NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 12
Welcome to the Week 12 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted 250+ lineups into the big GPP (pros) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With over $5,000 at stake, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak of a single player’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Carson Palmer $7100, 17.44 points (15.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 5.0 percent, Peak ownership: 18.3 percent
Carson Palmer had been a popular cash game pick all week as he had been averaging 29.8 points over the last 3 weeks against Cincinnati at home and Seattle in their house. This week’s matchup against the 49’ers featured the league’s 31st worst DVOA pass defense and a projected game total above average. While Palmer was a good play in cash game with a season floor of 18.34 points, both Michael Floyd and John Brown were limited by hamstring injuries and the Cardinals were projected to score 5.9 points less than their season average. In a game where the Cardinals were favored by up to 10.5 points, the pro’s figured that Palmer’s ceiling would be capped this week.
2. Russell Wilson $6000, 38.20 points (3.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 10.9 percent, Peak ownership: 41.1 percent
As I wrote about last week, Russell Wilson had been consistent throughout the year so far but without the major upside we had seen in 2014. Going up against a Steelers team that had averaged 26.3 points per game with Roethlisberger under center and limited running backs to 3.9 yards per carry (#6 rushing DVOA), Wilson was poised to have to pull out some magic to keep up. At a paltry $6,000 salary, he provided a lock for 3x value, while being capable of putting up much more. Although Wilson ended up having his usual 30 attempts, his defense made several interceptions, leaving Wilson with a short field which he converted for a season-high 5 touchdown passes.
Running Back
1. Doug Martin $5800, 10.8 points (25.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 10.7 percent, Peak ownership: 35.5 percent
Doug Martin had been the boom or bust running back that you salivate over for gigantic GPP tournaments, scoring over 20 points four times while also scoring single digits four times for a modest salary. However, nothing particularly of note stood out this week as the Colts allowed a below average 4.0 yards per carry and boasted the #11 DVOA rushing defense. Their 18th most fantasy points allowed to running backs had been inflated by an above average number of rushing touchdowns scored, something the Muscle Hamster had only completed in two games this season. While this may still warrant a flyer throughout a few lineups on a normal week, there were an abnormal number of value choices this week due to injuries: Spencer Ware, Thomas Rawls, Javorius Allen, Shaun Draughn.
2. Shaun Draughn $3800, 13.6 points (3.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 9.9 percent, Peak ownership: 31.3 percent
With Carlos Hyde still sidelined with a stress fracture in his root and ruled out on Friday, Shaun had been once again slotted as the clear bell-cow. With a team average of 13.9 points per game and going up against the Cardinals who only allowed 3.7 yards per carry with the #7 DVOA rushing defense, Shaun may not seem like the optimal play. However, he had been a big proponent in the passing game seeing an average of 6 catches per game while averaging 14 touches on the ground. At a bottom barrel salary, low projected ownership, and high usage rate, Shaun provided a 12 point floor (~3x) with 24 point upside (~6x).
Wide Receiver
1. Julio Jones $9400, 10.6 points (20.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 40.9 percent, Peak ownership: 94.8 percent
Julio had been averaging 13.5 targets per game for 119 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game with a mostly healthy team. With Leonard Hankerson & Devonta Freeman being ruled inactive this week, Julio and Jacob Tamme usages were bound to rise. However, Minnesota had held all but one team to 23 points or less per game and ranked middle of the road in passing per fantasy points allowed and DVOA. This may have moved the public owenship off of a potential sputtering Falcons offense and onto another fantasy star with a similar salary in DeAndre Hopkins against a porous Saints defense. While on the whole the Saints matchup seemed much better, Julio would lineup across from Xavier Rhodes (PFF’s #104 rated cornerback), while DeAndre would be facing Delvin Breaux (PFF’s #7 rated cornerback).
2. Mike Evans $7400, 11.4 points (9.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 5.6 percent, Peak ownership: 27.1 percent
Mike Evans had been putting up an average of 13 targets and 21.6 fantasy points over the last 3 weeks and Jameis Winston had just thrown for 5 touchdown passes in the last week. From scouring box scores, Mike Evans looked like a high-ceiling play on the verge of breaking out with a multi-TD game. However, he potentially would see coverage from Vontae Davis, one of the league’s premier cornerbacks, and would once again share targets with Vincent Jackson. When Jackson had been healthy, Evans averaged 8 targets per game compared to 14 when Jackson misses a game. With Tampa Bay projected to score 2.1 points less than their season average and Evan’s reduced volume, the pro’s faded him at almost half the ownership of the public.
Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski $7900, 20.8 points (6.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 9.9 percent, Peak ownership: 28.4 percent
Take any other tight-end, line them up against the most dominant defense in the league, project their team to score almost 30% less points than they have been averaging, and their ownership would be non-existent. Add in the fact that Gronk had just struggled this last week against Buffalo, completing only 2 catches; he was definitely was not on the mind of most DFS’ers. However, Gronk was in-line to see major usage with Amendola being ruled out, especially in the red zone where he is Brady’s most trusted target. He was a great low-ownership boom or bust play that the pro’s jumped on.
2. Gary Barnidge $4800, 16.1 points (19.0% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 28.9 percent, Peak ownership: 72.4 percent
Barnkowski’s matchup against the Baltimore Ravens may scratched him off some people’s list upon seeing a red 3 in Rotogrinder’s Week 12 First Look. However, while Baltimore had limited fantasy points to tight ends, the only tight ends they played worth mentioning were Antonio Gates in Week 8 and Barnidge in Week 5 (8 catches, 139 yard, and 1 TD on 10 targets). Football outsiders had the Ravens ranked 24th in DVOA against tight ends and Cleveland was projected to score 3.7 more points than their average. With McCown playing a majority of snaps, Barnidge averaged 22.0 fantasy points as compared to 8.4 with Manziel. Add in additional targets with Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel both sidelined with concussions and Barnidge was the highest owned TE by the pro’s (2nd highest to Delanie Walker for the public).
Defense & Special Teams
1. Bengals $3000, 17.0 points (12.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 18.6 percent, Peak ownership: 79.0 percent
With Case Keenum sidelined with a concussion, Nick Foles was slated to start for the St. Louis Rams who had the second lowest points scored in the league. The Rams had given up the 4th most points to defenses on the year, while the Bengals defense allowed the least number of points to opposing offenses and were within the top-third of teams in interceptions and sacks. While the Bengals gave up one of the higher yards per carry to running backs and had not put up gaudy fantasy numbers on the year, they put up points on offense. With the second highest Vegas point spreads on the slate, the Bengals were projected to take the lead and force the Rams to throw. The projected game-flow went according to plan as the Bengals forced Foles into three interceptions en-route to a 31-7 blowout.