NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 7
To Gurley, or not to Gurley? That is the question when constructing tournament lineups this week. It is easier to fade popular options when they are expensive, or when we can pivot to similar players in equally enticing matchups. Neither is applicable to rumbling rocket ship Todd Gurley. He is an affordably-priced home favorite, coming off of a bye, and facing a league-worst Browns run defense that couldn’t hold the Broncos sorry rushing attack under 4.6 yards per carry last week.
Gurley shouldn’t be owned everywhere this week, but if we are creating multiple lineups, it would be insane to not have some exposure. In the likely event that he erupts, not benefitting from it could dig an insurmountable hole. There is no shortage of chalk on this week’s slate to fade, and Gurley’s price allows us to differentiate lineups in other creative ways.
On with the Week 7 FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Cam NewtonCarolina Panthers, $8,100 (+$100 from Week 6)
After going into Seattle and coming out with not only a win, but a top-12 fantasy quarterback day, people are talking Newton up for early-season MVP. That makes no difference here, other than to highlight that he should never be ignored as a tournament option, even when the matchup appears prohibitive. The Eagles are playing better defensively, but not well enough to fade
Newton in a week where there will be many more highly-owned quarterbacks, Carolina’s implied total is a relatively solid 24 points, and the Panthers will be running a bunch of offensive plays.
Carolina’s no-huddle rate in home games since Week 12 of last year is 30 percent. Since then, they are running 68 plays per game (second-most), and Newton is completing no-huddle passes at a higher rate, with a higher yards-per-attempt average, and better touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Eagles allow the most snaps in the league, and more plays mean more chances for Newton to run. He is averaging 10 rushes for 45 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game on the ground. It’s a continuation of last season, when he averaged 9.5 attempts, 53 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns over his last six games.
QB Philip RiversSan Diego Chargers, $8,000 (+$500)
Rivers’ price shot up and he will not be lightly-owned. After all, he did throw for 503 yards on 65 attempts last week. Yet he is only the eighth-most expensive quarterback, and he won’t be the most highly-owned one when we factor in Carson Palmer’s perfect matchup. Andrew Luck facing Drew Brees in a game with the highest projected total of Week 7 should also help take the edge off. Taking on the Raiders’ pass defense opens the possibility of Rivers, if not repeating last week’s nuclear numbers, then at least approaching his 28.12 FanDuel points from Week 6.
Oakland’s run defense allows just 3.6 yards per carry (ninth-fewest) and its grade is up to 12th (+8.9) after a slow start. San Diego’s rushing offense ranks 30th, they average 3.6 yards per carry (fourth-fewest), and Melvin Gordon finally landed on the bench. The Raiders rank 28th in pass coverage (-16.4), allow the second-most passing yards per game, and couldn’t stick with a tight end if they had one on a leash. The Chargers, who have two good tight ends, rank second in plays-per-game (70.2) and sixth in no-huddle rate (20 percent). Rivers will be throwing…a lot.
RB LeSean McCoyBuffalo Bills, $7,700 (+$700)
McCoy has not been very popular in most fantasy circles, and after seeing the largest price jump from Week 6 among running backs, that will continue. He is also in range of far hotter names who play in the main Week 7 slate, like Chris Ivory ($7,800), Mark Ingram ($7,600), and Gurley ($7,400). They are all attractive plays who will likely be more highly-owned, even when the stand-alone London game is factored in. If you do decide to get exposure to the early contest, McCoy will be worth getting out of bed early for.
The four-point-underdog Jaguars allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, the fifth-most receptions to the position (7.2 per game), and their run defense grades seventh-worst (-12.2). Last week, McCoy easily saw his highest snap percentage of 2015 (81.7). He had a season-high 90 yards on 17 carries, one touchdown, three forced missed tackles, and three passing targets. His backup, Karlos Williams, is still out. Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin are sidelined as well. It will basically be Charles Clay, a little Robert Woods, and a whole lot of McCoy once again.
RB Latavius MurrayOakland Raiders, $7,000 (No Price Change)
Since running roughshod over the Browns in Week 3, Murray disappointed against the Bears, and sporadically, if unofficially, has been shown the bench by Oakland’s coaching staff. His injured shoulder has also factored into his performance decline. If the recent bye week wasn’t the cure for both issues, the Chargers 31st-ranked run defense (-31.7) should get Murray back on track. There is little doubt that Oakland will attempt a ground-and-pound approach while in San Diego, with the goal of keeping Philip Rivers and company on the sideline.
Even if the four-point-underdog Raiders cannot stay in a neutral-enough game script to keep pounding Murray against the Chargers – who allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs – they can still throw it to him. Heading into his Week 6 bye, Murray was tied for 14th among running backs with 20 targets. He caught seven passes in Week 1 when Oakland was blown out by Cincinnati. In cash games, it’s too risky to count on him staying viable in what will likely be negative game script, especially when his benchings are considered. But Murray makes for a fine tournament play.
RB Lamar MillerMiami Dolphins, $6,700 (+$300)
A $300 price jump is substantial, but still $600 shy of his Week 1 cost. That was back when we thought he would probably get enough volume to match his talent. After Week 6 and Miller’s 19 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown, plus three passing targets, we finally know he will. That assurance is easily worth paying the freight on the 20th-most expensive running back this week, even if his ownership will see a bump after Miami’s new coaching regime freed him, and because there is a lack of attractive alternatives in his price range.
The Dolphins are five-point favorites at home against a Texans team that has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs. Their run defense ranks seventh and they allow the 12th-lowest yards per carry (3.8). However, in recent weeks they have surrendered 4.5 yards per attempt and a touchdown to Frank Gore, one game after allowing 4.9 yards per attempt and three scores to Devonta Freeman. Houston and Miami are top-five teams in seconds-per-snap, and the game should feature elevated play volume – further solidifying Miller’s renewed workload.
RB Danny WoodheadSan Diego Chargers, $6,000 (No Price Change)
The Chargers offensive line is a mess. They are facing an Oakland run defense that allowed an even 3.0 yards per carry to running backs during their last three games. Melvin Gordon is currently a fumbling first-round flameout with a bum ankle who was benched last game. San Diego can seemingly throw at will even against quality pass defenses, and the Raiders don’t qualify. When the home favorite Chargers gain a lead, their best method of clock-killing will be high-percentage completions, rather than slamming into a tough defensive front.
Woodhead’s snap percentage jumped back into the mid-50s last week, and his target count rebounded up to six. That’s right where they were in the first two weeks, when he averaged 16.8 FanDuel points. Branden Oliver will pick up some of Gordon’s work if the rookie does not play, but this has all the makings of a classic Woodhead game. The Chargers are dealing with injuries of varying severity to several pass catchers, the Raiders can’t cover anyone in the areas that tight ends and running backs receive targets, and Rivers should lean heavily on the dependable Woodhead.
WR Julio JonesAtlanta Falcons, $9,100 (-$100)
Paying up to be contrarian can help differentiate lineups, while gaining exposure to elite options. Everyone is rightfully drooling over DeAndre Hopkins (just $100 more expensive), there are several excellent values a tier or two below Jones, and his production in the last three games has been relatively tame. His balky hamstring will have had 10 days to recover since Atlanta last played on Thursday Night Football. This is a sweet bounce-back spot for a wideout who averaged 28.3 FanDuel points during the season’s opening three weeks.
Coming off of a six-catch, 93-yard Week 6, in which he set a season-high 93.2-percent snap rate, Jones gets a Titans defense that’s allowed the ninth-fewest points to receivers. That may further depress his ownership percentage. Jones is slated to run most of his routes against Perrish Cox, Tennessee’s only regular cornerback with a positive coverage grade. However Cox has a hamstring injury and may not play. This would mean that last season’s 104th-best coverage cornerback, Blidi “The Bleeder”
Wreh-Wilson, will be getting sliced up by Jones just in time for Halloween.
WR Mike EvansTampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,500 (No Price Change)
Remember this guy? At some point, he is going to remind us that he was considered a borderline top-12 wide receiver just six weeks ago, and a matchup with Washington’s pass defense is a likely spot for him to start. Plus, the forgotten Evans will be helping a small percentage of tournament lineups. He was rounding into form before Tampa Bay’s Week 6 bye, and posted his best passing game grade (+1.2) after a slow first three outings (-1.5) coming off of a hamstring injury. Evans only saw two second-half targets in a game where the Bucs ran away from (and all over) the Jaguars.
The underdog Bucs will likely be throwing often, at least in the second half. With two weeks to prepare for a Washington team that has just one quality healthy cornerback in Bashaud Breeland (who gave up two touchdowns last week), the six-foot-five, 231-pound Evans has a clear matchup advantage. None of Washington’s starting corners are taller than six-feet. While we probably won’t see a repeat of the last time Evans went to Washington and left with seven catches, 209 yards, and two touchdowns, it should still be a productive trip.
WR Donte MoncriefIndianapolis Colts, $6,500 (+$300)
Moncrief will be popular. But despite the price hike, he is an affordable way to gain exposure to a Colts offense that has an implied total north of four touchdowns. He is the 25th-most expensive wideout and produces like a borderline top-12 fantasy receiver when Andrew Luck plays. He hasn’t had less than 21.5-percent of the Colts targets in any of Luck’s four games, and he has a touchdown in each. Moncrief’s two lowest snap-percentage outings came with Luck sidelined, and as we saw last week when he was targeted 11 times, the duo is back.
Luck will go to Moncrief even when he’s well-covered, as most of the second-year wideout’s touchdowns have come against quality cover men like Malcolm Butler, Antonio Cromartie, and Perrish Cox. However, for the majority of his routes against the Saints this week, Moncrief will feast on Brandon Browner, the current recipient of PFF’s worst coverage grade (-11.2). It is by no means a sneaky play, but rostering Moncrief will earn you the price relief needed to pay up for elite options and lineup diversification.
WR Michael FloydArizona Cardinals, $4,900 (No Price Change)
A week after receiving an endorsement as part of Carson Palmer’s write-up, Floyd gets the full recommendation for Week 7. He offers high-upside exposure to the highly-owned Cardinals passing game, as well lineup diversification when mixed with popular plays like Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and John Brown. The six-foot-three-inch, 220-pound former first rounder has cleared a 70-percent snap rate each of the past three weeks, including a season-high 75-percent last week. He is again healthy and starting in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.
Floyd set a season-high in Week 6 with eight targets and is averaging six during the last three games. He led the Cardinals in redzone targets with three, caught one touchdown, and nearly had two more. His five red zone looks over the last four games are tied with Fitzgerald for the team lead. Now Floyd faces a Ravens team that allows the most fantasy points to wideouts and ranks fourth-best in run defense (+22.0). The 7.5-point-favorite Cardinals, who lead the league in second-half rushing attempts while winning by at least 14 points, will see elevated passing volume as they struggle to grind clock on the ground.
TE Rob GronkowskiNew England Patriots, $8,100 (-$100)
Like with Julio Jones, you are paying up to be contrarian. Unlike with Jones, you are forking over an extreme amount for access to the clear top player at his position, even if his recent production obscures that fact. Antonio Gates’ foggy knee prognosis, along with San Diego having a viable alternative in Ladarius Green, has created slight cracks in the rock-solid tight end play of the week. Gates is still the mega-chalk, especially at only $5,800, but recent news should make us feel more comfortable pivoting away from him in tournaments.
Despite Gronkowski’s target share moving in the wrong direction, he’ll need to play a crucial role against a Jets defense that allows just 3.5 yards per carry. The Patriots haven’t trusted their young offensive line to run inside, with only 39 percent of attempts going between the tackles (52 percent in 2014), and they won’t start this week. Todd Bowles’ defense traditionally struggles with tight ends, and New York is yet to be tested by a top one. Bowles also blitzes often, and Brady has a 121.0 quarterback rating against extra rushers. Gronkowski has caught eight of nine targets when Brady is blitzed, for 135 yards and five touchdowns.
TE Delanie WalkerTennessee Titans, $5,500 (+100)
Walker is priced in a range where he shouldn’t draw much attention. He is just $300 cheaper than Gates, $100 below Jason Witten, the same cost as Charles Clay, and $100 more than Jordan Reed. Yet he should play a central role in a game that features a fourth-highest projected total of Week 7, and in which the 4.5-point underdog Titans will likely be trailing for much of the second half. Atlanta allows just 3.6 yards per rush (sixth-best), and their run defense grades 10th-best. Tennessee’s running game ranks seventh-worst (-1.3). They will be throwing late in the game.
Walker has seen 10 targets in two of his last three outings, and he averaged 7.5 catches and 82.5 yards in those games. He will be up against a Falcons defense that allows the seventh-most points to tight ends, including touchdowns in recent games to the likes of C.J. Fiedorowicz, Derek Carrier and Ben Watson. Linebacker Paul Worrilow is the worst-rated coverage linebacker (-5.3), and William Moore is the 75th-best coverage safety (-3.3). Even if Marcus Mariota does not play, Walker’s per-game target, yard, and touchdown rates are essentially identical to when Zach Mettenberger was his quarterback.