NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 8
Looks like last week was another solid week for us. This reader (shout-out to my man Alejandro Sosa), using only players named in the article, was Marlon Mack over Peyton Barber away from the nuts. This week, unfortunately, looks pretty tough, as evident by my chalk-heavy takes in today’s article (sorry about that).
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB1, FD: QB1]
Don’t get fooled into thinking Mahomes is expensive just because he’s the highest-priced quarterback on both sites. On DraftKings he’s only $7,000, which is $700 cheaper than the site average for the highest priced quarterback of the week over the past two seasons. He looks even cheaper when we factor in his productivity. He totals 213.9 DraftKings fantasy points, which trails only Peyton Manning in his historic 2013 season for the most by a quarterback through the first seven weeks of the season, and only by 4.4 fantasy points. He’s on pace to score the most fantasy points by any quarterback in any season all-time, and has been consistently great even in tough matchups this year (@ Denver, vs. Jacksonville). Even in blowouts his ceiling remains high – over the past two seasons, Kansas City ranks top-five in pass percentage when leading by 10 or more points.
Jameis Winston [DK: QB7, FD: QB7]
Speaking of historically great – as good as Mahomes has been, Tampa Bay’s QB1 has been better. Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combine to average 28.1 fantasy points per game to Mahomes’ 28.0. Together they’ve totaled 2,261 passing yards, which is 38 fewer than the Chiefs despite playing in one fewer game, and more than any other team through their first six games, save for the 2000 “Greatest Show On Turf” Rams who had only 14 more. The Tampa Bay passing attack is rolling, their defense is still historically bad, and their running game is still equally inept, and now they have an A+ matchup to top it all off. Cincinnati ranks ninth-worst in opposing passer rating, sixth-worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback, and fourth-worst in points allowed per drive. This comes on the heels of a much tougher matchup against the Browns, who rank top three in all categories – and remember, Winston still finished third at the position in DraftKings fantasy points last week. He’s a slightly better play there than FanDuel, as he’s a near-lock to hit the 300-yard-bonus, averaging 328.0 passing yards per game over the past two seasons (excluding incomplete games), which easily ranks best over this span.
Jared Goff [DK: QB7, FD: QB3] / Aaron Rodgers [DK: QB2, FD: QB2]
This is the highest over/under of the slate, Goff is averaging 31.4 DraftKings fantasy points per game at home, and Rodgers is fresh off of a bye following back-to-back 400-yard performances. There’s massive fantasy potential here if Rodgers can keep this game competitive and force the Rams to pass, and he should.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley [DK: RB1, FD: RB1]
Like with Mahomes, Gurley is expensive as far as expensive running backs are concerned, but I don’t think he’d be expensive if he was Ladanian Tomlinson in his prime, and that’s basically the best comparison for who he’s been this year. Gurley is on pace for 467.7 fantasy points, or the second-most by any player at any position all-time. He’s also on pace for 32 touchdowns, or the most by any player all-time.
He averages 32.8 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games, and with at least 20.0 fantasy points in each of these games. And volume has been just as good as production. Gurley is averaging 22.5 expected fantasy points per game, which is the most in the league, 3.1 more than last year, and what would be the most by any player at any position of (at least) the past decade. He’s also leading in expected fantasy point market share (31.7%) and expected touchdown market share (48.8%). Factor in that he’s one of the best and most-efficient running backs on the league and the Rams are arguably the most potent offense in football, and he feels worth paying up for (on DraftKings more so than FanDuel this week).
David Johnson [DK: RB8, FD: RB7]
After OC Mike McCoy’s firing, new OC Byron Leftwich has said he’s going to use Johnson in a manner similar to how Bruce Arians used him in 2016 (he comes from that regime) and that getting Johnson more and more-optimized looks is one of the team’s top priorities. Johnson’s usage has been decent this year but nothing close to his 2016 season, which ranks second-best by any player this past decade (in terms of expected fantasy points). This year, Johnson ranks 10th in expected fantasy points per game and fourth in expected fantasy point market share. That latter point is especially important given the uptick in pace we should expect from Leftwich. Arizona ranked second in plays per game in 2016 (67.9) but ranks 32nd this year (52.6). Essentially, Johnson would be appropriately priced if McCoy were still the OC, $3,000 too cheap if this were 2016, and about $1,000 to cheap this week. The matchup is strong as well, in a close game (1.5-point spread) against a San Francisco defense ranking seventh-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game surrendered to opposing running backs.
Phillip Lindsay [DK: RB13, FD: RB13]
Royce Freeman is confirmed out for Sunday, which makes Lindsay — our ninth-highest-graded running back — one of the stronger values on the slate. Lindsay was already the team’s clear RB1, leading the backfield in touches every week but one (when he was ejected in the second quarter of Week 3). Even so, it was still a committee, with Freeman eating into about 35 percent of the snaps, 45 percent of the carries, 13 percent of the team’s backfield targets, and 60 percent of the team’s rushing attempts inside the five-yard-line. He might not get all of Freeman’s missing work, but he should get the far majority of it. He also has a great matchup. Kansas City’s defense ranks third-worst in yards per carry allowed and second-worst in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs.
Other: Jalen Richard, Raheem Mostert, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen, Joe Mixon
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams [DK: WR4, FD: WR3]
By my data, Adams has easily had the league’s toughest cornerback schedule to start the year. He’s faced shadow coverage against Darius Slay, Xavier Rhodes, and Tre’Davious White, as well as matchups against San Francisco and Chicago, who rank 10th-best and fifth-best (respectively) in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing WR1s. His softest matchup of the year was against Washington, who are more neutral than soft. In spite of this, he still ranks fifth in expected- and fourth in actual fantasy points per game, or first and second over the past four weeks. This week, in a pass-heavy game-script (underdogs by 9.5) he’ll run about 80 percent of his routes against Troy Hill and Marcus Peters. Over the last two weeks, Hill has surrendered 11 receptions, 208 yards, and a score on 16 targets. Peters had a brutal stretch from Weeks 3 to 5, giving up 255 yards and five touchdowns in coverage, and has been better or not really tested since (two receptions on two targets). Peters doesn’t shadow, so this is probably Adams’ best matchup of the year, making him my top wide receiver play of the week.
Jarvis Landry [DK: WR8, FD: WR15]
I warned you last week, if Landry didn’t hit, that was likely going to be the last time I mentioned him in this column. But he did hit, and FanDuel barely raised his price-tag in spite of it. Among wide receivers and on a per-game-basis, he ranks sixth in targets (10.4), 12th in air yards (109.7), sixth in expected touchdowns (0.70), and third in expected fantasy points per game (19.8). Efficiency hasn’t been as good but it was better last week, and now Landry has a comparably great matchup. The Steelers are surrendering the third-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers, which is where he runs 72 percent of his routes.
A.J. Green [DK: WR3, FD: WR2]
Tampa Bay is giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Okay, now let’s dissect that. Tampa Bay has actually been tough to opposing outside wide receivers, ranking ninth-best in fantasy points per game allowed. Against slot wide receivers, they rank dead last, surrendering 26.2 fantasy points per game. That’s 28 percent more than the third-worst Steelers, and 57 percent of their total wide receiver fantasy points allowed (most). You might think this means the play is Tyler Boyd, the team’s primary slot wide receiver, but Green actually ranks seventh among all wide receivers in fantasy points scored from the slot (and 11.4 more than Boyd). Over the past three weeks Green also leads all wide receivers in targets (36) with double more than the next-closest Bengals receiver (Boyd). After much internal debate, I like both receivers, but lean Green over Boyd where you can afford it.
Other: Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, Jordy Nelson, Juju Smith-Schuster, T.Y. Hilton, Robert Woods, Michael Crabtree, Tyler Boyd,
Tight End
Travis Kelce [DK: TE1, FD: TE1]
Travis Kelce is $6,800 on DraftKings this week, or about $300 cheaper than his average over the second-half of last year. Considering he’s averaging more expected- and actual fantasy points per game this year, that might make him look like a value. The matchup looks good as well, as Denver is still a tight end funnel defense – giving up 25 percent of their passing yardage allowed to tight ends, which ranks seventh-most. His value becomes all the more glaring this week, however, given the state of the position as a whole and on a week where Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski are off the main slate.
David Njoku [DK: TE7, FD: TE11]
From my Start/Sit article, “Njoku has hit 50 yards receiving in four straight games. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his last two games. He’s seen between six and 12 targets in every game but one. Now, he gets set to face off against a Steelers defense giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. In a week with a lot of uncertainty at the injury-plagued position, he’s a top option.” To be more specific, when I said he’s a top option, I meant he’s top-five in my rankings. Clearly, as the 11th-highest-priced tight end on FanDuel (or even seventh on DraftKings), and on a brutal week for the position, he’s a top value.
Other: After these two, there’s sort of a three-way tie behind them… Vance McDonald comes off of a career-high seven-reception performance against the Bengals to face a Cleveland defense without their primary tight end defender – Joe Schobert, “our highest-graded coverage linebacker”:https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-browns-lose-nfls-best-coverage-linebacker-in-joe-schobert…. Greg Olsen has played on every snap but one and totals 12 targets in his two games back from injury. He follows up an extremely difficult matchup against the Eagles, who rank second-best in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, to face the Ravens, who have seen 29 percent of their passing yardage allowed go to tight ends (most in the league)…. Jared Cook has less competition for targets with Amari Cooper out of the picture and has the best receiver matchup of the week (just slightly ahead of Jordy Nelson) per my model (the one that loved John Brown last week)…