NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -8.5, 209.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Hornets Proj. Starters – Walker-Lee-Batum-Williams-Zeller
- Philadelphia 76ers Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Okafor
| Charlotte Hornets | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 209.5 | | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.0 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.70 | Team Pace | 100.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Courtney Lee | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Proj. Starter | Ishmael Smith | Nik Stauskas | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 15 | 28 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 13 | 13 | 22 | 24 | 11 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 30 | Last 3 Weeks | 2 | 4 | 26 | 11 | 7 | |
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 31-28 — Road: 11-19 — Last 10: 7-3
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.9 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.0 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 7.1 (4 of 22)
We have an exciting 11-game slate on tap tonight. I will try to keep the team analysis short and focus more on the picks so that it doesn’t take two hours to read the Grind Down. The Hornets have won seven of their last ten games and draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers. They are projected to score 109 points, which is 7.1 points higher than their scoring average.
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.0 (28 of 30)
The Sixers are always a popular team to target players against in daily fantasy basketball, especially when the spread is less than ten points. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. Give a sizable boost to the Hornets’ offense as a whole in this matchup.
- Injury Watch:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out)
Spencer Hawes (Out)
Elite Plays
| Kemba Walker | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,200 | Salary:$8,100 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.00 | FP/Min:1.06 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.0 | 37.2 | 1.2 | 36.7 | 0.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.9 | 38.9 | 3.1 | 36.1 | 0.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 23.0 | 23.6 | 0.6 | 22.3 | -0.7 |
I generally prefer to use Walker at home (averages five more fantasy points per game in Charlotte), but the matchup is too good to ignore tonight. He has been in terrific form over his last ten games, averaging 38.9 fantasy points per contest. He provides plenty of upside tonight against a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 24th against point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
| Nicolas Batum | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,200 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.85 | FP/Min:0.94 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.3 | 37.3 | 2.0 | 34.6 | -0.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 29.9 | 31.2 | 1.3 | 24.7 | -5.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.0 | 14.5 | -2.5 | 12.1 | -4.9 |
Batum broke out of his slump last night against the Suns, scoring 31 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action. There are a lot of great shooting guard plays at his price point tonight, so he’ll get overlooked by the masses. I prefer the likes of Will Barton, Zach LaVine, and Eric Gordon in cash games, but Batum provides massive upside for GPPs.
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 8-52 — Home: 5-23 — Last 10: 1-9
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 96.4 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.5 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (11 of 22)
The Sixers have lost nine of their last ten games and are listed as 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Hornets at home. While they do have the fifth lowest team total on the board, it is still 4.1 points above their scoring average.
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.1 (19 of 30)
The Hornets have really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor recently. They are now ranked ninth in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. If Jahlil Okafor is active tonight, this is a good spot to fade the Sixers as a whole. However, if Okafor is unable to suit up, it could open the door for a few Sixers.
- Injury Watch:
Jahlil Okafor (Questionable)
Hollis Thompson (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE – Unless Okafor is ruled out. If that’s the case, Jerami Grant is worth a look in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
NONE – Unless Okafor is ruled out. If that’s the case, Nerlens Noel and Robert Covington would become secondary plays.
Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Orlando -4, 210 Over/Under
- Chicago Bulls Proj. Starters – Rose-Moore-Dunleavy-Portis-Gasol
- Orlando Magic Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Hezonja-Gordon-Vucevic
| Chicago Bulls | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 210.0 | | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.80 | Team Pace | 97.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Derrick Rose | E’Twaun Moore | Mike Dunleavy | Bobby Portis | Pau Gasol | Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Mario Hezonja | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 10 | Opp. Season | 28 | 14 | 23 | 21 | 26 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 15 | 1 | 24 | 20 | 19 | Last 3 Weeks | 28 | 19 | 13 | 30 | 15 | |
Chicago Bulls
Record: 30-29 — Road: 11-18 — Last 10: 3-7
- Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (14 of 22)
The Bulls have lost seven of their last ten games and will look to end their slide tonight against the Magic. They are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back though, and Vegas has them listed as 4-point underdogs. The Bulls are projected to score 103 points, which is slightly higher than their scoring average.
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.1 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.0 (20 of 30)
The Magic have been an average team defensively, ranking between 14th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This is a decent spot for the Bulls’ offense as a whole. The one injury to monitor here is Taj Gibson. He hurt his hamstring last night and has been downgraded to doubtful. Derrick Rose will be a strong play moving forward, but I will be avoiding him tonight. Not only is he playing in a back-to-back situation, but there are a lot of great options at his position.
- Injury Watch:
Jimmy Butler (Out)
Taj Gibson (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
| Pau Gasol | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,300 | Salary:$8,700 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.21 | FP/Min:1.30 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.1 | 32.9 | 0.8 | 33.9 | 1.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.8 | 44.0 | 5.2 | 45.5 | 6.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 21.3 | 22.5 | 1.2 | 21.8 | 0.5 |
Gasol doesn’t get the recognition that he deserves in daily fantasy basketball. He has one of the highest floors of any center in the NBA and he has shown that he has 70 fantasy point type of upside. He already sees a boost with Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, and Nikola Mirotic out, and now Taj Gibson may be out as well. Gasol is an elite tournament play tonight and I don’t mind using him in cash games on sites that allow you to roster two centers.
| Bobby Portis | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,400 | Salary:$4,800 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.88 | FP/Min:0.94 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 17.7 | 24.4 | 6.7 | 24.7 | 7.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.7 | 22.5 | 6.9 | 22.9 | 7.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.1 | 17.5 | -0.6 | 16.9 | -1.2 |
Portis has played well over his last ten games, averaging 22.5 fantasy points in 24.4 minutes per contest. On the season, he is averaging 0.88 fantasy points per minute. Taj Gibson has been downgraded to doubtful, which means we may finally see what Portis can do with a full complement of minutes. If Gibson is ruled out, Portis would immediately step into the starting lineup and be asked to play 30+ minutes.
Secondary Plays
NONE
Orlando Magic
Record: 26-33 — Home: 16-15 — Last 10: 5-5
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.9 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 6.1 (7 of 22)
The Magic are 5-5 in their last ten games and we got a full heaping of “Skiles being Skiles” last night. Minutes are always a concern with the Magic players, but hopefully that won’t be an issue tonight. The Magic are projected to score 107 points against the Bulls, which is 6.1 points above their scoring average.
- Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.0 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.7 (25 of 30)
The Bulls have been atrocious defensively ever since Jimmy Butler went down. They have allowed at least 100 points in every game without Butler and they are now ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per game. Evan Fournier is not expected to play tonight, which should give a small minutes boost to Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja, and even Elfrid Payton.
- Injury Watch:
Evan Fournier (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
| Victor Oladipo | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,000 | Salary:$7,300 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.88 | FP/Min:0.96 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.0 | 37.1 | 5.1 | 34.8 | 2.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 28.2 | 31.3 | 3.2 | 30.0 | 1.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.6 | 18.8 | -0.8 | 19.7 | 0.1 |
After Skiles ruined a lot of hopes and dreams last night, the entire Magic team will likely see a dip in ownership. I’m willing to look past a single game though, as Orlando is in a good spot against the reeling Bulls. Oladipo has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 31.3 fantasy points in 37.1 minutes per contest. He also draws a nice matchup against E’Twaun Moore.
| Aaron Gordon | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,500 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.91 | FP/Min:0.96 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 22.7 | 29.9 | 7.2 | 29.9 | 7.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.6 | 32.8 | 12.2 | 31.8 | 11.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.7 | 16.2 | 1.5 | 17.5 | 2.8 |
Gordon didn’t play bad last night, but since he was playing with the other starters, he received the same treatment. He should be able to bounce back tonight against a depleted Bulls’ frontcourt that is ranked 21st against power forwards this season. Don’t hesitate to jump right back on the Gordon bandwagon tonight.
Secondary Plays
| Nikola Vucevic | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,100 | Salary:$8,000 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.09 | FP/Min:1.16 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.8 | 33.4 | 1.6 | 29.5 | -2.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 34.7 | 39.0 | 4.3 | 36.2 | 1.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.6 | 25.0 | 2.4 | 27.5 | 4.9 |
Vucevic is more of a tournament play for me tonight. His price is a little too high to use in cash games, but I expect his ownership to be down after last night’s dud. Vucevic has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 39 fantasy points per contest. He also draws one of the best matchups that a center could possibly have.
| Elfrid Payton | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,300 | Salary:$5,100 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.89 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 29.4 | 30.0 | 0.6 | 26.7 | -2.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.4 | 25.4 | 1.1 | 22.4 | -2.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.1 | 15.9 | -2.2 | 16.0 | -2.0 |
Payton is going to be less than 5% owned tonight. Point guard is always one of the deepest positions and with his minutes in flux, no one is going to use him. While I don’t like him for cash games, he is a terrific GPP play. The Bulls are awful at defending point guards and with Evan Fournier out, Payton could end up playing 30+ minutes tonight.
Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -6, 194 Over/Under
- Utah Jazz Proj. Starters – Mack-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Scola-Valanciunas
| Utah Jazz | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 194.0 | | Vegas Total | 194.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.40 | Team Pace | 95.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Shelvin Mack | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 18 | Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 4 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 21 | Last 3 Weeks | 18 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 15 | |
Utah Jazz
Record: 28-31 — Road: 9-19 — Last 10: 4-6
- Utah Jazz Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.0 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 94.0 (22 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (21 of 22)
This is one of those games that we can just gloss over tonight. The Jazz and Raptors have two of the best defenses in the NBA, which is why the total for the game is set at only 194 points. The Jazz are only projected to score 94 points, which is the lowest team total and the second lowest projected point differential on the board.
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.1 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.3 (5 of 30)
The Raptors have been stout defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With such a low team total, the Jazz are an easy team to avoid altogether tonight. Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, and Shelvin Mack have all been playing well, but they are overpriced for this matchup.
- Injury Watch:
Alec Burks (Out)
Trevor Booker (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Toronto Raptors
Record: 39-19 — Home: 21-6 — Last 10: 7-3
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.0 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (19 of 22)
The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and are now 39-19 overall. They are listed as 6-point favorites tonight against the Jazz in what should be the slowest paced game on the schedule. The Raptors are only projected to score 100 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board.
- Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.4 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.7 (2 of 30)
The Jazz continue to move up the defensive rankings. On the season, they are ranked third in points allowed per game and second in fantasy points allowed per game. With such a large slate on tap tonight, there is no reason to force anyone from this game into your lineup. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are affordable on DraftKings, but my plan is to avoid this game completely.
- Injury Watch:
DeMarre Carroll (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -4.5, 217.5 Over/Under
- Portland Trail Blazers Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| Portland Trail Blazers | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 217.5 | | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.5 | Team Proj. | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.70 | Team Pace | 101.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 27 | Opp. Season | 15 | 18 | 6 | 19 | 25 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 16 | 18 | 15 | 27 | 28 | Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 25 | 6 | 18 | 26 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 33-28 — Road: 14-16 — Last 10: 9-1
- Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.6 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.5 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.9 (13 of 22)
The Blazers have won nine of their last ten games, including an impressive blowout win over the Knicks last night. They travel to Boston to take on the Celtics tonight in what should be a good game environment for fantasy production. The Blazers are projected to score 106.5 points, which is 2.9 points above their scoring average.
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.8 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.0 (12 of 30)
The Celtics may be ranked third in defensive efficiency, but with their fast pace of play, they are a pretty mediocre matchup for fantasy production. This is a bad matchup for the Blazers though, as the Celtics are very good at defending opposing backcourts. The way to beat Boston is down low, but it’s hard to really trust any of the Blazers bigs given their limited minute upside. Damian Lillard, Mason Plumlee, and Ed Davis are decent tournament plays tonight, but I will be avoiding all three in cash games.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Boston Celtics
Record: 36-25 — Home: 20-10 — Last 10: 7-3
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 106.0 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 111.0 (3 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (9 of 22)
The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and are now 36-25 overall. They are listed as 4.5-point favorites tonight against the Blazers in what should be a fun game to watch. The Celtics are projected to score 111 points, which is the third highest team total on the board and five points above their scoring average.
- Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.7 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.1 (13 of 30)
The Blazers have been an average defensive team this season, ranking 14th in points allowed per game and 13th in fantasy points allowed per game. This seems like a great environment for fantasy production, but I’m having a hard time finding anyone that really stands out in this matchup.
- Injury Watch:
Kelly Olynyk (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Isaiah Thomas | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,800 | Salary:$7,400 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.08 | FP/Min:1.16 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.4 | 32.5 | 0.1 | 31.5 | -0.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.0 | 35.9 | 0.9 | 33.9 | -1.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.8 | 27.5 | 1.7 | 28.3 | 2.4 |
I have Thomas listed as a secondary play, but given his price on DraftKings ($7,400), he is certainly in play in all league formats. The Blazers have been much better against point guards over the last few weeks, but are still ranked 15th against the position on the season. Thomas comes into the game in great form, averaging 35.9 fantasy points in his last ten games.
New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -5.5, 219 Over/Under
- New Orleans Pelicans Proj. Starters – Cole-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Ajinca
- Houston Rockets Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Smith-Howard
| New Orleans Pelicans | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 219.0 | | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.8 | Team Proj. | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.60 | Team Pace | 99.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Norris Cole | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Alexis Ajinca | Proj. Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Josh Smith | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 22 | 30 | 30 | 16 | Opp. Season | 17 | 25 | 12 | 14 | 29 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 1 | 17 | 28 | 29 | 1 | Last 3 Weeks | 26 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 24 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 23-35 — Road: 7-22 — Last 10: 5-5
- New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.9 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.8 (11 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (12 of 22)
The Pelicans have been playing better basketball over the last month of play, but are still 12 games below .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Houston to take on the Rockets in a game that should be filled with fantasy goodness. The Pelicans are projected to score 106.8 points, which is 3.8 points above their scoring average.
- Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.0 (27 of 30)
The Rockets are always one of my favorite teams to target players against. They play at a fast pace, they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and they are usually competitive (which can’t be said about the Sixers, Lakers, and Suns). Anthony Davis says that he is 100% and that he’s ready to go tonight. He is officially listed as probable, while Bryce Desean-Jones and Omer Asik have both been ruled out.
- Injury Watch:
Anthony Davis (Probable)
Bryce Jones (Out)
Omer Asik (Out)
Elite Plays
| Eric Gordon | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,300 | Salary:$5,100 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.69 | FP/Min:0.75 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.4 | 33.8 | 0.4 | 33.8 | 0.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.0 | 40.6 | 17.6 | 40.6 | 17.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.2 | 26.0 | 8.7 | 26.0 | 8.7 |
The Pelicans wasted no time getting Gordon back into the mix of things. After an extended absence, Gordon played 34 minutes against the Wolves, scoring 40 fantasy points. With Bryce Desean-Jones out, Gordon should see minutes in the low to mid-30s again tonight against a Rockets’ defense that has struggled against shooting guards all season.
Secondary Plays
| Anthony Davis | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,200 | Salary:$10,100 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.24 | FP/Min:1.31 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.7 | 36.9 | 1.2 | 39.3 | 3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 44.2 | 47.7 | 3.5 | 57.1 | 12.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 24.6 | 27.2 | 2.6 | 28.5 | 3.9 |
Even though he has burned me time and time again, I have been one of the only Brow supporters that hasn’t jumped ship yet. We have seen flashes of his 2014-15 upside and he has really picked up his play overall ever since Tyreke Evans went down. While I love Davis in tournaments, I am planning a full fade in cash games. The injury risk is always there with Mr. Glass Pelican and he surprisingly hasn’t fared that well against the Rockets this season – averaging 38.1 fantasy points in three meetings.
| Jrue Holiday | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,700 | Salary:$7,800 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.07 | FP/Min:1.15 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 26.7 | 31.2 | 4.5 | 31.8 | 5.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 28.7 | 38.9 | 10.2 | 37.6 | 8.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 24.8 | 28.2 | 3.4 | 26.4 | 1.6 |
Holiday is producing at an elite level. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 38.9 fantasy points in 31.2 minutes per contest. His usage rate has been off the charts during that stretch, although it could come down a bit with Eric Gordon back in the lineup. Holiday is a little too expensive for me to target in cash games, but he makes a great tournament play in this uptempo game against the Rockets.
Houston Rockets
Record: 29-31 — Home: 16-14 — Last 10: 4-6
- Houston Rockets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.7 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 112.3 (1 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 6.6 (6 of 22)
The Rockets have lost four of their last ten games and are now two below .500 on the season. They have a chance to right the ship tonight against the Pelicans at home. The Rockets have an implied team total of 112.3 points. Not only do the Rockets have the highest team projection, but they also have the sixth highest projected point differential.
- New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.9 (21 of 30)
It’s hard to believe, but the Pelicans were actually a pretty decent defensive team last season. Those days are long gone though, as they are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. The Rockets have the highest team total on the board and there are three great fantasy options on my radar here.
- Injury Watch:
Clint Capela (Doubtful)
Ty Lawson (Out – Waived)
Elite Plays
| James Harden | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,700 | Salary:$10,400 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.24 | FP/Min:1.36 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 37.6 | 39.3 | 1.7 | 41.0 | 3.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 46.7 | 50.6 | 3.9 | 50.8 | 4.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.4 | 28.0 | 0.6 | 27.9 | 0.5 |
There are a lot of superstars in play tonight. If I had to narrow it down to my favorite two, it would be Harden and Chris Paul. Harden has averaged over 50 fantasy points per game in his last ten outings. He draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans and could end up playing close to 40 minutes.
| Dwight Howard | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,100 | Salary:$7,600 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.05 | FP/Min:1.13 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.6 | 35.8 | 3.2 | 35.8 | 3.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 34.2 | 37.4 | 3.2 | 37.2 | 3.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.4 | 17.1 | 1.7 | 18.0 | 2.6 |
Howard is slowly gaining traction in DFS, but for whatever reason, people have been refusing to play him. He has been one of the best centers in the NBA over the last two months and he is coming off of a ten game stretch where he averaged 37.4 fantasy points per contest. He should dominate the paint tonight against the Pelicans.
Secondary Plays
| Trevor Ariza | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,500 | Salary:$6,100 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.71 | FP/Min:0.77 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.9 | 37.2 | 2.3 | 37.6 | 2.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.9 | 30.2 | 5.4 | 36.3 | 11.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 13.6 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 13.8 | 0.3 |
Ariza has really played well recently, averaging 36.3 fantasy points in 37.6 minutes over his last five games. He is a streaky player and he is currently playing with a ton of confidence. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans. He is a borderline elite play in all league formats, although he’s my third favorite target on the Rockets.
