NFL Grind Down: Week 8, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
| Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 51 | 21.5 | -8 | 51 | 29.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.5 | 9 | 20 | 18 | Offense | 35.5 | 1 | 6 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 12 | 20 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 22.8 | 15 | 14 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 27 | 8 | 28 | 9 | Miami Dolphins | 11 | 16 | 24 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 56 | 36 | 3 | 472 | Edelman | 66 | 45 | 4 | 526 | |
| Matthews | 35 | 26 | 4 | 438 | LaFell | 8 | 2 | 0 | 25 | |
| Stills | 18 | 10 | 1 | 147 | Amendola | 31 | 25 | 2 | 292 | |
| Cameron | 38 | 17 | 1 | 223 | Gronkowski | 54 | 34 | 6 | 533 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dion Lewis, Brandon Bolden, Keshawn Martin (NEP, Questionable)
MIA Matchup Rating: 6.0
NE Matchup Rating: 8.5
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Two teams that play at a high tempo and allow a decent amount of fantasy points to receivers will face off on Thursday Night football, and the folks in Vegas agree that points will be scored. The current odds strongly favor the homestanding Patriots, and for good reason, but the Dolphins should get on the board as well against a New England defense that can be beaten, and may also have some garbage time to deal with. This would seem to be good news for Ryan Tannehill (FD $7,700, DK $5,600), as he’ll take on the same New England secondary that has allowed five touchdowns, no interceptions, and over 60 rushing yards to quarterbacks over their last two games. And while the Dolphins haven’t exactly faced the toughest of competition since their coaching change a few weeks ago, they are trending in the right direction on offense, and that includes their quarterback. He didn’t push the ball down the field at all in their huge win over Houston, but with the playmakers he has on offense, that might not be needed. I wouldn’t go crazy, but a lineup or two with Tannehill wouldn’t be a terrible decision this weekend.
Running Game: I have a feeling people are going to go crazy for Lamar Miller (FD $7,400, DK $4,700) this week, especially with his price on DK being so appealing. One of the leading rushers in the NFL, Chris Ivory, was held to 41 yards on 17 attempts against this New England defense last week, and since Week 1, no back has gone over 89 yards on the ground, and only one has scored a touchdown via the run. Miller hasn’t been all that involved in the passing game, either, and while that could change, I don’t think it’s worth banking on in this matchup.
Pass Catchers: According to Football Outsiders, teams’ wide receivers have above-average success against the New England defense, ranking 22nd, 20th and 21st at defending WR1, WR2, and other wide receivers, respectively. However, the pass defense as a whole ranks 11th. So while I wouldn’t go all-out with Tannehill, I wouldn’t mind a slightly aggressive approach to rostering Jarvis Landry (FD $7,400, DK $6,200). He’s the team’s top option in the passing game, and can turn nothing into something with his vision and creativity after the catch. The Patriots have good numbers against tight ends, but did allow Heath Miller to pick up a nice chunk of fantasy points in Week 1, and haven’t really faced a ton of great tight ends. I wouldn’t rule out Jordan Cameron (FD $5,500, DK $3,300), but I don’t think he’s necessary, either. And while Rishard Matthews (FD $6,600, DK $4,300) definitely has made his fair share of big plays this season, he’s still going to take a backseat to Landry and Cameron when the Dolphins are in a competitive game. His price has got ahead of his role, and he’s a tournament option at best.
The Takeaway: The Dolphins are expected to lose by a healthy margin, but they’re still expected to put points on the board. Look for Jarvis Landry as a preferred option, and Ryan Tannehill, Jordan Cameron and Rishard Matthews as tournament darts.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Marcus Mariota struggled against this Miami defense on a bad knee, and Kirk Cousins struggled against the Dolphins because he is a bad quarterback. Otherwise, passers have had good days against this secondary, with Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor and Brian Hoyer combining for eight touchdowns and only one pick. This is an entirely unnecessary introduction, as Tom Brady (FD $9,200, DK $8,300) doesn’t need a good matchup to flourish for your fantasy team. He’s playing at home in a big division game in the midst of a revenge tour against the NFL. The Dolphins are not obviously strong or weak against the pass or run, finding themselves outside of the top and bottom 10 in all of Football Outsiders and numberFire’s rankings. So with no obvious flaw to play against, look for New England to play to their strengths. That means Brady throwing 30-40 times and picking up a few touchdowns in an easy win. As he normally is, the New England quarterback is a solid foundation for any kind of lineup this weekend.
Running Game: Dion Lewis (FD $7,000, DK $6,400) is still hurting with an abdomen injury that crept up seemingly at random, and kept him out of the Patriots’ last game. If he does play, I think he’s worthy of consideration even after the Patriots abandoned a hopeless running game last week, as the Jets are a much tougher defense than the Patriots. But if he doesn’t suit up, I wouldn’t flock to LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,200, DK $4,700) as any sort of a core play. Miami was torched by “big” backs like Karlos Williams, Chris Ivory and Alfred Morris prior to their bye week and coaching change, but Blount isn’t very good, and the Dolphins are playing better football in recent weeks. This isn’t an “avoid Blount” game, and I certainly would rather have him than Lamar Miller in a tournament lineup. But don’t put him in a cash game, and don’t go overboard in your GPP lineups, either.
Pass Catchers: The Dolphins are similar to the Patriots in that they don’t defend receivers particularly well, but have a decent overall pass defense. Tight ends have done next to nothing against them this year if you look at the overall stats, but if you throw away games against the Jags, Jets and Texans, this team is actually quite vulnerable to the position. Both Jordan Reed and Charles Clay had 5+ catches, 60+ yards and a touchdown, while Delanie Walker had eight receptions for 97 yards. Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,400, DK $8,000) is definitely an option in this one. Julian Edelman (FD $7,600, DK $8,100) is as well, and Danny Amendola (FD $5,800, DK $3,600) has his quarterback’s trust and an increasing role even with Brandon LaFell (FD $5,500) back. Any of those three players can be used in any kind of lineup, as New England will throw at will against a defense that isn’t nearly as tough as the one they scored against twice in the final eight minutes last weekend to pick up a win.
The Takeaway: Tom Brady and any of his top receivers (Gronk, Edelman, Amendola) are in play, while the running back situation is tricky and uncertain, and will depend on the status of Dion Lewis.