NFL Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 6

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-10-17 04:20:44

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen, but we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections by test driving our Premium content — DraftKings 7 Day Free Trial | FanDuel 7 Day Free Trial

Week 5 in Review

Week 5 Hits

As you can see in the above, we smashed our projections on a ton of the chalk. Unfortunately, some very strange behavior elsewhere from the field left our overall accuracy down to a CORREL value of .8909 last week. It’s great to see Bell, Brown, and Brady accurately projected. They were highly owned for good reason, and that might be the underreported story regarding own %. Ownership is often heavy on the best plays, and represents “the wisdom of the crowd.” In all three cases, this would have worked out well. The exact opposite would have been true for Jarvis Landry and C.J. Anderson. They killed a lot of people’s hopes and dreams last week, including mine. Considering my core included T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, Tyrell Williams, and Theo Riddick… I am not at all pleased with these two individuals. That being said, if you faded them based on our double digit projected ownership… congratulations.

Week 5 Misses

We properly had Deandre Washington pegged as chalk, but we basically mixed up the order between DW and Jordan Howard. I dropped Steve Smith ‘s projection dramatically after learning about the wind conditions. That was clearly an error, as nobody bailed. It does appear that some people decided to roster Terrence West upon that news. If only their coordinator agreed with you, he would still have a job and you would have more money. We probably should have bumped him a little higher on the wind news. Sterling Shepard was cheap and I guess the public felt the need to use him for salary savings. I suppose he was also a pivot from Odell Beckham Jr, and late swap probably boosted his projection a little. Zach Miller was pegged as chalky, but ended up a bit lower than that. Zach Ertz ate up most of the own % in that price range.

Week 6 Analysis

A QUICK NOTE ON OUR OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS: I use both the standalone Ownership Projection Page and the new and improved Player Projections Page to help me write this article and build lineups each week. I create a projection for every player on the slate each week as a part of our premium content, and I highly encourage you to check it out. See below. All kinds of valuable information is now available FOR FREE on the Player Projection page, and if you subscribe to NFL premium you can also see my “pOWN%” column for that site and sport.

Quarterback

Drew Brees and Cam Newton will battle it out for highest owned QB this week. They face off against each other in a narrative rich, fantasy friendly environment. The Panthers are in a must-win spot and traveling to the Superdome. Road teams that travel there tend to perform very well ever since Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and the most recent version of the Saints have been at the helm. The Saints have a DVOA rank of 26th against the pass and 30th against the rush. Cam Newton is pretty good at both of those activities. Drew Brees will be uncorking spirals against a rag-tag crew of old people and “career mode” names that you’ve never heard of. He will throw for 300 yards or I will quit DFS forever (no, not really – but you get the idea). Vegas is projecting 53 points, and just a 3 point spread. Experts and TV pundits are all saying the same thing about the fantasy players in this game: Start ‘em. There isn’t much else to say here… people are going to want to roster players from this game and I expect that to include the QBs.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

Most people aren’t going to roster Matthew Stafford. Don’t be that guy. Be this guy. Stafford will attempt passes against the Rams, who will be without their best cover cornerback Trumaine Johnson and have a banged up defensive line. At RB, the Lions will be lining up discarded trash Justin Forsett along with the essentially injured Dwayne Washington and future dad runner Zach Zenner. It’s fair to assume they’ll throw the ball a few extra times, but even if they don’t the Rams D should give up the efficiency we’re looking for. Aside from the Lions being more likely to throw, it’s also worth noting that the Lions D is ranked 32 in football outsiders DVOA. That’s dead last if you’re scoring at home. The Rams should be able to move the ball, and force the Lions to keep up in a close game. From a price perspective, he’s a really good value on Draftkings and I think you could make it work on Fanduel too. Stafford has an awful lot going for him, and the landscape of Week 6 will cause him to get overlooked more than he should.

Running Back

This week the running back position will be the spot to pay up. Le’Veon Bell will be the top priority in this regard. He will see a fantastic matchup with the Miami Dolphins and looks better than ever out there with the Steelers. He’s wisely being used in the passing game to take advantage of his versatility, and unlike other coaches Mike Tomlin refuses to take his best (second best? third best?) player off the field (seeing over 92% of snaps). It has all the traditional makings of high ownership: fair price, high vegas team total, extreme touting, recency bias, etc. He’ll be one of the two highest owned backs of the week without question.

LeSean McCoy will compete in an uptempo environment when Chip Kelly and the 49ers come to town. He’s seen true workhorse usage in 2016, and looks more like the Shady that Andy Reid used to coach than the one Chip Kelly foolishly traded away. So yeah, add that to the list of narratives this week: McCoy pretty much hates Chip Kelly or at minimum doesn’t care for him. Narratives aside, the Bills have a 26 team total and are a touchdown home favorite against a bad team traveling cross country with Colin Kaepernick as their QB. It’s so juicy that everyone will notice. His ownership will be through the roof and rightfully so.

My Favorite RB Ownership Value of the Week

The Texans probably envisioned a more robust start to the Lamar Miller / Brock Osweiler era than we’ve seen so far. Miller is the RB31 in PPR scoring and is averaging the same YPC as Orleans Darkwa. PFF recently ranked the Texans offensive line 29th so far this season, and that certainly isn’t helping. However, there is good news on the horizon. It’s called the Colts DST. They rank 31st in overall DVOA which includes a 30th ranked pass unit and a 31st ranked rush unit. That’s not great, Bob. His spot is excellent and he won’t accrue the massive ownership he may have otherwise seen due to the high number of strong plays in his price range. The bottom line for me is that I know he’s going to run for 100, and whether or not he wins people the money this week simply depends on how many times he reaches the end zone.

Wide Receiver

Underpriced and coming off an extremely strong performance last week, Cameron Meredith is the only crystal clear chalk worth discussing in Week 6. I think there are at least 3 other players who could end the slate as the second most highly owned (depending on the site), and only Meredith is assured a top two spot. His price tag on Draftkings opens up the RB heavy strategy we can expect the masses to deploy. His point per dollar projection assures the public that he is “safe”, and cash games will be littered with Meredith shares. Vegas is fine with Chicago usage, as they are credited with a 24 point team total. His matchup is perceived as good (Note: It’s not really that good) as the Jaguars are a perennial punching bag of season long and DFS owners alike. The alarm bells are starting to sound for me that this play is a trap in tournaments, but I want you to IGNORE THAT and trust the wisdom of the crowd. The crowd is all over Cameron Meredith as an elite value play this week, and it’s really hard for me to argue with that. I rostered him in a high dollar Thursday lock lineup. I have him ranked #1 in my value rankings, and if they played this slate 1,000 times that would probably work out. My true concern in GPPs with Meredith is that they are only going to play it once, and there is a path for him to underwhelm. I am going to have exposure to him for sure, but I’ll stop far short of going all-in. My thoughts aside, he’ll be the highest owned WR this week without a doubt.

My Favorite WR Ownership Value of the Week

I mentioned that I’ll have Cameron Meredith exposure despite my concerns, and one of the reasons for that is to pair him in spots with Allen Robinson. Robinson has elite physical traits, gets a large market share of targets, and sees an elevated number of red zone opportunities per game. He’ll run routes against and average overall secondary in a game that Vegas is projecting to be very close. Hidden beneath the Bears 14th ranked pass defense is their 27th DVOA rank against the WR1. Robinson is priced up to the point that roster construction becomes a challenge, and that will dwindle his ownership as the crowd seeks to spend their dollars at the RB position instead. He’s the kind of player that can explode for a huge game at any time, and this week there are some reasons to suspect it will happen. He’ll be far lower owned than his prospects of having a top 5 WR output, and for this reason I really like using him in GPP formats.

Tight End

For different reasons, I think that the TEs in New Orleans will be amongst the chalk in Week 6. For Fleener, it is based on his price tag. He’s available at a discount and provides access to the elite game environment at a relatively challenging position. For Olsen, he’s coming off an outlier game that may have single-handedly made America’s fantasy weekend (or broke it, depending on your exposure). No matter which side of Olsen you were on, it is clear he is still the number one option in this offense. Olsen’s target count this year is as follows: 9-8-10-13-13. The only reason his ownership is projected this low is because of his astronomical price point for TE. I’d normally input some stats here about the Saints defense, but I’ll save all that and just tell you what you already know: They suck. The Saints vs. Panthers game is loaded with fantasy goodness, and will command a ton of ownership.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of the Week

DFS is a game of competing minds above all else. We are all given the same players to choose from. We are all at the mercy of the same performance outcomes. This week, we are all looking at the performance of the New England Patriots last week and giving it the “nah wave”. I mean that in a relative sense. For whatever reason the crowd is gravitating towards other options, and away from the team that looked like razor sharp Super Bowl favorites on both sides of the ball last week. Part of the reason the Patriots will be overlooked is their unpredictability. The Patriots are individually hard to trust, and therefore hard to roster. The price point on a guy like Rob Gronkowski doesn’t make that any easier. He’s priced through the roof on Fanduel and with plenty of aggression on Draftkings. It’s almost like he catches passes from the best quarterback that ever lived. It’s almost like he’s coached by the best coach in the history of coaches. It’s almost like he has a massive 27.5 team total and will run routes against low graded linebackers and safeties. It’s almost like he has a 160 yard, 3 TD ceiling that basically nobody else has. Oh wait, he has all that. And he’s going to be like 7% owned. In this game of competing minds, finding a way to make it work with Gronk could very well be your key advantage this week.

Defense

The Bills and Texans will be two of the higher owned defenses in Week 6. Buffalo gets to tee off against Colin Kaepernick and the disgustingly bad receivers of the San Francisco 49ers at home. They are huge favorites and playing very good defense right now. As a Bills fan, I am praying Rex finally has this defense where he wants it. As a DFS player, I am praying Kaepernick continues to play like … Kaepernick. The only thing that could slow down their own% is price, but with McCoy being such a strong value I expect a gaggle of pairings with Bills D. I think the Texans might benefit from that correlation as well. Lamar Miller will have modest ownership, but players will also pair Texans D with Will Fuller. The curtain has been pulled back on Andrew Luck, and he’s been exposed as a player who can’t perform that well against the pass rush. He becomes inefficient and mistake prone. The Colts offensive line deserves blame for this too, but the bottom line is that Clowney and Co. should keep the heat turned up this coming Sunday night. They’ll be a popular choice at their affordable price tag.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of the Week

The forecast in Seattle is awesome for their defense. Rainy, windy, chilly, and extremely loud. The fraudulent (yeah, I said it) Atlanta Falcons are about to leave the friendly confines of their dome and face another big test in Seattle. We saw the Chargers expose Denver as being a bit weaker than last year on Thursday night, and I don’t expect the same success for Atlanta this week as they saw last week in Mile High. I do think that the Seahawks will see some ownership, particularly on Fanduel where they are relatively affordable. None the less, they should still be lower owned than the Bills and make an excellent pivot in my view. They remain a high caliber defensive unit, and the conditions are right for a big game as 6 point home favorites.