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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday: December 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-08 03:05:33

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Orlando Magic
bostonnba Vegas Total 198.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 100.5 Team Total 98.0
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 15 6 9 10 27 2016-17 7 7 29 19 29

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and sit at 12-9 overall. They are not playing in the front or tail end of a back-to-back, but they will be without their best player in Isaiah Thomas. He has already been ruled out with a groin injury and Marcus Smart was seen wearing a starter’s jersey in shoot-around this morning. If Thomas would have been active, the Celtics would have been an easy fade in DFS. Their matchup against the Magic is a difficult one, as Orlando is ranked third in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. However, Thomas being out opens up minutes and usage for a number of players in the Celtics’ lineup. Even though the Celtics have a low implied total, we can heavily target them in DFS tonight.

Assuming Marcus Smart draws the start at point guard, he makes for an excellent value play on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Rosters. He should immediately see a minutes boost into the 30s and he should see a nice usage bump as well. He will likely end up being one of the most popular plays in the slate, but for good reason. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder may have to pick up their scoring a bit on the wing. Using the “CourtIQ” tool here on RotoGrinders, we can see that both players see a sizable usage boost (Bradley – 4.6%, Crowder – 6.8%) when Thomas is not on the floor. I typically don’t like to stack offenses against stout defensive teams, but you can use two or even three Celtics tonight with Thomas out. Al Horford may also see a small usage boost, as the Celtics may opt to run more of their offense through the post. The Magic have had a difficult time defending centers this season, but Bismack Biyombo is known as one of the best low-post defenders in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Marcus Smart $4,700 $4,500 $8,100 0.72 30.5 -3.0 21.9 -6.7 19.9% -2.9% 15
Avery Bradley $6,600 $6,300 $10,900 0.89 35.7 -1.6 31.7 0.8 22.0% -1.5% 6
Jae Crowder $5,200 $5,600 $8,900 0.82 29.6 5.7 24.4 -1.8 17.6% -2.9% 9
Amir Johnson $3,500 $3,100 $7,700 0.78 19.5 -7.9 15.1 -4.4 14.6% -0.8% 10
Al Horford $7,700 $6,700 $11,000 1.09 32.7 2.0 35.8 4.3 22.0% 4.3% 27
Terry Rozier $4,100 $3,000 $6,000 0.77 18.1 -4.8 13.9 -3.0 16.7% 5.1% 15
Jonas Jerebko $3,500 $3,000 $6,800 0.67 17.4 0.8 11.6 2.7 12.3% 2.1% 10

Elite Plays – Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder

Secondary Plays – Al Horford

Orlando Magic

The Magic are playing their second game in as many nights, after beating the Wizards in Washington on Tuesday. They have now won three games in a row and are only two games below .500 overall. They draw a slightly favorable matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked 17th in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebounding differential this season. Orlando has an implied total of 98.0 points, which is 4.8 points above their season average. The biggest issue with the Magic is that Frank Vogel has had one of the most inconsistent rotations of any coach in the NBA. If we can’t predict minutes, it becomes incredibly difficult to predict fantasy production night in and night out.

Elfrid Payton finally broke out of his slump with a 49.7 fantasy point outing last night. The problem is that he is still coming off the bench and that he could just as easily go back to playing minutes in the low to mid 20s tonight. Without knowing Vogel’s plan at point guard (I’m not sure he even knows), I will continue to avoid both Payton and D.J. Augustin. Evan Fournier has been the most consistent fantasy performer on the Magic, but he’ll draw the elite defense of Avery Bradley. There are a handful of defensive players that I avoid taking offensive players against and Bradley is near the top of the list. The best way to attack the Celtics is with opposing bigs, as they are ranked 27th in rebounding differential, 19th against power forwards, and 29th against centers. I’m perfectly content fading Serge Ibaka every time he takes the floor. It’s nothing personal, but if I lose because he has a big night, so be it. Bismack Biyombo has played at least 30 minutes in seven straight games and is my favorite target from Orlando. He is fairly priced on both FanDuel ($4,300) and DraftKings ($4,600). Nikola Vucevic is still playing minutes in the upper 20s and could be worth a look in tournaments on DraftKings ($6,100).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
D.J. Augustin $3,900 $3,800 $7,400 0.74 20.0 2.0 14.8 0.6 23.8% -4.5% 7
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,600 $9,900 0.76 33.9 -1.1 25.8 -1.8 24.0% -2.2% 7
Aaron Gordon $4,000 $4,200 $8,600 0.75 25.8 -3.1 19.4 -1.4 20.0% 0.3% 29
Serge Ibaka $6,500 $6,400 $9,900 0.91 30.4 0.0 27.8 6.5 20.2% -1.4% 19
Bismack Biyombo $4,300 $4,600 $7,800 0.74 25.5 6.5 18.8 2.5 12.6% -2.4% 29
Elfrid Payton $5,100 $4,400 $8,700 0.83 28.8 -3.6 24.0 -9.2 23.5% -4.7% 7
Nikola Vucevic $7,100 $6,100 $10,600 1.15 27.7 0.9 31.9 2.5 24.6% -1.7% 29

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic (DK GPP)

Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Charlotte Hornets
detroitnba Vegas Total 203.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 99.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- -2.7
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 22 9 21 14 20 2016-17 25 7 2 7 13

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons picked up another win last night and are now 12-11 on the season. They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. This is far from an ideal matchup, as the Hornets are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. Vegas seems to agree with me here, as the Pistons have a low implied total of 99 points, which is the fifth lowest in the slate. This game lacks fantasy appeal as a whole, as both teams play at a relatively slow pace and both are stout defensively.

Reggie Jackson only played 18 minutes in his second game back from injury. I originally thought that this could be a spot for the Pistons to rest him in the second half of a back-to-back, but after only playing 18 minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the lineup again tonight. If the Pistons do decide to rest Jackson, Ish Smith would become a viable play in all formats. The Hornets have two good wing defenders in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, which makes Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris easy fades. Tobias Harris is still in play on FanDuel ($5,600) thanks to a slight mis-pricing. Andre Drummond is always an intriguing GPP play, but he seems to disappear for quarters at a time. I’d rather take a shot on Al Horford, who has a higher floor and a similar ceiling.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Reggie Jackson $7,000 $5,600 $9,900 0.97 22.9 0.0 22.2 0.0 34.4% 0.0% 22
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,700 $5,800 $8,300 0.76 33.1 0.2 25.2 8.0 20.9% 3.3% 9
Marcus Morris $5,000 $5,200 $8,100 0.74 32.1 1.9 23.8 4.8 20.4% -1.7% 21
Tobias Harris $5,600 $6,000 $9,300 0.79 33.1 1.0 26.1 1.5 21.8% -1.2% 14
Andre Drummond $7,800 $7,500 $12,600 1.19 29.7 3.1 35.3 3.1 22.7% -0.7% 20
Jon Leuer $4,600 $4,500 $7,100 0.81 26.9 -0.1 21.9 1.9 17.1% -1.9% 14
Ish Smith $5,500 $4,500 $7,600 0.84 29.4 0.5 24.8 6.9 23.1% -1.4% 22

Elite Plays – Tobias Harris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris (DK), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have surprisingly been better on the road (6-3) than they have been at home (6-6). I expect that to flip when all is said and done though, and they come into tonight’s game as 5.5-point favorites against the Pistons. This will be a pace-down game for Charlotte, as Detroit is ranked 25th in pace of play and second in points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied total of 104.5 points, which is slightly below the average of the 20 teams in action tonight. Marvin Williams is expected to return to the lineup tonight, which essentially ends the run for Frank Kaminsky as a viable cash game option.

If you look at the DvP chart above, you can see that the only position the Pistons have struggled with this season is point guard. Reggie Jackson should help fix some of those problems moving forward, but he is still playing limited minutes. Kemba Walker makes an excellent play in all formats tonight and he may get lost in the shuffle with all of the superstar options in this slate. On the season, he is averaging 4.6 more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road. I’m not particularly interested in either of the wings here and with Marvin Williams back, there are too many bodies splitting minutes at the four and five.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kemba Walker $8,200 $7,200 $12,000 1.12 33.5 1.4 37.5 -5.4 30.9% -0.2% 25
Nicolas Batum $7,000 $6,600 $10,700 0.91 34.7 3.3 31.6 7.8 21.5% 2.3% 7
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,300 $4,600 $8,200 0.76 30.9 -0.7 23.5 1.3 14.4% 2.1% 2
Marvin Williams $4,400 $4,000 $8,200 0.72 27.6 20.0 17.6% 7
Cody Zeller $4,600 $4,300 $7,700 0.90 24.7 5.0 22.1 -1.3 16.4% -5.7% 13
Frank Kaminsky $4,500 $4,500 $7,600 0.82 26.3 -0.9 21.5 -1.8 21.2% -4.0% 7

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (FD)

Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Brooklyn Nets
denvernba Vegas Total 223.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 223.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 113.8 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- 4.9 Pace +/- 2.5
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 30 28 27 29 30 2016-17 29 30 9 14 7

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and are now five games below .500 on the season. Luckily, they have a winnable game tonight against the Nets, who are a near perfect matchup in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked second in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. So basically, they push the pace (which creates more possessions) and they are terrible defensively. The Nuggets are listed as 4.5-point favorites with an implied total of 113.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 7.6 points above their season average.

As long as this game stays close (which it is expected to), it should be filled with fantasy goodness. If you look at the DvP chart above, you can see that the Nets are ranked in the bottom four in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor. The key is predicting where the Nuggets’ production will come from. Emmanuel Mudiay has seen a significant decrease in minutes recently, but I’m certainly tempted to use him in tournaments at his price point. Will Barton is head and shoulders above the rest of the Nuggets when it comes to cash game options. He is averaging 35.8 fantasy points in his last three games and should see minutes in the low to mid 30s. Danilo Gallinari hasn’t been as productive on a per-minute basis this season, but he is averaging 36.1 minutes per game. I like his chances to reach value in a dream spot against the Nets. Wilson Chandler has cooled off a bit, but should also see 30+ minutes in a near-perfect matchup. Kenneth Faried burned a lot of bridges the other night against the Sixers, but makes a nice buy-low candidate in tournaments tonight if Nikola Jokic is ruled out. Jusuf Nurkic is in the same boat as Faried.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Emmanuel Mudiay $5,200 $4,900 $9,100 0.78 30.7 -6.8 24.0 -9.2 26.0% -4.2% 30
Will Barton $6,000 $6,200 $8,700 0.83 30.1 4.2 25.1 10.7 22.8% 4.3% 28
Danilo Gallinari $6,000 $5,700 $10,900 0.73 36.1 -0.3 26.3 1.5 19.0% -1.2% 27
Kenneth Faried $5,300 $5,000 $8,600 1.02 23.5 -2.0 23.9 -7.2 17.0% 2.2% 29
Jusuf Nurkic $4,500 $4,300 $9,200 1.02 21.6 -2.4 22.1 0.0 22.9% -0.3% 30
Wilson Chandler $6,200 $6,300 $10,400 0.96 30.9 1.0 29.7 -2.1 24.2% -3.4% 27
Jameer Nelson $4,400 $4,800 $7,200 0.72 26.4 -1.4 19.0 1.4 19.5% -0.2% 30

Elite Plays – Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari

Secondary Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay (GPP), Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried (GPP), Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have lost nine of their last ten games and are starting to look like the team we expected them to be when the season began. While I’m not in love with their long-term prospects as a team, I’m a big fan of their matchup tonight against the Nuggets. On the season, Denver is ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Nets have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the eighth highest in the slate and 3.6 points above their season average. If you can nail the right plays from this game, you will have a big advantage over the rest of the field tonight.

We have a similar problem with the Nets as we do with the Nuggets. They are in a great spot overall, but there aren’t really any players that we can count on in cash games. Sean Kilpatrick is the closest thing we have to a reliable fantasy option in this lineup. His price is still affordable across the industry and he gets to square off against a defense that is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. Kilpatrick has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last seven games and has that high ceiling that we are looking for in tournaments. Bojan Bogdanovic has nice upside in this matchup, but his floor is always in question. I see him more as a tournament play tonight, but if you are down to one player left in your lineup at his price point, I certainly don’t mind Bogdanovic. Trevor Booker and Brook Lopez are both averaging over a fantasy point per minute, but they are both averaging less than 29 minutes per game. Both are secondary plays at their respective positions, although the $6,400 price on Lopez on DraftKings is enticing.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Isaiah Whitehead $3,700 $3,400 $6,000 0.61 22.4 3.9 13.7 -0.4 18.7% -1.1% 29
Sean Kilpatrick $5,700 $6,000 $8,600 0.93 27.5 3.1 25.6 1.8 27.5% -2.5% 30
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,400 $4,300 $7,900 0.75 27.7 1.5 20.7 2.5 21.4% 5.0% 9
Trevor Booker $5,900 $5,900 $8,500 1.01 27.8 1.3 28.2 0.3 17.0% 1.4% 14
Brook Lopez $7,400 $6,400 $10,900 1.13 28.1 1.0 31.8 2.7 28.4% -0.6% 7

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic, Trevor Booker, Brook Lopez

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Atlanta Hawks
miaminba Vegas Total 199.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 95.5 Team Total 104.0
Pace +/- 2.5 Pace +/- -2.6
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Wayne Ellington Rodney McGruder Josh McRoberts Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Jr. Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 28 24 21 8 2 2016-17 3 5 19 5 24

Miami Heat

The Heat are in a really tough spot tonight. They are playing their second game in as many nights, they are without five of their best players (injuries), and they have to play on the road against a stout Hawks’ defense. Atlanta is currently ranked 11th in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency, which helps explain why the Heat have such a low implied total of 95.5 points. When you compare that to the other teams in the slate, the Heat are tied with the Mavericks for the lowest on the board. Even though this is a tough spot for the Heat, there is still a lot of upside in targeting Miami in tournaments. They only had nine active players last night and two of them (Willie Reed and Udonis Haslem) barely saw the floor. Erik Spoelstra may not have a choice but to play his starters big minutes yet again.

If the Heat are going to keep this game close, they will need a big game from Goran Dragic, who has scored at least 39 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He also draws an elite matchup against Dennis Schroder and the Hawks, who are ranked 28th against point guards. Everyone is going to talk themselves out of Dragic, which makes him an excellent tournament play. Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Tyler Johnson, and Josh McRoberts will all see extended playing time tonight and you can mix and match any of these players in tournaments. Hassan Whiteside draws a difficult matchup against Dwight Howard, but we know the type of upside he possesses. I probably won’t be using any Heat players outside of Dragic in cash games, but there are plenty of viable tournament targets here.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Goran Dragic $7,000 $7,300 $11,100 0.96 32.9 2.6 31.6 5.3 29.1% 3.9% 28
Wayne Ellington $4,300 $4,300 $6,900 0.66 32.7 1.9 21.7 2.0 17.1% 0.6% 24
Rodney McGruder $3,800 $3,600 $6,000 0.54 23.8 9.5 12.9 4.0 13.2% -3.2% 21
Josh McRoberts $3,600 $3,300 $7,000 0.80 14.8 8.0 11.9 4.5 20.2% 0.9% 8
Hassan Whiteside $8,900 $9,200 $13,900 1.26 33.2 3.2 41.8 3.5 22.4% -2.4% 2
Tyler Johnson $5,200 $5,200 $7,900 0.84 29.8 0.8 25.2 3.5 21.3% 2.9% 28

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Josh McRoberts, Tyler Johnson

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are in a complete free-fall right now. They have lost seven games in a row and nine of their last ten. As little as two weeks ago, they were poised to have home-court advantage in the East. They will look to rebound tonight against the Heat, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but Vegas likes the Hawks against this short-handed ball club. Atlanta is favored by 8.5 points and they have an implied total of 104 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.

Even if this game stays close and even if the Hawks score as many points as they are projected to, I’m still not sure who we can target in daily fantasy basketball. Dennis Schroder is coming off of a nice three-game stretch, but he is still averaging less than 30 minutes per game this season. Kent Bazemore has played so poorly that the Hawks are moving Tim Hardaway into the starting lineup tonight. Assuming he plays minutes in the high 20s, he makes a nice punt option on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Thabo Sefolosha is a decent value at small forward, but playing him in a ten game slate is a little thin. He doesn’t really have the high ceiling that we are looking for in tournaments. Paul Millsap seems to be out of his recent slump and his price has yet to reflect it at $7,600 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings. The Heat have struggled against opposing centers this season, but Dwight Howard isn’t even in my top five when it comes to the best point-per-dollar plays at center tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Dennis Schroder $6,200 $6,100 $10,400 0.93 29.5 -1.9 27.3 5.8 29.5% 1.2% 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. $3,800 $3,400 $6,000 0.76 21.2 4.2 16.1 3.5 21.8% 0.0% 5
Thabo Sefolosha $4,100 $4,100 $6,700 0.77 24.6 -0.3 19.0 -2.8 14.1% -1.6% 19
Paul Millsap $7,600 $7,100 $12,900 1.03 32.8 6.2 33.8 6.2 24.4% -0.5% 5
Dwight Howard $7,200 $6,800 $12,500 1.13 28.4 -4.2 32.2 -12.4 20.3% -3.5% 24

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap, Dennis Schroder, Thabo Sefolosha, Tim Hardaway

Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Milwaukee Bucks
portlandnba Vegas Total 217.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- 0.2 Pace +/- 1.9
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 6 14 24 20 21 2016-17 12 23 17 30 23

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight, as they square off against the Bucks in Milwaukee. This should be an uptempo game, as both teams are ranked above the league average in pace of play. The Bucks present a mediocre matchup though, as they are ranked tenth in points allowed per game, seventh in defensive efficiency, and 11th in rebounding differential this season. The Blazers come into the game with an implied total of 108 points. While they do have the ninth highest total in the slate, it is actually 2.3 points below their season average.

This is an interesting matchup as the Blazers’ best two players just so happen to play the two positions that the Bucks are good at defending. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked sixth against point guards and 14th against shooting guards. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are fairly matchup-proof at this point, but neither stands out as elite plays at their respective positions. Point guard is always a stacked position and there are three elite shooting guard plays that come to mind before McCollum in this slate – James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Will Barton. Maurice Harkless hasn’t see a decline in minutes yet with Al-Farouq Aminu back, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his minutes dip to the high 20s instead of the low 30s.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Damian Lillard $9,800 $8,700 $13,000 1.18 35.6 -0.7 42.0 5.3 32.8% -1.1% 6
C.J. McCollum $7,400 $6,800 $11,000 0.97 34.3 -1.7 33.3 0.6 27.1% 0.8% 14
Maurice Harkless $5,200 $5,100 $7,800 0.74 31.1 0.0 23.0 5.4 16.3% 2.8% 24
Al-Farouq Aminu $4,400 $4,000 $8,100 0.77 25.1 -8.1 19.3 -5.7 15.9% -3.4% 20
Mason Plumlee $6,000 $5,600 $9,200 1.00 27.3 0.5 27.4 2.4 19.1% 0.8% 21
Allen Crabbe $3,800 $3,700 $7,300 0.56 28.0 -0.2 15.7 6.2 14.1% 4.7% 14
Evan Turner $4,600 $4,300 $8,100 0.77 25.0 2.7 19.2 7.8 19.3% -1.3% 24

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks draw one of the best matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball tonight. Anytime the Blazers are on the road and the spread is close, I love targeting the opposing offense. Portland is ranked eight in pace of play, 28th in points allowed per game, and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Bucks have a fairly mediocre offense, but are projected to score 109.5 points tonight. Not only is that the seventh highest in the slate, but it is 6.2 points above their season average. We can safely give a boost the Bucks’ offense as a whole tonight at home.

I’m really curious to see what Giannis Antetokounmpo ownership is going to look like tonight. He is in one of the best matchups in the entire slate, but there are so many superstars in great spots that it could lead to a lower ownership for Giannis. Either way, I plan to be overweight on him compared to the field. He has reached the point where we need to start considering him as one of the elite fantasy players in the league, right up there with Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins. With this game expected to stay close, we could get 36-38 minutes of Giannis against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Jabari Parker is really the only other Bucks’ player on my radar. The Blazers are ranked dead last against power forwards this season and Parker is averaging 33.2 fantasy points in his last three games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,200 $9,800 $14,200 1.37 34.2 -3.0 46.9 2.1 30.2% -3.0% 12
Matthew Dellavedova $4,000 $3,900 $7,500 0.70 28.6 -1.2 20.1 -2.7 19.3% 0.4% 23
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,300 $7,600 0.53 29.3 0.8 15.4 -1.0 13.8% -1.6% 17
Jabari Parker $6,600 $6,500 $10,300 0.95 32.6 -0.5 30.9 2.3 25.1% -0.8% 30
John Henson $4,700 $4,700 $7,700 0.97 19.5 6.2 18.9 10.4 16.5% 3.9% 23
Greg Monroe $4,800 $4,100 $8,300 1.22 18.6 2.1 22.7 1.2 22.4% 0.5% 23

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker, Matthew Dellavedova

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious