NFL Grind Down: Conference Championships
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (written by STLCardinals84)
| Denver Broncos | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 3:05 PM ET | Sports Authority Field at Mile High | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 44 | 20.5 | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.2 | 18 | 12 | 16 | Offense | 28.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.7 | 9 | 20 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 18.4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 14 | 12 | 24 | 5 | Denver Broncos | 2 | 10 | 3 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 185 | 109 | 6 | 1,344 | Edelman | 104 | 71 | 7 | 826 | |
| Sanders | 145 | 81 | 6 | 1,249 | Amendola | 90 | 67 | 3 | 677 | |
| Latimer | 14 | 8 | 1 | 78 | LaFell | 79 | 40 | 0 | 530 | |
| Daniels | 80 | 48 | 3 | 527 | Gronkowski | 128 | 79 | 13 | 1,259 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: N/A
NE Matchup Rating: 5.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 5.0
New England Patriots
Quarterback: It’s Tom Brady in the playoffs. However, Denver has a slew of good defensive backs. They allowed just 200 yards passing per game in the regular season, good for the best pass defense in the league. It is an interesting clash, but don’t expect New England to fear this defense. They by-passed the run game last week and attempted 42 passes. The running backs logged a total of just 7 carries. That type of volume has value, especially on a two-game slate. Don’t overlook Brady, though he does take a back seat to the quarterbacks in the NFC game for me because of the matchup.
Running Game: Steven Jackson had 6 carries for 16 yards last week. Brandon Bolden didn’t log a single carry. James White carried the ball once. Let’s move along. White is the only viable option because he is more involved in the passing game.
Pass Catchers: The Patriots receiving corps gets a boost simply based on expected volume. Rob Gronkowski is a top option at a thin tight end position, though he is more attractive on DraftKings than FanDuel because he carries an exorbitant price tag on FD. If you need to go cheap, you can give Danny Amendola a look. Otherwise, I’ll lean to Julian Edelman simply based on volume. He caught ten passes for 100 yards in the Divisional round and looked fully healthy.
The Takeaway: New England is the better team to target in this game. Expect a heavy dose of the passing game once again this week, and there are some high-upside options available in Brady, Gronkowski, and Edelman.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Look, Peyton Manning is done. He’s finished. He no longer has the arm strength to fit passes into tight windows, and he relies on defensive mistakes to succeed. He is not going to get those defensive mistakes against a well-prepared Patriots team. I’m not sold. Give me any of the other three signal callers over a washed-up Manning this weekend. He’s got a great mind for the game, but that can’t lead a team to the Super Bowl.
Running Game: Expect Denver to turn to a run-heavy attack once again this week. C.J. Anderson logged 15 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers last week, while Ronnie Hillman was much less effective with 16 carries for 38 yards. This will remain a time-share, but expect Anderson to get the bulk of any crunch time work. There’s plenty of upside here, and Anderson still carries a very reasonable price tag on most sites. If you are targeting any Denver skill player this week, C.J. Anderson is my choice.
Pass Catchers: Well, this goes hand-in-hand with Manning. Emmanuel Sanders is my pick if I HAVE to pick a Denver wide receiver. Bill Belichick loves to scheme to take away the opposing team’s best weapon. I expect rolling coverage to follow Demaryius Thomas around in an effort to limit any potential big plays. Sanders is a bit cheaper and managed a reasonably good 5/85 line last week. I am not going to bother with Vernon Davis or Owen Daniels once again.
The Takeaway: The passing game scares me a lot. The running game is in play. All told, the Patriots are my favorite defense of the four teams going this week. I think they have the best odds of getting a defensive touchdown this week, and I also think they have the best odds to allow the fewest points. That means Denver’s offense is not that appealing.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (written by Notorious)
| Arizona Cardinals | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 6:40 PM ET | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 30.3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | Offense | 31.2 | 1 | 23 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.5 | 6 | 18 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 7 | 10 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 12 | 17 | 15 | 15 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 158 | 117 | 10 | 1,391 | Brown | 59 | 33 | 4 | 507 | |
| Floyd | 96 | 55 | 8 | 875 | Ginn | 98 | 44 | 10 | 810 | |
| Brown | 110 | 70 | 7 | 1,109 | Funchess | 64 | 32 | 5 | 485 | |
| Fells | 30 | 23 | 3 | 325 | Olsen | 130 | 83 | 8 | 1,181 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: David Johnson, RB ARI (toe): Probable / John Brown, WR ARI (shoulder): Probable / Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR (ankle): Probable / Greg Olsen, TE CAR (shoulder): Probable
ARI Matchup Rating: 5.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.0
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: If you didn’t watch last week’s game against the Packers, you will see that Palmer threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns and assume that he torched the Packers’ defense. However, a large portion of that came in overtime. Palmer made a few mistakes and wasn’t nearly as crisp as he was during the regular season. He now has to head to Carolina to take on a Panthers’ defense that was ranked second in pass defense DVOA during the regular season. Palmer has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but the Panthers will look to take away the deep threats with their outstanding corners. I prefer both Cam Newton and Tom Brady over Palmer this week in DFS.
Running Game: When I was watching the Cardinals/Packers game last weekend, it felt like Andre Ellington was on the field for more snaps than he actually was. David Johnson ended up playing on 58 of their 66 plays, so we shouldn’t be concerned with his workload heading into this week’s game against the Panthers. While the matchup is less than ideal, that’s the case with every running back in this slate. Johnson is clearly the top running back overall, as his workload does not depend on game flow. If the Cardinals build a lead, they will lean on Johnson in the running game. If they get behind, he will see a ton of targets in the passing game. He should be a safe bet for 20+ touches, which isn’t the case for any running back in the Patriots/Broncos game.
Pass Catchers: I mentioned last week that it was safe to play Doug Baldwin against the Panthers because he lines up primarily in the slot. While Josh Norman may shadow a receiver every now and then, he rarely travels into the slot (only 2% of his snaps this season). That means that last week’s hero, Larry Fitzgerald, will avoid Norman’s coverage this weekend. In a game where the Cardinals could be playing from behind, we could see another heavy dose of targets thrown his way. He is by far my favorite pass catcher to target from the Cardinals this weekend. Michael Floyd and John Brown will run their routes against Norman and Robert McClain. I’m not too high on Floyd or Brown, but would side with Brown if I had to choose.
The Takeaway: Even though the Cardinals are facing a tough defense on the road, there are still some viable options this week. It all starts with David Johnson, who is clearly the premier running back in this two-game slate. He should be heavily involved running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. I will be avoiding Carson Palmer against this secondary, but the matchups line up well for Larry Fitzgerald, who should be able to avoid Josh Norman’s coverage.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: The Panthers put on a clinic in the first half against the Seahawks. Seattle made a game out of it with a late charge, but at that point, Cam Newton wasn’t really asked to do much. Newton was efficient, completing 16 of his 22 pass attempts for 161 yards and a touchdown. While anything can happen in the NFL, we can’t expect the Panthers to jump out to a four touchdown lead against the Cardinals. The Panthers are going to need a big game from their superstar quarterback if they want to keep their Super Bowl aspirations alive. Newton is the only quarterback left that can make plays with both his arm and his legs, giving him the highest floor of any quarterback. While I always like Tom Brady in the playoffs, Newton checks in as my top quarterback to target this weekend.
Running Game: Jonathan Stewart had a monster fantasy outing against the Seahawks last weekend. He ended up with 19 carries for 106 yards and two touchdowns. He will be a popular play this weekend, but I’m not expecting a repeat performance. The Cardinals were ranked second in run defense DVOA during the regular season and Stewart doesn’t have a big involvement in the passing game. He is more game flow dependent than David Johnson. While I do like the fact that he should see close to 20 touches this week, I don’t mind pairing Johnson with one of the cheaper running backs from the Patriots/Broncos game.
Pass Catchers: Last week, I basically said to target Greg Olsen and avoid the rest of the Panthers’ pass catchers. Obviously, I wasn’t expecting such a blowout, but it was still the right move. Tedd Ginn will likely draw the coverage of Patrick Peterson, who basically shut down James Jones last weekend. That’s not a matchup that the Panthers will look to exploit. Corey Brown and Jerricho Cotchery draw slightly better matchups against Jerraud Powers and Justin Bethel, but I’m not looking for force either receiver into my lineup. Olsen is really the only Panthers’ pass catcher that we should feel confident about rostering this weekend. I am in the minority here, but I actually like Olsen over Rob Gronkowski (who only saw eight targets compared to Julian Edelman 16 last week against the Chiefs).
The Takeaway: Cam Newton has gotten the Panthers this far and they are going to lean on him to take them to the promised land. He is my favorite quarterback play of the week. Jonathan Stewart is also in play here, although I am not as bullish on him as most people in the industry. Greg Olsen should be targeted in all league formats. As long as the Panthers don’t run away with this game, he should be a lock for double-digit targets.