NFL Grind Down: Week 17
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Green Bay Packers | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.6 | 19 | 22 | 18 | Offense | 25.0 | 8 | 5 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.3 | 25 | 27 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 21 | 23 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 15 | 31 | 18 | 21 | Green Bay Packers | 25 | 24 | 26 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Nelson | 88 | 53 | 6 | 482 | Tate | 113 | 85 | 4 | 899 | |
| Adams | 118 | 74 | 10 | 885 | Jones | 102 | 57 | 8 | 1,020 | |
| Cobb | 86 | 62 | 3 | 608 | Golladay | 45 | 26 | 2 | 397 | |
| Kendricks | 35 | 18 | 1 | 203 | Ebron | 80 | 52 | 4 | 565 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Aaron Jones (GB RB) – Out (Knee) / Davante Adams (GB WR) – Out (Concussion) / Jordy Nelson (GB WR) – Out (Shoulder)
GB Matchup Rating: 3.0
DET Matchup Rating: 6.5
Green Bay Packers
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention and playing their younger players
Team Breakdown: Greetings, Grinders! Welcome to the Week 17 NFL Grind Down! If you have played NFL DFS for any length of time, you know that this week is a bit of a wild card when it comes to picking rosters. The ideal fantasy plays are less based on matchups and more based on motivation. Some teams have nothing to play for and will still play their starters. Some teams have nothing to play for and will basically treat this like a preseason game. Other teams have everything to play for. However you slice it, motivation is key.
Because of this, I am changing up the format of the Grind Down this week. It also falls more in line with the format of our other Grind Downs. If you prefer the old format, have no fear. I will go back to that format for the playoffs. Going back to what I said in the previous paragraph, motivation is key this week, and the Packers have none. They have mailed it in for the year and are resting key players. The only fantasy viable piece from this team is Jamaal Williams. Aaron Jones got hurt again in Week 16 and is not expected to play in the finale. Williams should get most of the work against a Lions team that has been more vulnerable of late and likely won’t care about this game at all, either.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Jamaal Williams
Detroit Lions
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention and at risk to rest players
Team Breakdown: According to Jim Caldwell, he has “not considered” resting his starters. Most people are interpreting that to mean that the starters will play the entire game. I think that’s a dangerous stance. Keep an eye out for potential news here. Assuming the starters play, the matchup is golden against a Green Bay team that has mailed it in and ranks just 22nd in DVOA against the pass. With several key defensive players sidelined, there’s no reason to fear the matchup. Both Golden Tate and Marvin Jones topped 100 yards in the first meeting, while Theo Riddick is always an asset in PPR formats. Again, the big thing to monitor is news about whether or not anyone will sit. It would not surprise me to see Matthew Stafford end up sitting for this game, given the fact that he has been banged up over the season’s final month.
Elite Plays: Golden Tate
Secondary Plays: Matthew Stafford, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick
| Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.2 | 12 | 27 | 3 | Offense | 30.5 | 2 | 13 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.3 | 6 | 21 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 22.1 | 16 | 14 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11 | 2 | 20 | 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 21 | 10 | 27 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 124 | 66 | 6 | 815 | Jeffery | 118 | 56 | 9 | 781 | |
| Williams | 74 | 51 | 0 | 563 | Agholor | 92 | 59 | 8 | 757 | |
| Beasley | 63 | 36 | 4 | 314 | Smith | 65 | 36 | 2 | 430 | |
| Witten | 84 | 61 | 5 | 543 | Ertz | 108 | 72 | 8 | 800 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Cole Beasley (DAL WR) – Questionable (Illness)
DAL Matchup Rating: 4.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
Dallas Cowboys
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention and at risk to rest players
Team Breakdown: Dallas could come out extremely flat for this game after being eliminated last week, and this game is a true wild card from on both sides. Philadelphia might rest key players on offense and defense, which would make this a very enticing matchup for the Dallas offense. It’s hard to see the team sitting Ezekiel Elliott after he just came back, and Elliott actually has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards despite missing six games. Assuming he plays, Elliott is a top notch option this week. I could see him having a huge game, especially if Philadelphia rests defensive starters. If that happens, you could also make a case for Dak Prescott in GPPs, but I am not all that excited about it. The Dallas receiving corps has been a disaster and is out of play for me no matter the circumstances.
Elite Plays: Ezekiel Elliott
Secondary Plays: Dak Prescott
Philadelphia Eagles
Playoff Scenarios: Clinched #1 seed in NFC. Game is completely meaningless.
Team Breakdown: The Eagles have not announced their plans for this week. If the coaching staff decides to treat this like a preseason game, playing the starters for a while before benching them, it becomes really hard to trust anyone from this team. I don’t envision a scenario where the starters will get a full complement of snaps. If the starters don’t play at all, we could get some potential value here. Keep an eye on this situation as we get closer to game day, and I will update this article as appropriate.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: TBA – Possible value if starters are rested for entire game
| Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 39.5 | 13 | -13.5 | 39.5 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.0 | 32 | 25 | 19 | Offense | 25.2 | 7 | 2 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.9 | 5 | 5 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 25.5 | 30 | 18 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 16 | 9 | 3 | Cleveland Browns | 29 | 15 | 13 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Coleman | 51 | 22 | 2 | 287 | Smith-Schuster | 69 | 49 | 6 | 774 | |
| Gordon | 36 | 14 | 1 | 220 | Bryant | 77 | 44 | 3 | 538 | |
| Higgins | 46 | 24 | 0 | 244 | Rogers | 35 | 17 | 1 | 148 | |
| DeValve | 57 | 33 | 1 | 395 | James | 62 | 41 | 3 | 363 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Antonio Brown (PIT WR) – Out (Calf)
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 8.5
Cleveland Browns
Playoff Scenarios: They were eliminated before the season started.
Team Breakdown: It is Week 17 and the Browns have not won a single game. The Steelers should play to win on the other side as they still have a shot at the top seed in the AFC. It’s also worth noting that we have a full main slate for the first time all season. There is no Thursday night game. There is no Sunday night game. There is no Monday night game. As such, given the 16 game slate, I have little to no interest in this Cleveland offense. Josh Gordon could certainly break a big play, but his opportunity is limited by the abysmal quarterback play from this team.
Elite Plays: Steelers defense
Secondary Plays: Josh Gordon
Pittsburgh Steelers
Playoff Scenarios: Already clinched first-round bye in AFC playoffs. Clinches #1 seed with a win and a New England loss. The Steelers should still play to win.
Team Breakdown: Pittsburgh can still get the top seed if they win and the Patriots lose. Although that scenario is unlikely, as the Patriots probably won’t lose to Bryce Petty and the Jets, it’s still a possibility. The biggest worry here would be if the Patriots jump out to, say, a 28-0 halftime lead. In that scenario, we could see Pittsburgh pull the plug early on their starters. Assuming that doesn’t happen, the skill players get a mouth-watering matchup against the woeful Browns. With Antonio Brown still on the shelf, usage should continue to flow through Le’Veon Bell and the two starting wide receivers in Martavis Bryant and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Given their relative current prices, I’ll give Bryant the edge. You could potentially get away with a GPP fade of this team if you want to bank on New England grabbing a big lead in their game. I would also be a bit cautious with cash game exposure to the Steelers, limiting myself to just one skill player from this squad.
THURSDAY UPDATE – Well, this escalated quickly. Apparently, the Steelers are holding out zero hope that the Patriots will lose to the Jets, and/or they think they can beat the Browns with their reserves. They are debating rulin Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell out of this game. With James Conner also out, it could be the Stevan Ridley show in the backfield. Landry Jones will be under center, but his NFL numbers are underwhelming at best. The good news is that this is a tasty matchup against the Browns. I am not sure what to do with the receiving corps at this point, and they are probably best left alone. Keep an eye out for confirmation about the status of the stars here.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Landry Jones, Stevan Ridley
| Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 41 | 18.5 | -4 | 41 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.7 | 16 | 20 | 11 | Offense | 16.1 | 30 | 29 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.1 | 31 | 29 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 27.6 | 32 | 26 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 26 | 25 | 25 | 23 | Houston Texans | 30 | 8 | 29 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 174 | 96 | 13 | 1,378 | Hilton | 103 | 54 | 4 | 952 | |
| Fuller | 48 | 26 | 7 | 406 | Moncrief | 47 | 26 | 2 | 391 | |
| Miller | 25 | 17 | 1 | 153 | Rogers | 33 | 21 | 1 | 245 | |
| Anderson | 51 | 24 | 1 | 338 | Doyle | 103 | 76 | 3 | 652 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU WR) – Out (Calf)
HOU Matchup Rating: 4.5
IND Matchup Rating: 4.5
Houston Texans
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention
Team Breakdown: This game matters to nobody and could potentially get that preseason treatment. The Texans have had awful quarterback play since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and we can’t trust the passing game despite a great matchup. Naturally, DeAndre Hopkins is still an elite play. He has still been dominant even in difficult matchups, and the Colts have nobody capable of covering him. As long as the Texans just throw it up to him a few times, Hopkins should have a big day. The other receivers simply can’t be trusted at this point. Neither can the running game, as Alfred Blue has actually been running better than Lamar Miller over the last few games.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Hopkins is setting up as a game time decision with a calf injury. Keep an eye on this. If he is out, Will Fuller could be a viable option against the Colts as the new #1 receiver
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: DeAndre Hopkins (if active), Will Fuller (if Hopkins is out)
Indianapolis Colts
Playoff Scenarios: Eliminated from playoff contention
Team Breakdown: The Colts draw a very favorable matchup here against a deteriorating Texans defense that had no answer for the Steelers on Monday. I expect the Colts to have some success moving the ball, especially with the Texans on a short week. Nobody makes it to elite play status, but I don’t mind the likes of T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle for some GPP upside in Week 17. Houston ranks 23rd in the league in DVOA against #1 wide receivers and 26th in DVOA against tight ends. Even Frank Gore might be on the radar as a reasonably priced running back option. I expect the Colts to give more effort in this meaningless game since they are playing at home, so I prefer their players to Houston’s.
Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Frank Gore, T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle