NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 23rd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 206.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 101.0 | Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -2.4 | Pace +/- | 5.7 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | Devin Booker | Marquese Chriss | Alex Len | Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jeff Green | Serge Ibaka | Nikola Vucevic | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 17 | 20 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 2016-17 | 27 | 15 | 28 | 28 | 15 |
Phoenix Suns
- Injury Watch:
Tyson Chandler (Doubtful)
T.J. Warren (Doubtful)
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.0 (17 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: -6.9 (23 of 26)
Pace of Play: 104.8 (1 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -2.4 (20 of 26)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.7 (12 of 30)
We have a MASSIVE 13 game slate on tap tonight. I’ll try to keep the team analysis to a minimum and focus more on the picks. The Suns find themselves in a pace-down game against the Magic, who are surprisingly ranked eighth in points allowed per game this season. Phoenix has an implied total of only 101 points, which is 6.9 points below their season average. Tyson Chandler and T.J. Warren have missed the last couple of games and both are expected to be out again tonight.
Eric Bledsoe has taken advantage of his increased role with Warren out, averaging 34.6 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 37% in his last three games. He is criminally underowned on a regular basis and makes a strong GPP play tonight against Elfrid Payton and the Magic. Brandon Knight has underperformed as a starter this season, but he has shown that he has 40-fantasy point upside and he is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Alex Len has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last three starts. As long as Alan Williams doesn’t turn into the hulk again, Len should play close to 30 minutes in a solid matchup against Nikola Vucevic. Speaking of Williams, he is still worth a look in tournaments, but there are better cash game options in a 13 game slate.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Bledsoe | $7,500 | $7,000 | $11,200 | 1.00 | 32.1 | -4.4 | 32.0 | 2.6 | 27.5% | 9.5% | 17 |
Brandon Knight | $4,500 | $4,900 | $8,200 | 0.79 | 24.9 | -1.4 | 19.6 | -1.0 | 26.3% | -1.0% | 20 |
Devin Booker | $6,100 | $6,200 | $10,400 | 0.80 | 33.3 | -7.5 | 26.6 | -5.5 | 27.1% | 4.7% | 13 |
Marquese Chriss | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,800 | 0.68 | 15.0 | 2.3 | 10.3 | -0.1 | 20.4% | 1.6% | 14 |
Alex Len | $5,200 | $5,100 | $9,100 | 1.00 | 22.4 | 3.7 | 22.4 | 6.0 | 16.7% | -1.8% | 16 |
Alan Williams | $4,100 | $4,200 | $6,800 | 1.32 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 17.9% | -1.6% | 16 |
Jared Dudley | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,600 | 0.70 | 25.2 | 2.1 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 14.4% | 2.3% | 14 |
Brandon Knight | $4,500 | $4,900 | $8,200 | 0.79 | 24.9 | -1.4 | 19.6 | -1.0 | 26.3% | -1.0% | 20 |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe (GPP), Alex Len
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (Cash), Brandon Knight, Devin Booker (GPP), Alan Williams
Orlando Magic
- Injury Watch:
Jodie Meeks (Out)
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 92.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (8 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: 13.2 (1 of 26)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (24 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 5.7 (1 of 26)
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 216.8 (28 of 30)
The Magic have been one of the most difficult teams to predict in the first month of the season. They randomly show up at times and seem disinterested in basketball at other times. They draw the perfect matchup tonight against the Suns, who are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. Orlando should see a nice boost in possessions and they come into the game with an implied total of 105.5 points, which is 13.2 points above their season average (highest differential in the slate).
I’m not a fan of targeting players from the Magic because Frank Vogel has a deep and inconsistent rotation. However, given their matchup against the Suns, we have no choice but to be interested. Elfrid Payton is one of my favorite GPP plays in the slate and you can even use him in cash games. He should be able to get into the paint and attack the rim at will. The Suns are ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Evan Fournier is a safe bet for 25+ fantasy points. He leads the Magic in minutes (34) and is second in true usage (23.9%). I’m having a hard time buying into the Serge Ibaka resurgence, although the matchup is certainly in his favor. I’d rather take a shot on the other big man, Nikola Vucevic. The Suns take a bit hit against centers when Tyson Chandler is out and we know Vucevic has big upside when given big minutes.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elfrid Payton | $5,700 | $5,900 | $9,800 | 0.86 | 30.0 | -1.6 | 25.8 | -2.0 | 23.4% | -4.6% | 27 |
Evan Fournier | $5,300 | $5,500 | $9,900 | 0.71 | 34.0 | 0.1 | 24.2 | -1.7 | 23.9% | 0.4% | 15 |
Jeff Green | $3,600 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 0.65 | 22.3 | 2.2 | 14.5 | -1.3 | 19.1% | -0.2% | 28 |
Serge Ibaka | $6,000 | $5,900 | $10,300 | 0.85 | 29.9 | 2.8 | 25.5 | 5.9 | 20.7% | 0.8% | 28 |
Nikola Vucevic | $6,300 | $5,800 | $10,500 | 1.06 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 28.7 | -1.4 | 24.2% | 0.9% | 15 |
Aaron Gordon | $4,700 | $4,600 | $8,600 | 0.77 | 27.0 | -2.8 | 20.8 | -7.2 | 19.6% | -0.1% | 28 |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Nikola Vucevic
Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 195.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 195.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -5.0 | Vegas Spread | 5.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 100.0 | Team Total | 95.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.6 | Pace +/- | -4.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Mike Conley | Tony Allen | Troy Williams | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Proj. Starter | Sergio Rodriguez | Gerald Henderson | Robert Covington | Ersan Ilyasova | Joel Embiid | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 25 | 14 | 29 | 12 | 28 | 2016-17 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Memphis Grizzlies
- Injury Watch:
Brandan Wright (Out)
James Ennis (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
- Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 97.4 (25 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.0 (20 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (7 of 26)
Pace of Play: 95.0 (28 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.6 (12 of 26)
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.1 (26 of 30)
The Grizzlies are the dinner rolls of Thanksgiving dinner. Some people like a roll with their meal, while others would rather save room for their turkey, mashed potatoes, and stuffing. With a matchup against the Sixers, you can certainly look to the Grizzlies tonight, but if you want to save your roster spots for the turkey and mashed potatoes, I fully understand. Memphis is one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, but draw a nice matchup against Philadelphia in a game that features a low spread of five points. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 100 points, which is 2.6 points above their season average.
James Ennis and Chandler Parsons are both expected to miss tonight’s game, which should result in huge minutes for both Tony Allen and Vince Carter. There are red flags with both, as Allen is constantly hurt and Carter is 75 years old. However, they are both viable punt plays at their respective positions and both could see upwards of 30 minutes. Mike Conley got his money in the offseason, but he has played well this season. He draws an excellent matchup against a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 25th against point guards. Marc Gasol is a top three option at center tonight when you factor in price. He is averaging 32.4 fantasy points per game this season and the Sixers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Conley | $7,100 | $6,900 | $11,300 | 1.04 | 32.6 | 0.3 | 33.8 | -3.0 | 28.9% | -5.7% | 25 |
Tony Allen | $3,900 | $3,300 | $6,800 | 0.73 | 22.4 | 0.8 | 16.3 | 1.7 | 17.1% | -0.6% | 14 |
Troy Williams | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 0.50 | 7.4 | -4.6 | 3.7 | -3.4 | 14.8% | 0.1% | 29 |
JaMychal Green | $4,300 | $4,200 | $7,200 | 0.65 | 28.2 | 2.2 | 18.4 | 6.9 | 15.0% | 0.2% | 12 |
Marc Gasol | $6,800 | $7,000 | $10,700 | 0.99 | 32.6 | -1.2 | 32.4 | -5.2 | 28.1% | -3.8% | 28 |
Vince Carter | $4,300 | $4,100 | $7,200 | 0.71 | 27.6 | -0.1 | 19.5 | -3.4 | 16.2% | 1.7% | 29 |
Zach Randolph | $5,400 | $5,100 | $8,900 | 1.14 | 21.9 | -0.8 | 24.9 | 0.0 | 30.3% | -2.2% | 12 |
Elite Plays – Marc Gasol
Secondary Plays – Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Vince Carter
Philadelphia 76ers
- Injury Watch:
Ben Simmons (Out)
Nerlens Noel (Out)
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 98.0 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.0 (24 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: -3.0 (20 of 26)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (12 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -4.1 (24 of 26)
- Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.8 (2 of 30)
The Sixers are that funky dessert that your aunt brings to dinner. Everyone is scared to try it, but they see a caramel drizzling on top that piques their interest. By now you should know that Joel Embiid is the caramel drizzle. He is hiding the ugly and disgusting dessert underneath. The Sixers draw an awful matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and fifth in defenisve efficiency. Philadelphia has an implied total of only 95 points, which is the third lowest in the entire slate. Embiid has shown that he can play well in difficult matchups (35 fantasy points against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat) and he has yet to score less than 20 fantasy points in his career. Even though I hate targeting centers against Marc Gasol, Embiid remains an elite play in all formats. Vegas expects this game to stay close and the only way that happens is if Embiid does Embiid type of things. The rest of the Sixers can be avoided.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sergio Rodriguez | $4,700 | $4,000 | $8,000 | 0.78 | 28.3 | -4.3 | 22.0 | -5.5 | 22.6% | -0.1% | 7 |
Gerald Henderson | $4,000 | $3,700 | $9,000 | 0.69 | 25.1 | -2.3 | 17.3 | 0.1 | 17.8% | -1.3% | 6 |
Robert Covington | $4,300 | $4,100 | $9,500 | 0.69 | 27.2 | -1.6 | 18.7 | -0.8 | 16.8% | 2.9% | 2 |
Ersan Ilyasova | $4,100 | $4,200 | $7,000 | 0.78 | 23.8 | 1.5 | 18.7 | 2.0 | 19.4% | -0.7% | 6 |
Joel Embiid | $5,800 | $6,000 | $8,900 | 1.37 | 22.2 | -0.2 | 30.5 | 1.3 | 35.7% | -3.8% | 1 |
Jahlil Okafor | $4,400 | $4,300 | $8,600 | 0.91 | 19.9 | 2.1 | 18.2 | -3.1 | 24.6% | -7.1% | 1 |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid
Secondary Plays – NONE
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 199.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 199.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -5.0 | Vegas Spread | 5.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 102.0 | Team Total | 97.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.6 | Pace +/- | -3.9 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Roy Hibbert | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 2016-17 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
San Antonio Spurs
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 102.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.0 (16 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (14 of 26)
Pace of Play: 95.2 (27 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.6 (12 of 26)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.2 (18 of 30)
Let’s see, who can the Spurs be at the Thanksgiving party? I suppose they can be the person that is dishing out the turkey that only gives each person one little piece. They aren’t allowing anyone to over-indulge in fantasy production with their slow pace of play and their shut-down defense. Tonight’s game against the Hornets should be a boring one, as these are two of the most efficient teams on the defensive end of the floor. The over/under is set at only 199 points, which is one of the lowest in the slate. The Spurs have an implied total of 102 points, which ranks 16th of the 26 teams in action. In terms of fantasy options, there are two decent plays in Kawhi Leonard and Pau Gasol. Leonard is a safe cash game target, but I have a lot of respect for the defenisve ability of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Pau Gasol minutes and production are both trending upward, but there are so many great centers in play tonight.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tony Parker | $4,600 | $4,300 | $7,800 | 0.74 | 25.9 | 0.7 | 19.1 | 9.4 | 21.7% | 3.2% | 19 |
Danny Green | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,600 | 0.68 | 25.4 | 2.6 | 17.2 | 4.2 | 12.5% | 0.3% | 10 |
Kawhi Leonard | $8,500 | $8,200 | $14,100 | 1.19 | 33.8 | 1.2 | 40.4 | 2.1 | 30.4% | -3.7% | 10 |
LaMarcus Aldridge | $6,900 | $6,400 | $10,900 | 0.94 | 32.5 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 8.7 | 24.5% | -1.1% | 14 |
Pau Gasol | $6,100 | $6,000 | $10,300 | 1.02 | 25.9 | 3.3 | 26.5 | 4.8 | 22.3% | 5.4% | 22 |
Patty Mills | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 0.77 | 23.9 | -0.8 | 18.4 | -2.6 | 20.6% | 2.4% | 19 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol
Charlotte Hornets
- Injury Watch:
Cody Zeller (Doubtful)
Frank Kaminsky (Questionable)
Jeremy Lamb (Probable)
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.0 (21 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: -7.7 (24 of 26)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (12 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -3.9 (23 of 26)
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.7 (7 of 30)
The Hornets are the cranberry sauce at the Thanksgiving table. That jiggly red sauce is a complete and easy fade for me. And this may be a hot take, but almost all sauce is a complete fade for me when it comes to food. The Spurs are one of the most difficult matchups in the NBA because they play at a slow pace and are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. If you look at the DvP chart above, you can see that the Spurs are ranked fifth or better in fantasy points allowed to every position except shooting guards. In the biggest slate of the NBA season so far, I will not be using any of my roster spots on the Hornets.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $7,800 | $7,600 | $12,000 | 1.20 | 33.1 | 1.1 | 39.7 | -4.1 | 31.5% | -0.5% | 5 |
Nicolas Batum | $6,400 | $6,100 | $10,700 | 0.91 | 34.0 | 0.1 | 30.8 | 0.1 | 21.3% | 0.6% | 24 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,100 | $4,700 | $8,600 | 0.78 | 31.8 | 2.0 | 24.7 | 1.8 | 13.4% | 2.1% | 1 |
Marvin Williams | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 0.73 | 28.3 | -0.7 | 20.7 | -6.1 | 18.2% | -0.4% | 5 |
Roy Hibbert | $3,500 | $3,000 | $7,600 | 0.77 | 14.9 | -0.2 | 11.5 | -6.5 | 15.6% | -7.9% | 8 |
Frank Kaminsky | $4,300 | $4,600 | $7,600 | 0.88 | 23.8 | 1.7 | 21.0 | 5.7 | 22.3% | -0.7% | 5 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 208.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 105.3 | Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 1.5 | Pace +/- | 2.9 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Dennis Schroder | Thabo Sefolosha | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Dwight Howard | Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Monta Ellis | Glenn Robinson III | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 23 | 25 | 2016-17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 9 | 4 |
Atlanta Hawks
- Injury Watch:
Mike Scott (Out)
Tiago Splitter (Out)
Kyle Korver (Out)
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.3 (10 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (12 of 26)
Pace of Play: 102.0 (6 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.5 (10 of 26)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.9 (24 of 30)
The Hawks had one of the worst performances that I have seen from any team this season. They left their turkey in the oven way too long and like the bird, they were toasted by the Pelicans. The craziest part of last night’s game was that Anthony Davis didn’t even play in the second or third quarters and they were still down by 30 points. From today’s fantasy perspective, the blowout is actually a good thing because their starters should be able to play a full complement of minutes tonight. The Hawks draw a favorable matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential.
This is expected to be one of the fastest-paced games of the night and while the total is set at 208 points, it seems a bit low. Dennis Schroder minutes have been inconsistent all year, but he should see 30+ minutes if tonight’s game stays close. He draws a favorable matchup against Jeff Teague and the Pacers. Kyle Korver has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which gives a nice boost to Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore. Both are viable value options at small forward tonight. Paul Millsap has scored at least 39 fantasy points in three of his last four games and should be fresh after playing only 23 minutes last night. Dwight Howard is an intriguing GPP play against a Pacers’ defense that is ranked 25th against centers. Howard is averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute, he just doesn’t have that elite minute upside like a Karl-Anthony Towns.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dennis Schroder | $5,500 | $5,600 | $10,400 | 0.87 | 29.4 | -3.1 | 25.4 | -7.6 | 27.9% | -2.4% | 23 |
Kyle Korver | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,300 | 0.62 | 27.8 | 4.2 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 15.0% | -2.3% | 16 |
Kent Bazemore | $4,900 | $5,700 | $8,900 | 0.79 | 27.8 | -1.9 | 22.1 | -2.6 | 20.3% | 2.6% | 16 |
Paul Millsap | $7,800 | $7,800 | $12,900 | 1.05 | 32.5 | -1.2 | 34.1 | 1.7 | 24.8% | -2.3% | 23 |
Dwight Howard | $8,100 | $7,700 | $12,500 | 1.28 | 27.8 | -1.6 | 35.5 | 0.4 | 21.1% | -1.4% | 25 |
Thabo Sefolosha | $4,400 | $3,700 | $6,000 | 0.82 | 23.9 | -1.2 | 19.6 | -7.5 | 14.5% | 0.3% | 16 |
Elite Plays – Thabo Sefolosha (DK)
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard (GPP), Thabo Sefolosha (FD), Kent Bazemore
Indiana Pacers
- Injury Watch:
C.J. Miles (Out)
Paul George (Questionable)
Kevin Seraphin (Questionable)
Jeff Teague (Probable)
Myles Turner (Probable)
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.8 (14 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (16 of 26)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 2.9 (6 of 26)
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.2 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.1 (8 of 30)
The Pacers are a big storm that rolls in the night before Thanksgiving. The storm is causing problems with everyone’s travel plans and we have no idea who is going to show up at the dinner table. Kevin Seraphin and Paul George are both questionable, C.J. Miles has already been ruled out, and both Myles Turner and Jeff Teague are probable. These injuries are going to impact the slate in a big way and it’s really tough to break down the fantasy options before we know who is going to be active. The key injury here is George. He is responsible for such a large portion of their production that if he is forced to miss another game, we can give a boost to the rest of their starters. Teague would be the biggest beneficiary, but Monta Ellis and Glenn Robinson would also see a nice boost if George is ruled out. While the matchup against the Hawks isn’t great on paper, the Pacers are still projected to score 102.8 points tonight and that production has to come from somewhere.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Teague | $7,000 | $6,900 | $10,400 | 0.99 | 31.9 | 1.4 | 31.6 | 8.0 | 26.8% | 1.8% | 17 |
Monta Ellis | $5,500 | $5,200 | $9,700 | 0.67 | 33.7 | -0.8 | 22.7 | -5.1 | 18.5% | 2.6% | 16 |
Glenn Robinson III | $3,700 | $4,700 | $6,700 | 0.62 | 16.4 | 19.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 15.9% | -0.6% | 16 |
Thaddeus Young | $5,700 | $5,800 | $9,900 | 0.79 | 30.2 | 2.9 | 24.0 | 2.8 | 16.3% | 3.0% | 9 |
Myles Turner | $6,200 | $6,500 | $11,000 | 1.05 | 28.5 | 6.3 | 29.9 | 1.9 | 19.8% | -1.1% | 4 |
Paul George | $8,600 | $7,800 | $13,200 | 1.04 | 34.7 | 36.2 | 26.2% | 16 |
Elite Plays – TBD
Secondary Plays – TBD
Portland Trail Blazers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 216.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 102.5 | Team Total | 113.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.8 | Pace +/- | 2.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Maurice Harkless | Ed Davis | Mason Plumlee | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 2016-17 | 12 | 21 | 16 | 29 | 27 |
Portland Trail Blazers
- Injury Watch:
Al-Farouq Aminu (Out)
Festus Ezeli (Out)
- Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (15 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: -5.4 (22 of 26)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (8 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.8 (11 of 26)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.1 (9 of 30)
The Blazers lost to the Knicks in New York last night and now have to play the second half of a back-to-back against the defending champs in Cleveland. This is a really tough spot for Portland and we do have to worry about a potential blowout here. The Blazers are listed as 11-point underdogs with an implied total of 102.5 points, which is 5.4 points below their season average. Damian Lillard has a decent track record against Kyrie Irving, but I don’t want to overpay for him in a potential blowout on a 13 game slate. C.J. McCollum has been close to matchup-proof, but if you are paying up at shooting guard, you might as well go up to James Harden or DeMar DeRozan, who are both in better matchups. Maurice Harkless is probably my favorite play here. He is worth a look at $4,500 on FanDuel where we have to roster two small forwards.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Damian Lillard | $9,000 | $8,600 | $13,800 | 1.11 | 35.4 | -2.4 | 39.4 | -5.9 | 32.7% | 0.5% | 14 |
C.J. McCollum | $7,500 | $7,400 | $11,000 | 0.98 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 33.7 | 0.9 | 27.3% | 1.3% | 16 |
Maurice Harkless | $4,500 | $4,900 | $7,800 | 0.68 | 30.6 | -0.1 | 20.7 | -2.5 | 15.5% | 3.0% | 20 |
Ed Davis | $3,800 | $3,200 | $7,400 | 0.70 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 11.2% | 0.8% | 2 |
Mason Plumlee | $5,300 | $5,500 | $8,400 | 0.95 | 26.7 | 2.2 | 25.5 | 3.2 | 18.7% | 0.2% | 11 |
Evan Turner | $4,100 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 0.71 | 24.2 | 0.4 | 17.2 | 2.6 | 18.9% | 0.3% | 20 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Maurice Harkless
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 113.5 (2 of 26)
Projected Point Differential: 4.9 (5 of 26)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (11 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 2.1 (8 of 26)
- Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.5 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 214.5 (28 of 30)
The Cavaliers have their own version of the big three of Thanksgiving foods. They have their king turkey in LeBron James. They have the mashed potatoes in Kyrie Irving. And then they have the stuffing in Kevin Love. The three foods are fine by themselves (especially the turkey), but when you bring them all together, great things happen. Tonight the Cavalier host the Blazers, who have been one of the best matchups in all of fantasy basketball. On the season, Portland is ranked eighth in pace of play and 28th in points allowed per game. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 113.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 4.9 points above their season average.
Even though this game has the potential to turn into a blowout, the spot is favorable enough that I’m willing to overlook it on the Cavaliers’ side of things. Kyrie Irving production is averaging 39.2 fantasy points in his last three games and draws a favorable matchup against Damian Lillard, who is more of a one-way player at this stage of his career (similar to Irving actually). LeBron James has one of the highest floors of any player in the slate and I feel comfortable using him as an anchor in my cash game lineups. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in eight of his last nine outings. Kevin Love should be stuffing the stat sheet (see what I did there?) against a Blazers’ frontcourt that is ranked 29th against power forwards and dead last in rebounding differential. I’m going to have a big heaping spoonful of stuffing tonight in tournaments.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyrie Irving | $7,600 | $7,600 | $12,000 | 1.04 | 33.8 | -2.0 | 35.3 | 3.9 | 31.8% | 1.1% | 12 |
J.R. Smith | $4,300 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 0.63 | 31.2 | -6.2 | 19.6 | -1.4 | 14.6% | -0.8% | 21 |
LeBron James | $9,800 | $9,500 | $14,800 | 1.28 | 36.2 | -3.1 | 46.3 | -3.3 | 32.1% | -1.1% | 16 |
Kevin Love | $7,800 | $7,700 | $11,900 | 1.12 | 32.3 | -0.6 | 36.3 | 0.5 | 26.5% | 1.3% | 29 |
Tristan Thompson | $4,900 | $4,900 | $7,500 | 0.84 | 28.2 | 0.8 | 23.6 | 5.9 | 8.3% | 2.4% | 27 |