NFL Grind Down: Conference Championships
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Jacksonville Jaguars | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 41 | 16.75 | -13 | 47 | 30 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Offense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 17.4 | 3 | 1 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 27 | 12 | 30 | 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 14 | 5 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Lee | 103 | 59 | 3 | 730 | Cooks | 112 | 63 | 6 | 1,035 | |
| Westbrook | 53 | 32 | 1 | 386 | Hogan | 63 | 35 | 6 | 443 | |
| Cole | 78 | 39 | 3 | 760 | Amendola | 92 | 68 | 2 | 728 | |
| Lewis | 49 | 25 | 5 | 322 | Gronkowski | 114 | 75 | 9 | 1,164 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated when final injury reports are released
JAX Matchup Rating: 4.5
NE Matchup Rating: 6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: The Jaguars are still alive for a trip to the Super Bowl, and I’ll admit that I am becoming a fan of the underdog story. I’m sure the Super Bowl television sponsors and advertisers aren’t all giddy about it, but that’s not of concern to fantasy footballers like us. You might think that Blake Bortles had to have a big game in order for the Jaguars to put up 45 points against the Steelers, but that wasn’t the case. He threw for just 214 yards and one score in the game, as the running game ruled the day. That will likely be the game plan early in this game, but the Jaguars might be forced to the air more this week. However, that’s the same thing I said last week — and Jacksonville proceeded to jump out to a huge lead. Bortles also brings some rushing ability to the table. He might have a higher ceiling than both quarterbacks in the NFC game, but there is a fair share of risk as well. Bortles is a live choice in GPPs, but keep the risk/reward nature in mind when making your decisions.
Running Backs: The running game was on point last week, as the Jaguars rushed for 164 yards and four touchdowns in the Divisional Round win over the Steelers. Leonard Fournette will be a huge key if Jacksonville wants to go to the Super Bowl. He was involved in a minor traffic accident earlier in the week, but it sounds like he escaped any injury in that event. The question becomes: how much will Bill Belichick and the Patriots sell out to stop the rookie running back? Will they put eight men in the box? Nine? It seems clear to me that the game plan should be to force Blake Bortles to throw the ball. Fournette has as much upside as any running back on the slate, but we are also dealing with a salary cap. I’m fine fading him, especially since T.J. Yeldon will snag snaps if the Jaguars get behind. Speaking of Yeldon, he is very much a live tournament option if you are banking on a negative game script for the Jaguars here.
Pass Catchers: There will most likely be some more volume to go around for the Jaguars’ pass catchers this week. The problem becomes trying to figure out which receiver will make the big play. As I wrote last week, it’s impossible to decipher how things will shake out with four receivers in the mix. Marqise Lee led the team in targets against the Steelers, but he saw just six of them in the game. He probably has the highest ceiling if he is fully healthy, while guys like Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole are dependent on perhaps making a big play. In order for this group to pan out in DFS, we need the Jaguars to be playing from behind in this game. If that’s the case, any of their wide receivers can be in play as affordably priced options.
The Takeaway: This offense carries plenty of risk and a relatively low team total, but there is some upside to be had. If you think Jacksonville can keep it competitive for the whole game, Leonard Fournette has the highest ceiling at the RB position this week. If you think the Jags will get waxed, fire up some passing game options as risk/reward GPP plays, but the floor is very low on this group. Of course, the New England defense is also in play here.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady is clearly the class of the four quarterbacks that are still alive; that fact is unquestioned. However, things might not go smoothly against a very good pass defense, and Jacksonville has a very good pass defense. Don’t let recency bias get in the way of that just because Roethlisberger went nuts with a pass-happy game approach last week that was entirely a result of game flow. Brady is the top choice at the position, but I will never call a quarterback a must play against Jacksonville, especially at the massive ownership that Brady will be owned in tournaments. In cash games, you probably just play him and don’t get cute, but there can certainly be a case made to fade him in GPP formats.
Running Backs: James White returned for the Patriots in the Divisional round, but it was still the Dion Lewis show in the backfield. White did punch in a receiving score, but Lewis logged 141 yards on 24 total touches (15 carries and nine catches). This is still Lewis’ job to own, with White mixing in on passing downs. Rex Burkhead might play some, too, if he is able to return this week. I wouldn’t expect a major role for Mike Gillislee even if he is cleared to play. Lewis is the guy you want, while White is a massive risk/reward GPP option. If opting for the cheap RB route, I prefer the flier with Yeldon on the other side of this game (based on projected game flow). Lewis is a rock solid option in all formats.
Pass Catchers: It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville plays this game. It wouldn’t surprise me if they use one of their two elite corners (likely Ramsey) on Rob Gronkowski, with Bouye taking Brandin Cooks. This is merely a theory of mine, but if that happens, you have to consider guys like Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan here. Amendola made a splash in the Divisional round with 11 catches for over 100 yards, and he will likely be over-owned this week because of that. By the process of elimination, I suppose my favorite GPP option is Hogan, but that is a lot of “ifs and buts.” Obviously, Gronkowski is the top overall option at the tight end position, as he will be a tough matchup for any corner, safety, linebacker, or whoever Jacksonville throws at him. As we draw closer to kickoff, keep an eye out for potential news on how the coverage might shake out.
The Takeaway: New England has the highest total on the slate by far, but this matchup is no cake walk. Their offensive weapons will be popular in all formats, from Brady to Lewis to Cooks to Gronkowski. Cooks is my least favorite of the bunch, as he will definitely have to face off with one of Jacksonville’s elite corners. Brady and Gronkowski will be massive chalk at their respective positions, but you can always play the ownership angle in GPP formats. Dion Lewis feels like the safest option of the whole group, with James White being a risk/reward GPP option at best. Danny Amendola will likely be very popular, as well, after his big game in the last round.
| Minnesota Vikings | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | 45.5 | 24.75 | 3 | 41 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Offense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.9 | 4 | 17 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 16.2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 2 | 20 | 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 1 | 13 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thielen | 145 | 91 | 4 | 1,290 | Jeffery | 123 | 60 | 9 | 842 | |
| Diggs | 99 | 64 | 8 | 921 | Agholor | 95 | 62 | 8 | 781 | |
| Treadwell | 32 | 17 | 0 | 184 | Smith | 69 | 39 | 2 | 469 | |
| Rudolph | 86 | 61 | 8 | 557 | Ertz | 113 | 75 | 8 | 832 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Will be updated when final injury reports are released
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: We are wrapping up the Grind Downs for the year with a very strange game. I’ll be totally up front here – I have no idea who to recommend with confidence from this game. The Vegas total is just 39 points. Both teams have top tier defenses and average offenses. If this was a regular season game on a full week slate, we would rush through this game without having a lot of good plays. However, we don’t have that luxury on a two game slate. I consider Keenum as a better quarterback than Nick Foles at this stage, but that is neutralized to some degree by the fact that Keenum is on the road in a tough environment. I like the upside of both quarterbacks in the AFC game a little more for tournaments, but Keenum would be my #2 choice behind Brady in cash games.
Running Backs: Latavius Murray seems to have a comfortable edge on Jerick McKinnon at the moment, as it seems like the coaching staff trusts Murray more with those key carries. Murray is also the strong favorite to get any goal line work. I’m still not ready to give up on the upside of McKinnon, especially since he is a threat to break a big play whenever he touches the ball. McKinnon is very much a live tournament play on a two game slate, since everyone will gravitate toward Murray after seeing the workload from a week ago. Murray is your cash game play, but McKinnon can make waves in GPPs even with just 10 or 12 touches. The tough matchup is a downgrade for both, however.
Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs is now Purple Jesus. Move along, Adrian Peterson. Nobody will ever take Diggs off the pedestal in Minnesota, no matter what he does for the rest of his career. He has quietly been outperforming Adam Thielen in recent weeks, as the latter is a bit banged up. Thielen will certainly get his targets, but Diggs remains an explosive big play threat. I prefer Diggs for the upside, and Diggs comes cheaper than Thielen in DFS as well. Give me Diggs, who should come in with a wave of confidence. Kyle Rudolph is also in play at tight end if you want to bank on a touchdown and can’t quite afford Gronkowski or Ertz.
The Takeaway: This game isn’t all that exciting from a fantasy perspective, but it should be a fun one to watch. It’s like an old fashioned NFC slugfest from the 1990’s. It might very well be a 10-6 type game, but we have to try to pluck out some plays here. My favorite option in all formats is Stefon Diggs, while I will also consider Case Keenum and Latavius Murray in cash games and Jerick McKinnon and Kyle Rudolph in GPP formats.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: It’s impossible for me to endorse Nick Foles against a very good Vikings defense that has a top corner in Xavier Rhodes. The Eagles will likely be conservative with their play calling in the cold winter weather, especially against this Vikings unit. The risk outweighs the reward for me with Foles, and I won’t be rostering him in any format.
Running Backs: Jay Ajayi got off to a blazing start last week against the Falcons, and then Doug Pederson… went to LeGarrette Blount. Ajayi out-carried Blount 15 to 9 in that game, but Blount seems like he is going to get the goal line work. It is difficult to love either player at this point, but I still prefer Ajayi for the big play potential if choosing between the two. Keep in mind that both these teams have time shares at running back, and these two defenses allowed the two fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season. That’s not exactly a recipe for fantasy goodness.
Pass Catchers: Xavier Rhodes will likely see Alshon Jeffery in this game, and we haven’t really seen any upside from Jeffery with Nick Foles under center. There’s obviously risk/reward potential here, and Michael Thomas found the end zone twice a week ago, but I would cross Jeffery off the cash game radar. DraftKings is attempting to dangle the carrot with what has to be nearly a career low $4,600 price tag on Jeffery. If you decide to play him, that is the place to use him. Nelson Agholor is also a reasonable value option, and he carries more appeal if you think Rhodes will lock down Jeffery. The Vikings also ranked 2nd in DVOA this year against the tight end position, so Zach Ertz is not a slam dunk play. However, he definitely carries upside at tight end.
The Takeaway: This game features two of the league’s top defenses, and I don’t see a lot of upside on this side. Between inconsistent quarterback play, scuffling wide receivers, and a time share at running back, nothing is a slam dunk for the Eagles. Give me the Minnesota defense as a top play, with all the Eagles being risk/reward options at best. If I go anywhere, the pass catchers would be my preferred targets.
Lastly, I want to thank all of you for reading and following along all year. Enjoy the games!