes. In general, I try to avoid teams like this when it’s hard to predict where the production is going to come from on a nightly basis. With that said, I can’t pass up a matchup against the Nets. I may not have any Lakers’ players in cash games, but I will be making a number of game stacks with players from both teams. Julius Randle is my favorite player overall, as he is averaging over 30 minutes per game in his last three contests. Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, Luol Deng, and Larry Nance will all make some of my tournaments lineups.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $6,000 $5,700 $9,600 1.03 25.6 -7.4 26.3 -9.9 30.9% 2.8% 30 -0.38
Nick Young $3,900 $3,900 $7,700 0.75 24.8 -1.5 18.6 -2.7 19.1% 2.0% 29 -2.53
Luol Deng $4,200 $4,000 $7,500 0.69 25.2 6.4 17.3 10.8 15.3% 0.1% 30 -2.00
Julius Randle $6,400 $5,900 $10,100 0.98 28.3 3.5 27.6 -2.9 23.2% -2.4% 29 1.89
Timofey Mozgov $3,500 $3,200 $8,300 0.74 21.1 0.5 15.5 -1.4 16.6% -0.1% 29 -0.70
Jordan Clarkson $4,900 $5,000 $9,600 0.77 29.0 0.2 22.3 -0.4 24.2% 0.4% 30 N/A
Lou Williams $6,200 $6,500 $9,400 1.10 25.1 3.6 27.6 6.2 30.9% 1.0% 29 N/A
Larry Nance $3,900 $3,800 $7,700 0.83 21.8 -2.2 18.2 -3.6 13.4% 2.1% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Julius Randle (DK)

Secondary Plays – Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, Larry Nance

Brooklyn Nets

As strange as it sounds, these two teams are basically mirror images of each other. The Nets play at a fast pace and often forget to play defense. They also have a deep rotation and none of their players average more than 30 minutes per game on the season. While that’s typically a concern, we have to like the matchup against a Lakers’ team that is ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season. The Nets have an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 7.3 points above their season average. If you combine both teams projected point differentials, they are expected to score more than 17 points above their season averages.

Jeremy Lin played well in his first game back from injury, but only saw 20 minutes off the bench. We either need his price to come down or his minutes to go up before targeting him again in DFS. Sean Kilpatrick didn’t play great with Lin back in the lineup and should, in theory, see a decreased usage rate moving forward. This may be the last time to play Kilpatrick before Lin really cuts into his production. Bojan Bogdanovic is a solid mid-range small forward tonight. He should see minutes in the upper 20s against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked 29th against the position. I slightly prefer DeMarre Carroll in cash games, but Bogdanovic has a higher ceiling for tournaments. Trevor Booker is the only Nets’ player to average more than 30 minutes in the last three games. If he sees 30 minutes tonight, he should easily reach value against a soft Lakers’ frontcourt. Brook Lopez grades out as an elite play on DraftKings at a price of $6,800. He doesn’t have elite minute upside, but he is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $6,700 $5,600 $9,300 1.16 25.8 -5.7 29.9 -2.8 28.7% -0.9% 24 -1.20
Sean Kilpatrick $5,300 $5,100 $8,600 0.88 27.7 1.4 24.3 -5.8 26.2% -6.9% 28 -1.61
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,400 $4,400 $7,900 0.74 27.7 -0.1 20.5 0.5 20.9% -2.4% 29 0.22
Trevor Booker $5,900 $5,900 $8,500 0.98 28.3 3.7 27.7 -0.6 17.2% 0.8% 27 -0.20
Brook Lopez $7,500 $6,800 $10,900 1.14 28.3 1.2 32.3 2.2 28.0% -0.8% 29 -0.50

Elite Plays – Trevor Booker, Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick, Bojan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez (FD)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious