NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 9th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 201.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 201.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 99.3 | Team Total | 101.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -3.3 | Pace +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Kris Dunn | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Serge Ibaka | Nikola Vucevic | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 28 | 2016-17 | 18 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 29 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves dropped to 1-5 with a loss last night against a very beatable Nets’ team. Minnesota now has to play in the second half of back-to-back road games. I eventually expect this team to get rolling and a win tonight could be just the boost that they are looking for. The Magic aren’t anything special on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 25th in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. The Wolves do have a low implied total of 99.3 points, but that has more to do with the expected pace than it does anything else.
Kris Dunn was seeing the bulk of the point guard minutes with Ricky Rubio out, but some foul trouble and a big game from Tyus Jones shook up the rotation last night. Dunn should still be the start tonight against Orlando, but it’s hard to project him for 30 minutes after what we saw last night from his backup. Zach LaVine has struggled in his last three games and doesn’t exactly benefit from a slow-paced game. Andrew Wiggins broke out of his slump with 46 fantasy points last night, but he is too reliant on shots falling for his fantasy production. When points account for 78% of your fantasy production, consistency isn’t going to be your strong suit. Gorgui Dieng minutes have been trending in the wrong direction, while his price has yet to come down. Karl-Anthony Towns is really the only play of note from Minnesota. Nikola Vucevic is one of the worst low post defenders in the NBA and the Magic as a whole struggle on the glass. Towns remains an elite play at center, even in the back-to-back.
- Injury Watch:
Ricky Rubio (Out)
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.0 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.3 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (17 of 22)
- Minnesota Timberwolves Pace
Pace of Play: 99.1 (17 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 95.8 (19 of 22)
Pace +/-: -3.3 (18 of 22)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.4 (16 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kris Dunn | $4,800 | $5,500 | 0.77 | 23 | 1.6 | 17.6 | -1.1 | 18.3% | 0.2% | 18 | |
Zach LaVine | $5,900 | $6,300 | 0.75 | 33.6 | 0.3 | 25.1 | -6.5 | 22.0% | -3.2% | 9 | |
Andrew Wiggins | $5,900 | $6,000 | 0.87 | 33.8 | 0.3 | 29.5 | 0.0 | 28.5% | 1.6% | 11 | |
Gorgui Dieng | $6,000 | $6,400 | 0.88 | 29.4 | -4.6 | 26.0 | -9.8 | 16.2% | 1.3% | 15 | |
Karl-Anthony Towns | $8,700 | $8,500 | 1.12 | 34 | -0.5 | 38.1 | 4.9 | 26.2% | 3.2% | 28 | |
Tyus Jones | $3,500 | $3,000 | 0.84 | 21.2 | 0.8 | 17.7 | 1.0 | 18.0% | 0.5% | 18 |
Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns
Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins
Orlando Magic
The Magic are 3-4 to start the season, despite having a point differential of -9.1, which is the second worst in the NBA. Their wins have been by narrow margins and their losses have been blowouts. They haven’t been a great team to target for fantasy production thanks to a slow pace of play and an inefficient offense. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked at or above the league average in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Evan Fournier is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Mario Hezonja would likely slide into the starting lineup. There has also been chatter about a potential lineup change with Bismack Biyombo replacing Nikola Vucevic at center, but Frank Vogel said that he’s not going to make the change yet.
Elfrid Payton has really struggled in his last two games, failing to reach 15 fantasy points. Recency bias should cause his ownership to dip below 5% in all league formats, but the price is still high enough that I don’t have a ton of interest for tournaments. Aaron Gordon isn’t seeing the playing time that we were hoping, averaging less than 30 minutes per game. The only player that I am considering here is Mario Hezonja and that’s only if Evan Fournier is ruled out. In nine starts last season, Hezonja averaged 11.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.6 blocks/steals per game.
- Injury Watch:
Jodie Meeks (Out)
Evan Fournier (Questionable)
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 92.9 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.8 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 8.8 (12 of 22)
- Orlando Magic Pace
Pace of Play: 96.3 (25 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 95.8 (19 of 22)
Pace +/-: -0.5 (13 of 22)
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.2 (10 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elfrid Payton | $5,600 | $5,900 | 0.79 | 31.2 | -4.3 | 24.6 | -8.6 | 24.5% | -2.0% | 18 | |
Evan Fournier | $5,600 | $5,600 | 0.73 | 34 | -2 | 24.7 | -4.5 | 24.3% | -0.4% | 1 | |
Aaron Gordon | $5,800 | $5,600 | 0.87 | 29.6 | -1.1 | 25.9 | 2.0 | 20.1% | 0.0% | 20 | |
Serge Ibaka | $5,400 | $5,500 | 0.79 | 28.2 | -1.8 | 22.4 | -0.4 | 19.7% | -0.4% | 3 | |
Nikola Vucevic | $7,100 | $6,200 | 1.10 | 28 | -2 | 30.7 | -6.0 | 22.8% | -2.9% | 29 | |
Bismack Biyombo | $4,400 | $4,000 | 0.79 | 21.2 | 0.3 | 16.9 | 4.5 | 12.8% | -0.5% | 29 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Mario Hezonja, Bismack Biyombo
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks – 7:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 214.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 8.0 | Vegas Spread | -8.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 103.0 | Team Total | 111.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.0 | Pace +/- | 3.9 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Isaiah Whitehead | Bojan Bogdanovic | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Trevor Booker | Brook Lopez | Proj. Starter | Derrick Rose | Courtney Lee | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Joakim Noah | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 2 | 30 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 2016-17 | 22 | 27 | 27 | 22 | 29 |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets may not have the most talented roster, but they come to play each and every night. They picked up their third win of the season last night, which is more than the Pelicans, Wolves, Sixers, and Wizards combined. The Nets find themselves in a tough spot tonight though, as they have to face the Knicks in New York in the second half of a back-to-back. Jeremy Lin has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and the Nets announced today that they are going to release Greivis Vasquez. We should also keep an eye on Brook Lopez. The Nets have been resting him in back-to-back situations and he logged 27 minutes last night.
If this game stays relatively close, it could be a sneaky shootout. The Nets have an implied total of 103 points, which is above the average of the 22 teams in action tonight. Isaiah Whitehead has played well in his first two NBA starts, but isn’t seeing enough minutes to make him a viable option. Sean Kilpatrick has averaged over 30 minutes and over 29 fantasy points per game in his last three. He is basically playing shooting guard and the backup point guard role. His minutes should be secure even if the game gets out of hand. Trevor Booker is only averaging 26.6 minutes per game, but he continues to be productive at his price point. Justin Hamilton would become an interesting punt play if Brook Lopez is rested. Booker would also see a small boost in that scenario.
- Injury Watch:
Jeremy Lin (Out)
Greivis Vasquez (Released)
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (10 of 22)
- Brooklyn Nets Pace
Pace of Play: 103.5 (4 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 102.5 (3 of 22)
Pace +/-: -1.0 (14 of 22)
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.0 (22 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Whitehead | $4,400 | $4,000 | 0.68 | 17 | 5.9 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 22.6% | -2.3% | 2 | |
Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,200 | $4,500 | 0.73 | 28 | 2.8 | 20.3 | -2.3 | 21.0% | -2.4% | 30 | |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $3,900 | $4,100 | 0.60 | 26 | 1.1 | 15.7 | 8.2 | 12.8% | -0.5% | 29 | |
Trevor Booker | $5,300 | $5,200 | 1.07 | 26.6 | 1.9 | 28.4 | 0.3 | 17.1% | -0.4% | 16 | |
Brook Lopez | $6,900 | $6,400 | 1.04 | 25.6 | 2.7 | 26.7 | 8.1 | 31.4% | 2.3% | 6 | |
Sean Kilpatrick | $4,900 | $5,800 | 0.94 | 26.4 | 3.1 | 24.9 | 6.4 | 26.6% | 0.8% | 30 |
Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick
Secondary Plays – Trevor Booker, Justin Hamilton
New York Knicks
The Knicks “are who we thought they were,” only we aren’t “letting them off the hook.” They are 2-4 to start the season and their lack of spacing and shooting is evident. While those are viable concerns, we don’t care about the Knicks’ ability to win basketball games. We care about their fantasy production and the matchups don’t get any better than the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked fourth in pace of play and dead last in fantasy points allowed per game. The Knicks have an implied total of 111 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 8.8 points above their season average.
The question isn’t whether or not we want exposure to the Knicks in this spot, it’s how we are going to get it. Derrick Rose has played well over his last three games, but seems a bit too expensive in a full slate. Courtney Lee production is also trending in the right direction, but do we really want to play Lee in an 11-game slate? Carmelo Anthony seems to be the safest play in the lineup. He is coming off of back-to-back 40-fantasy point outings, he has a team-high true usage rate of 29.4%, and he is still priced under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Kristaps Porzingis is worth a look in tournaments on FanDuel at only $6,600. He’ll have a huge height advantage over Trevor Booker.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.2 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 111.0 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 8.8 (2 of 22)
- New York Knicks Pace
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 102.5 (3 of 22)
Pace +/-: 3.9 (3 of 22)
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 220.4 (30 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Rose | $6,300 | $6,300 | 0.91 | 32.9 | 1.8 | 29.9 | 4.2 | 27.4% | 0.4% | 22 | |
Courtney Lee | $3,900 | $4,000 | 0.56 | 31.2 | 3.8 | 17.6 | 5.6 | 14.7% | -0.4% | 27 | |
Carmelo Anthony | $7,500 | $7,600 | 1.00 | 33.9 | 0.2 | 33.9 | 3.0 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 27 | |
Kristaps Porzingis | $6,600 | $7,200 | 0.94 | 32.2 | -0.8 | 30.3 | 0.7 | 20.7% | -0.6% | 22 | |
Joakim Noah | $4,400 | $4,900 | 0.92 | 24.2 | 0.2 | 22.2 | -1.7 | 13.5% | -0.3% | 29 |
Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony
Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose, Kristaps Porzingis (FD)
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 210.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 11.5 | Vegas Spread | -11.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 99.3 | Team Total | 110.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 2.7 | Pace +/- | 0.7 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Sergio Rodriguez | Gerald Henderson | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Richaun Holmes | Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 21 | 22 | 30 | 27 | 9 | 2016-17 | 27 | 7 | 25 | 18 | 18 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers can be one of my favorite or least favorite teams to see on the schedule. It all depends on the situation. They come into tonight’s game as 11.5-point underdogs against the Pacers and they will be without their best player. Joel Embiid didn’t even make the road trip for this game. He’s not injured, the Sixers are just being careful with the future of their franchise. This game could easily turn into a blowout, but if the Sixers are able to keep it close, there should be a ton of fantasy production to go around. Both of these teams are ranked in the top half of the league in pace of play and both are bottom ten defenses.
The Sixers have an implied total of 99.3 points tonight. While that may not stick out when you compare it to the other totals, it sticks out when you compare it to their season average of 91.3 points scored per game. Sergio Rodriguez has been a consistent fantasy producer at point guard and is still priced affordably across the industry. I don’t see him as a must play, but if you land on him with one roster spot left, I’m certainly fine with it. Robert Covington has been a disappointment this season, but he could take on a bigger role tonight with Joel Embiid out. He’s a sneaky GPP play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Jahlil Okafor is still on a 24-minute limit, but he should be heavily involved while on the floor. Dario Saric, Ersan Ilyasova, and Richaun Holmes are all intriguing punt plays, especially given how bad the Pacers have been on the glass. All three could push for 25+ minutes.
- Injury Watch:
Nerlens Noel (Out)
Jerryd Bayless (Out)
Ben Simmons (Out)
Joel Embiid (Out)
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 91.3 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.3 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 8.0 (17 of 22)
- Philadelphia 76ers Pace
Pace of Play: 100.3 (14 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 103.0 (1 of 22)
Pace +/-: 2.7 (6 of 22)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.0 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.5 (25 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sergio Rodriguez | $5,400 | $5,500 | 0.87 | 29.7 | -1.3 | 25.8 | -2.7 | 24.4% | -0.5% | 21 | |
Gerald Henderson | $3,900 | $3,400 | 0.59 | 24.4 | -0.2 | 14.3 | 0.8 | 17.2% | 0.7% | 22 | |
Robert Covington | $4,400 | $4,400 | 0.61 | 27.9 | 0.3 | 17.1 | 1.7 | 13.6% | 1.5% | 30 | |
Dario Saric | $3,800 | $4,400 | 0.62 | 25.9 | -2.6 | 16.2 | -0.8 | 20.4% | -1.9% | 27 | |
Jahlil Okafor | $5,100 | $4,800 | 0.96 | 20.1 | 3 | 19.3 | 4.1 | 26.1% | -1.7% | 9 | |
Richaun Holmes | $3,600 | $3,600 | 1.00 | 14.3 | -5.9 | 14.3 | -3.4 | 17.8% | 5.5% | 27 | |
Ersan Ilyasova | $3,700 | $4,300 | 0.71 | 23.2 | 2.6 | 16.6 | 3.4 | 19.1% | 4.4% | 27 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Sergio Rodriguez, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Richaun Holmes, Jahlil Okafor, Ersan Ilyasova
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are 3-4 to start the season. While their offense has been firing on all cylinders (108.3 points per game), they are ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 28th in defensive efficiency. No matter how much talent you have offensively, you aren’t going to be a good team if you don’t put up better numbers on the other end of the floor. The Pacers draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers, but this game does have some serious blowout potential. Indiana is favored by 11.5 points. I typically try to avoid blowouts whenever possible, but the Pacers have the third highest implied total in the slate.
Jeff Teague is one of the many mid-range point guards that I’m not too bearish or bullish on tonight. If you want to play him, I have no qualms with it. He leads the team in true usage rate and the Sixers are ranked 27th against point guards this season. I’ve been off of the Monta Ellis train all season and that will continue until he takes on a bigger role in the offense. His true usage is sitting at a paltry 16.9%. Paul George has immense upside tonight, but paying up for superstars in potential blowouts can be risky. I see him as more of a GPP play. Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner are theoretically in great spots, but their minutes are trending in the wrong direction. For now, I will be avoiding both in cash games. C.J. Miles is averaging 28 fantasy points per game in his last three and his minutes should be secure regardless of how this game plays out.
- Injury Watch:
Rodney Stuckey (Out)
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 108.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.8 (3 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (3 of 22)
- Indiana Pacers Pace
Pace of Play: 102.3 (8 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 103.0 (1 of 22)
Pace +/-: 0.7 (10 of 22)
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.2 (28 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Teague | $5,900 | $6,200 | 0.88 | 29.1 | -3.1 | 25.7 | 1.0 | 27.3% | 1.6% | 27 | |
Monta Ellis | $5,500 | $5,400 | 0.69 | 32.3 | -4.5 | 22.2 | -2.2 | 16.9% | -4.5% | 7 | |
Paul George | $8,200 | $8,400 | 0.99 | 34.1 | -1.1 | 33.7 | -4.7 | 25.3% | -1.0% | 25 | |
Thaddeus Young | $5,500 | $5,700 | 0.81 | 27.7 | -4.6 | 22.3 | -8.0 | 15.5% | 0.4% | 18 | |
Myles Turner | $6,800 | $7,100 | 1.18 | 27.2 | -3 | 32.0 | -7.0 | 21.7% | 0.1% | 18 | |
C.J. Miles | $4,400 | $4,600 | 1.10 | 20.9 | 2.6 | 23.0 | 5.4 | 23.9% | 2.6% | 25 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Paul George, C.J. Miles
Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 193.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 95.8 | Team Total | 97.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 1.8 | Pace +/- | -6.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | George Hill | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 21 | 2016-17 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 12 |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are 5-3 to start the season and are a perfect 2-0 with Gordon Hayward in the lineup. They aren’t the most exciting team from a fantasy standpoint though, as they are ranked dead last in pace of play and 24th in points scored per game. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hornets in what should be a defensive battle. Charlotte is quietly ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Jazz are 2-point underdogs in a game that features an over/under of 193.5 points. The Jazz have an implied total of only 95.8 points, which is the lowest of any team in the entire slate.
The big question tonight is whether or not George Hill is going to suit up. If he is active, he immediately steps in and becomes a viable fantasy option again. If he is ruled out, Shelvin Mack would likely draw the start at point guard. Mack played 28 minutes the other night against the Sixers and would have likely played more if the game didn’t turn into a blowout. Mack would be an elite value play if Hill is ruled out. Rodney Hood has yet to see his usage go down with Gordon Hayward back, but I’m a little concerned moving forward. There are only so many shots to be had on the slowest-paced offense in the NBA. Derrick Favors is coming off of a 41-fantasy point outing against the Sixers. He should finally be able to log 30+ minutes and he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Injury Watch:
Boris Diaw (Out)
Alec Burks (Out)
George Hill (Questionable)
- Utah Jazz Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.4 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.8 (22 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (22 of 22)
- Utah Jazz Pace
Pace of Play: 93.5 (30 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 95.3 (21 of 22)
Pace +/-: 1.8 (8 of 22)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.9 (6 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
George Hill | $6,300 | $6,700 | 0.98 | 33.8 | -2.3 | 33.0 | -1.5 | 24.3% | 0.1% | 11 | |
Rodney Hood | $5,300 | $5,800 | 0.84 | 32.2 | -1.8 | 26.9 | 1.6 | 22.8% | -0.1% | 12 | |
Gordon Hayward | $7,200 | $6,800 | 1.00 | 32.9 | 0 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 32.6% | 0.0% | 15 | |
Derrick Favors | $5,800 | $5,800 | 0.94 | 23.5 | 4.3 | 22.1 | 4.1 | 23.1% | -0.3% | 2 | |
Rudy Gobert | $6,500 | $6,500 | 0.91 | 29.8 | -2.1 | 27.2 | -4.7 | 14.8% | -2.9% | 21 | |
Shelvin Mack | $3,900 | $4,000 | 0.67 | 18.4 | 2.4 | 12.4 | -0.3 | 24.2% | -2.9% | 11 | |
Dante Exum | $3,500 | $3,300 | 0.64 | 18.5 | 1.1 | 11.8 | -0.1 | 15.4% | -1.6% | 11 |
Elite Plays – Shelvin Mack (if George Hill is out)
Secondary Plays – George Hill (if active), Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have been mediocre offensively this season, but they have really gotten the job done defensively. Tonight’s game against the Jazz projects as the slowest paced game and the lowest scoring game in the slate. That’s typically a lethal combination when it comes to fantasy production. Not only will there be less possessions to go around, but both offenses could struggle from an efficiency standpoint. I don’t make a habit of targeting players against the Jazz in daily fantasy. Even though the Hornets are favored, they still have the third lowest implied total in the slate. There are two injuries to keep your eye on throughout the day. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Roy Hibbert are both questionable. Even if they are both ruled out, it doesn’t open up any viable options against the Jazz.
- Injury Watch:
Jeremy Lamb (Out)
Roy Hibbert (Questionable)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Questionable)
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.8 (20 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -7.6 (20 of 22)
- Charlotte Hornets Pace
Pace of Play: 101.4 (11 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 95.3 (21 of 22)
Pace +/-: -6.1 (22 of 22)
- Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.4 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 183.3 (2 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,000 | $7,000 | 1.15 | 32 | -2 | 36.7 | 1.3 | 31.1% | 2.2% | 4 | |
Nicolas Batum | $6,400 | $6,000 | 0.87 | 33 | 0.4 | 28.7 | 0.5 | 21.0% | -0.6% | 6 | |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,500 | $4,800 | 0.88 | 28.7 | -0.6 | 25.4 | -0.2 | 13.1% | -2.6% | 14 | |
Marvin Williams | $4,900 | $4,500 | 0.77 | 28.5 | -2.3 | 21.9 | -2.3 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 3 | |
Cody Zeller | $4,800 | $4,000 | 1.03 | 21.5 | 1.9 | 22.3 | 0.3 | 19.0% | -1.0% | 12 | |
Frank Kaminsky | $3,900 | $3,900 | 0.75 | 24.3 | 0 | 18.3 | -1.0 | 22.1% | 0.9% | 3 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 215.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 108.3 | Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.0 | Pace +/- | 0.9 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jaylen Brown | Amir Johnson | Tyler Zeller | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 1 | 27 | 16 | 13 | 27 | 2016-17 | 17 | 29 | 18 | 17 | 12 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have been a similar team to last season with one glaring difference – their defense. Boston still ranks above the league average in pace and they are averaging the fourth most points per game. The key difference has been defensively, as they ranked 28th in points allowed per game. That’s a far cry from last season when they were ranked inside the top ten in defensive efficiency. The Celtics draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards in a game that features one of the highest over/unders (215 points) in the slate. Boston has an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the sixth highest on the board.
The Wizards may be ranked first against point guards this season, but I chalk that up to a small sample size. It also has a lot to do with James Harden being listed as a shooting guard, so technically his production against the Wizards went down from the shooting guard position. John Wall has never been an elite on-ball defender and Isaiah Thomas has carved him up for 39 and 41 fantasy points in their last two meetings. Avery Bradley is averaging 36 fantasy points in 37 minutes per game this season. Even at his elevated price, we have to like him against the Wizards. Jaylen Brown has had mixed results in his first two NBA starts, but is an elite value play on FanDuel. The Wizards have struggled against wing players for years. Even with Al Horford out, I will likely be avoiding the Celtics’ frontcourt now that Kelly Olynyk is back in the mix.
- Injury Watch:
Al Horford (Out)
Jae Crowder (Out)
Kelly Olynyk (Probable)
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.2 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.3 (6 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (6 of 22)
- Boston Celtics Pace
Pace of Play: 100.5 (13 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 99.5 (13 of 22)
Pace +/-: -1.0 (14 of 22)
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.2 (19 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Thomas | $8,100 | $7,700 | 1.15 | 34.2 | 0 | 39.3 | 1.1 | 33.7% | 1.5% | 1 | |
Avery Bradley | $6,900 | $6,500 | 0.98 | 36.9 | 0.3 | 36.3 | -2.2 | 23.2% | 0.1% | 27 | |
Jaylen Brown | $3,700 | $4,500 | 0.77 | 20 | 1.5 | 15.3 | 3.6 | 18.5% | 2.0% | 16 | |
Amir Johnson | $4,200 | $4,600 | 0.87 | 21.3 | 2.4 | 18.5 | 6.3 | 15.8% | 0.1% | 13 | |
Tyler Zeller | $4,100 | $4,600 | 0.98 | 21.2 | 4.9 | 20.9 | 3.8 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 27 | |
Marcus Smart | $4,900 | $4,500 | 0.68 | 29.7 | 0 | 20.3 | 0.0 | 19.4% | 0.0% | 1 |
Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jaylen Brown (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown (DK)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have too much talent to be 1-5. They haven’t been particularly effective on either end of the floor, ranking 22nd in points scored per game and 19th in points allowed per game. They come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs against the Celtics in a game that has shootout potential. Boston is no longer an elite team defensively, as they are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 29th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in rebounding differential this season. The Wizards have an implied point total of 106.8 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 8.1 points above their season average.
John Wall is currently listed on the injury report due to an incident with bumping an official. It sounds like the league isn’t going to take any action against him, but if he did get suspended, Tomas Satoransky would draw the start at point guard. Assuming Wall is cleared to play, he makes a terrific option tonight against Isaiah Thomas and the Celtics. Boston could try to put Avery Bradley on Wall, but that would leave Thomas on Bradley Beal. Wall has an insane true usage rate of 35.6% this season and is one of the top plays at any position tonight. Beal has averaged 31 fantasy points in his last three games but should be defended by Bradley, who I have a ton of respect for defensively. I’d rather take a shot on Otto Porter, who is slated to match up against rookie Jaylen Brown. This is a great spot for the Wizards’ frontcourt. Boston is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA and both Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat have been playing huge minutes.
- Injury Watch:
Ian Mahinmi (Out)
John Wall (Probable)
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.7 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.8 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 8.1 (7 of 22)
- Washington Wizards Pace
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 99.5 (13 of 22)
Pace +/-: 0.9 (9 of 22)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.2 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.5 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.3 (24 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $9,100 | $8,600 | 1.25 | 34.5 | -0.4 | 43.0 | -2.5 | 35.6% | -2.9% | 17 | |
Bradley Beal | $5,600 | $5,800 | 0.76 | 34.8 | 0.7 | 26.3 | 5.5 | 24.1% | 2.8% | 29 | |
Otto Porter | $5,200 | $5,600 | 0.77 | 34.3 | 0.9 | 26.3 | -0.9 | 15.1% | -1.7% | 18 | |
Markieff Morris | $5,600 | $6,100 | 0.78 | 33.9 | 0.8 | 26.5 | 2.8 | 20.8% | 2.6% | 17 | |
Marcin Gortat | $6,000 | $6,400 | 0.83 | 36.2 | -1.5 | 30.0 | 2.0 | 13.7% | 2.4% | 12 |