Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-12 03:44:42

Jump to Page 1 2

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Philadelphia 76ers
newyorknba Vegas Total 209.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 105.5 Team Total 104.0
Pace +/- 0.9 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 17 15 23 12 25 DvP 11 28 12 18 28
DRPM -0.01 -1.48 2.55 0.23 1.40 DRPM -2.22 -0.59 -1.46 1.71 1.62

New York Knicks

The Knicks are hoping to have all of their players available tonight, or at the very least, all of them in the arena. If you don’t know what I’m referring to, Derrick Rose went missing before the Knicks’ game on Monday night and nothing was reported about it until right before tip off. Rose was basically 35% owned across the industry and sent DFS Twitter into a frenzy. While I expect late scratches every now and then, I certainly don’t expect players to not show up to the game and not tell anyone about it. Rose is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, but hopefully a beat writer or two will actually see him warming up so that we know for sure. The Knicks have an ideal matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 17th in defensive efficiency. The Knicks have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is identical to their season average.

This is a situation where we can “take advantage of recency bias in tournaments“https://rotogrinders.com/marketplace/notorious-ultimate-guide-to-beating-nba-dfs-344. Everyone that was burned by Derrick Rose will be off of him tonight and everyone else will be scared to roster him, despite a favorable matchup against the Sixers. I wouldn’t use Rose in a cash game setting, but he has tremendous upside at his price point. It reminds me a bit of Rajon Rondo last night, who people were scared to play even though he was expected to see big minutes. Courtney Lee is a player that I rarely have exposure to and that trend will continue tonight. Carmelo Anthony is expensive and has the toughest individual matchup of the five starters. Robert Covington has a DRPM of 2.55, which is the third highest of any small forward in the NBA. I will have some exposure to Anthony in tournaments, but I prefer LeBron James and Andrew Wiggins over Anthony in cash games. Kristaps Porzingis has been quiet since returning from his injury, but should bounce back nicely against a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 22nd in rebounding differential. I’m a big Joakim Noah fan in general, but I can’t play him with a healthy Porzingis in the lineup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,600 $5,900 0.89 31.9 -3.1 28.5 -4.4 28.0% -2.1% 17 -0.01
Courtney Lee $4,200 $4,000 0.57 31.0 -1.0 17.7 -1.7 13.9% -0.7% 15 -1.48
Carmelo Anthony $8,000 $7,600 1.04 33.3 -2.6 34.7 -1.2 29.0% -1.0% 23 2.55
Kristaps Porzingis $7,900 $7,500 1.00 34.3 -5.0 34.5 -6.7 23.5% 0.4% 12 0.23
Joakim Noah $4,800 $4,700 0.94 22.7 -2.9 21.4 -4.8 14.4% 2.1% 25 1.40
Brandon Jennings $4,900 $4,900 0.83 23.6 -4.5 19.5 0.3 23.3% 7.8% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (GPP), Carmelo Anthony

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won four of their last ten games, so we can consider them to be in their best form of the season. They draw one of the best possible matchups tonight, as they host the visiting Knicks. On the season, New York is ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. On a somewhat unrelated note, if you aren’t following “”(player-popup)Joel Embiid”:/players/joel-embiid-18578 on Twitter”:https://twitter.com/JoelEmbiid, you should be. He is doing everything he can for those All-Star votes and it’s hilarious. The Sixers come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104 points, which is 4.8 points above their season average.

Sergio Rodriguez, who I referred to as Sergio Garcia in today’s Morning Grind Podcast, only played 12 minutes in his first game back from injury. Coach Brett Brown said that he wants to ease him back into the rotation, which is an easy thing to do given how well T.J. McConnell has been playing. McConnell is tentatively expected to draw another start at point guard tonight and he should see somewhere in the range of 30 minutes. It’s a great matchup for McConnell and given the unexpected minute projection, his ownership will be lower than it should be in tournaments. Nik Stauskas appears to have taken over the starting shooting guard role, but until he can shown some consistency, he remains a GPP flier at best. I expect Robert Covington to match Carmelo Anthony minute for minute tonight and assuming he stays out of foul trouble, that means he has 35+ minute type of upside. We know Covington has a wide range of outcomes, but the upside is present in this matchup. Ersan Ilyasova has played well for the Sixers this season, but with all of their big men healthy, I will be fading him again tonight. Joel Embiid is the player in the frontcourt that I want to have the most exposure to. He is averaging 1.35 fantasy points per minute with an elite true usage rate of 34.7%. He has also topped his 28-minute restriction twice in the last four games. He should be able to dominate a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 28th against centers. Nerlens Noel has played at least 24 minutes in back-to-back games. He is a decent value play over on DraftKings ($4,200).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,400 $5,500 0.80 21.7 14.2 17.3 14.0 19.2% -3.0% 11 -2.22
Nik Stauskas $3,700 $3,900 0.59 26.4 2.7 15.5 1.0 16.5% -2.1% 28 -0.59
Robert Covington $5,500 $6,000 0.75 30.2 7.1 22.7 9.5 17.8% -1.2% 12 -1.46
Ersan Ilyasova $5,900 $6,100 0.89 27.3 2.7 24.2 4.8 21.6% 5.4% 18 1.71
Joel Embiid $7,500 $8,000 1.35 25.0 1.6 33.7 3.7 34.7% 1.0% 28 1.62
Nerlens Noel $4,600 $4,200 1.05 14.1 5.9 14.9 7.1 17.8% -2.2% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, T.J. McConnell, Nerlens Noel (DK)

Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Minnesota Timberwolves
houstonnba Vegas Total 219.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 111.3 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- 2.3
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Montrezl Harrell Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Kris Dunn Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 9 8 4 21 DvP 12 24 22 22 18
DRPM 1.03 -0.20 -2.40 2.92 -1.60 DRPM 1.51 -1.38 1.84 -0.59 -0.05

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are looking for their tenth win in a row, as they head to Minnesota to take on the Wolves. This is the second half of a back-to-back for Houston and Vegas is expecting this game to be close and high scoring, which are two attributes that we love to see when it comes to DFS. The Wolves have not been great defensively this season, ranking 16th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, but it’s not like we are clamoring to target the Rockets’ big men anyway. Houston comes into the game as a 3.5-point favorite with an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the third highest in the slate.

James Harden picked up his 11th triple-double of the season last night with 40 points, 15 rebounds, and ten assists. He now has back-to-back triple-doubles with at least 40 points, which has to put him on some type of short list. At this point, fading him is not really an option in cash games. It sounds like Zach LaVine is going to miss this game, so the Wolves don’t have many choices in terms of defenders they can throw at him. Harden is the top overall play in the slate, slightly beating out Russell Westbrook. Patrick Beverley is a decent cash game option, but there are always a number of great point guard plays in a slate and it really comes down to opportunity cost at the position. Trevor Ariza could see 35+ minutes tonight if Eric Gordon is unable to suit up. I see Ariza as an elite play if Gordon is out and a secondary play if Gordon is active. Ryan Anderson has one of the toughest individual matchups in the slate. Gorgui Dieng has a DRPM of 2.92 and the Rockets are ranked fourth against power forwards. Montrezl Harrell is a strong play in all formats tonight on FanDuel. He continues to be underpriced at $4,800, despite averaging over 27 fantasy points per game in his last seven.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $6,000 $5,600 0.84 30.8 1.1 26.0 0.0 15.8% 1.1% 21 1.03
James Harden $12,400 $12,000 1.46 36.6 0.0 53.5 2.8 38.7% 4.1% 9 -0.20
Trevor Ariza $5,800 $5,700 0.77 33.9 3.0 26.0 1.9 14.9% -1.5% 8 -2.40
Ryan Anderson $5,200 $5,000 0.73 30.8 2.9 22.4 -0.9 17.1% -3.2% 4 2.92
Montrezl Harrell $4,800 $5,300 0.91 18.5 7.0 16.8 10.9 18.1% 0.5% 21 -1.60
Eric Gordon $5,900 $5,900 0.85 30.6 1.8 25.9 3.6 23.8% 1.0% 9 N/A
Nene Hilario $3,600 $3,300 0.84 16.8 2.1 14.0 1.5 18.6% -0.7% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Montrezl Harrell (FD), Trevor Ariza (if Gordon is out)

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza (if Gordon is active), Patrick Beverley

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves catch the Rockets at the perfect time. Houston is playing in the second half of a back-to-back and they may be without one of their best scorers in Eric Gordon. Vegas likes the Wolves to keep this game close, as they are only listed as 3.5-point underdogs. Houston has picked up their pace of play over the last month of play and are now ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 16th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota has an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 4.8 points above their season average. Zach LaVine is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but reports say that he is much closer to doubtful. For our purposes, let’s assume that he is going to miss the game.

As I mentioned yesterday, point guards generally have lower DRPM’s than other positions because there are more scorers at point guard than there are at any other position. Even though Patrick Beverley DRPM of 1.51 doesn’t jump off the page, it is the second best mark of any point guard in the NBA. The question is whether Zach LaVine absence is enough of a boost for Ricky Rubio to overcome the tough matchup. If we pull up CourtIQ, we can see that Rubio has a 2.9% usage boost and a 0.13 FP/min boost with LaVine off the floor. Add in the fact that Rubio could play 35+ minutes and at the very least, he becomes an intriguing play. If LaVine is out, Kris Dunn or Shabazz Muhammad would likely draw the start at shooting guard. We have to remember that LaVine averages close to 38 minutes per game, which opens up a ton of playing time. Muhammad is a strong value play either way, but I would probably only use Dunn if he ends up drawing the start. Nemanja Bjelica could also see a nice bump in minutes with LaVine out. I have a hard time fading Andrew Wiggins tonight. He has a great matchup, he could end up playing 40 minutes, and he sees a massive 7.2% usage boost with LaVine off the floor. Wiggins may be my favorite point-per-dollar play in the entire slate. Gorgui Dieng should see minutes in the mid-30s against a Rockets’ defense that is ranked 22nd against power forwards. Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t see much of a boost with LaVine off the floor, but he is a monster at home, averaging over 45 fantasy points per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,000 $5,600 0.79 31.5 1.6 24.9 6.4 17.5% 0.8% 12 1.51
Kris Dunn $3,500 $3,000 0.70 16.9 -2.0 11.8 -3.7 17.6% -1.4% 24 -1.38
Andrew Wiggins $6,300 $6,400 0.82 36.8 1.1 30.2 -1.2 27.7% 2.9% 22 1.84
Gorgui Dieng $5,500 $5,400 0.79 32.9 2.1 26.0 0.3 15.3% 0.8% 22 -0.59
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,500 $9,500 1.16 35.6 3.0 41.4 2.6 27.3% -2.9% 18 -0.05
Shabazz Muhammad $3,500 $3,800 0.64 17.8 1.2 11.4 -0.9 18.8% -4.2% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns (DK), Shabazz Muhammad and Kris Dunn (if LaVine is out), Nemanja Bjelica

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Oklahoma City Thunder
memphisnba Vegas Total 203.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 99.0 Team Total 104.0
Pace +/- 1.5 Pace +/- -3.4
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 22 6 8 13 5 DvP 3 8 1 3 1
DRPM -0.21 0.36 1.95 1.60 2.30 DRPM -1.52 1.93 0.43 1.19 1.17

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are coming off of a big win against the Warriors. They have won six of their last ten games and are ranked fifth in the Western Conference standings. They draw a pace-up matchup against the Thunder tonight in Oklahoma City. While the Thunder are ranked eighth in defensive efficiency, they are a middle-of-the-pack defense in terms of points allowed per game. Memphis has an implied total of 99 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

Fantasy options are generally few and far between when it comes to the Grizzlies, but we have to like the matchup for Mike Conley. He has played at least 32 minutes in four straight games and he has scored at least 35 fantasy points three times during that stretch. The best way to attack the Thunder is with the opposing point guard, as they are ranked 22nd against the position this season. In his last game against Westbrook where he played full minutes, Conley scored 44 fantasy points. Tony Allen is a decent value at shooting guard, as he may see a few extra minutes tonight. He will likely be tasked with defending Westbrook for much of the game. Marc Gasol is too expensive on FanDuel ($8,200) and too cheap on DraftKings ($6,800). We have to be price sensitive in daily fantasy basketball and Gasol is a prime example of why.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $7,200 $6,900 1.04 31.9 5.3 33.0 8.7 29.3% 0.2% 22 -0.21
Tony Allen $4,700 $4,900 0.76 28.1 5.4 21.3 3.0 17.3% -1.2% 6 0.36
Chandler Parsons $3,500 $3,200 0.61 17.6 -1.7 10.7 1.3 19.2% -0.5% 8 1.95
JaMychal Green $4,500 $4,300 0.73 29.4 -3.5 21.4 -7.1 14.0% -3.0% 13 1.60
Marc Gasol $8,200 $6,800 1.07 33.8 3.0 36.0 -1.6 28.1% -1.8% 5 2.30
Zach Randolph $6,000 $5,800 1.12 23.2 3.8 26.0 6.9 29.4% -0.7% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol (DK)

Secondary Plays – Tony Allen, Marc Gasol (FD)

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won six of their last ten games and are one of the many teams in the West that are competing for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. We basically know at least seven of the teams that will make the playoffs in the West, we just don’t know the seeding after the Warriors, Spurs, and Rockets. The Thunder draw one of the worst matchups in the slate, as they take on the Grizzlies, who force teams to play down to their tempo. On the season, Memphis is ranked 28th in pace of play, third in points allowed per game, and second in defensive efficiency. Despite the difficult matchup on paper, the Thunder still have a fairly high implied total of 104 points.

If you look at his recent meetings against the Grizzlies, you are going to be one of the many that want to fade Russell Westbrook tonight. He has scored 44, 40, and 25 fantasy points in his last three games against Memphis. While that’s a small concern, Westbrook didn’t play more than 30 minutes in any of those games and he was thrown out early in the third quarter in the game where he scored 25 fantasy points. I’ve made a lot of money playing the chalky Westbrook this season and I don’t plan to change my approach tonight. There is some merit to fading him in tournaments, but you can also make the case that he will be lower owned than usual. Outside of Westbrook, I’m not overly thrilled about any of the other Thunder players. Victor Oladipo, Enes Kanter, and Steven Adams are all secondary plays at their respective positions.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,100 $11,800 1.67 34.6 0.7 57.6 4.6 45.8% -3.8% 3 -1.52
Victor Oladipo $5,800 $5,900 0.78 34.0 -1.1 26.5 0.1 21.2% 0.0% 8 1.93
Andre Roberson $3,800 $4,000 0.56 31.1 4.6 17.6 5.6 10.7% 0.6% 1 0.43
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,200 0.63 21.2 0.0 13.4 2.4 14.4% 0.4% 3 1.19
Steven Adams $6,000 $5,700 0.87 29.9 2.2 26.0 5.2 16.4% 0.2% 1 1.17
Enes Kanter $5,700 $5,100 1.14 20.8 3.0 23.6 8.2 25.0% -3.0% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Enes Kanter, Steven Adams

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Boston Celtics
washingtonnba Vegas Total 217.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 217.5
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 105.5 Team Total 112.0
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 3 26 25 23 DvP 5 13 11 22 7
DRPM -4.04 0.58 1.34 1.54 1.27 DRPM -0.40 -0.63 1.34 1.18 1.39

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after narrowly beating the second-string Bulls at home last night. They draw a much more difficult matchup this time around, as Boston has won seven of their last ten games. While the Wizards are sizable underdogs here, this is still a decent matchup for fantasy production. On the season, the Celtics are ranked 14th in points allowed per game, 18th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in rebounding differential. The Wizards have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and nearly identical to their season average.

John Wall draws the best individual matchup an NBA player could possibly have. As I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, Isaiah Thomas has the worst DRPM of any player in the entire league at -4.04. Wall is averaging 44.7 fantasy points per game on the season with an elite true usage rate of 34.4%. If the Wizards are able to keep this game close, it will likely be thanks to a big game from Wall. Bradley Beal continues to deal with a nagging ankle injury and while he would see a boost if Avery Bradley sits out, I’m a little concerned that he logged 37 minutes last night. I see Beal as a better GPP play than cash game target. Otto Porter should see all of the minutes that he can handle and while he doesn’t have a great matchup against Jae Crowder, he is a viable secondary play at small forward. Markieff Morris has been trolling us all season, but we love targeting bigs against the Celtics. Bring out the barf bags, because this is a great spot for Morris and I’m recommending him in all formats. Marcin Gortat continues to play 35+ minutes a night and he draws a great matchup against a Celtics’ frontcourt that is ranked 23rd against centers and 28th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,500 $9,200 1.23 36.5 2.5 44.7 -1.9 34.4% -4.8% 16 -4.04
Bradley Beal $6,900 $6,400 0.92 34.4 1.4 31.6 -3.3 26.5% -2.3% 3 0.58
Otto Porter $5,900 $6,200 0.82 33.9 1.7 27.9 2.0 15.2% -0.8% 26 1.34
Markieff Morris $5,100 $5,600 0.77 31.4 0.4 24.1 5.6 19.7% 1.8% 25 1.54
Marcin Gortat $6,400 $6,000 0.84 35.9 1.3 30.0 -3.7 14.1% -0.1% 23 1.27

Elite Plays – John Wall, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (GPP), Otto Porter

Boston Celtics

The Celtics fell short against the Raptors last night in Toronto, but they have a chance to get right back to their winning ways tonight. They draw an excellent matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Boston comes into the game as a 6.5-point favorite with an implied total of 112 points, which is the highest in the slate and 5.2 points above their season average. Avery Bradley has missed the last two games with an Achilles injury. While I can’t imagine much has changed in the last 24 hours, the Celtics are hopeful that he can return to the lineup tonight.

If Avery Bradley is ruled out again, we can hop on over to the CourtIQ tool to see what happens with him off the floor. Isaiah Thomas sees a 2.5% usage boost and a 0.13 FP/min boost when he’s not playing next to Bradley. We know Thomas has a high floor and a high ceiling, we just don’t know if he’s worth the $8,900 price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I see Thomas as an elite play if Bradley is out and more of a secondary play if Bradley is active. The same can be said for Marcus Smart, who has scored at least 35 fantasy points in three straight games. If Bradley is able to return to the lineup, his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings is awfully appealing against a Wizards’ defense that has historically struggled against wings. Jae Crowder has disappointed with Bradley out of the lineup and for now he can be avoided in all formats. Surprisingly enough, Al Horford sees the biggest usage boost with Bradley out (4.9%). Horford is certainly a viable GPP play if Bradley is unable to suit up.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,900 $8,900 1.19 33.7 2.7 40.2 -3.3 34.6% -1.7% 5 -0.40
Marcus Smart $5,200 $6,300 0.76 29.9 3.2 22.7 13.4 19.9% 1.3% 13 -0.63
Jae Crowder $5,000 $5,200 0.75 31.5 1.4 23.7 -8.1 16.0% -3.7% 11 1.34
Amir Johnson $4,100 $4,100 0.79 20.6 1.6 16.4 3.6 14.8% 2.0% 22 1.18
Al Horford $7,400 $6,700 1.05 32.9 1.1 34.6 -0.6 23.2% 0.9% 7 1.39
Avery Bradley $6,700 $5,800 0.89 35.0 0.8 31.2 10.6 22.3% 6.6% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart (if Bradley is out)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart (if Bradley is active), Avery Bradley (if active), Al Horford (GPP)

Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET

Orlando Magic Los Angeles Clippers
orlandonba Vegas Total 208.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 10.5 Vegas Spread -10.5
Team Total 99.0 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- -1.0
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Chris Paul Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 8 4 24 6 12 DvP 25 10 13 8 24
DRPM 3.51 -2.50 -1.73 2.71 2.55 DRPM -0.46 -1.07 -1.43 0.48 1.38

Orlando Magic

The Magic are the biggest underdogs in the slate tonight at 10.5 points. They draw a difficult matchup against the Clippers and they may be playing short-handed. Elfrid Payton and Serge Ibaka are both listed as questionable and with this being a late tip-off, we may not know their availability before lineups lock. On the season, the Clippers are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. The Magic have an implied total of only 99 points, which is the second lowest in the slate. Basically, if all of the Magic players are active tonight, they are an easy fade as a whole. If Payton is ruled out before lock, D.J. Augustin would immediately become a top value play, while Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic would both see small usage bumps. If Ibaka is ruled out, we could see more minutes for Vucevic, Bismack Biyombo, and potentially even Aaron Gordon. Vucevic is by far my favorite play of the three, but it would take at least one of Payton or Ibaka to be ruled out for me to play him.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $5,900 $5,400 0.92 28.5 -2.3 26.2 -1.1 24.8% 3.1% 8 3.51
Evan Fournier $5,800 $6,000 0.79 33.3 -0.5 26.4 -3.2 24.2% 1.3% 4 -2.50
Aaron Gordon $4,600 $5,200 0.78 26.4 1.9 20.5 3.5 20.1% 0.4% 24 -1.73
Serge Ibaka $6,700 $6,300 0.95 30.7 4.0 29.1 0.4 20.6% 1.4% 6 2.71
Bismack Biyombo $4,200 $3,800 0.76 25.7 -3.6 19.6 -5.4 12.5% 0.4% 12 2.55
Nikola Vucevic $6,900 $6,600 1.14 27.9 0.4 31.9 -1.3 25.2% 4.2% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have won four games in a row and are counting down the days until Blake Griffin can return to the lineup. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Clippers have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and slightly above their season average. The only concern here is a potential blowout, as the Clippers are listed as 10.5-point favorites.

Even without Blake Griffin in the lineup, we haven’t been able to rely on any of the Clippers on a nightly basis. Chris Paul is obviously the top target here, but I would rather target Damian Lillard, John Wall, Russell Westbrook, or Isaiah Thomas. I do think the masses will have a similar line of thinking though, which could create an opportunity to get Paul at low ownership. We know that he has 50+ fantasy point type of upside with Griffin off the floor. The Clippers have too many guards that are splitting minutes right now with Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick, and Raymond Felton all playing important minutes. It’s tough to predict where the production is going to come from each night, so for now I see them as GPP fliers. DeAndre Jordan has scored at least 37 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. He is firmly in play against a Magic team that is ranked 24th against centers and 23rd in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $9,200 $9,400 1.32 31.4 -1.2 41.4 7.8 28.6% -4.0% 25 -0.46
Austin Rivers $4,400 $4,700 0.67 25.8 14.2 17.2 20.1 19.9% 2.9% 10 -1.07
J.J. Redick $4,500 $5,500 0.71 27.5 6.8 19.6 8.6 21.6% 0.5% 13 -1.43
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.54 23.5 2.8 12.8 0.5 11.4% 0.8% 8 0.48
DeAndre Jordan $7,500 $7,000 1.01 31.9 3.9 32.2 4.9 14.4% 0.1% 24 1.38
Jamal Crawford $4,000 $4,100 0.68 26.6 3.3 18.1 0.2 23.3% -0.2% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, J.J. Redick (FD)

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious