NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 12
Hopefully everyone had an excellent holiday, or at least a better day than Tony Romo and Chip Kelly. I wrote a lot of words this week, so the intro will be brief. Aside from the Saints-Texans game, which appears to be the most popular candidate to shoot-out (and there may be merit to fading in spots, more on that below), the Chargers-Jaguars and Steelers-Seahawks matchups offer interesting game stack possibilities. That is where my focus will be while I’m stacking stuffing on top of turkey, to construct the greatest sandwich of the calendar year. Happy day-after-Thanksgiving, everyone.
On to the Week 12 FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $7,600 (No price change from Week 11)
With Thomas Rawls chalking-up the slate, Wilson is more of an afterthought than he should be. Despite quarterback and running back teammates essentially having a neutral correlation, most tend to avoid that style of stacking. This will leave Wilson’s ownership rate attractive, even though he’s coming off of his best game of the season. He can also be paired with Rawls, cutting the chalk for an affordable 27.8 percent of our budget. Assuming a minimum-priced kicker and mid-range defense, that leaves roughly $7,400 per player with which we can construct the meat of our lineup.
Wilson, whose price is down $1,200 from Week 1, faces a Steelers defense that’s allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game. He scored a season-high 25.4 FanDuel points last week on 24-of-29 passing, 260 yards, and three scores. He also ran nine times, his most since Week 4. The Steelers haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks, but they allowed 51 yards on nine Colin Kaepernick carries, and Johnny Manziel had a rushing touchdown called back. Pittsburgh blitzes on 40.2 percent of dropbacks (fourth-most), and their linebackers inhabit the bottom of the Tackle Efficiency standings. Last week, Wilson completed 11-of-11 attempts when blitzed, for 138 yards and three touchdowns, and he averages 10.1 yards per rush when blitzed versus 4.6 when on all other attempts.
QB Josh McCown – Cleveland Browns, $6,300 (-$300)
Few in Fantasyland shed tears over Johnny Manziel’s latest benching and Josh McCown’s re-insertion as the starter. He is more equipped to make Cleveland’s offense successful, which is what we care about. When these teams met in Week 5, McCown put up 35.48 FanDuel points in Baltimore, completing 36 of 51 pass attempts, for 457 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Of course, this matchup contains less scoring juice, mostly due to the Ravens’ offensive injury Armageddon. But while the game has a 41-point total, Vegas at least implies the 22 points for the Browns, and Cleveland’s primary method of moving the ball will again be through the air.
Baltimore allows the ninth-most passing yards, sixth-most passing touchdowns, has the 22nd-ranked coverage grade (-16.0), and gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While their pass rush is tied for 17th (+13.0), the Browns have the league’s best pass blocking (+19.2). The Ravens’ run defense ranks fourth (+43.1), they allow 3.7 yards per attempt (fifth-best), and Cleveland has the 26th-ranked rushing grade (-0.7). This game is more Duke Johnson (56 snaps, nine handoffs, eight targets in Week 5), than Isaiah Crowell (34 snaps, 13 handoffs, two targets). Most of the fantasy focus on will be on Gary Barnidge and Baltimore’s Buck Allen, but McCown deserves a second look.
RB Chris Ivory – New York Jets, $7,000 (-$200)
Ivory has been disappointing of late, averaging 2.7 yards per carry over his last five games and watching his salary drop $800. Of course, that last part is a positive now, since he’s the ninth-most expensive at his position and could conceivably wind up as the high-scorer in a tough slate for running backs. The Jets are at home, where Ivory averages 20.1 FanDuel points and has scored five of his six rushing touchdowns. The other one came in Miami, and the Dolphins are more than three-point underdogs this week. That should calm fears that the sometimes game-script-dependent Ivory will be marginalized by the presence of now-healthy passing-downs back Bilal Powell.
Between game flow concerns, a still-healthy price tag, and recency bias over his short-term slump, Ivory’s ownership percentage should be easy to swallow. He also averaged 2.7 yards per carry, often while playing through nagging injury, against the mostly tough run defenses of the Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars, Bills, and Texans. Conversely, the Dolphins allow 4.3 yards per carry, the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, the second-most rushing yards to the position, and their run defense ranks 28th (-23.4). In four games against PFF’s bottom-10 rushing defenses, Ivory has averaged 23 carries for 107.3 yards and 1.5 touchdowns.
RB Danny Woodhead – San Diego Chargers, $6,100 (-$300)
This is a “Woodhead week” if there ever was one, and there have been quite a few already this season. It doesn’t hurt our cause that the Chargers essentially remained on their Week 10 bye when Week 11 kicked off, and as a result, not many people will be looking Woodhead’s way when constructing lineups. He only had seven touches, which would be a far worse sign if his team had run more than 58 plays. San Diego tried to get Melvin Gordon going again, he stunk again, and the Chiefs wound up icing the game quickly.
Against Jacksonville, who allow a league-best 3.4 yards per carry and surrender the sixth-most plays in the NFL, the four-point-underdog Chargers’ offense will flow through their injury-depleted passing game. Among running backs, Woodhead is third in targets (54) and catches (46), his +7.6 passing game grade ranks second, and he is first in receiving yards (553). In San Diego’s three losses in which they were underdogs, Woodhead averaged 9.7 targets. The Jaguars allow running backs the fourth-most catches on a per game basis (6.5), as well as the eighth-most fantasy points.
RB Alfred Blue – Houston Texans, $5,900 (+$200)
This may be the least exciting play of the week, but Blue provides “next-most likely” game script exposure to what many people — myself included — believe will be an aerial circus. The Saints defense is brutal (-40.7; 29th), and Houston should have little trouble moving the ball. Standing apart from the crowd, and in position to benefit from touchdown-scoring variance — instead of going into full-tilt mode — may not be a +EV (expected value) play for cash games, but it can help win tournaments.
At 25.8 implied points, the Texans project to be one of Week 12’s highest-scoring teams. As a three-point favorite, the late-game script should be on their side. Blue is not special, but the Texans’ “lead back” just got 21 carries and 16.7 FanDuel points against a tough Jets run defense. If Houston likes him enough to keep New York honest, he’s sufficient to handle late-game volume. A little volume is all he needs against a Saints team best known for pass defense futility. Yet they also allow 4.9 yards per carry, 5.6 yards per carry to running backs since Week 4, and give up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Vegas thinks Houston will score several touchdowns, and if Blue steals one or two, his investors will rocket up GPP standings.
RB T.J. Yeldon – Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,500 (No Price Change)
Based on his low price and soft matchup, Yeldon should be popular. But with an average of 12 FanDuel points over his last three games, ranging from a high of 13.1 to a low of 11.2, his ownership level may be palatable. Yeldon is averaging 20.1 looks per game (carries plus targets), which ranks as the ninth-most of any running back who has played at least seven games. Those opportunities have been relatively consistent, with Yeldon seeing no fewer than 17 looks since Week 3. He is averaging more than four targets per game since then, keeping him relevant in negative game scripts.
Although the four-point-favorite Jaguars have just two more wins than the Chargers, they are one game out of first place, while San Diego is six games back. With Jacksonville projected to score north of 25 points, Yeldon’s chances of picking up is scoring pace look promising. He is the only running back with 50-plus-percent of his team’s red zone carries to not convert one (hat-tip to Rotoworld’s Graham Barfield), and the Chargers have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns (second most). Their run defense grades last (-53.8), they allow the most fantasy points to running backs, and they will travel cross-country for a 1 pm kickoff.
WR Odell Beckham – New York Giants, $9,100 (+$300 from Week 10)
We have not seen Beckham since he was essentially shut down for the balance of game with the Patriots after his opening-drive 87-yard touchdown. He caught just three of his next 11 targets, for 17 yards. Luckily, Malcolm Butler will be in Denver on Sunday, and Beckham will be in Washington. While he is expensive, Beckham is still $100 cheaper than when he wrapped up 2014. He is averaging 14.5 targets, 104.5 yards, and 16.7 FanDuel points in two games since going nuclear in Week 8 against the Saints. Beckham has not been extraordinary in his last two games, but he’s established a floor of nearly two-times his Week 12 salary, and the potential for a blow-up game is clear.
Washington’s 27th-ranked pass coverage (-23.0) and fading pass rush (-0.1 over the last month), is just the powder keg for Beckham to ignite. New York’s offense is churning out plays (fifth-most over the last month) and no-huddle snaps (48.9-percent; second-highest), while Washington has allowed the third-most plays over the past month and surrender the sixth-most points per snap. Their cornerbacks don’t shadow and Beckham will often avoid their only decent cover man, Bashaud Breeland – who, back in Week 3, he still beat for a touchdown on four catches, and 60 of his 79 receiving yards.
WR Antonio Brown – Pittsburgh Steelers, $9,000 (+$300)
Brown is the perfect blend of paying up to be contrarian, using an elite player in a negative matchup, and targeting the least-likely-to-be-owned option in a specific price tier. He is averaging 16 targets and 26 FanDuel points per game when Ben Roethlisberger plays, and those include two contests where his quarterback was injured or knocking off rust. The Seahawks rank 14th in pass coverage (-0.8), and Richard Sherman – who is the main reason folks are squeamish about rostering Brown – ranks 33rd out of 109 qualifying cornerbacks (+3.0). He remains excellent, but Brown has been better.
It is likely that Sherman, who has spent six percent of his snaps in the slot, will be shadowing Brown (17 percent slot rate). But with Pittsburgh moving Brown around often, it may be less complicated to have Sherman play a side. Pre-snap defensive confusion, especially when the Steelers use the no-huddle, has aided Brown. Roethlisberger is 37-of-55, with an 8.3 yards-per-attempt average, three touchdowns, three interceptions, an 88.3 quarterback rating, and a +1.5 PFF grade when targeting Brown after huddles. He’s 21-of-21, with a 17.4 YPA, two scores, no picks, a 150.5 QBR, and a +8.0 grade when throwing to Brown from the no-huddle.
WR T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts, $6,900 (-$300)
When one of the first things that stand out about a player is his price has dropped by $900 from the start of the season, at least we can be sure the ownership percentage will be low. The boom-or-bust Hilton has been more bust than boom of late, with just one (barely) double-digit FanDuel score since his Week 7 explosion. And even that performance was sparked by a pair of coverage busts, and came when Andrew Luck was still “healthy.” Hilton is a high-risk tournament play, but there is merit to taking a shot on him this week.
In his first two starts, Matt Hasselbeck targeted Hilton on 22 passes, before only looking his way four times last week against Atlanta. With Hilton in Desmond Trufant’s coverage for much of the game, that’s not surprising, as the Falcons’ cornerback leads the league in most coverage snaps per target (10.1). Hilton will primarily enjoy the loose coverage of Sterling Moore (-0.7 coverage grade; 58th-best of 111 qualifiers) when lined up outside (46 percent of routes), and Alterraun Verner (-3.2; 79th) when he’s in the slot (20 percent). With a hobbled Frank Gore facing a Buccaneers’ run defense that’s allowing 3.7 yards per carry (fourth-best), Hilton will once again be busy.
WR Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings, $6,600 (-$100)
Diggs averaged 18.53 FanDuel points from Week 6 through Week 8, but has posted 7.3 per game in three contests since. The first two of those were wins over the Rams and Raiders, during which the Vikings averaged 34 rushing attempts, 21.5 passes, and Diggs averaged 3.5 targets. In last week’s loss, however, Minnesota threw 37 passes and rushed 18 times. Diggs saw nine targets, which were his most since he got 12 in Week 8. The Vikings are two-point road underdogs against a Falcons team that boasts the 10th-best run defense (+22.3) and allows just 3.6 yards per carry (third-lowest).
Minnesota will pound Adrian Peterson for as long as they can, but even with him averaging 21.7 carries from Week 6 through Week 8, Diggs still had 6.3 catches, 110.7 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns on 10 targets per game. Diggs will also avoid Desmond Trufant on roughly 80 percent of his routes, and primarily see increasingly exposed rookie Jalen Collins, who has a -5.1 coverage grade in his last two games (94th of 98 cornerbacks). With a still-healthy cost, sexier wideouts in his price range, and a recent production dip, Diggs will be lightly owned. He is also an attractive pivot for folks who are fading Peterson.
TE Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals, $5,800 (-$100)
Eifert’s price drop after scoring two touchdowns is the fortuitous result of the Bengals playing in the late game last Sunday. It brings his three-week total to five scores, and his league-best 11 receiving touchdowns lead all tight ends by three. Eifert’s 16 red zone looks rank as the fourth-most of any receiver, and he’s been targeted inside the 10-yard line nine times (fourth-most). At the touchdown-dependent tight end spot, we are essentially shooting for scores – especially in tournaments – and Eifert is our best bet with Rob Gronkowski hamstrung by an injury-decimated supporting cast.
Of course, Eifert’s touchdown production is no secret, and his price won’t do much to drive down his ownership rate. Hopefully his matchup’s low projected point total (42), Eifert’s three-target Week 11 tying a season-low, and the Rams’ defensive reputation conspire to keep him only moderately popular. St. Louis allows just the 14th-most points to tight ends, but as defensive injuries have mounted, Browns, Bears, and Ravens tight ends have piled up 24 catches, 357 yards, and two touchdowns in three of their last five games. The “uncommon opponent” Rams are not the same defense on the road, and Andy Dalton should continue to feed Eifert high-leverage opportunities.
TE Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks, $5,500 (-$300)
People want to roster Graham like they want a hole in the head. Good. We can get a talented player at a minuscule ownership level during a week where few tight ends glaringly stand out, and we can do it at $1,400 less than he cost to start the season. Graham can also be paired with Russell Wilson in a game that has sneaky shootout potential and may skew pass-heavier than a quick glance would indicate. Of course, all of this means little if he doesn’t actually start producing fantasy statistics.
Graham only saw three targets against the 49ers last week, which was the second time he failed to reach six since his 12-target, eight-catch, 140-yard Week 6 performance. In that other low-target game, he saw five in another matchup against San Francisco. The Seahawks will need him more against Pittsburgh, and they allow the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, including touchdowns in back-to-back games. With Pittsburgh blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the league, and Wilson hot against extra rushers, it’s worth noting that Graham is his most-targeted option (19) against blitzes this year (14 catches, 149 yards, 1 touchdown).