NFL Grind Down: Week 10
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Implied Team Totals
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 41.5 | 23.75 | 6 | 41.5 | 17.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.6 | 10 | 2 | 19 | Offense | 17.4 | 26 | 4 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 27 | 25 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 18.6 | 5 | 13 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 28 | 9 | 29 | 15 | Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 6 | 17 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 73 | 49 | 3 | 538 | Fitzgerald | 74 | 50 | 3 | 564 | |
| Richardson | 39 | 25 | 5 | 415 | Brown | 35 | 14 | 2 | 226 | |
| Lockett | 47 | 28 | 0 | 355 | Brown | 42 | 21 | 2 | 314 | |
| Graham | 53 | 33 | 4 | 328 | Gresham | 26 | 17 | 1 | 163 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eddie Lacy (SEA RB) – Out (Groin) / Paul Richardson (SEA WR) – Questionable (Groin) / Earl Thomas (SEA S) – Doubtful (Hamstring)
SEA Matchup Rating: 6.0
ARI Matchup Rating: 2.0
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Russell Wilson has been the entirety of the Seahawks offense over the last month, and that is not going to change anytime this season. This team lacks any semblance of a running game, with Wilson being the most effective option in that department, too. Wilson is becoming a solid matchup-proof fantasy option, and you can make a case for him as a top three quarterback option on a weekly basis. Even though a matchup against the Cardinals seems imposing on the surface, they haven’t been a dominant pass defense this season, and Wilson’s floor is ridiculously high right now. I normally don’t advocate playing a lot of guys from the Thursday night game, but Wilson is an exception to the rule. He is a fine DFS option to kick off the week.
Running Back: The corpse of Eddie Lacy will be sidelined this week, so that’s one less member of this running game that we have to worry about. However, C.J. Prosise is set to return, so he will likely pick up a heavy role on passing down. Thomas Rawls will be the starter, but as we have seen often with this team, that means next to nothing. There has been little production from the running game, and J.D. McKissic will also mix in. If I had to choose one of these options, Rawls would be my selection as a punt play, and he did look “okay” a week ago. That’s about as ringing of an endorsement as I can give. You can certainly leave this unit alone if you don’t feel comfortable.
Pass Catchers: There will likely be some trepidation over Patrick Peterson shadowing Doug Baldwin in this game, but the concern is mild for me. Peterson did not shadow Baldwin in the meeting last December, and Baldwin went absolutely bonkers in that game. While that might lead the Cardinals to send Peterson to cover Baldwin more often, the likely volume is enough to cover some of the risk. Throw in the fact that Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson are banged up, and even more targets could funnel Baldwin’s way. Graham is going to play, but Richardson is trending toward game-time decision status. If he is out, you can upgrade Tyler Lockett as a low-end wide receiver option.
The Takeaway: The easiest way to get exposure to the Seahawks is via the arm and legs of Russell Wilson. He covers an absurdly large portion of the Seattle offense these days given the fact that the running backs have been an unmitigated disaster. Doug Baldwin went nuts in the last head-to-head meeting, and while that might cause the Cardinals to use Patrick Peterson on him more often, the volume makes Baldwin a very safe wide receiver play. Tyler Lockett is also an option, especially if Paul Richardson is forced to sit this game out. Keep an eye on Richardson’s status as we get closer to kickoff on Thursday night. Jimmy Graham is not high on my radar on a short week, and he is a little banged up right now.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Drew Stanton was solid against the 49ers, but he will likely struggle in a much more difficult matchup here. I want no part of him in any format against the Seahawks on a short week, even though Earl Thomas is likely going to sit out again this week. Remember, Stanton’s numbers are nothing short of terrible for his career. Don’t overthink this.
Running Back: Somehow, Adrian Peterson tallied almost 40 touches last week, and he didn’t completely fall apart in the process. That’s a victory in and of itself, and Bruce Arians has not been shy about saying that they will ride Peterson as long as he can handle the workload. The Seahawks have been more vulnerable to the run than the pass this season, making Peterson a solid volume-based option. His price is still surprisingly affordable everywhere, even after his 167 total yard day in Week 9. He’s your best bet for production on this team.
Pass Catchers: It’s difficult to trust any of the Arizona wide receivers with Stanton chucking the ball, especially against a solid Seattle secondary. However, Larry Fitzgerald will be a decent play out of the slot if Earl Thomas is sidelined, which seems likely at this point. He is the only option worth considering here. The other wide receivers were fringe options at best with Carson Palmer at quarterback, and they carry way too much risk with Stanton at the controls now.
The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson is by far the strongest play here. The passing game is largely off limits for me against a solid secondary, but Larry Fitzgerald enters the conversation assuming Earl Thomas can’t go, and Thomas has been listed as doubtful.
| New Orleans Saints | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 46.5 | 24.5 | 2.5 | 46.5 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | Offense | 21.8 | 16 | 30 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.6 | 5 | 24 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 9 | 12 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | 19 | 12 | 21 | New Orleans Saints | 14 | 17 | 10 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 73 | 50 | 2 | 545 | Benjamin | 51 | 32 | 2 | 475 | |
| Ginn | 36 | 28 | 3 | 480 | Matthews | 28 | 21 | 1 | 239 | |
| Coleman | 20 | 14 | 3 | 252 | Jones | 44 | 16 | 1 | 168 | |
| Hill | 8 | 7 | 0 | 61 | Clay | 28 | 20 | 2 | 258 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Zay Jones (BUF WR) – Out (Ankle) / Charles Clay – Questionable (Knee)
NO Matchup Rating: 6.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The alarm bells are going off because Drew Brees is playing on the road this week, but his numbers have been almost dead even in road games and home games this year. Here are his splits:
4 home games = 70.8% completions, 1,104 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT
4 road games = 72.4% completions, 1,110 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
That’s about as even as it gets. The road narrative is a little overblown at this point, but this isn’t necessarily the best of matchups against a Buffalo defense that has been much improved this year. However, they struggled last week against the Jets, and Brees is certainly capable of lighting them up. He’s not the #1 option for me this week, but Brees is certainly in the GPP conversation. He will go under-owned for sure, as he always does when he’s on the road in a non-elite matchup.
Running Back: The New Orleans running game is essentially a 50/50 time share at this point, though the general lean is toward Ingram over Kamara if one gets a slight bump in snaps. However, that might flip if there is a game script in which the Saints fall behind. This game is projected to be close, so it could fall either way. Now that the prices have gone up on both players, I’m not super interested given the time split. The Bills rank inside the top ten teams in the NFL in rush defense this year, allowing just 94 yards per game on the ground. You can make a case for either guy in a GPP, with Kamara getting a boost on full PPR sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft, but neither player is a core piece in Week 10.
Pass Catchers: Michael Thomas was limited at practice on Wednesday with an ankle issue, but it doesn’t sound serious at this point. He has been a fantasy disappointment this year, but I still believe that a big game is coming at some point. He caught eight of his team high 11 targets last week against the Buccaneers, but he just wasn’t able to break off a big gain. That has been a recurring theme in 2017, but Thomas remains on the fantasy radar. He doesn’t crack the list of top receivers in this matchup, but there’s no reason to necessarily steer clear of him, especially on GPP teams where you might be using Brees at quarterback. The other receiving options are quite risky. Coby Fleener has fallen off the map, and the tight ends have basically been eliminated from the game plan. The running backs soak up a decent share of targets instead. Ted Ginn remains a risk/reward big play threat and can be considered in tournament lineups.
The Takeaway: This isn’t necessarily the best spot for the Saints, especially since the game will be played outdoors as winter season approaches in Buffalo. Despite that, the home/road angle with Drew Brees is a little overblown, and Brees always goes under-owned in road games. Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn are both risk/reward pairings as part of a GPP stack. I will be avoiding the running game this week given the time split and now elevated price points on both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor has quietly improved his play over the last few games, and he has picked up his first two rushing touchdowns of the season in those contests. The downfall comes with his limited passing upside, as he has yet to post a 300+ yard passing game this season. The Saints have been better than expected in the secondary this year, largely due to the emergence of Marshon Lattimore. New Orleans ranks 4th in DVOA against the pass this season. Given the lack of options at his disposal, it’s really hard to bank on Taylor as a quarterback selection this week. There are other mid-range and value options that I like a lot better.
Running Back: LeSean McCoy is coming off his worst game of the season, as he had just 12 carries for 25 yards last week against the Jets. Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that he failed to catch a pass in the contest. The Bills continue to involve Mike Tolbert in the offense for no good reason, but I wouldn’t truly fret about McCoy after one poor game. The Saints have been much more vulnerable on the ground this season, so this is a “get right” spot for the Buffalo ball carrier. It stands to reason that a lot of DFS players will ignore McCoy here given last week’s dud and the presence of several good high-end running backs on the slate. This is a really intriguing spot for you GPP specialists out there.
Pass Catchers: As I mentioned above, this unit really isn’t any good. Zay Jones is hurt, so the depth takes quite a hit here. Kelvin Benjamin should help the team moving forward, but he will likely see plenty of the emerging Lattimore in this game. That’s a hard pass for me. Perhaps the targets will funnel to the always frustrating Jordan Matthews, who played on almost every snap against the Jets last week. There’s a 99 out of 100 chance that rostering him is a mistake, but I always get sucked in for a share or two. The price tag is dirt cheap, and Matthews should get a lot of targets by default if this coverage scheme takes shape. Keep an eye on the news as we get closer to Sunday.
The Takeaway: The passing game is largely off limits for me, especially since Kelvin Benjamin will likely see a lot of Marshon Lattimore. LeSean McCoy should be able to rebound from a poor game against the Jets last week, and the way to attack the Saints is via the run. Fire up McCoy with confidence, and he’s a very strong GPP option that will likely go under-owned.
| Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 38.5 | 16.75 | -5 | 38.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 11 | 19 | 21 | Offense | 16.8 | 27 | 32 | 6 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.4 | 13 | 11 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 23.9 | 22 | 21 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 5 | 21 | 15 | 10 | Green Bay Packers | 17 | 27 | 28 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Nelson | 49 | 30 | 6 | 338 | Gentry | 6 | 3 | 0 | 35 | |
| Cobb | 43 | 33 | 1 | 319 | Wright | 34 | 22 | 1 | 259 | |
| Adams | 64 | 37 | 5 | 404 | Inman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Bennett | 38 | 24 | 0 | 233 | Sims | 18 | 9 | 1 | 113 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
GB Matchup Rating: 2.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Mike McCarthy says that he has faith in Brett Hundley, but I’m going to go ahead and call his bluff on that one. He might not be the only problem, but the Packers are not going to win many football games with Hundley back there in place of Aaron Rodgers. Vegas agrees, as the Packers have a meager 16 point implied team total that is the second lowest of any team on the main slate. While Hundley does bring some potential with his legs, he’s not a fantasy option on the road against a decent Bears defense. There are better options out there.
Running Back: Just when you thought Aaron Jones was taking over this backfield, McCarthy played the “just kidding” card on all of us. Jones played on just 33% of the offensive snaps last week, while Ty Montgomery was in on 40% of the plays. Jamaal Williams vultured a late touchdown on his only carry. This is looking to be a hands-off situation for now, and with the offense likely to struggle in this game, there’s no reason to take the risk.
Pass Catchers: No Green Bay pass catcher has logged more than 60 receiving yards in a game since Hundley took over at quarterback, and the Packers are playing on the road on a short week in a cold weather game. The Bears rank 10th in the league in DVOA against the pass this season, so there’s also no reason to look here for any DFS options.
The Takeaway: I have no interest in any Green Bay skill players this week. It feels strange to say that, but the quarterback situation is very dicey without Aaron Rodgers in the mix. As scary as this sounds, the Bears will likely be a very popular defense selection in Week 10, and they have earned some credit for their solid play this year.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Needless to say, this game does not project as a likely shootout, as we have a total under 40 points pegged for this contest. Mitchell Trubisky has a lot of growing to do at the NFL level, and while I think he will be given a little more freedom coming out of the bye, the numbers are pretty ugly at this point. He has yet to throw for 175 yards in a single game and is completing just 47.5% of his passes. He is not a DFS option in any format right now.
Running Back: The bye week was likely music to the ears of Jordan Howard, and I would expect the Bears to ride him early and often in this game. With the Bears favored by a solid five points, we could see a similar workload for Howard that we saw for Adrian Peterson a week ago. Howard isn’t the sexiest DFS play, but he has some stability thanks to his safe volume in these types of matchups. His lack of passing game involvement makes him a risk if the Bears fall behind, but I would be surprised if they fall behind by a large amount in this matchup. Howard is averaging 27 carries and 111 yards per game over the last three contests, but he somehow hasn’t found the end zone in those games. I think that changes this week, and Howard is a fine mid-range DFS play here.
Pass Catchers: Don’t bother with anyone from this unit with Trubisky at quarterback. The wide receivers are a collection of nobodies, and safety net Zach Miller is out for the season after suffering a gruesome leg injury against the Saints. Pass.
The Takeaway: The only DFS option that the Bears have is Jordan Howard, who is a safe, volume-based RB option in Week 10. He hasn’t found the end zone despite being very productive over the past three games, and I think that the touchdown variance will finally be on his side in this one. As long as the Bears don’t fall behind, he should be a fine option here. Howard and the Bears defense make for a solid correlation stack in your GPP contests.
| Cleveland Browns | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 44 | 15.75 | -12.5 | 44 | 28.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.9 | 31 | 24 | 23 | Offense | 25.8 | 8 | 6 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 20 | 26 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 28 | 15 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 12 | 23 | 22 | 11 | Cleveland Browns | 24 | 7 | 9 | 31 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Louis | 45 | 23 | 0 | 292 | Tate | 64 | 50 | 2 | 562 | |
| Treggs | 14 | 5 | 0 | 79 | Jones | 62 | 33 | 5 | 515 | |
| Higgins | 31 | 14 | 0 | 150 | Golladay | 15 | 7 | 2 | 102 | |
| DeValve | 32 | 17 | 1 | 194 | Fells | 17 | 12 | 3 | 123 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kenny Golladay (DET WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)
CLE Matchup Rating: 1.5
DET Matchup Rating: 6.5
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: The Browns carry an implied team total of just 15 1/2 points this week. The only remotely exciting thing here is trying to figure out who they will roll out at quarterback. It’s like opening a stale fortune cookie just to see what it says. The cookie itself is disgusting, but you want to see the fortune for the fun of it. I have no idea how that analogy came about, but it’s more fun than talking about this football team right now.
Running Back: In case you forgot, this team isn’t very good. The Browns have yet to win a game all season. None of their running backs are averaging more than 44 rushing yards per game. Despite the fact that the team has been losing a lot, Duke Johnson hasn’t played on more than 50% of the snaps in a game for the last month. He is no longer all that appealing in PPR formats.
Pass Catchers: No.
The Takeaway: Don’t play anyone from this offense. The Browns might have the worst offense in football, and they are going on the road to face a very strong Detroit team that has been much better defensively this year. The Detroit defense is your best play on this side of the game.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: How about the recent run that we have seen from Matthew Stafford? He has been nothing short of spectacular lately, throwing for 300+ yards in three straight games. He has multiple touchdowns in two of the three, and the only game in which he did not throw a touchdown saw him chuck it for 423 yards. The volume has definitely been there, and Stafford should have his way with a suspect Cleveland secondary. Cleveland’s defense is definitely a pass funnel, as they have allowed 16 passing touchdowns on the year and rank 28th in the DVOA department against the pass. Fire up Stafford as a top option at quarterback this week, with the biggest risk being a potential blowout victory that limits his attempts in the second half.
Running Back: Even though the Browns get a reputation as an awful team, their strength is definitely in rush defense. They lead the league in DVOA against the run and are allowing just 84 rushing yards per game to go along with a league best 2.9 yards per carry. That is impressive when you consider that the team is always trailing. With Detroit’s never-ending time share in the backfield, this group can safely be avoided in all formats on a full slate. There are better options.
Pass Catchers: Both starting Detroit wide receivers have been beneficiaries of Stafford’s recent surge, and Golden Tate hasn’t missed a beat after making a surprisingly quick recovery from a shoulder injury. He’s a supremely safe option on a weekly basis, especially in PPR formats. He has 50 catches on the year and is absolutely trending in the right direction. Jones is the better touchdown-based option, as he leads the team with five touchdown grabs this year. I’ll side with Tate this week, but Jones is a very solid play, especially on FanDuel with the half point PPR scoring. Eric Ebron has seen his snap count plummet to the 50% range, and he is off the DFS radar right now. If Kenny Golladay misses another game, T.J. Jones is on the radar as a punt. He has played on about three quarters of the snaps over the last two games.
The Takeaway: Avoid the running game, but target the passing game with confidence against a weak Cleveland secondary. I expect a fourth straight 300+ yard game from Matthew Stafford, with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones checking in as solid options and potential stack candidates with Stafford in tournaments. Detroit will likely have plenty of success through the air in this one.