NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 2
NFL DFS week 1 is in the books, and wow did it feel to good to watch meaningful football all day Sunday. We had some crazy games with great endings and of course a lot of what we thought about players and teams ended up backfiring, but hopefully some of what you thought would happen did and allowed you to cash some lineups! As I said last week, the sites are going to tighten up on the salaries, so in theory, it should be a little harder to fit all the players we want, but with a week of real data to help with matchups, usage / target shares, and some big injuries that should open up some new value, let’s start getting a feel for games and players that are looking like strong targets this week.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating an RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 2, how likely guys who missed week 1 are to play week 2, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 2 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Guys on the main slate who are definitely out for week 2 be it suspension or injury are George Kittle, Alvin Kamara, Julio Jones, J.K. Dobbins, James Proche, Chris Godwin, Michael Pittman, Dak Prescott, Zach Wilson, Elijah Mitchell, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Andy Isabella, Michael Gallup, Van Jefferson, Alec Pierce, Wan’Dale Robinson, Brian Robinson, Jameson Williams, Ty Montgomery, Tyquan Thornton, Gus Edwards, James Washington, KJ Hamler, C.J. Uzomah, Damien Williams, and Greg Dulcich.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
One of the biggest changes is the 49ers’ top RB as Elijah Mitchell is out indefinitely with a knee injury, so Jeff Wilson will get the first crack at the starting job this week while Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price should both be in the mix competing for the #2 spot. Kadarius Toney played just 7 snaps last week partially due to coming back from an injury as well as a crowded WR room, so until we see him get a normal snap count for a starter, he’s going to be considered a WR4-5 and the only Giants player I’d feel safe starting is Saquon Barkley. The Colts top WRs will be Parris Campbell, Ashton Dulin, and Mike Strachan while Kylen Granson could be a sneaky value option coming off seven targets last week.
Three games are standing out as top stacks in WSH/DET, IND/JAX, and ARI/LVR and most of my cash game plays will likely come from these games.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The early top p/$ projected QBs are Derek Carr ($7,300), Jared Goff ($6,700), Lamar Jackson ($8,200), Matthew Stafford ($7,600), and Matt Ryan ($6,800). For the price and matchup Derek Carr makes a lot of sense facing a Cardinals defense that just got decimated by Mahomes, and I’d consider Carr to have one of the highest floors of the week along with a 4+ TD ceiling.
- I also really like Stafford and Ryan from that group facing defenses that got lit up last week, and I would add in Russell Wilson ($7,500), Joe Burrow ($7,900), and Carson Wentz ($7,400) as solid options to consider this week.
- At RB, we see Saquon Barkley $2k more expensive than he was week 1, so hopefully you took advantage of that value last week. He’s still projected as a top 5 p/$ play at $8,800 and Carolina got destroyed on the ground last week so I feel good about making Barkley a top RB target again even at his higher price as his volume and passing down work along with his pretty much guaranteed goal-line work gives him an elite floor and ceiling.
- Leonard Fournette ($7,800) and Joe Mixon ($8,300) are also looking like excellent plays for the price if you don’t want to pay up for McCaffrey ($9k) or Taylor ($10k), but if I had to choose one, it would be Mixon, as I think his volume and passing game work is safer than Fournette’s especially with Rachaad White lurking behind him. Antonio Gibson ($7,400) and Javonte Williams ($7,300) are also in play at this price range.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays right now are Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900), DJ Moore ($6,200), Brandin Cooks ($6,700), Christian Kirk ($6,500), Jerry Jeudy ($6,300), Drake London ($5,600), Jahan Dotson ($5,500), Greg Dortch ($5,500), and Ashton Dulin ($5,200).
- At TE Kyle Pitts disappointed last week but is still at an excellent price of $5,900 this week and will likely be lower-owned with everyone’s recency bias. I also really like TJ Hockenson ($5,700) and Tyler Higbee ($5,300) for value options.
- The Browns ($4,700) are my favorite expensive defense, while the Bengals ($3,900) and Seahawks ($3,100) are cheaper options I like as well.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Derek Carr ($6,200) remains a top 5 p/$ projected play while Trey Lance ($5,700), Daniel Jones ($5,100), Matthew Stafford ($6,300), and Matt Ryan ($5,500) are some of my favorite other options along with Carson Wentz ($5,800).
- Saquon Barkley is just $1,200 more than he was week 1, so it makes sense that he’s the top projected p/$ play at RB currently, while Joe Mixon ($7,200), Leonard Fournette ($6,700), and Antonio Gibson ($6,200) are all excellent plays for their prices.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has a tougher matchup this week against the Rams but is still a fine play at $6k while Javonte Williams ($6,500) was a beast in the passing game last week, seeing 12 targets. So that alone gives him a great floor on a full PPR site like DK.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Brandin Cooks ($6,000), DJ Moore ($5,700), Marquise Brown ($6,200), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,500), Michael Thomas ($5,800), Christian Kirk ($5,700), Jerry Jeudy ($5,600), Jahan Dotson ($4,200), Greg Dortch ($3,500), and Ashton Dulin ($3,200).
- Kyle Pitts ($5,400), TJ Hockenson ($4,700), and Tyler Higbee ($4,200) remain my favorite TE options for the price, while the Bengals are my favorite defense at just $2,200 facing a reeling Cowboys team without Dak.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn