NFL Chalk Talk: Week 3
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is more important than our actual box-score projections. Give a sharp player the ownership percentages before the tournament starts and he/she will be aleble to be profitable solely on that information.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This article refers to the Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Carson Palmer $6,600: 22 percent
Through two weeks, Palmer is fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback with seven touchdown passes and one interception. However, he’s the 11th-most expensive QB on DraftKings this week and has a home matchup against a young 49ers secondary that everyone saw get lit by Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2. Palmer, who was the second-most owned QB last week across the site at 15.8 percent, will be even more popular this week. I like him way more in cash games than tournaments.
2. Tom Brady $7,700: 15 percent
Players are always highly owned when they face the Jaguars. We saw it last week as Jarvis Landry was at 22.4 percent across DraftKings and the Dolphins D/ST was 20.5 percent. Combine the Jags stigma with Brady’s white-hot start and there will be a lot of traffic on Brady. The only reason I don’t think he’ll be over 15 percent is everyone is aware of the blowout potential (Patriots are favored by 13.5 points). If Brady is forced to stay aggressive for all four quarters, he’ll likely beat both his salary expectation and ownership.
3. Matt Ryan $7,100: 9 percent
Matty Ice always seems to be underowned, even in dreamy spots like home vs. PHL Week 1 and at NYG Week 2. So while I think Ryan will be among the higher owned QBs this week, I still think he’ll be underowned relative to his ceiling at Dallas. The percentages at the position are far more spread out than anywhere else, and people will also be on Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck’s bounce-back spot, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton some.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Aaron Rodgers (8 percent), Andrew Luck (7 percent), Cam Newton (4 percent), Marcus Mariota (3 percent).
RUNNING BACK
1. James Starks $3,000: 45 percent
This ownership projection obviously assumes Eddie Lacy will be ruled out by Saturday. If that happens, we’d have a min-priced RB who has proven he can move seamlessly into one of the league’s best offenses. Despite a somewhat difficult matchup with a Chiefs defense that shut down Denver’s run game last week and was 11th-best against fantasy RBs last year, Starks is still a lock to crush value. If the Lacy news is official, he’ll be in 100 percent of most people’s cash-game lineups. Of course, there’s always merit to fading a player with a 40-50 percent ownership projection in a GPP – although doing at running back is not as strong as doing it at wide receiver (see Davante Adams Week 1).
2. Marshawn Lynch $7,400: 20 percent
You’re not sneaking anything past the field by expecting a Marshawn Lynch eruption this week. It’s fairly common knowledge that he’s rushed for 24 TDs at home vs. 11 on the road over the previous three seasons. It’s also known that he had two difficult road spots to start the year (at STL, at GB) and will fare far better with game-flow on his side. The Seahawks are 14.5-point favorites over the Bears this week. Lynch/SEA D stacks will be littered heavily throughout the Milly Maker this week, meaning I’ll be fading at least one of them in my lineups.
3. Dion Lewis $4,200: 15 percent
Lewis was ridiculously low-owned in Week 2 and I contributed to that as I had zero of him. It was a combination of a seemingly tough matchup at Buffalo, LeGarrette Blount coming off suspension and a general wariness of Bill Belichick’s running back rotations. However, now Lewis is on everyone’s radar as he’s played on 80.9 percent of the snaps thought two weeks and piled up 258 yards from scrimmage with one touchdown. Now he faces the Jags at home, so we know his ownership is going to skyrocket. The concern is that this turns into a “Blount game” even though Lewis is playing so well. I honestly don’t know what to do with Lewis this week, which means I probably won’t play him in cash.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Adrian Peterson (9 percent), Le’Veon Bell (8 percent), Matt Forte (8 percent).
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Brandon Marshall $6,200: 30 percent
Any receiver facing the fast-paced Eagles and their broken secondary is a fantastic play. Especially one who is at home and underpriced relative to his volume expectation. Add in injuries to Eric Decker (knee) and Chris Owusu (knee), and we have the chalk wideout of the week (CWOTW). I’ll have Marshall in 100 percent of my cash games and will have him in a lot of GPP lineups as well.
2. Antonio Brown $8,900: 29 percent
Brown is literally unstoppable and Le’Veon Bell’s return from suspension won’t affect volume. The Rams are a team that is far easier to pass on than run through – despite last week’s letdown-spot loss to the Redskins. Brown was owned at 31.5 percent across DraftKings in Week 2 – and that was with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham both part of the slate. Beckham isn’t part of the Sunday/Monday slate, so Brown’s ownership will certainly stay very, very high.
3. Julio Jones $9,000: 27 percent
Jones was 24.0 percent owned against the Giants last week despite missing a couple of days with a sore hammy. He went on to pay off his salary again with a 13-135-0 line that included a touchdown reversed on replay. With no OBJ on the main slate, Jones and Brown will be very popular once again. If forced to choose, I’d rather roster Brown given a promise I’ve made to myself to stop attacking this overperforming Dallas defense that is aided by the weekly time of possession dominance.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Demaryius Thomas (9 percent), Emmanuel Sanders (5 percent), Allen Robinson (6 percent).
TIGHT END
1. Rob Gronkowski $7,400: 20 percent
Gronk proved (once again) last week that matchups don’t matter as he roasted the Bills’ elite tight end defense for 7-113-1 on 13 targets. That will give the general public even more confidence to roster him, one week after he was 14.2 percent owned. While Greg Olsen (off a 14-target game) and Heath Miller also represent reasonably safe targets, it’s scary going into a H2H matchup without Gronk – despite his price. His tournament ownership percentage should stay around 20 as users can build far sexier lineups by saving at tight end.
2. Travis Kelce $5,000: 10 percent
Kelce has turned 11 targets into 10-164-2 on the young season. With a road matchup against the potent Packers, the narrative goes that the Chiefs will have to feature him way more to score enough points to stay in this game. That should lure a lot of people toward Kelce, who has true Gronkonian ability if the Chiefs choose to unleash it. His ceiling in a tournament is appealing.
3. Tyler Eifert $4,800: 9 percent
Anytime a guy sees 17 targets in two weeks and turns that into 13-153-3, he’s going to be high owned. Especially when he’s just $4800. Still, I don’t think Eifert will be overowned due to Gronk being on the slate as well as other fine options such as Kelce, Olsen and Heath Miller. People will also chase with Crockett Gillmore and Jason Witten, and some will go after the “squeaky wheel” theorem with Jimmy Graham. All of this is a long way of saying I wouldn’t worry about ownership too much when choosing your tight end this week.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Jimmy Graham (4 percent), Greg Olsen (8 percent), Heath Miller (6 percent).