NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Four
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Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
| Dallas Cowboys | San Francisco Niners | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.7 | 11 | 21 | 6 | Offense | 24.3 | 14 | 32 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 10 | 21 | 10 | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco Niners | 19 | 15 | 14 | 27 | Dallas Cowboys | 22 | 12 | 13 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 23 | 11 | 1 | 150 | Smith | 20 | 8 | 1 | 103 | |
| Williams | 8 | 7 | 0 | 122 | Patton | 15 | 9 | 0 | 93 | |
| Beasley | 25 | 20 | 0 | 213 | Kerley | 23 | 12 | 0 | 114 | |
| Witten | 20 | 14 | 0 | 142 | McDonald | 7 | 5 | 2 | 93 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Dez Bryant (DAL WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Vance McDonald (SF TE) – Questionable (Hip)
DAL Matchup Rating: 6.5
SF Matchup Rating: 4.5
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Dak Prescott finally has a touchdown pass, but it’s not like he has been playing terrible football over the season’s first three weeks. He has looked poised at the reins of the Dallas offense, and he has a couple of rushing touchdowns. The Dallas crew gets a boost here with the up-tempo pace of Chip Kelly’s 49ers, and Prescott definitely has some intrigue this week. I would have expected him to be a tad more expensive on both of the major sites.
Running Backs: There is an incorrect narrative going around right now that Ezekiel Elliott is losing work to Lance Dunbar and Alfred Morris. The “vultured” touchdowns were a fluke thing last week, and Elliott did get a carry inside the ten yard line. It was primarily a function of them resting him for a bit after he led the team down the field. He has logged at least 20 carries in every single game, and he got THIRTY of them last week, which he turned into 140 yards. He has also scored twice already this year. He is a top five running back option this week and should be targeted with confidence in a great matchup.
Pass Catchers: It’s really strange, but Dak Prescott loves throwing the ball to Cole Beasley. What a sentence that is. Beasley led the team in targets once again in Week 3, catching all seven passes thrown his way. Dez Bryant has been up-and-down so far, and he is dealing with an injury that might affect his status for this week’s game. If Dez happens to sit out, give Beasley and tight end Jason Witten a huge upgrade in this one. The pass catchers are definitely in play against a mediocre San Francisco defense that is almost always on the field a lot thanks to the team’s offensive struggles.
The Takeaway: Seattle showed how you can exploit this San Francisco team last week. Dak Prescott is a mobile quarterback in the mold of Russell Wilson, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him have his best NFL game to date in this one. He is near the top of the value quarterback list this week. Ezekiel Elliott is a top tier play at running back, and the receivers are in play as well.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Blaine Gabbert was 14-for-25 for 119 yards and an interception last week. If you are even reading this little paragraph, why are you wasting your time? Move along.
Running Backs: Carlos Hyde was the lone bright spot for this team in last week’s drubbing, rushing the ball 21 times for 103 yards and a pair of touchdowns. They kept feeding him the ball despite trailing 30-3 entering the fourth quarter, which was a little bizarre. This game should at least be more competitive, and Hyde is the only San Francisco player worth considering.
Pass Catchers: If you tell me you are confident in any one San Francisco pass catcher, I am confident that you are a liar. Somehow, eight different 49ers caught passes last week, even though Gabbert only completed 14 passes in the game. That’s impressive. That’s the only good thing I can say.
The Takeaway: The fast-paced nature at which Chip Kelly likes to play is not a good fit for this roster. It will make them prone to mistakes, and it makes defenses intriguing targets against them. The Dallas defense and Carlos Hyde are the only targets I have on this side.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
| Kansas City Chiefs | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.0 | 17 | 17 | 21 | Offense | 21.7 | 19 | 14 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.0 | 14 | 30 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 16.3 | 6 | 10 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 | 28 | 7 | 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 22 | 8 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 29 | 15 | 1 | 166 | Brown | 40 | 24 | 2 | 305 | |
| Conley | 16 | 9 | 0 | 102 | Wheaton | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wilson | 8 | 5 | 0 | 12 | Coates | 12 | 7 | 0 | 203 | |
| Kelce | 21 | 17 | 1 | 197 | James | 16 | 10 | 1 | 70 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Charcandrick West (KC RB) – Out (Ankle) / Jamaal Charles (KC RB) – Questionable (Knee) / Tamba Hali (KC LB) – Questionable (Knee) / Eli Rogers (PIT WR) – Out (Toe) / Ryan Shazier (PIT LB) – Out (Knee)
KC Matchup Rating: 5.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 6.0
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Alex Smith is a perfect fit for this Kansas City football team. He’s just not a fantasy star. He was steady in throwing for 237 yards and a touchdown last week against the Jets, but he is rarely asked to win football games with his arm. That could change to some extent this week, as the Chiefs are five point underdogs in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have been vulnerable against the pass this year, as only the Raiders have allowed more passing yards. It’s not the worst play in the world to go with Alex Smith this week, but if you do that in a GPP you almost have to pair him with a pass catcher to get exposure to a little more upside.
Running Backs: As of Wednesday evening, it sounds like Jamaal Charles is not going to be ready for this week’s game. That is good news for Spencer Ware, who will get at least one more week as the clear-cut feature back. He continues to dominate the carries for this team, as he logged 20 of them last week compared to just three for Charcandrick West. We prefer to attack the Steelers via the passing game, which makes Ware a fringe mid-range option this week.
Pass Catchers: Travis Kelce broke out with his best game of the season against the Jets, finishing with a 6/89/1 line that could have been better if the game had stayed close. Jeremy Maclin is the only other reliable target on this team, and he finally has a matchup where he has a good chance to perform well. I love Maclin as a buy low target this week, and he is one of my favorite GPP targets at wide receiver.
The Takeaway: I really like Jeremy Maclin in this game, and you can even pair him with Alex Smith in a GPP if you are feeling super frisky. Alternatively, you can play Maclin on his own. Travis Kelce is a fine play at tight end, while Spencer Ware is a fringy option in a less favorable matchup, though it looks like he will get the backfield all to himself again this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Jamaal Charles has been upgraded to questionable this week, while Charcandrick West is now out. The fact that Charles may play combined with the late start of this game makes Spencer Ware a much riskier option in all day contests.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: The Steelers were quite possibly the biggest disappointment in Week 3, getting throttled against the Eagles and rookie signal-caller Carson Wentz. I am not going to get bent out of shape over one game. Ben Roethlisberger is still a fine fantasy target, but this is a sketchy matchup against a Kansas City defense that picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times a week ago. Big Ben is definitely in play, but he is far from a must play.
Running Backs: Well, this is going to be interesting. DeAngelo Williams has been one of the top running backs in fantasy football so far this season, but his performance deteriorated last week and now Le’Veon Bell is returning. Mike Tomlin has indicated that Bell is not going to be eased in, and the team is happy with Bell’s conditioning. That basically means it’s going to be all systems go from the start. He is back, and he is a top tier running back option. This might be the only chance to get him at a low ownership percentage, as some folks will undoubtedly be scared of taking him for less than a full workload. It doesn’t sound like the workload is something we need to worry about.
Pass Catchers: Bell, like Williams in previous weeks, will get his share of targets in the passing game. Outside of that, Antonio Brown continues to be the primary target for Roethlisberger. Even in a terrible team performance last week, Brown still managed to see 18 targets, catching 12 of them and racking up 140 yards in the process. The rest of the receiving corps is too unpredictable to trust, and Jesse James is losing some appeal at tight end as he is being asked to block more often.
The Takeaway: Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown make quite the fantasy trio on this team. This is a tough matchup, but the Steelers can’t possibly play as bad as they did in Philadelphia last week. The “big three” are all viable in any format, and the likely low ownership on Bell makes him particularly appealing in tournament formats.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
| New York Giants | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 43 | 19.5 | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.0 | 22 | 7 | 19 | Offense | 21.3 | 20 | 27 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 13.3 | 3 | 12 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 11 | 15 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 17 | 8 | 5 | 16 | New York Giants | 9 | 3 | 20 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Beckham | 30 | 19 | 0 | 280 | Diggs | 27 | 20 | 1 | 325 | |
| Shepard | 19 | 16 | 2 | 233 | Johnson | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 | |
| Cruz | 15 | 11 | 1 | 195 | Thielen | 14 | 11 | 0 | 124 | |
| Donnell | 11 | 8 | 1 | 50 | Rudolph | 26 | 14 | 2 | 166 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Will be updated on Sunday morning
NYG Matchup Rating: 3.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.0
New York Giants
Quarterback: This Vikings defense is legitimately good. They have shut down Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton over the past two weeks, and that is no small feat. If those two quarterbacks have been shut down by this defense, why should we trust Eli Manning on the road in prime time against the Vikings? If you are playing the Primetime or Monday/Thursday slate, I suppose he has to be considered – but I don’t love it.
Running Backs: The Giants are dealing with some injuries in their backfield. Shane Vereen is going to miss the rest of the season, and Rashad Jennings was a surprise scratch last week with a thumb injury. For now, let’s assume that Jennings remains sidelined. If that is the case, Orleans Darkwa is a great value at minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He would be a borderline must play on the short slates. If Jennings returns and starts, my interest in both wanes quite a bit. The Giants are pegged for just under 20 points in this game.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham did manage to grab seven passes for 121 yards last week, but he still hasn’t found the end zone all season. Sterling Shepard did find the end zone again, catching five of seven targets for 73 yards in the process. His quick evolution is hurting Beckham’s upside, though there is room for both to succeed. This just isn’t an ideal spot against that swarming Vikings defense. You can consider either guy as a boom or bust GPP option.
The Takeaway: I don’t have a ton of interest in the Giants as they travel to Minnesota to take on one of the better defenses in the league on Monday night. The Vikings defense is a strong play in this one, while Orleans Darkwa can be used as a value play for the Giants if Rashad Jennings can’t go for the second straight week.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Sam Bradford must be loving life right now. The Vikings defense and special teams units continue to score touchdowns, making Bradford’s job a heck of a lot easier in the process. The Vikings barely cracked 200 yards of total offense against the Panthers, and they still won by 12! There’s not enough upside for me to consider Bradford in any format.
Running Backs: The Vikings have been a disaster in this department so far this year, ranking dead last in the league in rushing yards, even behind Jacksonville. They are averaging just 51 rushing yards per game. Jerick McKinnon saw around 60% of the snaps last week, but he averaged less than three yards per carry and only caught one pass. He will be better in some weeks, and he is an intriguing cheap option on the slates where you can use him.
Pass Catchers: Stefon Diggs is an elite wide receiver in this league, and his price is only slowing climbing. He still sits at $7,100 on FanDuel and $6,100 on DraftKings, and those are bargains. Kyle Rudolph is also emerging with Bradford at quarterback, and he led the team with seven catches for 70 yards on ten targets a week ago. The matchup is decent this week against a Giants squad ranked 15th against the pass.
The Takeaway: Jerick McKinnon is still a nice value at running back, while Diggs and Rudolph can be targeted in the passing game. I don’t see enough upside in Bradford to use him, though. The good news is that so many targets funnel to Diggs and Rudolph, which gives them some upside even though their quarterback doesn’t have much.
