NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 9

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-06 16:37:23

Week 8 had some absolutely monster performances with Kamara, AJ Brown, McCaffrey, and Foreman each putting up 3 total TDS (CMC had to show off and throw for one) and it was actually a pretty clean week as far as new injuries. The trade deadline saw some big-time moves including TJ Hockenson going to Minnesota, Jeff Wilson to Miami, Chase Edmonds to Denver, Nyheim Hines to Buffalo, and Chase Claypool to Chicago. We’ll see who is available for their new teams this week and hopefully learn in what capacity.

This is also one of the biggest bye weeks of the season as the Browns, Cowboys, Broncos, Giants, Steelers, and 49ers will get the week off, leaving us with a smaller pool of players to work with in DFS.

This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal-line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NFL DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside. I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for Week 9, how likely guys who missed week 8 are going to play in Week 9, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of Sunday and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

Important guys on the main slate who are out for Week 9 include Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Mike Williams, Jonathan Taylor, JaMarr Chase, Chuba Hubbard, Damien Harris, Keenan Allen, Darren Waller, JD McKissic, Corey Davis, Jahan Dotson, Randall Cobb, DeVante Parker, Josh Reynolds, Marquise Goodwin, Russell Gage, Daniel Bellinger, Cameron Brate, Donald Parham, Darrel Williams, and Irv Smith.

NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks

Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• With TJ Hockenson going to the Vikings and Brock Wright in concussion protocol, it could be James Mitchell as the top TE for the Lions. Although he only has one catch on the year, he is a name to keep on your GPP radar for cheap. Hockenson will take over for the injured Smith in Minnesota, and he will take a few targets away from Jefferson and Thielen while giving Cousins another great weapon.

• It will be interesting to see how much work Nyheim Hines gets in Buffalo and how big of a hit Singletary takes. Both are great pass catchers, so we could see Singletary get most of the 1st and 2nd down work while Hines should be the primary 3rd down back.

• In other RB news, Cordarrelle Patterson will return from IR this week, making the ATL backfield pretty much unusable, as I’d expect Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley to both stay involved after being productive in Patterson’s absence. If we hear that Patterson will go straight back to being the bell cow or we see Allgeier or Huntley inactive on Sunday, then I’d consider Patterson on DK for $5,800.

• My favorite game stack is SEA/ARI sitting on a total of just over 50 right now with lots of weapons on both teams to target. I also like MIA/CHI, LVR/JAX, LAC/ATL, and GB/DET as game stacks to target.

NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• My favorite p/$ QBs right now are Kyler Murray ($8,200), Derek Carr ($6,800), and Aaron Rodgers ($7,000), while Josh Allen ($9,300) is the obvious cash game target if you can fit him. Carr and Rodgers have shown low floors this year, but I love the matchup for Rodgers in Detroit. As for Carr, he was absolutely awful last week, but I’d expect him to bounce back with much more focus. And not to mention, Carr is also the cheapest he’s been all year.

• Lower-owned cheap QBs that I like are Justin Fields ($7,400), Trevor Lawrence ($6,800), Marcus Mariota ($7,100), and Matthew Stafford ($6,700).

• At RB my top p/$ plays are Travis Etienne ($7,600), Raheem Mostert ($6,500), Deon Jackson ($5,000), Aaron Jones ($7,800), Joe Mixon ($8,100), and Rhamondre Stevenson ($8,000) while Austin Ekeler ($9,400) has the highest ceiling of any RB if you can afford him.

• Some other cheap RBs that I like this week include Jonathan Taylor ($6,800) if he plays through his ankle injury, Devin Singletary ($6,000), Donta Foreman ($7,300), DAndre Swift ($7,500), and David Montgomery ($7,000).

• At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Tyler Boyd ($6,900), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100), Michael Pittman ($6,400), DJ Moore ($7,000), Gabe Davis ($6,600), Romeo Doubs ($6,100), Rondale Moore ($5,900), and Joshua Palmer ($6,200).

• At TE, we don’t have Kelce, Andrews, or Kittle available on the main slate and who knows if Waller will play or be effective. Right now I’m between Kyle Pitts ($6,300), Gerald Everett ($5,800), Evan Engram ($5,200), and Robert Tonyan ($5,000) as my favorite p/$ plays. With the matchup (ATL) and injury to Mike Williams, I think I’m leaning Everett as my top choice.

• The Bills ($5,000) are my favorite cash game defense if you can afford them, while the Patriots ($4,900) are my favorite GPP play. The Dolphins ($3,600) and Panthers ($3,300) are super cheap options if you want to punt the position.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Aaron Rodgers ($5,900) and Derek Carr ($5,400) are at their cheapest prices of the season, and I don’t mind either in cash games if you want to pay up at other positions, while Kyler Murray ($7,400) and Josh Allen ($8,500) are easily the highest ceiling plays. Tua, Burrow, Cousins, Geno, and Fields are my favorite GPP plays at QB.

• Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200) is the top p/$ projected RB as his price actually went down $200 from last game, and all he’s done over his last four games is go for over 20 FP in each, and he’s seen 16 targets over his last two games, which is huge for a full PPR site like DK. I also love Travis Etienne ($6,300), who should be above $7k after seeing 27 touches last game going for over 28 FP and now has an even better matchup against the Raiders. Raheem Mostert ($6,100), Joe Mixon ($6,500), Josh Jacobs ($7,300), Aaron Jones ($7,400), Deon Jackson ($5,200), Kenneth Walker ($6,200), and Donta Foreman ($6,000) are other RBs I’d consider for cash games at great prices (along with Ekeler for $8.8k if you can fit him).

• At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Deandre Hopkins ($7,900), DJ Moore ($5,800), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,600), Tyler Boyd ($6,300), Tyler Lockett ($6,100), Terry McLaurin ($5,900), Adam Thielen ($5,600), Romeo Doubs ($5,300), and Joshua Palmer ($5,100).

• At TE, Kyle Pitts ($4,500) and Gerald Everett ($4,800) are my favorite cash game targets, but if you want to go cheaper, I like Robert Tonyan ($3,800), Evan Engram ($3,300), Tyler Conklin ($3,200), and Cole Kmet ($3,000).

• For defense, I will try to fit in the Bills ($4,300) for cash games, but if I need the salary, I’m looking at the Panthers ($2,300) against a Bengals front line that’s having trouble protecting Burrow.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.

NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.

Good luck this week!

Image Credit: Imagn