NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 29th - Page Two
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Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 23 | 29 | 19 | 10 | DvP | 21 | 13 | 16 | 2 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 2 | 27 | 4 | 30 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves and Pelicans are two teams that don’t mind getting into track meets, so we could see a very high scoring game if this one stays close. This is the second night of a back-to-back for Minnesota, but I’m not overly concerned, as they are one of the youngest teams in the NBA. Their matchup against New Orleans is one of the best on the board and I’m a bit surprised that their implied total is 2.2 points lower than their season average.
Jeff Teague was listed as the probable starter last night and even warmed up to play. He was eventually ruled out, but the Wolves may have decided to play him tonight instead of last night. He will likely be another game-time decision, which means we may not know his status at the time of lineup lock. I wouldn’t be surprised if he suits up tonight, so I will not be taking a shot on Tyus Jones unless we know that Teague is out for sure. In that instance, Jones would become one of the best values at point guard.
Andrew Wiggins and Jimmy Butler have both played well recently and both draw elite matchups against New Orleans. Targeting wings against the Pelicans has been a profitable strategy in DFS all season and we shouldn’t stray from what’s working. New Orleans is currently ranked 23rd against shooting guards and 29th against small forward. If we are being price-sensitive, it makes more sense to play Butler on DraftKings ($7,400) and Wiggins on FanDuel ($6,900).
Taj Gibson continues to be my go-to play at power forward. He is averaging 32 minutes and 26 fantasy points per game this season and his price never seems to go up. With Nemanja Bjelica questionable again, we could see another 35+ minute outing from Gibson. There is some concern that he could get into foul trouble, but the upside outweighs the risk. Karl-Anthony Towns has faced DeMarcus Cousins four times in the last two seasons and has yet to score more than 46 fantasy points. While I don’t hate his price on DraftKings, I’ll take my chances with Cousins in this one.
Notable Injuries
Jeff Teague (Questionable)
Nemanja Bjelica (Questionable)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 107.2 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (11 of 20)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 32.6 | 17.5 | 33.9 | 3.4 | 0.96 | 21.3% | 53.5% | 14 | 21 |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,600 | $7,400 | $13,700 | 34.8 | 5.1 | 36.3 | 0.2 | 0.96 | 21.7% | 52.9% | 23 | 7 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,800 | $7,000 | $13,500 | 30.1 | 2.7 | 36.8 | 2.6 | 0.82 | 21.4% | 52.1% | 29 | 26 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,100 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 26.2 | 7.7 | 32.2 | 6.4 | 0.81 | 12.6% | 59.3% | 19 | 2 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,500 | $8,700 | $16,000 | 40.8 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 3.4 | 1.17 | 20.8% | 61.7% | 10 | 3 |
| Tyus Jones | $5,300 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 12.9 | 17.2 | 17.1 | 13.3 | 0.76 | 12.4% | 50.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyus Jones (if Teague is out), Taj Gibson (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (DK), Andrew Wiggins (FD), Taj Gibson (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at a fast pace, they aren’t great defensively, and their offense is concentrated. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game this season. The Pelicans implied total of 110.5 points is the fourth highest of the slate. Rajon Rondo minutes have been down recently, but the Pelicans have been on the wrong end of a couple blowouts. Don’t be surprised to see him play 30 minutes tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 21st against point guards this season. Rondo offers nice value at point guard and is viable in both cash games and tournaments.
Jrue Holiday minutes and production are both down since Rondo entered the starting lineup. I will continue to avoid him until his price comes down. More often than not, I like or hate the matchup for both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. I typically have a tough time deciding which one of the two I want to target. It’s pretty clear for me tonight. Davis will have to deal with Taj Gibson, who is one of the best defenders in basketball at power forward. Meanwhile, Cousins gets to square off against Karl-Anthony Towns, who has the worst DRPM of any center in basketball. Not only that, but the Wolves as a team are ranked 25th in DvP and 24th in efficiency against centers this season. LeFlarcus Gousins is my favorite play of the entire slate.
Notable Injuries
None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 108.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (4 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (5 of 20)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $4,800 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 18.2 | 1.6 | 21.3 | 4.8 | 0.85 | 18.2% | 40.7% | 21 | 10 |
| Jrue Holiday | $6,800 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 31.2 | -1.4 | 36.0 | -3.5 | 0.87 | 19.4% | 52.9% | 13 | 2 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 20.6 | -5.3 | 30.5 | -3.0 | 0.67 | 14.5% | 58.5% | 16 | 27 |
| Anthony Davis | $10,800 | $10,800 | $19,900 | 50.5 | 0.3 | 36.0 | 0.1 | 1.40 | 23.3% | 65.0% | 2 | 4 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $10,900 | $11,000 | $19,300 | 53.3 | -10.3 | 35.3 | -5.6 | 1.51 | 28.4% | 57.2% | 25 | 30 |
Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, DeMarcus Cousins
Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis
Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.0 |  | Vegas Total | 222.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 117.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 22 | DvP | 20 | 12 | 2 | 26 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 8 | |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers come into tonight’s game as 12-point underdogs, which represents the largest spread of the slate. That’s not exactly great news for the fantasy production of the starters, as this game could be well in hand by the end of three quarters. The Rockets used to be a team that we could stream players against, but they have been surprisingly good defensively this season, ranking tenth in points allowed per game. The Pacers’ implied total of 105 points is nearly four points below their season average.
The only reason to get exposure to the Pacers tonight is if Victor Oladipo is ruled out. He missed one game with a knee injury, came back against the Magic, and is now listed as questionable for tonight’s game. This certainly seems like a good opportunity to give your best player some extra rest. If Oladipo does sit, Lance Stephenson would become an elite value play in all formats. He would likely see 30+ minutes and would potentially even play in garbage time. If Oladipo is still questionable at the time of lineup lock, I don’t mind taking a few shares of Stephenson in tournaments just in case he eventually gets ruled out.
Notable Injuries
Victor Oladipo (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.9 (15 of 20)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,400 | $6,000 | $12,100 | 28.2 | 1.6 | 31.8 | 0.8 | 0.89 | 18.4% | 58.1% | 7 | 4 |
| Victor Oladipo | $8,400 | $8,400 | $15,100 | 39.6 | 11.1 | 33.0 | -0.9 | 1.20 | 26.9% | 58.5% | 17 | 12 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,500 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.4 | 3.1 | 30.9 | 4.7 | 0.69 | 16.4% | 64.6% | 11 | 8 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,000 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 28.5 | 2.1 | 33.3 | 0.8 | 0.86 | 16.1% | 52.1% | 8 | 26 |
| Myles Turner | $7,000 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 31.4 | -7.0 | 28.7 | 0.3 | 1.10 | 18.1% | 56.0% | 22 | 4 |
| Lance Stephenson | $5,200 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 18.6 | 9.9 | 21.3 | 5.1 | 0.87 | 17.8% | 49.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lance Stephenson (if Oladipo is out)
Secondary Plays – None
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have won nine of their last ten games, they have the best record in the Western Conference, and they have the second best point differential in the NBA. They should be able to take care of business tonight at home against a Pacers’ team that could be without their best player. I’m concerned that this game could turn into a blowout, although the Rockets’ implied total of 117 points is awfully intriguing. Chris Paul has played 30 minutes in back-to-back games and he even saw some minutes in garbage time the other night. If he plays 30 minutes tonight, we have to like his chances to reach value again, especially at a price of $8,100 on DraftKings. Paul is still more of a tournament play, but this is the first time that I actually may play him since coming back from injury.
James Harden is one of the top overall plays on the board, but I have him ranked behind both Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins in terms of lineup priority. Harden will randomly play garbage time in blowouts every now and then, but that’s not something that I want to count on. He’s certainly viable in tournaments, but I’ll gladly take Cousins over him at a similar price point. After Paul and Harden, the only other play of note is Clint Capela. His minutes are always a concern, but Nene Hilario is questionable once again. We know that you can beat Indiana down low and Capela has 50 fantasy point upside at what should be sub-10% ownership in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Nene Hilario (Questionable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 113.7 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.0 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (4 of 20)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,700 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 38.1 | 1.5 | 27.9 | 0.5 | 1.37 | 22.4% | 52.6% | 20 | 10 |
| James Harden | $12,200 | $11,600 | $21,300 | 54.3 | 0.7 | 36.0 | -1.0 | 1.51 | 34.5% | 63.0% | 12 | 3 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 24.5 | -0.4 | 34.6 | -3.7 | 0.71 | 13.0% | 58.5% | 2 | 28 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,300 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 21.7 | -1.6 | 30.0 | -5.8 | 0.72 | 13.9% | 62.8% | 26 | 4 |
| Clint Capela | $7,600 | $7,400 | $14,000 | 34.7 | -1.9 | 25.7 | -0.3 | 1.35 | 16.7% | 67.7% | 28 | 8 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 19.4 | 0.1 | 27.9 | -1.4 | 0.69 | 9.1% | 56.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Eric Gordon | $4,800 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 26.9 | -12.6 | 31.9 | -4.7 | 0.84 | 23.9% | 55.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (DK), James Harden, Clint Capela (GPP)
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.0 |  | Vegas Total | 195.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.0 | Vegas Spread | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 93.5 | Implied Team Total | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Mario Chalmers | Dillon Brooks | Chandler Parsons | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 10 | 19 | 15 | 7 | DvP | 18 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | N/A | 1 | 3 | 13 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 15 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
We can save some time on this game, as we have two teams that are ranked in the bottom three in pace of play and in the top six in points allowed per game. The total is set at a measly 195 points, which is the lowest on the board. As large underdogs on the road in an awful matchup, it’s hard to get excited about any of the Grizzlies’ players tonight. The only exception would be if Mario Chalmers is ruled out. If that happens, Tyreke Evans would likely slide into the starting lineup and would have a shot at playing 35+ minutes. Chalmers’ absence could also give a small usage boost to Marc Gasol, but he doesn’t have the best track record against his older brother Pau. In their last three meetings, Marc has failed to eclipse the 35 fantasy point mark.
Notable Injuries
Chandler Parsons (Questionable)
Mario Chalmers (Questionable)
Brandan Wright (Out)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.8 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 93.5 (20 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (18 of 20)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Chalmers | $6,900 | $5,700 | $12,600 | 20.8 | 5.4 | 24.8 | 4.2 | 0.84 | 18.2% | 47.2% | 1 | N/A |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.5 | -4.8 | 29.5 | 0.6 | 0.63 | 12.8% | 53.0% | 10 | 1 |
| Chandler Parsons | $4,600 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 16.0 | 0.5 | 20.0 | 1.2 | 0.80 | 15.7% | 65.1% | 19 | 3 |
| JaMychal Green | $6,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.9 | 5.3 | 24.4 | 7.1 | 0.77 | 14.0% | 71.2% | 15 | 13 |
| Marc Gasol | $9,000 | $8,300 | $15,400 | 39.6 | -1.4 | 34.3 | 0.5 | 1.15 | 24.7% | 52.8% | 7 | 3 |
| Tyreke Evans | $7,500 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 31.5 | 1.0 | 28.4 | 2.2 | 1.11 | 25.6% | 58.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyreke Evans (GPP – if Chalmers is out)
Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (Cash – if Chalmers is out)
San Antonio Spurs
For all intents and purposes, we can pretend like this game is not on the schedule. We have two elite defenses in a ten game slate. We don’t have to look hard to find better matchups. The Spurs come into the game as 8-point favorites with an implied total of only 101.5 points. Tony Parker will draw another start at point guard, although he is still on a minute restriction. For now, all three of the Spurs point guards can be avoided. Kyle Anderson made the most of Rudy Gay absence the other night, but it appears that Gay will be back in the lineup tonight. LaMarcus Aldridge had a monster outing against the Mavericks, but now has to face a Grizzlies’ defense that is ranked ninth against power forwards and fifth in rebounding differential. In his last three games against his younger brother, Pau Gasol has scored 33, 17, and 20 fantasy points. No matter how you slice it, this is not a game that I want exposure to in DFS.
Notable Injuries
None
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (10 of 20)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $3,500 | $4,000 | $8,600 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | 0.0 | 0.85 | 25.3% | 42.9% | 18 | 1 |
| Danny Green | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 23.6 | 0.0 | 29.1 | -1.1 | 0.81 | 15.9% | 52.6% | 7 | 4 |
| Kyle Anderson | $6,100 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 26.3 | 7.8 | 27.8 | 2.5 | 0.94 | 14.9% | 56.4% | 5 | 14 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,700 | $8,100 | $15,400 | 40.3 | 0.1 | 33.1 | 1.2 | 1.22 | 26.1% | 57.3% | 9 | 26 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,600 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 29.9 | 2.8 | 25.5 | 0.3 | 1.17 | 19.0% | 60.4% | 8 | 15 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,900 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 23.3 | -2.0 | 22.1 | -1.1 | 1.05 | 22.2% | 55.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Patty Mills | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 19.3 | 2.9 | 26.3 | 0.9 | 0.73 | 18.3% | 48.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.0 |  | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Joe Harris | DeMarre Carroll | Trevor Booker | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 20 | 7 | 23 | 13 | DvP | 25 | 21 | 30 | 25 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 26 | 30 | 15 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 22 | 4 | 21 | 19 | |
Brooklyn Nets
Even though this is a pace-down game for the Nets, the Mavericks are still an exploitable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. Vegas seems a little more concerned about the pace than I do though, as the Nets’ implied total is eight points below their season average. I’m not saying the oddsmakers are wrong here, but I still expect the game to feature plenty of fantasy goodness, especially since Allen Crabbe and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are both doubtful.
Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute and leads all Nets’ starters with a 23% true usage rate. He’s played very well in his starts this season and he draws a favorable matchup against Dennis Smith, who grades out as one of the worst point guard defenders in basketball. Dinwiddie’s price feels expensive, but it’s justified given how well he has played recently. Joe Harris has played 33 and 28 minutes in his two spot starts and should see a similar allotment tonight. He’s not a core value play for me, but he’s certainly on my radar.
DeMarre Carroll missed the Nets’ last game with an illness, but is expected to return to the lineup tonight. He’s usually the first one on the bench in blowouts, but could end up playing minutes in the low 30s tonight with Crabbe and Hollis-Jefferson both doubtful. Carroll is an excellent tournament play that everyone will overlook. Caris LeVert also has some appeal as a low-owned tournament play. He should see 28-30 minutes and he had a huge usage rate the other night against Houston.
As I mentioned in the Grind Down, I thought Trevor Booker was a strong fade against the Rockets the other night. They were double-digit underdogs and I figured he would be the first to sit if the game got out of hand. He ended up being popular and he ruined a lot of lineups. His ownership should be deflated tonight, even though this is a much better matchup. The Mavericks are ranked 23rd against power forwards and 26th in rebounding differential this season. I’m all aboard the Booker bounce-back train.
Notable Injuries
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Doubtful)
Allen Crabbe (Doubtful)
DeMarre Carroll (Probable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.2 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -8.0 (20 of 20)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,000 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 26.9 | 3.8 | 25.6 | 4.8 | 1.05 | 22.6% | 53.2% | 23 | 29 |
| Joe Harris | $4,000 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 17.6 | 6.5 | 22.8 | 5.8 | 0.77 | 15.6% | 60.5% | 20 | 26 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 27.9 | 0.4 | 29.4 | 2.2 | 0.95 | 17.4% | 57.0% | 7 | 30 |
| Trevor Booker | $4,900 | $4,900 | $11,000 | 22.1 | 6.7 | 22.1 | 1.6 | 1.00 | 18.1% | 55.3% | 23 | 15 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 15.4 | -0.1 | 17.7 | 1.7 | 0.87 | 14.8% | 63.0% | 13 | 14 |
| Caris LeVert | $4,800 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 25.7 | 1.2 | 0.88 | 18.7% | 48.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP), DeMarre Carroll (GPP), Trevor Booker
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (Cash), DeMarre Carroll (Cash), Joe Harris, Caris LeVert
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks draw one of the best matchups possible, as they host the visiting Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked first in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The Mavericks have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and 8.6 points above their season average. As long as this game stays competitive (it should with a 5.5-point spread), it could be one of the best to target for fantasy production.
Dennis Smith has had an up and down rookie season, but he has a true usage rate of 27% and should see 28-30 minutes against one of the worst defensive teams in basketball. I will gladly take my chances with Smith here, even in cash games. He grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar point guard options of the slate. Wesley Matthews is a safe cash game play if you need the savings on DraftKings ($4,600). Harrison Barnes is averaging 34 fantasy points over his last five games and gets to face a Nets’ defense that is ranked dead last against small forwards. Barnes is a core play for me on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is a decent spot for Dirk Nowitzki and J.J. Barea, but both are better tournament plays than cash game options since they will both be limited to 22-25 minutes.
Notable Injuries
Nerlens Noel (Questionable)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.2 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 8.6 (2 of 20)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.5 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 26.3 | -0.4 | 28.5 | -0.9 | 0.92 | 27.2% | 46.1% | 25 | 8 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 22.6 | 0.7 | 34.9 | 1.7 | 0.65 | 15.2% | 52.8% | 21 | 22 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,500 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 30.9 | 2.7 | 35.4 | 0.6 | 0.87 | 21.7% | 53.5% | 30 | 4 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 0.58 | 10.9% | 57.4% | 25 | 21 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.2 | 7.5 | 24.8 | 2.3 | 0.90 | 18.2% | 54.7% | 30 | 19 |
| J.J. Barea | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 22.7 | 3.6 | 22.2 | 0.2 | 1.02 | 26.3% | 54.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Smith, Harrison Barnes, J.J. Barea (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki (DK), J.J. Barea (Cash)
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 223.0 |  | Vegas Total | 223.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -11.0 | Vegas Spread | 11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 117.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 5.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 25 | 3 | 22 | 24 | DvP | 12 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 1 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are expected to have both Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry back in the lineup tonight. At the time of writing this, the spread was set at 11 points, but now that Curry and Durant are expected to play, the line could move a couple of points. The Warriors draw a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked first in pace of play and 24th in points allowed per game. I have no issues with any of the big four from the Warriors tonight, but I don’t see any of them as core plays.
Lonzo Ball has actually been a decent defender this season, even though the Lakers are ranked 24th against point guards as a team. If I’m paying up at point guard, I’d rather spend a little more and go with Russell Westbrook over Stephen Curry. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green usage rate will both normalize now that Curry and Durant are back in the mix. This is still an intriguing spot for Green, but power forward is loaded with options tonight. As for Durant, I’ll give him a game or two before targeting him in DFS. He has only played in one of the Warriors’ last five games.
Notable Injuries
Kevin Durant (Probable)
Stephen Curry (Probable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 116.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.0 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (9 of 20)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.5 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,800 | $9,600 | $18,300 | 44.8 | -1.6 | 32.2 | -0.8 | 1.39 | 28.8% | 63.9% | 24 | 3 |
| Klay Thompson | $7,200 | $7,400 | $13,900 | 32.2 | 1.9 | 32.7 | -2.0 | 0.98 | 21.4% | 60.6% | 25 | 5 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,500 | $9,300 | $19,000 | 45.2 | -13.2 | 34.1 | -1.4 | 1.33 | 24.7% | 64.7% | 3 | 21 |
| Draymond Green | $7,800 | $7,300 | $13,600 | 34.1 | -2.2 | 31.2 | 0.8 | 1.09 | 15.7% | 57.2% | 22 | 5 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $4,000 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 14.6 | 6.9 | 14.6 | 1.6 | 1.00 | 13.4% | 56.8% | 24 | 11 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,700 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 17.8 | 3.2 | 25.5 | -1.3 | 0.70 | 11.3% | 57.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Omri Casspi | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 13.8 | 9.8 | 1.01 | 14.2% | 66.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant
Los Angeles Lakers
Even as double-digit underdogs, the Lakers are the more appealing team to target in this game. The Warriors are ranked inside the top five in defensive efficiency, but they play at such a fast pace that it hurts their points allowed per game (18th). The Lakers have an implied total of 106 points, which is the eighth highest of the slate. Right when it looked like Lonzo Ball was turning the corner, he came out and put up a dud against the Clippers. While he is too volatile to trust in cash games, he still offers plenty of tournament appeal. He’s at his best in the open floor and this game projects to be the fastest-paced game on the schedule tonight. At only $6,700 on FanDuel, I’m willing to give him another shot in tournaments.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been on a tear recently, but I have a hard time paying a premium for him. The same can be said for Brandon Ingram, who is priced at or above $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Larry Nance played 29 minutes in his first game back from injury and racked up 34 fantasy points. It’s hard to say if he’s going to play that many minutes moving forward, but it’s worth noting that Luke Walton has tightened his rotation in recent weeks. This is likely the cheapest we will see Nance for a while. Julius Randle still played 24 minutes even with Nance back in the lineup. Randle is a great per-minute producer and is worth a look in tournaments at a price of only $4,600 on FanDuel.
Notable Injuries
None
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (8 of 20)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.0 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $6,700 | $6,800 | $12,600 | 32.3 | 2.2 | 32.9 | 1.0 | 0.98 | 18.7% | 37.0% | 12 | 4 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,200 | $5,800 | $11,900 | 28.4 | 10.9 | 34.6 | 2.2 | 0.82 | 16.0% | 54.6% | 9 | 18 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,100 | $6,000 | $11,700 | 28.3 | 1.7 | 33.2 | -2.6 | 0.85 | 18.8% | 51.5% | 22 | 13 |
| Larry Nance | $4,900 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 26.3 | 7.3 | 23.9 | 5.8 | 1.10 | 14.2% | 63.8% | 28 | 1 |
| Brook Lopez | $4,800 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 27.1 | -6.7 | 23.6 | -3.4 | 1.15 | 22.1% | 54.0% | 21 | 1 |
| Julius Randle | $4,600 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 24.5 | 3.9 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 1.13 | 19.9% | 59.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.3 | -0.5 | 22.0 | 0.9 | 1.06 | 26.3% | 57.2% | N/A | N/A |