NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Two

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers St. Louis Rams
49ers Rams
Sunday – 1 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
8.5 39.5 15.5 -8.5 39.5 24
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 14.7 32 28 10 Offense 18.0 31 32 16
Opp. Defense 19.8 10 18 14 Opp. Defense 25.7 22 31 21
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
St. Louis Rams 2 20 6 8 San Francisco 49ers 26 28 30 17
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Boldin 54 31 2 372 Britt 24 12 1 224
Smith 26 14 2 323 Austin 32 20 4 307
Patton 19 12 1 131 Quick 4 1 0 10
Davis 22 12 0 170 Cook 32 17 0 188


The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Carlos Hyde (SF, Questionable), Tre Mason (STL, Questionable)

SF Matchup Rating: 1.0
STL Matchup Rating: 5.0

San Francisco 49ers

colin kaepernick

Quarterback: It is hard to imagine a team with a lower matchup rating this season than the 1.0 the 49ers have earned this week. They’re facing a very tough defense combined with an opposing offense that plays at a slow pace, and they’ve been terrible this season on offense themselves. There is no reason to target Colin Kaepernick (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) in any format on any site.

Running Game: Carlos Hyde (FD $6,200, DK $4,400) is not fully healthy, and even if he was, he’s facing a run defense that’s ranked in the top six by Football Outsiders and numberFire. The 49ers are big underdogs on the road in a game with a low total, so there’s nothing to like about this running game, even if it was an otherwise favorable matchup.

Pass Catchers: Vernon Davis (FD $4,900, DK $2,900) and Anquan Boldin (FD $6,000, DK $4,400) are the pass catchers who see enough volume to justify any sort of consideration, but neither is in play in this very difficult matchup. The Niners will be lucky to score two touchdowns, and trying to figure out who those will come from isn’t an exercise I want to try out this week.

The Takeaway: The 49ers have a low total in what should be a slow game against a good defense on the road. There may not be many worse situations for an offense than this.

St. Louis Rams

Quarterback: The metrics at numberFire have deemed the 49ers as the worst defense in the NFL, and the Football Outsiders agree. They’re among the top ten in points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and receivers, and no team allows more plays or yards per drive than San Francisco. But Nick Foles (FD $6,200, DK $5,100) isn’t trustworthy in even the best of spots, and the team is going to limit his opportunities to allow the running game to continue to control the clock and pick up big chunks of yards. He’s a tournament dart at best, but with only one game over 200 yards and only one game with more than one passing touchdown, there’s a high chance of a letdown.

todd gurley

Running Game: Todd Gurley (FD $8,100, DK $6,300) is a very good football player. The Rams don’t have many of those. And while their coach has admitted the team can’t rely on Gurley alone, they can certainly try this week against the bottom-five run defense from San Francisco. Gurley has over 20 touches and over 150 total yards in each of his last three appearances, so as long as he finds the end zone, he’ll be a great investment again this week, even at his increased price. He’s viable in all formats on all sites.

Pass Catchers: Tavon Austin (FD $5,300, DK $4,600) and Jared Cook (FD $5,200, DK $2,600) are the most reliable sources of volume in this passing game, and if you have a gut feeling about the St. Louis air attack, they’re the guys you want in your lineups. I’ll be sticking with Gurley for the most part, but either of these pass catchers could score a touchdown and return value.

The Takeaway: Todd Gurley should have another huge game against a bad defense, while the passing game presents some sneaky tournament plays that come with a lot of risk. The defense is once again a great option against a terrible San Francisco offense that gets sacked often and is prone to turnovers.


New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

New York Giants New Orleans Saints
Giants Saints
Sunday – 1 p.m. Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
3 49 23 -3 49 26
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.7 11 13 23 Offense 23.0 15 2 20
Opp. Defense 26.4 25 26 28 Opp. Defense 22.3 14 29 20
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New Orleans Saints 31 22 16 27 New York Giants 10 23 14 28
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Beckham Jr. 66 42 4 527 Colston 31 19 0 220
Randle 37 26 2 329 Cooks 58 35 1 444
Harris 21 15 1 195 Snead 45 29 1 461
Donnell 40 28 2 201 Watson 38 29 2 325


The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Rueben Randle, “(player-popup)Odell Beckham Jr.”:/players/odell-beckham-jr-18222 (NYG, Probable)

NYG Matchup Rating: 6.0
NO Matchup Rating: 7.0

New York Giants

eli manning

Quarterback: Eli Manning (FD $7,300, DK $6,600) has posted some impressive performances this season, but he’s also shown how low his floor can be with two touchdown-free games, and another game with one score and under 200 yards. Even in a game which should feature plenty of scoring, I can’t trust Eli in cash games, but would happily roll him in out in tournaments against a New Orleans defense that has allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Brandon Weeden is the only quarterback to not score twice against the Saints, who rank 30th according to Football Outsiders and 27th according to numberFire when it comes to pass defense.

Running Game: With the introduction of Orleans Darkwa (FD $5,100, DK $3,600) to the running back fold, the most frustrating, pointlessly crowded backfield in the NFL gets even more frustrating and crowded. The Saints are a defense to target with running backs, but who do play from the Giants? The answer is no one. Avoid this situation entirely.

Pass Catchers: “(player-popup)Odell Beckham Jr.”:/players/odell-beckham-jr-18222 (FD $8,700, DK $8,500) is still working his way back from a hamstring injury, and will face a rising star at corner in Delvin Breaux this weekend. I don’t think it’s possible for Breaux to totally shut down Beckham, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of the New Orleans corner limiting the upside of the star receiver. Beckham is a tournament option thanks to his theoretical upside in any matchup as one of the league’s best receivers, but don’t go crazy with such a talented corner on the other side of the field. Rueben Randle (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) and Larry Donnell (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) are the other passing game targets to consider, but both are incredibly inconsistent, and only viable in GPPs.

The Takeaway: The Giants have what appears to be a good matchup, but the uncertainty of their backfield and the inconsistency of their passing game leaves a lot to be desired from a DFS standpoint. Manning, Beckham, Randle and Donnell all make sense in tournaments.

New Orleans Saints

drew brees

Quarterback: There is a player wearing the number “9” jersey for the Saints this year, but very rarely has that player looked like Drew Brees (FD $7,900, DK $6,700). One glance at his stats and DFS prices will confirm what those who’ve watched him have figured out… he’s just not the same player he once was. His touchdown rate is at its lowest point since 2003, and while he’s not throwing interceptions, he’s also not quite as accurate as he once was, leading to an overall drop in efficiency. Typically, in a neutral matchup like the one he has this week against the Giants, I’d be considering Brees strongly for DFS contests. Add in the fact that this is a home game and he’d be a lock for a few of my lineups. But there’s just something that isn’t right about Brees, and I can’t go all-in on him like I normally would at these prices in this situation. The Giants are an average pass defense (12th in Football Outsiders, 20th in numberFire), but Brees has been incredibly average this season as well. He’s a tournament play only, and not the best one you can find this weekend.

Running Game: Khiry Robinson (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) seriously cut into the playing time of Mark Ingram (FD $8,000, DK $6,400) last weekend and picked up two touchdowns in short-yardage situations in place of the Alabama product. Robinson had been receiving a steady diet of 6-10 touches per game, but his 15 opportunities against Indianapolis were a season-high. Ingram outsnapped Robinson by a healthy amount, but if the Saints are going to feed Robinson when he’s in the game, and not give Ingram the same ratio of opportunities to snaps, then it’s possible Ingram isn’t as big of a part of the plans for the Saints as we would have hoped or expected. Ingram is still the best back on the roster, and Giants are prone to giving up big days on the ground (they’ve allowed three rushers to go over 90 yards and a touchdown in their last three games), so feel free to roster him in tournaments, but stick to backs with more stable workloads (Freeman, Forte, Gurley, etc.) in cash games.

Pass Catchers: Brandin Cooks (FD $6,800, DK $5,400) dominated the targets for the Saints last week, and while he only turned his 13 targets into six catches, he’s still clearly the top option in the New Orleans receiving corps. Willie Snead (FD $5,800, DK $4,500) remains second in line, with Benjamin Watson (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) playing fairly well at tight end. You’ll want to restrict your exposure to the passing game to one of those three, and considering the way the Saints are able to move receivers around in the formation, I’m not sure there’s one with a “matchup” we can target more than any other. We don’t want the receiver matched up with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie if at all possible, as Jayron Hosley and Trevin Wade are much more beatable. Wade plays in the slot, where Cooks and Snead both spend a quarter to a third of their snaps per Pro Football Focus, while Hosley plays opposite of DRC, meaning he’ll see equal amounts of Snead and Cooks, if history repeats itself. I like Cooks for the target security, but you can’t go wrong with any of these guys, including Watson, who faces a defense that couldn’t contain Jason Witten in either matchup this year, allowing over 130 yards and two scores to the veteran tight end.

The Takeaway: The Saints passing game should see a nice opportunity to move the ball, but figuring out who to target is a challenge, especially with how relatively poorly Brees is playing. Ingram is the top option out of the backfield, but the rotation at that position means he’s not trustable for cash games.


Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears
Vikings Bears
Sunday – 1 p.m. Soldier Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-1 42 21.5 1 42 20.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 20.7 26 30 11 Offense 20.0 28 29 22
Opp. Defense 29.8 31 5 25 Opp. Defense 17.0 2 12 13
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Chicago Bears 28 13 26 4 Minnesota Vikings 7 5 8 25
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Wallace 38 26 1 292 Jeffery 22 13 1 225
Diggs 28 19 1 333 Royal 33 23 1 169
Johnson 10 7 0 67 Wilson 30 17 1 288
Rudolph 30 18 3 123 Bennett 53 34 2 292


The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Adrian Peterson, Charles Johnson (MIN, Probable)

MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 2.5

Minnesota Vikings

teddy bridgewater

Quarterback: Now that Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,900, DK $5,100) has a rising star at receiver who can reliably get open, catch the ball and create big plays, his upside has taken a bit of a step forward. One game against the Lions isn’t enough to declare him to be a must-play moving forward, but going over 300 yards and throwing two touchdowns were both firsts on the season for the Louisville product, and now he’ll face a similarly challenged defense from Chicago. Football Outsiders’ DVOA determines the Bears to rank 26th against the pass in the NFL, and they’ve allowed three or more touchdown passes in half of their games so far this year. There will be a couple of popular plays on the Minnesota offense that we’ll discuss in a bit, but I don’t think Bridgewater is going to be that heavily targeted. He’s a fine tournament play, but I still don’t trust his floor enough for cash game use.

Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $8,900, DK $7,400) has been incredibly boom or bust this season, with a handful of big runs but not a lot of consistent production otherwise. He has 14 carries of ten or more yards that have resulted in 336 of his 530 yards. That means the other 106 carries amount to under 200 yards, including 36 carries that resulted in no gain or a loss of yards. This shouldn’t steer you away from Peterson, as the Bears have allowed an average of three carries of ten or more yards per game this season. Also, Peterson leads the NFL in rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, yet only has one touchdown in those situations. For comparison, Devonta Freeman has seven touchdowns in two fewer carries inside the opponent’s 10. His red zone role and big play potential have him near the top of the tournament upside list, and he’s cash game viable, but that’s not the route I’m most likely to choose this weekend.

Pass Catchers: It’s no secret that Stefon Diggs (FD $6,700, DK $4,800) is a really good football player, and it’s also no secret that the Bears are terrible at defending the pass. And while we might not see Todd Gurley-like ownership numbers for Diggs, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was the highest owned player this weekend outside of Gurley. The Maryland product showed big play potential on his diving touchdown reception last week, and has secured a role as a top target for Teddy Bridgewater with nine passes thrown his way in each of his first three appearances. According to Football Outsiders, the Bears are a great matchup for all sorts of wide receivers, ranking 25th or worse against every level of opposing wideout. Whether he sees the coverage of Tracy Porter or Kyle Fuller, he’ll have the upper hand. Chicago has allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing wideouts this season, and Diggs has the best odds of being the Minnesota player to add to that total. Mike Wallace (FD $5,300, DK $4,200) has seen his role directly impacted by the emergence of Diggs, but he’s still a way to get lower ownership exposure to this passing game, while Kyle Rudolph (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) does not have anything resembling a safe floor, but does have upside as a red zone target for Bridgewater. He leads the team with seven looks inside the opponent’s 20, and five inside the opponent’s 10. Those are huge numbers, as the team usually turns to Peterson in the red zone, but it’s good enough for tournament consideration.

The Takeaway: Stefon Diggs is going to be one of the top players this weekend in terms of ownership, and I think you should follow the masses in cash games. For tournaments, Bridgewater, Peterson, and even Wallace and Rudolph all have appeal against a Chicago defense that is absolutely terrible.

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: Jay Cutler (FD $7,300, DK $5,200) and the Bears will face a Minnesota defense this week that isn’t as good as their DvP numbers suggest, but may not be “bad” either. The Vikings have the seventh-toughest defense from a points allowed perspective against quarterbacks, but Football Outsiders ranks them 18th against the pass, while numberFire has them 11th. Slot corner Captain Munnerlyn and safety Harrison Smith are fantastic players, and the Vikings have a couple of players who can get after the passer, so there’s not lacking in talent to defend the pass, either. No quarterback has thrown for more than two touchdowns against them, and none have reached the 300-yard mark, either. However, Cutler is very cheap and has healthier weapons than he’s had all season, and it’s hard to not like him in tournaments this weekend. But there’s a very wide range of outcomes here, and he’s not trustworthy enough for cash games.

matt forte

Running Game: After taking a few weeks off from his regular trips to the end zone, Matt Forte (FD $8,200, DK $7,300) has scored in two straight games, and while his overall yardage totals haven’t been mind-blowing, he’s been good enough to get a decent return on investment in every game not played against the Seattle Seahawks or Arizona Cardinals. Minnesota has a strong DvP ranking against the run, but Football Outsiders and numberFire both suggest that number is a bit inflated compared to their underlying statistics. Also, Football Outsiders ranks the Minnesota defense as 30th at defending running backs in the passing game, and while the fantasy numbers don’t back that up, it could only be a matter of time before a team has a breakout game from a back through the air. If anyone is going to do that, it’s Forte. He’s got the volume and role you can trust in any format on any weekend when he’s not facing an elite defense.

Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,700, DK $6,400) returned from injury to receive 11 targets and find the end zone in Week 6, and now with a bye week behind him, he gets a matchup against the very beatable Xavier Rhodes (graded as a below-replacement-level player so far this season by Pro Football Focus, allowing .27 fantasy points per route run against him). He’s in play in all formats on all sites, with his role and price on DraftKings standing out as a near must-play. Martellus Bennett (FD $5,700, DK $4,900) will face a defense that is among the ten most favorable matchups for tight ends according to fantasy points allowed and Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and is also in play in any format. I can’t imagine straying from that duo when getting exposure to Chicago pass catchers considering how many targets they soak up.

The Takeaway: Just like the good old days, Cutler, Forte, Jeffery and Bennett are your top plays for the Bears.


San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

San Diego Chargers Baltimore Ravens
Chargers Ravens
Sunday – 1 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
3 50 23.5 -3 50 26.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.6 12 1 28 Offense 23.0 15 10 17
Opp. Defense 26.9 26 30 10 Opp. Defense 28.3 27 8 31
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Baltimore Ravens 32 14 31 5 San Diego Chargers 14 32 4 18
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Allen 84 62 3 690 Smith 66 41 3 588
Floyd 34 17 1 317 Aiken 38 19 2 271
Johnson 33 22 2 255 Brown 28 13 0 106
Gates 27 18 2 187 Gillmore 26 18 2 234


The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Antonio Gates (SD, Doubtful), Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson (SD, Probable), Steve Smith (BAL, Probable)

SD Matchup Rating: 6.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 7.5

San Diego Chargers

Quarterback: The Ravens have a ton of trouble stopping opposing passing games. Five of seven quarterbacks they’ve faced have scored multiple touchdowns, and all five had at least 275 yards passing. They’ve allowed more points than any other team to quarterbacks in fantasy football, and are a cupcake matchup for Philip Rivers (FD $8,500, DK $6,600) and company. Rivers already has nearly 2500 passing yards this season, including over 330 in each of his last four games. He’s throwing the ball a ton, with over 120 attempts combined in his last two starts. A guy who throws often against a defense that can’t stop the pass? Recipe for success. Even if the west-to-east travel causes the Bolts to start slow, they can do a lot in garbage time, as we saw last weekend. Rivers is a top option in any format this week.

Running Game: Danny Woodhead (FD $6,100, DK $4,500) is the best and healthiest back on the roster for the Chargers, and continues to be priced at a level that doesn’t reflect his valuable role in this offense. He’s second on the team in targets, and second in rushing attempts. He has 16 rushing attempts and six targets in the red zone this season, no other back on the roster has more than three combined targets and rushes. The Ravens have a fairly tough run defense (tenth in DVOA), but Woodhead has a unique role that provides him with value in this game.

keenan allen

Pass Catchers: Keenan Allen (FD $8,000, DK $7,700) is a target magnet, receiving ten or more passing attempts in his direction in five of seven games so far, and with 38 over his last three games. If the Chargers have to throw often in this game, he’ll be the target of quite a few of those throws, and he’s proven to be productive with the ball in his hands. Stevie Johnson (FD $5,900, DK $3,200) has seen 5-8 targets in every game he’s played this season, and comes at a nice price on DraftKings considering their PPR scoring format. Five receptions for 60 yards would be a healthy return on your investment, and if he scores or breaks a big play, you’re sitting pretty in a tournament. With Antonio Gates likely to sit out again due to injury, Ladarius Green (FD $5,300, DK $3,000) will be a big part of the offense, and should be in your lineups, especially on DraftKings. And while it’s easy to forget about him, Malcom Floyd (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) is still lurking in the background, and has a couple of games with a decent target total so far this season. With Stevie Johnson spending most of his time in the slot against the respectable Ladarius Webb, Floyd may see more action on the outside against the terrible starting corners for the Ravens.

The Takeaway: With over 50 points expected by the fine folks in Las Vegas, this is a game to target for daily fantasy purposes. Rivers, Woodhead, Allen and Green are all cash game plays, while Johnson and Floyd are strong tournament options. A stack of Rivers, Allen, and Green or Floyd would be a fun way to load up on an offense that should throw quite a bit against one of the league’s worst passing defenses.

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: The Chargers are a fairly neutral matchup for passing games, and since their run defense is such a mess, I’m not expecting a lot out of Joe Flacco (FD $7,400, DK $5,500) as the home favorite quarterback in this one. I think there’s potential for a big game, as Josh McCown and Matthew Stafford are among the quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns against this defense, but I think it’s more likely that the Ravens keep the ball on the ground when they’re on offense. Flacco is a mediocre tournament option.

justin forsett

Running Game: San Diego is the second-worst run defense in the league according to numberFire and Football Outsiders, and have allowed the most points to backs in the league so far this season. Four backs have rushed for over 100 yards against them, while another two have totaled 100 yards from scrimmage. Four of the seven backs to carry the ball ten or more times against them have scored a touchdown. This all sets up perfectly for Justin Forsett (FD $6,900, DK $6,100), who is priced well and has been receiving consistent volume recently, and has scored twice in his last three games. He really needs to score to pay off his salary, but that’s something he should be able to do against a San Diego defense that has allowed running backs to score ten times so far this season.

Pass Catchers: Steve Smith (FD $6,700, DK $6,100) is the Keenan Allen of the Ravens, seeing a ton of targets on a regular basis, and turning them into fantasy production. He has seven or more targets in every game, and with so many points expected in this game and both teams playing at a high tempo, we can expect his volume to push up into the teens against the Chargers. The Bolts are weakest against opposing team’s WR1 and TE according to Football Outsiders, which means Smith and Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,000, DK $2,500) are the players to target for daily fantasy purposes. I agree, and think both are solid tournament plays.

The Takeaway: Justin Forsett is a top play in all formats at a very cheap price, while Flacco, Smith and Gillmore are tournament possibilities with upside should the Ravens find the need to pass to keep up or catch up with San Diego.

About the Author

LeoTPP
LeoTPP

Leo Howell is an associate editor, weekend site manager and writer for RotoGrinders. He has played fantasy sports for as long as he can remember, and has been playing DFS since 2012. He can be found on Twitter at @LeoHowell8