NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 1st
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers | | Orlando Magic |
| Vegas Total | 211.5 | | | Vegas Total | 211.5 |
Vegas Spread | -2.0 | | Vegas Spread | 2.0 |
Team Total | 106.8 | | Team Total | 104.8 |
Pace +/- | -0.4 | | Pace +/- | 1.0 |
Proj. Starter | | | | | | | Proj. Starter | | | | | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
Adj. DvP | 28 | 18 | 21 | 8 | 23 | | Adj. DvP | 16 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 20 |
DRPM | -0.55 | -0.18 | -0.99 | 0.44 | 1.58 | | DRPM | -0.21 | -0.80 | -0.30 | 1.83 | 2.01 |
Indiana Pacers
- Notable Injuries:
(Questionable)
Kevin Seraphin (Questionable)
C.J. Miles (Probable)
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.8 (11 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (12 of 24)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (11 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.4 (15 of 24)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.1 (22 of 30)
We have a massive 12 game slate on tap tonight. With a plane to catch this afternoon, I will keep the team analysis to a minimum and focus more on the picks from each game. If anyone happens to be going to the Waste Management Open, look for me in the crowd on the Par 3 16th hole. The Pacers have an implied total of 106.8 points tonight, as they square off against the Magic in Orlando. draws the best matchup of the five starters and is constantly underowned in DFS. The Magic are ranked 28th against point guards this season and Teague is coming off of three straight 39+ fantasy point outings. is expected to play tonight, but his appeal hinges on the availability of , who has been upgraded to questionable. has scored at least 42 fantasy points in four straight games. While his price on FanDuel makes him close to unplayable, he is still a strong play on DraftKings at $8,100. is always a viable cash game option if you are stuck at power forward and need someone at his price point. The Magic have struggled with athletic centers this season and minutes have been trending in the right direction. If he stays out of foul trouble, he could play 35 minutes against a defense that is ranked 23rd against centers.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $7,800 | $7,400 | 1.05 | 32.6 | 5.3 | 34.3 | 10.0 | 26.5% | -3.3% | 28 | -0.55 |
| $4,100 | $4,300 | 0.73 | 22.5 | 6.9 | 16.4 | -2.0 | 17.7% | -7.2% | 18 | -0.18 |
| $9,500 | $8,100 | 1.02 | 35.7 | 3.6 | 36.3 | 9.0 | 27.4% | 2.9% | 21 | -0.99 |
| $5,500 | $5,300 | 0.78 | 31.3 | -1.2 | 24.3 | -1.8 | 15.9% | -0.1% | 8 | 0.44 |
| $6,800 | $6,800 | 1.03 | 30.4 | 5.2 | 31.2 | 4.2 | 19.5% | -1.9% | 23 | 1.58 |
Elite Plays – (GPP), (DK), (FD)
Secondary Plays – (Cash), (FD), (DK), (GPP),
Orlando Magic
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 100.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.8 (15 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 4.7 (6 of 24)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (19 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.0 (8 of 24)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.1 (23 of 30)
The Magic have played well recently and are only listed as 2-point underdogs tonight against the Pacers at home. This is an exploitable matchup, as Indiana is ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. Orlando has been a frustrating team all season, but they are in a nice spot tonight. The problem is that they are fully healthy, which means , , and should all go back to their usual roles in the offense. may crack the starting lineup tonight, but I will continue to take a wait-and-see approach until he has a few good games under his belt. Payton is always worth a look in tournaments, especially in a pace-up game against the Pacers. Vucevic is my favorite play here, as the Pacers are ranked 20th against power forwards on the season and 27th over the last month of play. The minutes are always a concern with Vucevic, but he is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute and is one of the few high usage rate centers in the slate.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $6,900 | $6,400 | 0.94 | 29.3 | 0.7 | 27.6 | 4.6 | 25.7% | 1.9% | 16 | -0.21 |
| $4,200 | $3,800 | 0.55 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 8.6 | 12.9 | 15.1% | -0.3% | 14 | -0.80 |
| $5,000 | $5,100 | 0.77 | 27.6 | -2.0 | 21.2 | -3.9 | 19.7% | 1.7% | 15 | -0.30 |
| $5,800 | $6,100 | 0.93 | 30.3 | 0.7 | 28.0 | -6.1 | 20.1% | -2.4% | 21 | 1.83 |
| $7,000 | $6,500 | 1.14 | 28.3 | 3.0 | 32.2 | 5.4 | 25.1% | -0.5% | 20 | 2.01 |
| $5,100 | $5,000 | 0.78 | 32.8 | -9.9 | 25.5 | -14.3 | 23.9% | 2.7% | 14 | N/A |
Elite Plays – (GPP)
Secondary Plays – (Cash), (GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves | | Cleveland Cavaliers |
| Vegas Total | 213.0 | | | Vegas Total | 213.0 |
Vegas Spread | 7.0 | | Vegas Spread | -7.0 |
Team Total | 103.0 | | Team Total | 110.0 |
Pace +/- | 0.5 | | Pace +/- | -1.6 |
Proj. Starter | | | | | Karl-Anthony Towns | | Proj. Starter | | | | | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
Adj. DvP | 24 | 26 | 27 | 12 | 7 | | Adj. DvP | 14 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
DRPM | -1.41 | -0.29 | 0.83 | -0.91 | 2.36 | | DRPM | 1.44 | -3.31 | -2.02 | 3.10 | -0.84 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 104.2 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (17 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (18 of 24)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (24 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.5 (11 of 24)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.9 (19 of 30)
The Wolves catch the Cavaliers at a great time. There is strife between and the Cavaliers’ management and they are going to be without tonight. The issues in Cleveland help explain why the spread is set at only seven points. While I don’t mind the matchup on paper, the Wolves are only projected to score 103 points, which is the eighth lowest implied total in the slate. The best way to attack Cleveland is with the opposing backcourt, but and are both overpriced given their recent struggles with consistency. LeBron hasn’t been a shutdown defender this season, but I’m still not a huge fan of targeting players that are expected to be defending by him for 35+ minutes. is a deep tournament play, but there are better cash game targets at small forward. has been losing fourth quarter minutes to and . In a 12 game slate, he is an easy fade at his price point. Karl-Anthony Towns should have his lowest ownership in quite a while, but I’m not particularly thrilled about his matchup against . Towns if my favorite play here, but I probably will have very little exposure to the Wolves.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $6,900 | $7,200 | 0.85 | 31.6 | -1.4 | 26.9 | 7.5 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 24 | -1.41 |
| $6,200 | $6,600 | 0.75 | 37.3 | 3.2 | 27.9 | 1.3 | 22.0% | -3.9% | 26 | -0.29 |
| $7,500 | $7,400 | 0.83 | 37.1 | 2.0 | 30.9 | 4.1 | 27.4% | -0.3% | 27 | 0.83 |
| $5,800 | $5,500 | 0.80 | 32.2 | 1.2 | 25.7 | 2.5 | 15.4% | -2.1% | 12 | -0.91 |
Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,900 | $10,600 | 1.19 | 36.4 | 3.2 | 43.3 | 11.3 | 27.3% | 3.5% | 7 | 2.36 |
| $3,900 | $4,000 | 0.67 | 19.1 | 4.4 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 18.4% | -0.8% | 27 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.0 (6 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 0.4 (14 of 24)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (14 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.6 (20 of 24)
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.3 (9 of 30)
The Cavaliers are not in a great place right now. Their star player is asking management for more talent and management is saying that they have the highest payroll in the entire NBA. One trade rumor came out today that the Cavaliers are looking to swap for . It will be interesting to see what changes are going to be made before the trade deadline. While their recent form has been atrocious, I love the Cavaliers tonight at home against the Wolves. may treat this as a statement game, especially after his war of words with Charles Barkley. I expect James to come out firing and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post a triple double. He is right there with as the top overall play in the slate. sees the biggest usage boost with out of the lineup. He was on his way to a big game against the Mavericks, but ended up losing fantasy points in the fourth quarter in a game where the Cavaliers threw in the towel. Look for Irving to bounce back tonight against and the Wolves. The Cavaliers started small to match up with Dallas the other night, but will move into the starting lineup. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite power forward value play in the slate.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $8,600 | $8,200 | 1.06 | 35.1 | -2.2 | 37.1 | 2.9 | 31.4% | 3.8% | 14 | 1.44 |
| $4,100 | $4,100 | 0.61 | 25.2 | 4.0 | 15.4 | 1.2 | 14.1% | 1.2% | 8 | -3.31 |
| $11,000 | $10,200 | 1.27 | 37.5 | -1.4 | 47.8 | 1.7 | 33.0% | 1.7% | 6 | -2.02 |
| $4,200 | $4,000 | 0.82 | 18.5 | -0.9 | 15.2 | 1.9 | 18.6% | -1.2% | 7 | 3.10 |
| $5,100 | $4,800 | 0.79 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 22.8 | 5.7 | 10.5% | 1.6% | 14 | -0.84 |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – NONE
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks | | Miami Heat |
| Vegas Total | 203.5 | | | Vegas Total | 203.5 |
Vegas Spread | 1.5 | | Vegas Spread | -1.5 |
Team Total | 101.0 | | Team Total | 102.5 |
Pace +/- | -1.4 | | Pace +/- | 0.9 |
Proj. Starter | | | | | | | Proj. Starter | | | | | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
Adj. DvP | 6 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 8 | | Adj. DvP | 17 | 19 | 20 | 9 | 4 |
DRPM | -2.35 | -1.04 | -0.12 | -0.07 | 1.81 | | DRPM | -2.70 | -1.37 | -0.51 | 4.24 | 2.32 |
Atlanta Hawks
- Notable Injuries:
(Questionable)
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.0 (22 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (21 of 24)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (12 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.4 (18 of 24)
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.4 (6 of 30)
The Hawks and Heat are two of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. It’s funny how that works, as a few weeks ago, they were two of the coldest teams in the league. While we can expect this game to stay close, it isn’t all that appealing from a fantasy perspective. The over/under is set at a paltry 203.5 points and the Hawks have the third lowest implied total in the slate. The only reason to target any of the Hawks tonight is if is ruled out. If he is unable to suit up, and could both push for 30 minutes. In that scenario, they would both offer decent value at their respective positions. has been wildly inconsistent recently and is an easy fade in a pace-down game against the Heat. and both draw difficult matchups against a Miami frontcourt that is ranked 11th against power forwards and ninth against centers this season.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $6,700 | $6,300 | 0.96 | 31.0 | 5.6 | 29.7 | 2.3 | 29.9% | 0.1% | 6 | -2.35 |
| $4,900 | $4,200 | 0.76 | 23.8 | 13.9 | 18.1 | 8.5 | 22.4% | -2.2% | 4 | -1.04 |
| $5,000 | $5,300 | 0.76 | 27.5 | 6.9 | 20.8 | 10.2 | 20.9% | -0.8% | 16 | -0.12 |
| $8,400 | $7,800 | 1.06 | 34.4 | 5.4 | 36.3 | 1.6 | 25.1% | -0.7% | 11 | -0.07 |
| $7,100 | $7,200 | 1.12 | 29.6 | 4.2 | 33.1 | 0.4 | 18.5% | -1.6% | 8 | 1.81 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Kent Bazmore and (if Sefolosha is out)
Miami Heat
- Notable Injuries:
(Questionable)
James Johnson (Probable)
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 99.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (18 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 2.9 (10 of 24)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (22 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.9 (9 of 24)
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.5 (14 of 30)
The Heat have won eight games in a row and are still four games out of the playoff picture in the East, which goes to show how bad they were playing before this winning streak. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. While the Heat do have an implied total that is 2.9 points higher than their season average, this is a good spot to hop off of and . Not only are their prices inflated thanks to their recent play, but we have a 12 game slate on tap with a ton of options at point guard and shooting guard. I expect Dragic and Waiters to be higher owned than they should, which makes them easy fades in my eyes. basically needs 40+ fantasy points to reach value and he hasn’t cracked that mark one time in his last nine games. Even though the Heat have been red hot and even though they are favored at home, I will be taking a full fade stance on them tonight.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $8,000 | $7,400 | 0.97 | 34.5 | -1.0 | 33.4 | 7.0 | 29.0% | 1.7% | 17 | -2.70 |
| $3,800 | $3,100 | 0.52 | 25.8 | 2.8 | 13.4 | 5.1 | 11.9% | 1.2% | 19 | -1.37 |
| $7,100 | $6,800 | 0.84 | 30.7 | 4.0 | 25.8 | 5.9 | 27.0% | 1.5% | 20 | -0.51 |
| $3,500 | $3,400 | 0.57 | 17.2 | 1.1 | 9.8 | -0.3 | 9.4% | -0.5% | 9 | 4.24 |
| $8,700 | $7,300 | 1.13 | 33.2 | -3.6 | 37.6 | -11.5 | 21.3% | -2.9% | 4 | 2.32 |
| $6,100 | $5,800 | 0.92 | 26.2 | 5.7 | 24.2 | 12.2 | 22.3% | 1.2% | 9 | N/A |
Tyler Johnson | $5,800 | $4,900 | 0.86 | 30.7 | -11.5 | 26.5 | -21.3 | 21.9% | 1.8% | 17 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
Toronto Raptors | | Boston Celtics |
| Vegas Total | 217.5 | | | Vegas Total | 217.5 |
Vegas Spread | 5.5 | | Vegas Spread | -5.5 |
Team Total | 106.0 | | Team Total | 111.5 |
Pace +/- | -0.1 | | Pace +/- | -0.8 |
Proj. Starter | | | | | | | Proj. Starter | | | | | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
Adj. DvP | 22 | 23 | 7 | 16 | 27 | | Adj. DvP | 11 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
DRPM | -4.64 | 0.23 | 0.89 | 0.21 | 0.90 | | DRPM | 1.04 | -0.15 | 0.69 | 1.77 | -0.29 |
Toronto Raptors
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 109.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 (23 of 24)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (20 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.1 (13 of 24)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.8 (18 of 30)
The Raptors picked up a nice come from behind victory against the Pelicans last night at home. While some will be concerned about the fact that they played in overtime and have a quick turnaround, we’ve seen Dwyane Casey plays his starters big minutes in back-to-backs all season. With out, there are a number of viable fantasy options tonight against the Celtics. Lowry is averaging 45 fantasy points per game without DeRozan in the lineup and he gets the treatment, which I hear is pretty nice this time of year. If you look at the Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) numbers, Thomas is the worst defender in the entire NBA. Lowry is close to a cash game lock for me on both FanDuel and DraftKings. has taken at least 15 shots in each of the last four games that DeRozan has missed. He is way too cheap on FanDuel at a price of $4,200. It’s hard to argue a fade of Powell, although he will likely be one of the highest owned players in the slate. is an intriguing GPP play off the bench. I expect him to be less than 10% owned and he has shown 25+ fantasy point upside. is a decent value at power forward, although I’d rather pay a few hundred more to get up to . I always like targeting against bad rebounding teams and Boston is currently ranked 26th in rebounding differential this season.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $8,700 | $8,600 | 1.07 | 37.5 | 3.2 | 40.1 | 7.8 | 27.2% | 3.5% | 22 | -4.64 |
| $4,200 | $5,500 | 0.72 | 16.5 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 19.0% | 2.0% | 23 | 0.23 |
| $4,000 | $3,900 | 0.68 | 26.3 | 2.6 | 17.9 | -1.8 | 15.9% | 1.3% | 7 | 0.89 |
| $3,900 | $3,500 | 0.64 | 28.0 | 2.3 | 18.0 | 4.7 | 12.3% | -0.9% | 16 | 0.21 |
| $5,800 | $5,400 | 0.97 | 27.1 | 1.0 | 26.2 | 2.9 | 18.5% | 1.2% | 27 | 0.90 |
| $3,700 | $4,100 | 0.75 | 22.5 | 0.4 | 16.9 | 0.1 | 18.5% | 0.2% | 7 | N/A |
Elite Plays – , (FD)
Secondary Plays – (DK), (GPP), , (GPP)
Boston Celtics
- Notable Injuries:
(Doubtful)
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 108.3 (6 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 111.5 (3 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (8 of 24)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (17 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.8 (16 of 24)
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.3 (5 of 30)
The Celtics were hoping to have back in the lineup tonight, but he has been downgraded to doubtful. If he ends up being ruled out, we should know what to expect from Boston. sees a nice usage boost and he has scored at least 20 actual points in 20-something straight games (couldn’t find the actual number). The issue with Thomas is that his price is $10,600 on FanDuel. It’s hard to justify paying that price in a 12 game slate, especially since point guard is such a deep position. If you want some exposure to Thomas, I would get it on DraftKings, where he is only $9,500. was quiet in his last game, but we expect rookies to play better at home. He is a nice bounce-back target in tournaments tonight on FanDuel at a price of only $3,800. has stepped up in Bradley’s absence, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in four straight games. I like Crowder more if you are playing in one of the turbo slates compared to the full 12-game slate. is still too cheap on DraftKings and we know that he sees a small usage boost with Bradley out. The problem is that all centers are typically underpriced on DraftKings, so he doesn’t even crack my top five in terms of the best point-per-dollar plays.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $10,600 | $9,500 | 1.22 | 34.3 | -0.1 | 41.7 | 6.4 | 35.3% | -0.2% | 11 | 1.04 |
| $3,800 | $4,000 | 0.68 | 14.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 18.0% | 0.8% | 7 | -0.15 |
| $6,600 | $6,200 | 0.80 | 32.4 | 1.2 | 25.8 | 9.0 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 11 | 0.69 |
| $3,500 | $3,400 | 0.64 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 12.0% | -0.1% | 10 | 1.77 |
| $7,600 | $6,800 | 1.03 | 33.2 | 1.3 | 34.2 | -4.0 | 22.5% | -3.8% | 11 | -0.29 |
| $5,700 | $5,600 | 0.76 | 30.6 | -1.3 | 23.3 | 2.1 | 20.1% | 1.5% | 11 | N/A |
| $4,000 | $4,300 | 0.84 | 21.1 | 3.4 | 17.7 | 4.3 | 18.3% | -1.6% | 11 | N/A |
Elite Plays – (DK)
Secondary Plays – (FD), (FD), , (DK)
New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans | | Detroit Pistons |
| Vegas Total | 211.5 | | | Vegas Total | 211.5 |
Vegas Spread | 7.0 | | Vegas Spread | -7.0 |
Team Total | 102.3 | | Team Total | 109.3 |
Pace +/- | -2.1 | | Pace +/- | 1.3 |
Proj. Starter | | | | | | | Proj. Starter | | | | | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
Adj. DvP | 25 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 17 | | Adj. DvP | 27 | 17 | 18 | 27 | 16 |
DRPM | -2.17 | 0.17 | 0.66 | 1.07 | 1.65 | | DRPM | 1.15 | -2.74 | 1.04 | 0.30 | 3.07 |
New Orleans Pelicans
- Notable Injuries:
(Questionable)
Tyreke Evans (Probable)
- New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.3 (20 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (19 of 24)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (8 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -2.1 (21 of 24)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.5 (7 of 30)
The Pelicans are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing to the Raptors in Toronto last night. It was originally reported that would miss tonight’s game as well, but it was later fixed to say that he was only going to be rested in the front half of the back-to-back. We can expect him to be in the rotation tonight against the Pistons. This is not a great matchup overall, as Detroit is ranked sixth in points allowed per game this season. My favorite times to target are when Evans and/or are out. With both of them in the lineup, we see his usage rate go down. Holiday has been on a tear recently, but I don’t want to pay a premium for him when their team is fully healthy. Davis is really the only fantasy option on my radar from New Orleans. Despite having one of his worst shooting performances of the season, he still put up 51 fantasy points against the Raptors last night. I will note that he did bang knees with his teammate on the final play of the game. He is fully expected to play tonight, but we know his track record with injuries.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $7,800 | $7,700 | 1.02 | 31.5 | 8.0 | 32.2 | 13.3 | 27.0% | 0.3% | 25 | -2.17 |
| $3,500 | $3,200 | 0.69 | 20.2 | 0.5 | 13.9 | -2.9 | 20.4% | -2.9% | 6 | 0.17 |
| $4,700 | $4,000 | 0.54 | 27.8 | 4.2 | 14.9 | 4.0 | 11.5% | 2.2% | 14 | 0.66 |
| $5,600 | $6,000 | 0.95 | 24.4 | -1.6 | 23.1 | -0.1 | 20.5% | 2.5% | 4 | 1.07 |
| $11,200 | $10,500 | 1.41 | 36.0 | 2.2 | 50.7 | 2.2 | 31.0% | -3.0% | 17 | 1.65 |
E’Twaun Moore | $3,700 | $3,500 | 0.70 | 24.8 | -1.2 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 18.1% | 0.3% | 6 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays –
Detroit Pistons
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 100.8 (25 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.3 (7 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 8.5 (2 of 24)
Pace of Play: 96.6 (26 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.3 (6 of 24)
- New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.8 (28 of 30)
The Pistons are one of those teams that we rarely get excited to see on the schedule. They are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and they generally play solid defense. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans though, and come into the game with a surprisingly high implied total of 109.3 points. Not only is that the seventh highest team total in the slate, but it is 8.5 points above their season average. is a solid defender, but we have seen point guards have a lot of success against the Pelicans this season. stands out as a terrific tournament play in a slate where he should be less than 10% owned. isn’t a bad play here, but shooting guard is loaded with value plays like , , and . is a viable mid-range small forward, but he’s not the type of player that we are looking to build our lineups around. I play more than most, but there are better values at power forward tonight, namely . is in the same boat as Leuer. is coming off of a massive game against the Celtics (and he hit the 20/20 mark that was predicted in the Grind Down). His ownership should be inflated in this spot and I’m not particularly interested in his matchup against . I may have some GPP exposure to Drummond, but will be fading him in cash games.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
| $6,500 | $6,500 | 0.93 | 29.3 | 2.0 | 27.2 | 3.8 | 31.1% | -1.8% | 27 | 1.15 |
| $5,600 | $5,600 | 0.73 | 33.7 | 1.8 | 24.5 | -1.0 | 20.0% | 1.1% | 17 | -2.74 |
| $5,200 | $5,300 | 0.70 | 32.8 | 3.4 | 22.9 | -4.5 | 19.8% | -2.5% | 18 | 1.04 |
| $4,800 | $4,400 | 0.81 | 26.7 | -0.7 | 21.6 | -2.7 | 16.7% | -1.8% | 27 | 0.30 |
| $8,700 | $7,900 | 1.18 | 30.8 | 6.5 | 36.4 | 13.7 | 21.9% | -0.4% | 16 | 3.07 |
| $5,800 | $5,400 | 0.81 | 32.7 | -4.9 | 26.5 | -6.6 | 21.3% | 0.5% | 27 | N/A |
Elite Plays – (GPP)
Secondary Plays – (Cash), , (GPP)
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