NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 2
Perhaps it has always been this way, but it at least feels like we are more reliant on predicting game outcomes when setting lineups than ever before. The plague-like spread of committee backfields has certainly heightened the need to anticipate game scripts. Just ask the Doug Martin investors who watched him average 4.7 yards per carry on a meager 11 handoffs and sat on the sideline for the final 35 snaps.
Keeping likely game scripts in mind has become a point of emphasis for good reason. It is why we’re moving off of Chris Ivory this week, despite his strong paper matchup and still-cheap price. It’s also why we want running backs who survive on receptions when game flow goes sideways. Incorporating likely game pace into player selection is also important, and I pulled that into this week’s FanDuel tournament picks.
Last week turned out decidedly more good than bad, so let’s keep it rolling. We’re going back to the well on three players, one of which did not hit in Week 1. Both quarterbacks can stack with fellow Week 2 selections, and the top two running backs pair well with their respective defenses.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $8,500 (-$300 from Week 1)
Despite a matchup featuring the week’s third-highest projected points total, against a fast-paced opponent (30.2 percent Week 1 no-huddle; fourth-highest) who surrenders high snap volume (eighth-most in 2014; fourth-most in Week 1), and in a spot that typically boosts passing output (3.5-point underdogs), last season’s third-best fantasy quarterback may be getting overlooked. Marshawn Lynch’s matchup jumps off the page, but there’s room here for more.
Wilson’s career-high Week 1 pass attempts total was buoyed by the game going into overtime, but also by the Seahawks’ uncharacteristically elevated snap pace (26 seconds per play; eighth-quickest), and no-huddle rate (27.9 percent; fifth-highest). It wasn’t only a function of game flow, as Seattle dabbled with tempo right before halftime (four snaps), and majored in it after that (18 snaps) despite the game remaining tight throughout.
Wilson completed 91 percent of his no-huddle passes, with more than a full-yard boost to his yards per attempt average. Higher snap volume also gives Wilson more opportunities to use his legs against a defense that allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks last season. With new red zone weapon Jimmy Graham loosening things up down there, don’t be surprised if Wilson runs one in himself.
QB Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals, $7,800 (+100)
After posting the second-highest point total among quarterbacks, Palmer hasn’t gotten much attention this week. He only saw a meager price increase, despite a matchup with the Bears that sets up as a quick-paced aerial affair. Aaron Rodgers would have posted a more impressive yardage total in Chicago last week if the Packers weren’t so efficient that he only needed to throw 23 passes (30th-most).
The major worry for Palmer remains pass protection, as he is deadly when given time and typically struggles with pressure. He was hit once in Week 1, and faced pressure on just 26.5 percent of dropbacks (26th-most of 34 passers). The Bears didn’t hit Aaron Rodgers at all last week, their pass rush ranks 27th (-3.2), and the transition to a 3-4 defense continues to be a work in progress. However, the fact that Eddie Lacy didn’t trample them into the ground means Arizona probably won’t either.
With David Johnson expected to play a larger role, and Michael Floyd practicing in full, Palmer has more than enough weapons with which to attack Chicago’s weakness. There will be matchups to avoid – especially NFC West clashes — and times Palmer is too hobbled to trust. Until that point he will continue to offer underpriced access to an offense built around its well-stocked passing game.
RB DeMarco Murray – Philadelphia Eagles, $8,300 (-$200)
Murray’s Week 2 price (sixth-highest), and his national television rushing performance (nine yards on eight carries), should be enough to counteract the ownership-enhancing effect of Narrative Street. Or perhaps enough folks noticed that he still squeaked out a pair of touchdowns, saw five targets, and had supposed sidekick Ryan Mathews relegated to a bit role (16 snaps; six touches).
Either way, the Eagles are facing a Cowboys run defense that graded in the bottom-third last season (-23.4) and just allowed over four yards per carry to the Giants, despite Andre Williams’ best efforts to bring that average down. Philadelphia is a sizable home favorite against an offense that will run a questionable cast of characters at the strength of the Eagles defense, or throw to equally-suspect receivers.
Last year Dez Bryant beat Bradley Fletcher for three touchdowns, and the Cowboys won despite averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Unfortunately for Dallas neither will play, and they don’t have the firepower to take the Eagles out of a run-based script like the Falcons did. Reasons abound to ride Murray this week, and while “Chip wants him to stick it to his old team” is last on the list, use whatever rationale you need to get on the bus.
RB Lamar Miller – Miami Dolphins, $7,300 (No Price Change)
Miller was a disappointment last week, despite performing well on limited touches. He ranked ninth in both Elusive Rating and forced missed tackles per touch (0.29). He earned the 14th-best rushing grade (+0.5) and averaged 4.1 yards per carry. Unfortunately he only received 14 touches, including three in the first half. Game script was more to blame for his relative inactivity than the “Dolphins coaches won’t give Miller a heavy workload” narrative.
Miami only ran 55 plays last week, which had much to do with Washington’s tendency to suppress opponent snap volume. They allowed the fourth-fewest plays in 2014, and seventh-fewest the 2013. The Dolphins, who ran 65 plays per game a year ago, should see an uptick in snaps against a Jaguars team that surrendered 68 per game (fourth-most) and hit that number again in Week 1. With Miller still garnering 72 percent of Miami’s carries, workload worries based on Week 1 appear unfounded.
On a per game basis, the Jaguars allowed running backs the fifth-most rushing yards (109.4) and touchdowns (0.9), as well as the most receptions (6.2). While they held down Panthers runners last week, they did allow them seven catches. Miller had a 22 yard catch, and was heavily involved in the passing game during the preseason – including five receptions during Miami’s dress rehearsal. Expect a heavier workload, and lighter ownership.
RB Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons, $6,300 ($-200)
No, I didn’t type the wrong Falcons running back and know this might look ridiculous by Sunday night, if not already. I also think that Tevin Coleman is a fine play, but I’m not alone. The millions that watched them think that he looked better than Freeman on Monday Night Football. We all want the Falcons coaches to give Coleman five of Freeman’s 10 carries from Week 1, plus his four targets. We all wanted Andy Reid to throw Anthony Fasano off of Travis Kelce’s throne last September too.
Freeman earned a better pass blocking grade (+0.3 versus -0.1), passing game grade (+0.7 versus -0.3), and rushing grade (+0.2 versus -0.6). Freeman forced more missed tackles per touch (0.31 versus 0.10), and the coaches trusted him in the red zone for three carries and one target — while Coleman got one carry and zero targets. This is despite Coleman seeing 45 snaps, while Freeman was on the field for 28.
The Giants run defense did surprisingly well against the Cowboys, but covering running backs was another story (12 catches on 12 targets, for 131 yards). Their linebackers and safeties are a disaster. The Falcons can attack inside with the pass, but lack a viable receiving tight end. Freeman, like it or not, is the more likely receiving back and red zone option until further notice. We can wish in one hand, cry in the other, and see which fills up first – or throw a dart at the Falcons running back that nobody will own.
RB Danny Woodhead – San Diego Chargers, $6,200 (+$200)
Woodhead will be higher-owned after last week, but we’re going back to the well. He is still the 33rd-most expensive running back, despite scoring the fifth-most standard league points in Week 1 (FanDuel awards 0.5 point per reception). His passing game involvement mitigates the fact that the Chargers are road underdogs by more than a field goal.
Last season, the Bengals surrendered an average of 5.8 catches to running backs (fourth-most), for 51.6 yards (second-most). Last week, the Raiders targeted their backs 15 times, and watched them pile up 94 yards and two scores on 14 catches. Linebackers Vincent Rey (-0.6 Week 1 coverage grade) and Emmanuel Lamur (-0.7) combined to allow 11 catches on 11 targets, for 64 yards and a touchdown. Their 2014 coverage grades were -4.9 and -3.6, respectively.
When contrasted with Cincinnati’s already league-leading run defense grade (+8.2), and San Diego’s run blocking struggles (-5.4; 29th), we know how the Chargers will attack. While Woodhead did score both Week 1 touchdowns on the ground, we can bank on the persistent red zone involvement that saw him rank eighth in targets and first in receptions last year, as well as take every San Diego running back touch down there on Sunday.
WR Alshon Jeffery – Chicago Bears, $8,100 (-$300)
Editor’s Note: Jeffery (hamstring) was unable to practice on Friday. Be sure to track his status leading up to kickoff!
Despite talk of Jeffery being on a Week 1 pitch count, he played 78 percent of snaps and ran 37 routes. He wasn’t the worse for wear, and after practicing in full this week Jeffery’s snap count should rise. More encouraging were the 11 targets he saw, which tied for seventh-most among wideouts. For at least one week, it appears the Bears offense still flows primarily through their main horses.
Jeffery projects to be in the inconsistent coverage of Patrick Peterson all afternoon. After an abysmal first eight games of 2014, during which his -5.8 coverage grade tied for 93rd out of 107 cornerbacks, Peterson righted the ship (+2.8; tied for 24th best). However, his five positively-graded games came against the Seahawks twice, the Rams twice, and the 49ers – none of which featured a receiving threat of Jeffery’s caliber.
Of Peterson’s 15 touchdowns allowed over the last two years, 14 came courtesy of receivers (and two tight ends) that were six-feet or taller. From Rueben Randle, to Andre Johnson (twice), to Mike Preston – it appears Peterson has a type. With many still spooked about Jeffery’s health, we can expect Calvin Johnson to attract more attention for an identical price – despite being shadowed by superior cover man Xavier Rhodes.
WR John Brown – Arizona Cardinals, $6,200 (+$200)
Brown looked set for a much bigger day. Five of his seven targets, all of his catches and yards, plus his touchdown, came in the first quarter. Larry Fitzgerald and, oddly, tight end Darren Fells did the heavy lifting from the second quarter on. The Cardinals also had the ninth lowest time of possession and ran the ninth-fewest plays. The Saints did that to opposing offenses even before they made it a point of emphasis.
Facing the newly up-tempo Bears, who sported the third-highest Week 1 no-huddle rate (42.3 percent), will afford Arizona more opportunities and allow Brown to put together a complete game this week. He will mostly see Alan Ball, who allowed all four targets to be completed on Sunday, for 51 yards and two touchdowns. Ball earned a -1.2 coverage grade for that effort, and posted a -3.1 mark in seven games with the Jaguars in 2014.
When Brown flips to the right side, which he did on roughly every third route last week, he’ll match up with Kyle Fuller. The second-year cornerback earned a -2.2 Week 1 coverage grade and a -19.9 mark (105th of 105) over his final 10 games last season. The Cardinals primary means of moving the ball will be through the air against a defense whose pass rush already ranks sixth-worst, and was surprisingly competent against Green Bay’s running game last week.
WR Eric Decker – New York Jets, $6,000 (No Price Change)
It feels odd to recommend a receiver who is clearly the second passing game option in a run-heavy offense, coming off of a game in which he saw just three targets – even if he did score on one of them. But here we are. As touchdown underdogs, the Jets should be in a negative game script for most of the game, unlike last week when they were not forced to throw against the strength of the Browns defense.
Decker will be a focal point of New York’s offense on Monday night. Colts shutdown cornerback Vontae Davis will reportedly shadow Brandon Marshall, leaving the 6-foot-3 Decker to have his way in the slot with 5-foot-10 Darius Butler. That assumes Butler has put out the flames from last week, when he allowed six catches on six targets, for 119 yards, a touchdown, and a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating against the Bills.
With the Jets assigned a modest 20-point implied total, Decker’s ownership level should be low, despite his potential Monday Night Hammer status. He is priced cheaply enough to attract attention (31st-highest among wideouts), but Terrance Williams ($6,300), Donte Moncrief ($6,000), and Stevie Johnson ($5,700) are all in his range and have more buzz surrounding them.
WR Nelson Agholor – Philadelphia Eagles, $5,700 (+$200)
The rookie got erased on national television by Desmond Trufant, to the tune of one catch for five yards. Of course, Trufant is quickly becoming a shut-down cornerback, who last season graded out sixth-best of 108 (+13.5). Agholor is now off most radars, despite playing the second-most receiver snaps for the Eagles (59) and just four fewer than top wideout (and another strong Week 2 play) Jordan Matthews.
The rookie can be forgiven for playing a sacrificial lamb role, and should find Cowboys cover men more accommodating. If last week’s rotation holds, Agholor will run three of every four routes in Brandon Carr’s territory. Although he showed well against the Giants, Carr’s coverage grade (-9.3) ranked 95th out of 108 cornerbacks in 2014, and his time in Dallas has been marked by inconsistency.
Last season, while covering Jeremy Maclin — to whom Agholor has been compared in both style and role – Carr allowed seven catches on 10 targets, for 173 yards. That includes coverage busts of 58 and 72 yards. With Murray and Matthews drawing plenty of attention, and Zach Ertz tearing up the seam, Agholor will be in single coverage all game.
TE Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks, $7,100 (+$200)
Remember this guy? He’s the one that, when healthy, you couldn’t afford to not play. Seattle brought him in to solve their red zone issues, and he was targeted four times down there last week (tied for a Week 1 high), and eight times total (tied with Gronkowski). Lost in the 22 tight end touchdowns from Week 1, Graham did well. That is, he did well when not blocking. For our purposes, that’s a positive.
The Packers, who allowed 55 yards and a touchdown to Martellus Bennett last week, gave up the ninth-most yards to tight ends in 2014. Graham posted 59 yards and a score against Green Bay last year in New Orleans. On Sunday, when the Seahawks went no-huddle-happy in the second half, Graham saw seven of his eight targets and all of his red zone looks.
TE Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota Vikings, $5,100 (-$200)
The Vikings offense didn’t have many chances to fill the stat sheet, as their 54 snaps were the fourth-lowest Week 1 total. However, Rudolph’s seven targets tied for a team-high and ranked seventh among tight ends. It was similarly encouraging to see Rudolph release into a route on a vast majority of pass plays (34 out of 40), and not be forced to assist Vikings offensive tackles with their blocks.
The middle of Detroit’s defense is an issue from a coverage angle. They are missing their best linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and none of the backers who played in Week 1 earned positive coverage grades. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers completed 30 of 32 attempts between the hash marks, for 339 yards and two touchdowns. One of those scores went to tight end Ladarius Green, who piled up 74 yards in the game.