NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 18
We’ve made it to week 18, and although a bunch of teams have absolutely nothing to play for, there’s still a lot of teams that will be going all out for a win to make the playoffs, improve seeding, or secure a bye. Teams with nothing to play for are going to be risky in DFS this week, as snap counts could be all over the place, as staffs want to give more looks to rookies and vets won’t want to risk serious injury if a game is meaningless, so I will be targeting mostly teams with serious motivation to win in cash games. It’s also worth noting that FD is including the 8:20PM Lions/Packers game in their main slate, while DK will not include that game, and they’ll go with 13 games instead of 14.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or end zone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 18, how likely guys who missed week 17 are to play week 18, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 18 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out or likely out due to injury for week 18 include Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Colt McCoy, Nick Foles, Tyler Huntley, James Conner, J.K. Dobbins, Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews, Robbie Anderson, Phillip Dorsett, Kendall Hinton, Travis Homer, Kylen Granson, Cedrick Wilson, Jonnu Smith, CJ Uzomah, Julio Jones, DeSean Jackson, OJ Howard, and Marlon Mack.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Dolphins are going to start Skylar Thompson as Tua and Teddy are both injured and Miami has to win to have any playoff hopes. It’s a tough matchup with the Jets, but at home, the Dolphins are still a team to consider in DFS, especially the running backs.
- With Fields out, the Bears will start Nathan Peterman, so am I avoiding this passing attack in DFS and am more interested in the run game, as they should lean on Montgomery/Herbert more with Fields’ rushing upside off the table.
- With Foles out, the Colts will start Sam Ehlinger, and even though there’s nothing to play for standings-wise in this game, Ehlinger will want to prove he deserves to start in the NFL after disappointing as a starter earlier in the season and is in play for GPPs at his cheap salary.
- The Commanders will turn to Sam Howell for their final game, as they are eliminated from the playoffs and are turning to player evaluation. Howell has some rushing upside and plenty of weapons, plus he’ll be playing in front of a home crowd, so he is definitely in play for GPPs at his super cheap salary. Gibson and Robinson are out at RB so Jonathan Williams and Jaret Patterson will carry the RB load.
- The Cardinals will be without McCoy and Hopkins again so David Blough will start in a brutal matchup with SF while Brown and Dortch remain the top WRs for him.
- The Jets are going with Joe Flacco at QB as White is out with his rib injury.
- Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell are on track to play for SF but I wouldn’t expect a huge workload for either in a likely easy win against Arizona knowing they need both to be healthy for the playoffs.
- Keep an eye out for updates on teams like the Giants, Chargers, and Bucs, who have playoff spots locked up but can’t improve much by winning (Chargers will know if they need to win before their kickoff depending on the Ravens game), as they could all give starters a lot of rest even if they say they’ll start.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- This week, we need a motivated QB in cash games, and for the price, I’m really liking Aaron Rodgers ($7,100) and Geno Smith ($7,300) who are playing in must-win games, with Rodgers playing an opponent in the Lions, who are also in must-win territory, so I give him the slight edge. I also like the prices of Joe Burrow ($8,200) and Josh Allen ($8,800) as both are still trying to win and secure a bye, while Sam Howell ($6,000) is my favorite super cheap QB play, and Jared Goff ($7,200) is a nice GPP option.
- At RB, I really like Najee Harris ($7,200), as the Steelers have to win to have a playoff chance, and it’s a nice matchup against a vulnerable Browns run defense. I also really like Tyler Allgeier ($6,500), as the Falcons have nothing to play for, so they might as well unleash the rookie and not risk a devastating Patterson injury, and his price is still super cheap against a TB team that may rest some defensive starters. Aaron Jones ($7,400) also makes a ton of sense at a great price, as the Packers should lean on him and not let up against Detroit, and I kind of like stacking him with Rodgers for max GB points exposure.
- At WR, I like stacking Christian Watson ($6,900) if you go with Rodgers as your QB while Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) is the obvious bring back to stack that game, while DJ Chark ($5,700) is a much cheaper option if you need the savings. CeeDee Lamb ($8,200) is in play for WR1 upside, as the Cowboys will be motivated to win against a Commanders team with nothing to play for, while DK Metcalf ($7,200) also has WR1 upside in a must win game at a great price.
- At TE, Pat Freiermuth ($5,500) and Dawson Knox ($5,700) are my favorite plays for the price, as both are on motivated to win offenses while Dalton Schultz ($6,500) and TJ Hockenson ($7,200) are other solid options for a bit more salary.
- For defense, I like the 49ers ($4,900) at home against Blough, along with the Vikings ($3,700) against Peterman. The Steelers ($3,900) are also in play with high motivation to win along with the Bills ($4,800).
Looking at DraftKings:
- No DET/GB on this slate, so I’ll be looking at either Geno Smith ($6,000), Dak Prescott ($6,600), Joe Burrow ($7,300), or Kirk Cousins ($6,500) for my cash game QB, while Sam Howell ($4,900) is worth throwing on some GPP teams.
- Najee Harris ($6,100) and Tyler Allgeier ($5,600) remain my favorite RBs for the price, and I also really like the price of Dalvin Cook ($7,300), Joe Mixon ($7,100), and Miles Sanders ($5,900).
- At WR, I really like DK Metcalf ($6,700), as Seattle will keep the foot on the gas in a must-win spot, and Lockett still isn’t 100% healthy. CeeDee Lamb ($8,200) remains an excellent spend-up option, while Brandon Aiyuk ($6,800) is a solid mid-range target who has been awesome with Purdy under center and is coming off a 12 target 29+ FP performance. For under $6k I like Garrett Wilson ($5,800), Gabe Davis ($5,400), Diontae Johnson ($5,200), Drake London ($4,900), and Jahan Dotson ($4,500).
- Pat Freiermuth ($3,800) and Dawson Knox ($4,200) remain my top p/$ TEs with Dalton Schultz ($4,200) right there too, while TJ Hockenson ($5,700) is a bit pricier but still a high-upside play. Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,900) is worth mentioning too, as he saw 6 targets and scored a TD last week and should be heavily involved again for dirt cheap.
- For defense I’m rolling with either the Steelers ($3,200) or Vikings ($2,900) in cash games, while SF ($4,100) and BUF ($3,800) are still solid higher priced options.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn