NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 29th
Jump to Page 1 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 30 | 17 | 24 | 18 | DvP | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 23 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 28 | 30 | 28 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
We have ten games on tap tonight, so we will try to keep the team analysis to a minimum and focus more on the individual plays. The Thunder draw an exploitable matchup against a Magic team that is ranked 28th in points allowed per game this season. Oklahoma City’s implied total is the sixth highest on the board and seven points above their season average. Russell Westbrook has been firing on all cylinders recently, averaging 61 fantasy points over his last four games. The Magic do not defend point guards well and they don’t have an elite rim protector. We have another blowup spot for Westbrook and he could potentially be under-owned in a slate that features James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, and Joel Embiid.
Paul George couldn’t hit anything in his last game against the Mavericks (two actual points), yet he still finished with 35 fantasy points. His ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet is unmatched when you look at the other small forwards in this slate. He is priced up a bit on DraftKings, but very viable on FanDuel at a price of only $8,600. Carmelo Anthony is quietly averaging 33 fantasy points per game this season and is actually second on the team in true usage at 24%. His price has come all the way down to $6,200 on FanDuel. Steven Adams is one of the better value plays at center. He should play minute-for-minute with Nikola Vucevic and we know the Magic are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA (26th). I wouldn’t hesitate to play a few Thunder players tonight and you can even pair two of them together.
Notable Injuries
None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 102.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (6 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 7.0 (3 of 20)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,000 | $11,200 | $21,100 | 49.1 | 12.8 | 35.2 | 3.3 | 1.39 | 32.5% | 49.6% | 29 | 20 |
| Andre Roberson | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 14.1 | -0.1 | 24.1 | 5.3 | 0.58 | 8.0% | 52.3% | 30 | 28 |
| Paul George | $8,600 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 39.4 | 5.0 | 36.7 | 0.2 | 1.07 | 23.2% | 54.4% | 17 | 30 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,200 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 32.8 | -1.1 | 32.4 | 1.1 | 1.01 | 24.2% | 53.5% | 24 | 28 |
| Steven Adams | $5,600 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 29.4 | -4.3 | 31.2 | 0.7 | 0.94 | 13.1% | 65.8% | 18 | 6 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,500 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 18.4 | -6.9 | 22.6 | -5.5 | 0.81 | 14.6% | 58.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George (FD), Carmelo Anthony (FD), Steven Adams
Secondary Plays – Paul George (DK), Carmelo Anthony (DK)
Orlando Magic
The Magic have played well at home this season, but draw one of the worst possible matchups for fantasy production. On the season, the Thunder are ranked second in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Magic’s implied total of 103 points is considerably lower than their season average. Elfrid Payton is one of the most inconsistent point guards in the NBA, but his price is below $6,000 on DraftKings. I wouldn’t use him in cash games or even in single-entry tournaments, but he makes sense in a large-field GPP where you are trying to beat out 10,000+ entries.
Evan Fournier has not played well over his last four games, averaging only 19 fantasy points per contest. To make matters worse, he will likely draw the defense of Andre Roberson, who is arguably the best perimeter defender in basketball. Jonathon Simmons has been named the starter “indefinitely.” He didn’t play great in his start the other night, but saw 34 minutes which was encouraging. His price has yet to reflect his new role, so this could be the last opportunity to target him at this price point.
Aaron Gordon is one of those players that never quite lives up to the hype. After an amazing preseason, many expected him to have a breakout year. He has played well so far, but he hasn’t quite morphed into the superstar that many were hoping. In a difficult matchup against the Thunder, I will be avoiding him tonight in all formats. Nikola Vucevic has some tournament appeal on DraftKings. He typically plays 32-33 minutes in close games and is averaging 38 fantasy points over his last four games.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (13 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (16 of 20)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,300 | $5,900 | $11,300 | 26.8 | 7.0 | 25.8 | 2.4 | 1.04 | 21.1% | 51.6% | 3 | 1 |
| Evan Fournier | $5,200 | $5,600 | $11,400 | 28.4 | -9.4 | 32.0 | -1.6 | 0.89 | 20.9% | 58.8% | 2 | 1 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 20.9 | -2.4 | 25.2 | -0.1 | 0.83 | 21.5% | 58.2% | 4 | 1 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,700 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 34.1 | 2.6 | 32.3 | 1.9 | 1.05 | 18.4% | 62.6% | 12 | 10 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,200 | $7,300 | $13,300 | 35.2 | 2.6 | 29.7 | 1.2 | 1.18 | 22.0% | 55.2% | 23 | 5 |
Elite Plays – Jonathan Simmons
Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic (DK)
Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.3 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Dragan Bender | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 16 | 25 | 7 | 6 | DvP | 30 | 29 | 18 | 30 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 23 | 11 | 29 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 8 | |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns picked up a big win in Chicago last night, but now have to turn around and face one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, Detroit is ranked seventh in points allowed per game and 11th in rebounding differential. The Suns come into the game as double-digit underdogs with an implied total of only 102.3 points. While Devin Booker and T.J. Warren carry massive upside, I see this as a letdown spot for Phoenix. I’m worried about a blowout here and it’s not like we are missing out on much with a tough matchup against the Pistons. If you want to fire up Booker or Warren in tournaments, I won’t talk you out of it, but I will be fading the Suns as a whole. The risk doesn’t outweigh the potential reward in a ten game slate.
Notable Injuries
None
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (17 of 20)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 17.3 | 5.8 | 22.6 | 4.8 | 0.76 | 18.7% | 45.0% | 11 | 22 |
| Devin Booker | $6,900 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 35.1 | 0.4 | 33.6 | 1.6 | 1.04 | 26.8% | 55.7% | 16 | 23 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,300 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 31.9 | 1.6 | 31.2 | 6.6 | 1.02 | 22.6% | 54.1% | 25 | 11 |
| Dragan Bender | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 13.3 | -0.9 | 21.6 | 2.1 | 0.61 | 10.6% | 53.0% | 7 | 29 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 20.9 | 1.4 | 25.1 | -2.1 | 0.83 | 9.4% | 66.6% | 6 | 7 |
| Mike James | $4,400 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 22.5 | -0.8 | 23.0 | -2.1 | 0.98 | 24.4% | 47.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Monroe | $4,300 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 18.8 | 1.3 | 18.6 | 1.8 | 1.01 | 17.9% | 56.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons draw one of the top matchups on the board, as they face a Suns’ defense that is ranked third in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Pistons are typically on the lower end of implied team totals in any given slate, but they have the third highest tonight at 113.3 points. To put that into perspective, their implied total is 8.8 points above their average points per game this season. The only question is whether or not the starters will see a full complement of minutes in a game that features an 11-point spread.
The Suns are ranked dead last against point guards this season, so I want some exposure to Reggie Jackson and/or Ish Smith. Both players average close to a fantasy point per minute this season and with an 11-point spread, I’m giving the edge to Smith when you factor in salaries. Look at it this way — the worst case scenario is that Smith plays 18-20 minutes in a dream matchup. The best case scenario is that the game gets out of hand and Smith plays the entire fourth quarter. If that happens, we are looking at 25+ minutes against the worst defense in the NBA.
Avery Bradley price has come down to a playable level on FanDuel ($5,300). He’s still a difficult player to trust in a cash game setting, but we’ve seen his 40 fantasy point ceiling. Stanley Johnson is not a great per-minute producer in daily fantasy, but he’s basically locked into a 30+ minute role against the Suns, who play at a fast pace and turn the ball over at at high rate. If you need some salary cap relief at small forward, you can certainly do a lot worse than Johnson.
Tobias Harris provides nice upside at power forward and should get overlooked in all formats. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being the lowest owned of the Pistons’ starters. Andre Drummond is coming off of another monster fantasy outing, but I am going to sell high. The one position that the Suns can defend is center and I have a hard time paying a premium for a player in a potential blowout. Most of my center shares are going to a player whose name rhymes with LeFlarcus Gousins.
Notable Injuries
Jon Leuer (Questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 104.5 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 8.8 (1 of 20)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.1 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.4 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 28.1 | -2.9 | 28.0 | -1.0 | 1.00 | 25.2% | 57.0% | 30 | 28 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,300 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 25.3 | -4.7 | 31.8 | 0.6 | 0.80 | 21.4% | 53.9% | 29 | 29 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.5 | 1.5 | 30.1 | 2.7 | 0.58 | 12.8% | 48.1% | 18 | 29 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,700 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 29.8 | 1.8 | 33.2 | 0.2 | 0.90 | 21.4% | 58.8% | 30 | 30 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,400 | $9,200 | $16,800 | 43.0 | 1.0 | 33.4 | 0.5 | 1.29 | 17.7% | 57.1% | 16 | 8 |
| Ish Smith | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 18.7 | -1.6 | 19.7 | -0.4 | 0.95 | 24.8% | 53.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ish Smith
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tim Frazier | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 19 | 24 | 18 | 27 | DvP | 13 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 21 | 1 | 27 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 17 | |
Washington Wizards
If you played anyone from Washington last night, then you were likely burned. Their starters forgot to show up to the game and yet, they still managed to eek out a win over the Wolves on the road. Their bench showed up in a big way, but that’s more of an anomaly than anything else. Tonight they draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, although it’s worth pointing out that this is their second road game in as many nights. Washington’s implied total of 103.8 points is still fairly high for a team that is missing their best player in John Wall.
I have mixed feelings about Bradley Beal tonight. On the one hand, I using recency bias to my advantage in DFS. He was one of the highest owned players of the slate last night and he could barely muster up 21 fantasy points. His ownership will be drastically lower because of it. I’m more than willing to look past one bad game, especially since his usage and FP/min both spike when Wall is not on the floor. The issue is that I expect him to draw the defense of Robert Covington, who is right there with Andre Roberson as the top wing defender in basketball. I’ll take some shots on Beal in tournaments, but will likely end up fading him in cash games.
Otto Porter sees the biggest FP/min boost (+0.12) with Wall off the floor. If we assume that Covington is going to guard Beal, that leaves J.J. Redick on Porter. I love Porter’s chances in this matchup, especially when it comes to rebounding. He’s my favorite play from Washington tonight and I will be targeting him in all formats on DraftKings ($6,700). Markieff Morris hasn’t shown enough upside to warrant consideration in a big slate. Marcin Gortat is intriguing and should resume his 30-minute role as the starting center. They will need his size and defense tonight against Joel Embiid.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (14 of 20)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.4 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.7 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Frazier | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 14.0 | -1.7 | 17.1 | 1.0 | 0.82 | 14.4% | 47.9% | 16 | 1 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,300 | $8,100 | $14,700 | 36.8 | -2.3 | 35.3 | 1.5 | 1.04 | 26.3% | 56.9% | 19 | 21 |
| Otto Porter | $7,300 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 32.5 | 1.7 | 33.3 | 0.7 | 0.98 | 16.6% | 64.0% | 24 | 1 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 17.8 | -0.6 | 23.1 | 4.5 | 0.77 | 17.4% | 50.7% | 18 | 27 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,900 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 25.8 | -1.8 | 30.2 | -0.2 | 0.85 | 13.3% | 59.0% | 27 | 2 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 22.4 | 1.6 | 28.1 | -2.5 | 0.80 | 15.6% | 55.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Otto Porter (DK)
Secondary Plays – Otto Porter (FD), Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are playing in the front end of a back-to-back, as they take on the Celtics tomorrow. Tonight’s matchup is much more favorable than tomorrow’s, as the Wizards are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Philadelphia has an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the fifth highest on the board. The big question of the night is whether or not Ben Simmons is going to play. He has an ankle injury that continues to flare up and is shaping up to be a game-time decision tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Sixers sit him in one or both of their games in the next two nights.
If Simmons is active, I will likely fade him in all formats. Ankle injuries can easily be aggravated and we saw him leave the Cavaliers’ game early the other night. If Simmons is out, T.J. McConnell would likely draw the start at point guard and would immediately become my favorite value play of the slate. Simmons’ absence would also open up more minutes for Dario Saric, Robert Covington, and J.J. Redick. We need to take a wait and see approach on this one, but luckily this is one of the first games to tip off tonight.
The Sixers announced that they may play Joel Embiid in both sets of this back-to-back. This is troublesome from a fantasy perspective. I highly doubt they are going to play Embiid 32+ minutes in both games of the back-to-back. They could decide to limit him in one or both games, which makes predicting his fantasy production difficult. I still have some interest in Embiid in tournaments, but will be leaning on LeFlarcus Gousins at center.
Notable Injuries
Ben Simmons (Questionable)
Nik Stauskas (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (5 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (7 of 20)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $10,100 | $9,700 | $18,700 | 45.3 | -1.5 | 35.1 | 1.1 | 1.29 | 24.4% | 52.7% | 13 | 10 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,700 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 25.3 | 0.8 | 33.3 | -0.1 | 0.76 | 18.1% | 56.7% | 3 | 16 |
| Robert Covington | $6,200 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 30.0 | -3.9 | 31.2 | -0.5 | 0.96 | 16.1% | 62.7% | 28 | 1 |
| Dario Saric | $5,700 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 21.6 | 3.6 | 27.7 | 1.0 | 0.78 | 16.0% | 49.6% | 5 | 11 |
| Joel Embiid | $9,900 | $9,800 | $19,800 | 43.8 | -2.9 | 29.4 | 0.2 | 1.49 | 28.1% | 57.5% | 4 | 17 |
| T.J. McConnell | $6,400 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 24.8 | 6.4 | 0.90 | 15.8% | 57.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD
Secondary Plays – TBD
Miami Heat at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Miami Heat | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Bam Adebayo | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 12 | DvP | 10 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 21 | 24 | 17 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat are going to be without their big man tonight, as Hassan Whiteside is dealing with soreness in his knee. This should open up plenty of minutes in the frontcourt and also a lot of usage in the starting lineup. Miami draws a mediocre matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 14th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency. If we run the CourtIQ tool with Whiteside off the floor, we can see that Goran Dragic sees a small bump in both usage and FP/min. After a disappointing game against the Cavaliers, he has a good opportunity to bounce back against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 27th against point guards this season.
I typically play one to three lineups per site per night, so there usually isn’t room for Dion Waiters. While I don’t hate his matchup, there are a handful of other shooting guards that I would rather target in tonight’s slate. The same can be said for Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, who have very low usage rates in this offense. James Johnson could see a nice minute boost off the bench. He averages a fantasy point per minute this season and will likely be asked to defend Kristaps Porzingis. Bam Adebayo has played well in limited minutes this season and should draw the start at center. He’s an appealing GPP dart that could see minutes in the mid 20s tonight.
Notable Injuries
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.7 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.8 (6 of 20)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,900 | $7,600 | $14,000 | 31.0 | -0.1 | 33.2 | -3.4 | 0.93 | 23.8% | 57.5% | 27 | 11 |
| Dion Waiters | $6,000 | $6,400 | $13,100 | 25.0 | 1.9 | 31.5 | -0.5 | 0.79 | 23.8% | 49.0% | 15 | 21 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,300 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 18.8 | -8.2 | 32.5 | -3.0 | 0.58 | 13.4% | 46.4% | 15 | 24 |
| Justise Winslow | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.5 | -1.4 | 23.2 | -1.9 | 0.80 | 14.2% | 47.9% | 4 | 17 |
| Bam Adebayo | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 12.0 | 20.2 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 0.93 | 12.2% | 66.0% | 12 | 15 |
| James Johnson | $5,800 | $6,100 | $12,300 | 27.5 | -1.2 | 27.9 | -0.6 | 0.99 | 18.6% | 59.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,800 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 19.3 | -0.3 | 27.3 | -2.1 | 0.71 | 16.8% | 47.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (FD), James Johnson, Bam Adebayo
New York Knicks
The Knicks are looking to end a three-game losing streak tonight. They are catching the Heat at an opportune time, as this is their second game in as many nights and they will be without their star center, Hassan Whiteside. This is still far from an ideal matchup though, as Miami is ranked eighth in points allowed per game this season. The Knicks’ implied total of 100.5 points is the third lowest on the board. Jarrett Jack has played well over his last four games, averaging 22 fantasy points per contest. He’s not a terrible value, but I’d rather play Ish Smith against the Suns.
Tim Hardaway continues to impress, averaging 36 fantasy points over his last four games. His price on DraftKings is a bit prohibitive, but he stands out as one of the best point-per-dollar options on FanDuel. Enes Kanter will return to the lineup tonight, which should end the run for Kyle O’Quinn as a nice value play. For now, I will be avoiding both. The only other player of note from New York is Kristaps Porzingis, who has an elite true usage rate of 29.7%. He is averaging 45 fantasy points per game at home, his price is down across the industry, and he should benefit from not having Whiteside clogging up the lane.
Notable Injuries
Enes Kanter (Probable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.5 (12 of 20)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,700 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 18.7 | 3.5 | 26.5 | 2.9 | 0.71 | 15.8% | 46.2% | 10 | 23 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,100 | $4,800 | $10,200 | 24.9 | 6.2 | 32.9 | 2.0 | 0.76 | 15.2% | 59.5% | 11 | 10 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,100 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 31.3 | 4.8 | 34.3 | 3.3 | 0.91 | 22.4% | 53.5% | 14 | 2 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $8,900 | $8,200 | $15,900 | 43.1 | -3.3 | 33.1 | 1.7 | 1.30 | 29.7% | 57.6% | 21 | 5 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,400 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 29.4 | 1.9 | 26.2 | 5.4 | 1.12 | 17.5% | 66.7% | 2 | 25 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $4,200 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 20.4 | 5.4 | 16.9 | 5.2 | 1.21 | 15.7% | 57.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway (FD), Kristaps Porzingis (DK)
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (DK), Kristaps Porzingis (FD)
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Michael Carter-Williams | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 24 | 1 | 14 | 9 | DvP | 15 | 18 | 27 | 10 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 24 | 7 | 22 | 27 | DRPM Rat. | 17 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 9 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are going to be without their point guard tonight, as they take on the Raptors in Toronto. This is not an ideal matchup by any means, as the Raptors are ranked inside the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Hornets have struggled on the road all season (1-8) and are large underdogs with an implied total of only 98.5 points. Being able to adjust to injury news is critical in daily fantasy basketball, but we need to be careful not to overreact.
The masses are going to flock to Michael Carter-Williams and Nicolas Batum tonight, but I’m not sold on them being elite plays. MCW has never been shot the ball well and draws a difficult matchup against Kyle Lowry. Batum hasn’t played more than 28 minutes in over two weeks and he has yet to score more than 34 fantasy points. Now, that doesn’t mean that I will be fading both players completely with Walker out, but I certainly don’t consider them lock and load plays in a ten game slate.
If I’m not high on MCW and Batum, then you can probably guess how I feel about the rest of the Hornets. Jeremy Lamb and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are fairly easy fades on the road in a tough matchup. Dwight Howard has been terrific over his last four games and has played well without Walker on the floor this season, but we are dealing with a very small sample (30 minutes). I’m fine with Howard in tournaments, but with Charlotte’s struggles on the road, I’m worried that this could turn into a blowout.
Notable Injuries
Kemba Walker (Out)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (19 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -6.9 (19 of 20)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter-Williams | $5,200 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 15.3 | 2.2 | 15.4 | 1.9 | 0.99 | 18.4% | 41.4% | 4 | 8 |
| Nicolas Batum | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 21.9 | -5.6 | 25.2 | -3.7 | 0.87 | 20.8% | 47.9% | 24 | 24 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,100 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.5 | 2.3 | 25.0 | 6.6 | 0.74 | 14.1% | 51.5% | 1 | 7 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 18.2 | -0.7 | 25.6 | -0.1 | 0.71 | 12.9% | 60.0% | 14 | 22 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,200 | $7,100 | $13,000 | 33.9 | 8.3 | 29.7 | 0.2 | 1.14 | 19.5% | 56.0% | 9 | 27 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $6,300 | $5,500 | $12,000 | 29.8 | 5.5 | 28.9 | 0.7 | 1.03 | 22.4% | 56.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Michael Carter-Williams (DK)
Secondary Plays – Michael Carter-Williams (FD), Nicolas Batum, Dwight Howard (GPP)
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors and Hornets both have implied totals well below their season averages. That’s not exactly something that stands out when looking for a game to target in DFS. Toronto draws a mediocre matchup against a defense that is ranked 16th in points allowed per game and eighth in rebounding differential. I’m not going to have a ton of exposure to this game, but would rather target the Raptors’ side of the balle. Kyle Lowry has been playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 43 fantasy points over his last four games. Michael Carter-Williams isn’t a defender that we need to be worried about and Lowry always seems to carry low ownership in tournaments.
DeMar DeRozan was originally listed as questionable with a “knee bump,” but is fully expected to play tonight. He’ll likely draw the defense of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but his $7,100 price tag on FanDuel is awfully intriguing, especially if his injury is going to keep his ownership low. He’s in consideration for my main lineup on FanDuel and at the very least, I will have some DeRozan shares in tournaments. The only other Raptors’ player on my radar tonight is Pascal Siakam. He is still coming off the bench, but has averaged 25 minutes and 28 fantasy points over his last four games. His price on DraftKings ($3,800) vaults him to the top of my power forward rankings.
Notable Injuries
DeMar DeRozan (Probable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 109.6 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 (13 of 20)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,200 | $7,800 | $14,100 | 34.3 | 8.5 | 32.3 | 1.7 | 1.06 | 21.0% | 60.7% | 15 | 17 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $7,100 | $7,900 | $14,800 | 36.7 | -4.4 | 34.2 | -0.8 | 1.07 | 27.6% | 56.5% | 18 | 9 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 18.7 | 1.5 | 0.70 | 12.4% | 62.0% | 27 | 5 |
| Serge Ibaka | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 22.8 | -0.1 | 26.8 | -1.3 | 0.85 | 16.2% | 57.9% | 10 | 13 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 20.8 | -1.6 | 20.1 | -3.1 | 1.03 | 17.0% | 63.1% | 11 | 9 |
| Norman Powell | $4,600 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.5 | 6.1 | 23.3 | 3.6 | 0.79 | 17.4% | 54.5% | N/A | N/A |
| Pascal Siakam | $5,200 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 19.3 | 6.1 | 21.1 | 7.2 | 0.91 | 14.7% | 57.2% | N/A | N/A |
| C.J. Miles | $3,800 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 16.6 | -1.6 | 19.3 | 1.4 | 0.86 | 19.4% | 59.9% | N/A | N/A |