NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-01-04 02:05:57

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		205.5					Vegas Total		205.5
			Vegas Spread		0.0					Vegas Spread		0.0
			Implied Team Total		102.8					Implied Team Total		102.8
			Pace Projection +/-		4.0					Pace Projection +/-		-3.0
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Bryn Forbes	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Amir Johnson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	23	26	22	18	25		DvP	3	3	5	8	5
DRPM Rat.	1	27	1	27	8		DRPM Rat.	1	28	1	20	3

San Antonio Spurs

The first game of the night might be the best one to target when it comes to value. The Spurs are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and in typical Gregg Popovich fashion, he has decided to rest Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. Rudy Gay and Danny Green have also been ruled out, as they are dealing with injuries. Even though the Spurs are playing without a number of their key pieces, this game is set as a pick ‘em. The Spurs draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 25th in points allowed per game this season.

Dejounte Murray has already been named the starter at point guard and there’s a good chance that he plays 30 minutes tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked 23rd in DvP against point guards. Murray is a very productive per-minute player and he’s going to see an increased role in a favorable matchup. At his price point, he’s an elite plug and play value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Bryn Forbes and Kyle Anderson should both log heavy minutes tonight as well. Of the two, I prefer Anderson, who averages 0.35 more fantasy points per minute than Forbes.

When it comes to the frontcourt, we can look at it in one of two ways. We can expect LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol to carry the load offensively or we can expect them to be limited since Popovich is resting so many of his players. As long as the game stays close, I would expect Aldridge and Gasol to see a full complement of minutes. They aren’t safe enough plays for cash games, but they are both excellent tournament targets against a Sixers’ team that is expected to be without Joel Embiid.

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Rudy Gay (Out)
Tony Parker (Out)
Danny Green (Out)

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 101.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (18 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (10 of 24)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dejounte Murray, Kyle Anderson, LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge (Cash), Pau Gasol (GPP)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have one of the worst matchups on paper, although the Spurs aren’t quite as good of a defensive team without the four players that are sitting out tonight’s game. Even though San Antonio is short-handed and playing in a back-to-back, the Sixers are still projected to score 5.6 points less than their season average. This isn’t an ideal matchup by any means, especially given the fact that there are 12 games on the schedule tonight.

Joel Embiid is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. If he ends up being out, Dario Saric, Amir Johnson, and Richaun Holmes would all see extra minutes in the frontcourt. None of the three stand out as elite plays, but they are all viable secondary options at their respective positions. The rest of the Sixers are easy fades in a tough matchup against the Spurs. On the season, San Antonio is ranked eighth or better in DvP against point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers.

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Doubtful)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (18 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -5.6 (21 of 24)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.3 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dario Saric, Amir Johnson, Richaun Holmes

Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		219.5					Vegas Total		219.5
			Vegas Spread		-8.0					Vegas Spread		8.0
			Implied Team Total		113.8					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		2.1
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	Eric Gordon	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Evan Fournier	Jonathon Simmons	Aaron Gordon	Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	30	28	20	29	23		DvP	10	21	29	5	18
DRPM Rat.	27	26	30	27	24		DRPM Rat.	6	25	11	28	4

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are going to be without James Harden for the next couple of weeks, as he suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain. He was responsible for so much offensively that his absence opens the door for the rest of the lineup. The icing on the cake is that the Rockets get to face the Magic in their first game without Harden. On the season, Orlando is ranked seventh in pace of play, 27th in points allowed per game, and 26th in rebounding differential. Even without Harden, the Rockets are still projected to score 113.8 points.

Chris Paul is basically a lock for me tonight in both cash games and tournaments. I expect him to be popular, but the sites did a nice job of increasing his price after the Harden news came out. If Paul was still in the $8,000 price range, he would have been 50% owned in tournaments. With Harden off the floor this season, Paul has a usage rate of 33% with a FP/min of 1.78. I’m more than willing to pay a premium for Paul in this matchup, as the Magic are ranked 25th in efficiency and dead last in DvP against point guards this season.

Eric Gordon will draw the start at shooting guard and he is an intriguing play in all formats. DFS players will be hesitant to target him at this price point, but there’s a chance that Gordon will play 40 minutes in a dream matchup against the Magic. With Harden off the floor this season, Gordon has a 33% usage rate and is averaging 0.98 FP/min. Trevor Ariza is also viable, although he’s not going to see a major boost in usage with Harden out. Ryan Anderson plays well on the road, he is facing his former team, and he is only $4,300 on FanDuel.

I rarely go all in on a player as inconsistent as Clint Capela, but I will be making an exception tonight. The Magic are the worst rebounding team in basketball and are ranked 23rd against centers this season. Bismack Biyombo is known as a good defender, but that hasn’t been the case this season if you look at his DRPM. Not only is the matchup in his favor, but Capela is averaging 1.45 FP/min this season when Paul is on the floor and when Harden is off the floor. If Capela plays 30 minutes tonight, I like his chances to put up 45+ fantasy points.

Notable Injuries

James Harden (Out)
Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 115.2 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (2 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (14 of 24)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ryan Anderson (DK), Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green (GPP)

Orlando Magic

The Magic have lost nine of their last ten games, but are still one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. While they do get involved in far too many blowouts, they love to push the tempo and they put forth much effort on the defensive end of the floor. They draw a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Rockets, who are ranked eighth in pace of play and 21st in points allowed per game. The Magic have an implied total of 105.8 points, which is a point higher than their season average.

Elfrid Payton draws a difficult matchup against Chris Paul, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball. While I won’t be looking Elf’s way in cash games, he is still on my radar for tournaments on DraftKings ($6,900). With Nikola Vucevic off the floor this season, Payton sees a small usage bump and he averages 1.09 FP/min. Seeing as how I want to stack up the Rockets’ side of the ball, it makes sense to bring back the stack with a couple players from the Magic. Evan Fournier should see minutes in the mid-30s in a favorable matchup against Eric Gordon, who is not concerned with playing defense.

Jonathon Simmons is viable on DraftKings ($5,500), but he’s overpriced on FanDuel now that Fournier and Aaron Gordon are both back in the lineup. Speaking of Gordon, he has nearly as much upside as any power forward in the slate. There is a small concern that defending Ryan Anderson will pull him away from the rim and hurt his rebounding opportunities, but the fast-paced tempo of the game more than makes up for it. Gordon is an excellent tournament play, especially if you are stacking this game. Bismack Biyombo has really played well in Vucevic’s absence, but feels a bit overpriced for a 12-game slate.

Notable Injuries

None

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 104.7 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (12 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (11 of 24)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier (GPP), Aaron Gordon (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK GPP), Evan Fournier (Cash), Aaron Gordon (Cash), Jonathon Simmons (DK), Bismack Biyombo (DK)

New York Knicks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		210.5					Vegas Total		210.5
			Vegas Spread		9.0					Vegas Spread		-9.0
			Implied Team Total		100.8					Implied Team Total		109.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.2					Pace Projection +/-		-0.8
Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Lance Thomas	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	5	16	1	6		DvP	26	13	10	6	8
DRPM Rat.	8	15	1	21	9		DRPM Rat.	16	12	17	9	25

New York Knicks

The Knicks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Spurs last night in New York. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. The Knicks’ implied total of 100.8 points is the third lowest of the 24 teams in action tonight. It is also three points below their season average, so we can downgrade the Knicks’ offense as a whole.

There isn’t a ton to love from New York tonight, especially since this game has the potential to turn into a blowout (nine-point spread). When we have these big slates, we don’t need to take risks that don’t come with upside. A matchup against the Wizards doesn’t present that much upside, especially since the Knicks are appropriately priced across the industry. Courtney Lee, Kristaps Porzingis, and Michael Beasley are deep tournament darts at best. I will likely be avoiding the Knicks completely.

Notable Injuries

Ron Baker (Questionable)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (22 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (17 of 24)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and are right on the heels of the Pistons for fourth place in the Eastern Conference standings. Washington may not have the best matchup on the board, but they are playing at home, which always helps. Even though the Knicks are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency, the Wizards have an implied total of 109.8 points, which is 3.5 points above their season average.

As I often mention in the Grind Down, I’m more willing to play the favored team in a potential blowout. The upside is better and even if the game gets out of hand, it was likely thanks to the play of the starters in the first three quarters. This is a great spot for John Wall, as the Knicks are ranked 27th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. Wall would typically be an elite play, but I have a hard time clicking his name instead of Chris Paul’s. You can either play the two together or look to pivot to Wall off of Paul in large-field tournaments.

Bradley Beal is averaging 45 fantasy points over his last four games, yet his price on DraftKings has not adjusted. He is still only $7,700, which puts him on my radar in tournaments. Otto Porter is finally playing at a high level again, averaging 35 minutes and 36 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s a slightly better play on FanDuel, where we have to roster two small forwards and where we don’t have multi-position eligibility. I’m not too interested in Markieff Morris or Marcin Gortat, as the Knicks are ranked first and fifth in efficiency against power forwards and centers this season.

Notable Injuries

None

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.3 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (6 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (7 of 24)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall (GPP), Bradley Beal (DK GPP), Otto Porter (FD)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (Cash), Bradley Beal (DK Cash), Otto Porter (DK)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		-6.5					Vegas Spread		6.5
			Implied Team Total		110.5					Implied Team Total		104.0
			Pace Projection +/-		3.3					Pace Projection +/-		-1.3
Projected Starters	Tyus Jones	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Tyler Zeller
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	29	14	19	27	28		DvP	13	12	7	3	20
DRPM Rat.	4	19	3	22	16		DRPM Rat.	1	1	28	11	17

Minnesota Timberwolves

It’s hard not to like the Wolves tonight. They draw a terrific matchup against the Nets, who are ranked fourth in pace of play and 26th in points allowed per game. We don’t have to worry about a blowout, as the spread is set at 6.5 points. And the cherry on top is that Tom Thibodeau is willing to play his starters 35-40 minutes a night. The Wolves come into the game with an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and two points above their season average.

Tyus Jones has filled in nicely for Jeff Teague, but his salary is almost too expensive at this point. While I do love his matchup against the Nets and while his price point of $5,400 on DraftKings is appealing in tournaments, he’s my fourth or fifth favorite play from Minnesota tonight. Andrew Wiggins has played well without Teague this season (34 fantasy points per game) and is only $5,800 on FanDuel. There is no reason to hop off the Wiggins bandwagon tonight against the Nets. Anyone that is expected to play 40 minutes against the Nets should be on our radar, especially someone that is averaging 48 fantasy points over his last four games. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Jimmy Butler over both LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Taj Gibson’s playing time has not been impacted by the return of Nemanja Bjelica. As I often talk about, power forward is the thinnest position in NBA DFS and we have to roster two of them on FanDuel. Gibson is viable at a price of $6,000, as he provides a higher floor than most of the power forwards at his price point. Karl-Anthony Towns should get overlooked tonight, despite a matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 26th in efficiency and 28th in DvP against centers. I do prefer Clint Capela at a discount, but KAT is an excellent tournament play against Brooklyn.

Notable Injuries

Jeff Teague (Out)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 108.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (5 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (9 of 24)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andrew Wiggins (FD), Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tyus Jones (DK), Andrew Wiggins (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (Cash), Taj Gibson (FD)

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games, but draw an exploitable matchup tonight at home against the Wolves. On the season, Minnesota is ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. This game has a high total and a good chance of turning into a shootout. The Nets’ implied total of 104 points seems a bit low, but they have been playing at a slower pace over the last couple of weeks.

Caris LeVert is not expected to play tonight. While his absence doesn’t directly impact anyone in a significant way, we could see a few extra minutes for Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe, and Joe Harris. If Dinwiddie can crack the 30-minute mark, I like his chances to reach value at a discounted price point. Crabbe stands out as one of the top point-per-dollar plays at any position on DraftKings ($4,300). Harris is more of a deep tournament flier, but could end up playing minutes in the upper-20s.

DeMarre Carroll is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is able to suit up, I like him in tournaments at a very cheap price point. If he is unable to suit up, there would be even more minutes for Crabbe and Harris. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson grades out as an elite play on DraftKings ($6,500) and I actually don’t mind paying a premium for him on FanDuel given how thin the power forward position is. I have no interest in the Nets’ centers, as it sounds like Jahlil Okafor is going to crack the rotation tonight.

Notable Injuries

Caris LeVert (Doubtful)
DeMarre Carroll (Questionable)

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.2 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (16 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (18 of 24)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Allen Crabbe (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe (FD), Spencer Dinwiddie, DeMarre Carroll (if active), Joe Harris

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		196.5					Vegas Total		196.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		97.0					Implied Team Total		99.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.3					Pace Projection +/-		-1.6
Projected Starters	Ish Smith	Avery Bradley	Tobias Harris	Anthony Tolliver	Andre Drummond		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	Kelly Olynyk	Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	4	12	14	4		DvP	2	16	30	12	13
DRPM Rat.	21	23	7	11	1		DRPM Rat.	16	20	26	8	2

Detroit Pistons

This is one of the few games that I will have little to no exposure to tonight. While the spread is low, the total is set at 196.5 points. Both of these teams play at a slow pace and they are both top ten defensive teams when healthy. The Pistons come into the game with an implied total of 97 points. Not only is that the lowest of the slate, but it’s also five points below their season average. I’ve had a lot of interest in Ish Smith and Andre Drummond recently, but I have a hard time playing them on the road in a bad matchup in a 12-game slate. At similar price points, I would much rather play Ricky Rubio at point guard and Clint Capela at center.

Notable Injuries

Reggie Jackson (Out)
Stanley Johnson (Doubtful)
Avery Bradley (Probable)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 102.1 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.0 (24 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (20 of 24)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Miami Heat

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are finally starting to get healthy again. Hassan Whiteside is back in the lineup and it sounds like James Johnson is close to returning. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. Even though the Heat are playing at home, they still have the second lowest implied total on the board. The one and only player that I have interest in here is Whiteside, who played 28 minutes and scored 31 fantasy points in his last game. His minutes could creep up close to 30 tonight and he played very well against Drummond in their last meeting, scoring 43 fantasy points in just under 30 minutes.

Notable Injuries

Justise Winslow (Out)
Dion Waiters (Out)
James Johnson (Questionable)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (23 of 24)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (13 of 24)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (DK)

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