NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 6
The bye weeks are upon us with the Titans, Raiders, Lions, and Texans all on week 6 bye and off the NFL DFS radar for now. The biggest news from week five was QB and RB injuries as Baker Mayfield is going to be out a while, Tua is still in concussion protocol and out, and there’s still uncertainty around Mac Jones and Jameis Winston (Dalton will start) being able to return. As far as the RBs Damien Harris is likely out this week with a hamstring injury and Rashaad Penny is out for the year with a broken leg while Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, and James Conner are all out as well.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 6, how likely guys who missed week 5 are to play week 6, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 6 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for week 6 include Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Cam Akers, Damien Harris, Cordarrelle Patterson, Nyheim Hines, Marvin Jones, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Rashaad Penny, Rashod Bateman, Chris Olave, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Christian Watson, Durham Smythe, DeAndre Hopkins, Ashton Dulin, Nelson Agholor, Pat Freiermuth, Damien Williams, Justice Hill, Darrel Williams, and Jonathan Ward.
The status of the Colts RBs, Cardinals RBs, and Saints WRs are what I will be monitoring the closest as Deon Jackson could be looking at a sizeable workload if Taylor and Hines are out while Eno Benjamin would be a top value play against SEA if Conner and Williams are out while the Saints top 3 WRs being out would make Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill popular plays.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
At QB we see PJ Walker as the starting QB for the Panthers and, in a road game against the Rams and a current 15 point team total, it’s going to be hard to use any CAR players in DFS cash games. Skylar Thompson is also on track to start for Miami and I will be looking at other teams for WR/TEs this week.
With no Damien Harris or Rashaad Penny it’s going to be the Rhamondre Stevenson and Kenneth Walker show with both looking at big workloads and both coming off big weeks to make them even more popular plays. Eno Benjamin will get the bulk of the RB work with Conner and Williams out for ARI while Henderson is a solid value play with Akers out this week.
The clear top game to stack is BUF/KCC sitting at a 54 game total and I’m expecting Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Travis Kelce to be the highest owned players of the slate. ARI/SEA is another game I love stacking as the Seahawks prices just aren’t high enough to fade for me while Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz face the worst defense in football and also have very affordable prices.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- My favorite p/$ QBs right now are Kyler Murray ($8,300), Tom Brady ($7,500), Geno Smith ($7,400), and Kenny Pickett ($6,500) while Josh Allen ($9,200), Lamar Jackson ($8,800), and Patrick Mahomes ($8,600) are the clear highest upside and likely highest owned QBs if you can afford them.
- Lower-owned cheap QBs that I think could have nice weeks include Kirk Cousins ($7,600), Aaron Rodgers ($7,500), Matthew Stafford ($7,200), Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,100), and Daniel Jones ($6,800).
- At RB my top p/$ plays are Darrell Henderson ($5,700), Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,500), Kenneth Walker ($6,500), Eno Benjamin ($6,300), and Breece Hall ($7,100) and using three from this group seems like a pretty solid way to start your cash game lineups this week. Chubb, Barkley, Fournette, Cook, and Kamara are all in play too if you want to spend a little more salary and all will likely see lower ownership than the first RB’s I mentioned.
- Some other cheap RBs that I like this week include Jeff Wilson ($7,200), Raheem Mostert ($6,500), and Travis Etienne ($6,400).
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Tyler Lockett ($7,500), DK Metcalf ($7,400), Gabe Davis ($6,900), Michael Pittman ($6,700), Diontae Johnson ($6,300), George Pickens ($5,800), Rondale Moore ($5,600), and Romeo Doubs ($5,500).
- At TE we have Travis Kelce ($8,300) and Mark Andrews ($7,800) back on the main slate and both should draw huge ownership coming off big weeks while Taysom Hill ($7,500) remains an elite GPP play especially if some of the Saints WRs remain out. Zach Ertz ($6,000) is my favorite value TE along with Hayden Hurst ($4,900).
- The 49ers ($4,700), Rams ($4,400) and Jaguars ($4,300) are my favorite defenses this week.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Geno Smith ($5,700) is my top p/$ QB play this week as he is somehow under $6k still after three straight weeks with over 22 FP and could be in a shootout with Arizona this week. Josh Allen ($8,200) would be my next target if you have the salary and want a safer floor and higher ceiling than Geno while Lamar Jackson ($8,100), Patrick Mahomes ($8,000), and Kyler Murray ($7,300) are all in play too.
- Like FD my favorite p/$ RBs remain Darrell Henderson ($5,100), Eno Benjamin ($4,600), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000), Kenneth Walker ($5,400), and Breece Hall ($5,800) as all should be at least $1k+ more in salary given their projected usages this week. If you want to go with likely lower-owned RBs at still great prices I’d consider Alvin Kamara ($6,700), Jeff Wilson ($6,200), Raheem Mostert ($5,700), and Travis Etienne ($5,000).
- At WR, my favorite p/$ play is Tyler Lockett ($5,600) who I guess will never be over $6k this season even after four great weeks in a row while DK Metcalf ($6,800) is still way too cheap along with Gabriel Davis ($6,500) coming off a monster game and a likely shootout this week with KC. Other WR’s I like for the price include Marquise Brown ($7,200), Amari Cooper ($5,900), Diontae Johnson ($5,700), Jakobi Meyers ($5,300), Romeo Doubs ($4,800), George Pickens ($4,600), Alec Pierce ($4,300), and Rondale Moore ($4,200).
- Zach Ertz is my favorite p/$ TE play for just $4,900 while Tyler Higbee ($4,600), David Njoku ($4,000), Evan Engram (3,500), and Hayden Hurst ($3,300) are all solid value options as well.
- For defense I will be using the Rams ($4,100), 49ers ($3,700), and Jaguars ($3,000) the most.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn