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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-31 22:34:09

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Los Angeles Clippers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Charlotte Hornets
laclippersnba Vegas Total 201.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 98.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Paul Pierce DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 5 22 7 27 17 Opp. Season 8 11 16 6 16
Opp. Last 7 12 24 8 13 9 Opp. Last 7 8 12 18 12 13

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 19-13 — Road: 9-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers have won six of their last ten games, but are going to be without Blake Griffin for the next couple of weeks. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Clippers are 2.5-point favorites with a team total of 102 points.

The Hornets have been pretty good defensively this season. They are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. Even though the matchup isn’t great on paper, the absence of Blake Griffin really opens the door for the Clippers from a fantasy perspective.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul

Paul has played well over his last five games, averaging 43.3 fantasy points. He had a subpar outing against the Wizards on Monday night, but he only played 27 minutes in a blowout. His minutes should be back in the mid to upper-30’s tonight against the Hornets.

FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $9,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 26.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 43.3

DeAndre Jordan

Center is tough tonight because there are so many great options in the slate. Jordan is one of the top plays at the position though. In 21 games without Blake Griffin, Jordan has averaged 13.1 points and 17.3 rebounds per game. He should feast against this Hornets’ frontcourt.

FD — $7,600 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.5 | Last Five Games: 10.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 31.9

Secondary Plays

J.J. Redick

Redick is a decent punt play on FanDuel tonight. His price is cheap and his usage rate should go up with Blake Griffin out. He is now the Clippers’ second best option offensively, at least in the starting lineup.

FD — $4,600 — SG
DK — $5,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 19.0
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 22.1

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 17-13 — Home: 13-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hornets have lost five of their last ten games, but they have played well at home this season with a 13-5 record. Tonight they host the Clippers in what should be an average-paced game. The Hornets are projected to score 99.5 points, which is 2.5 points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Clippers have been mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between 11th and 15th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Nicolas Batum and Al Jefferson are both listed as questionable tonight, while Jeremy Lin and Spencer Hawes have already been ruled out.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

Walker isn’t really on my radar tonight, but he is worth mentioning because he is playing at home. He has great home splits throughout his career and he should see a small boost with Jeremy Lin out. If Nicolas Batum is also ruled out, Walker could be considered a borderline elite play.

FD — $8,400 — PG
DK — $7,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 19.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 40.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 34.8

Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Orlando Magic
brooklynnba Vegas Total 200.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 97.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 13 13 13 12 8 Opp. Season 27 25 20 9 28
Opp. Last 7 6 25 9 14 2 Opp. Last 7 17 19 6 19 30

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 9-22 — Road: 3-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and have a paltry road record of 3-12 on the season. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on a Magic team that has really outperformed expectations. The Nets have an implied team total of only 96.3 points, which is the second lowest on the schedule.

The Magic are better defensively than most people realize. On the season, they are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and tenth in defensive efficiency. The Nets would be in play on a smaller slate, but we don’t need to force any of their players into our lineups tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

Brook Lopez is cheap on DraftKings, but with so many options at center, I will be looking elsewhere. Young is on my radar on both sites though. Power forward is a thin position and he has played well recently, averaging 35.2 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $6,800 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 35.2

Orlando Magic

Record: 18-13 — Home: 11-6 — Last 10: 6-4

The Magic have won six of their last ten games to improve to 18-13 on the season. Don’t look now, but they are only a half game out of the three seed in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is projected to score 103.8 points tonight, which is 2.7 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Nets have not fared well defensively this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Elfrid Payton has been dealing with an injured ankle for a couple of weeks now. He is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to go, Victor Oladipo and Shabazz Napier would both see a nice boost.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic has been on fire recently, averaging 42 fantasy points in his last five games. His price has come up across the industry, but it’s justified given his increase in playing time. He draws one of the top matchups on the board, as the Nets have allowed the third most fantasy points to centers this season.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 42.0

Evan Fournier

Fournier was featured in the Grind Down on Monday night and he didn’t disappoint, finishing the game with 31 points. He is still flying under the radar, even though he is producing at a level similar to earlier in the season. It’s a great time to jump on the Fournier bandwagon before it gets too crowded.

FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 29.3

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

Harris is a serviceable small forward tonight on FanDuel. There are better options on DraftKings (namely his teammate Evan Fournier), but he is worth a look on FD. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 27.3 fantasy points in 36.1 minutes per contest.

FD — $6,400 — SF
DK — $6,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 12.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 27.3

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Washington Wizards Toronto Raptors
washingtonnba Vegas Total 202.5 torontonba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 100.50 Team Pace 95.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Kelly Oubre Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo
Opp. Season 2 17 5 13 18 Opp. Season 7 24 29 10 11
Opp. Last 7 3 8 11 5 22 Opp. Last 7 13 18 27 3 28

Washington Wizards

Record: 14-15 — Road: 7-7 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games and are close to getting back to .500 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight on the road against the Raptors though. Washington’s team total is set at only 98 points, which is 3.8 points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Raptors have been terrific defensively this season, ranking fourth in points allowed per game and fifth in fantasy points allowed per game. The Wizards will be short handed again tonight, as Bradley Beal, Nene Hilario, Gary Neal, and Drew Gooden are all expected to miss the game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

Wall has been playing at a high level recently, but his price has more than caught up with his production. He draws a fairly tough matchup against Kyle Lowry, who is a capable defender. Wall can be faded in cash games, but he is worth a look in tournaments.

FD — $10,000 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 37.8
FP/Game — Season: 40.5 | Last Five Games: 45.9

Marcin Gortat

Gortat comes into tonight’s game in excellent form, averaging 37.2 fantasy points per game in his last five. His minutes and usage rate are both up and he should see heavy minutes with Nene Hilario and Drew Gooden doubtful. Gortat will also get overlooked with all of the great options at center.

FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 35.7
FP/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 37.2

Toronto Raptors

Record: 19-13 — Home: 9-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are now 19-13 on the season. It’s crazy how competitive the Eastern Conference, as the Raptors are only two games ahead of the tenth place Pistons. The Raptors have a high team total of 104.5 points tonight against the Wizards.

The Wizards are one of the few teams in the NBA that are ranked in the bottom ten in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This is a favorable matchup for the Raptors and we should give their offense a sizable boost as a whole.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan is a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but he is worth a look tonight against the Wizards, who have really struggled to contain wing players this season. They are ranked 24th against shooting guards and 29th against small forwards. DeRozan is a safe play with a high floor in this matchup.

FD — $8,100 — SG
DK — $7,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 38.1

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry is coming off of a big game against the Bulls. His price is affordable tonight (especially on DraftKings), but he draws a fairly difficult matchup against John Wall. Lowry is worth a look in tournaments and possibly as a cash game option on DK.

FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $8,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 38.9 | Last Five Games: 36.9

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Los Angeles Lakers Boston Celtics
lalakersnba Vegas Total 205.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 98.70 Team Pace 101.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant “(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 7 24 21 20 Opp. Season 30 28 23 22 27
Opp. Last 7 2 2 17 24 27 Opp. Last 7 30 29 29 21 25

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 5-27 — Road: 3-18 — Last 10: 2-8

The Lakers have lost eight of their last ten games and are now 5-27 on the season. They are listed as 12.5-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics, but at least the pace of the game should be fast. The Lakers have an implied team total of 96.5 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board tonight.

The Celtics play at a quick pace, but have been one of the most efficient defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked third in that category and are ranked eighth in points allowed per game. You can play the narrative game with this being Kobe Bryant last game in Boston, but he is a GPP flier at best. The rest of the Lakers can be avoided in a potential blowout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Boston Celtics

Record: 18-13 — Home: 9-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are now 18-13 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Lakers at home. Boston is projected to score 109 points, which is the second highest team total on the board tonight.

The Lakers have been downright awful defensively this season. They are ranked 29th or 30th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The matchup is obviously a favorable one, but there is the concern of a potential blowout. Not only does this game feature a large spread, but the Celtics have been involved in quite a few blowouts this season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Thomas has played well recently, but with Marcus Smart back in action, his minutes are going to go down. Thomas is priced as if he is playing 34-35 minutes per game, but he’ll likely see 30-32 moving forward. That caps his upside and makes him more of a secondary play tonight.

FD — $8,100 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.3 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 34.8

Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Chicago Bulls
indiananba Vegas Total 200.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 25 6 22 14 24 Opp. Season 4 23 4 19 15
Opp. Last 7 21 7 14 23 14 Opp. Last 7 16 10 3 29 15

Indiana Pacers

Record: 18-12 — Road: 7-8 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games, but they have not played well on the road. They are only 7-8 away from home this season. The Pacers are 3-point underdogs tonight against the Bulls in Chicago. Indiana is projected to score 98.8 points, which is considerably lower than their average points per game this season.

The Bulls have been one of the most efficient teams defensively this season. They play at a quick pace though, which is why they are ranked 12th in points allowed per game. Jordan Hill will not play tonight for the Pacers. C.J. Miles status is also in doubt, as he is listed as questionable. This is a good spot to fade the Pacers altogether. Paul George could be worth a look in tournaments, but his recent play has been less than inspiring.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Chicago Bulls

Record: 17-12 — Home: 12-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Bulls have won six of their last ten games and have an impressive 12-5 record at home. They draw fairly tough matchup tonight against the Pacers. Chicago is projected to score 101.8 points, which is right around the average of the 20 teams in action tonight.

The Pacers have been excellent on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Joakim Noah remains out, which solidified the minutes for Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

For whatever reason, the pricing algorithms on FanDuel and DraftKings treat the Bulls very differently. Gasol and Jimmy Butler are much cheaper on DK, while Taj Gibson is much cheaper on FD. This makes each player site-specific plays. Gasol deserves consideration on DK at a price of only $7,800. He has been terrific recently, averaging over 40 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $8,900 — PF
DK — $7,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 41.2

Jimmy Butler

Butler is also in play on DraftKings at a bargain price of $7,400. I’d consider him a borderline elite play, but DeMar DeRozan and Will Barton are comparable plays at similar price points.

FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $7,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 18.3
Min/Game — Season: 37.6 | Last Five Games: 37.5
FP/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 31.6

Taj Gibson

Gibson on the other hand, is a much better play on FanDuel. With Joakim Noah out, his minutes are secure. He has played at least 33 minutes in each of the last four games. He is a safe cash game option with decent upside against the Pacers.

FD — $4,800 — PF
DK — $5,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.2 | Last Five Games: 10.5
Min/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 23.5

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious