NFL Week 11 Lines and Betting Picks 2020
Sunday included fireworks in Arizona, yet another win in Miami, a couple of blowouts before ending with a prime-time surprise on the East Coast as Cam Newton upset Lamar Jackson by nearly as many points as the Ravens were favored by at online sportsbooks.
When all was said and done Monday night, home teams cashed against the spread in 8-of-14 games, and favorites went 9-5 ATS. Totals were closer to a coin flip but Unders finished two games above .500.
2020 NFL betting Trends
- Away Teams are 77-60 against the spread.
- Underdogs are 82-65 against the spread.
- Overs/Unders are 82-65.
NFL Week 11 Betting Lines
In a season where offenses have reached the end zone at an unprecedented rate, Week 11 sets up to be somewhat of an anomaly. Only four games have implied totals of at least 50 points — two of which are prime-time games, meaning the main NFL DFS slate has only two games with an Over/Under higher than 50 points.
NFL Week 11 will start with a bang, as a premier Thursday Night Football matchup will try to make up for the lackluster Monday night game we saw between the Vikings and Bears. On Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa hopes to remain undefeated as the Dolphins travel to Denver and continue their push for an AFC East title, and the Saints will try to make do without Drew Brees. The night will end up as the Kansas City Chiefs seek revenge against the Las Vegas Raiders before the Rams clash with the Bucs on Monday Night Football.
Oh yeah, don’t forget to check out Meansy’s betting picks for the 2020 NBA Draft.
Early NFL Week 11 Lines and Betting Picks
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Tied atop the NFC West at 6-3 with both the Seahawks and Rams, the Cardinals make arguably the biggest road trip of the Kliff Kingsbury-Kyler Murray era. They’ll do so a week after Murray connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a miracle win against the Buffalo Bills. While this game will be interesting no matter which way you’re looking at it — the spread or the total — it will also have implications for NFL MVP futures bettors. Before the Miracle in the Desert, Murray was as long as +2800 at some sportsbooks just last week! He’s now down to +800 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson (+280) has fallen behind Patrick Mahomes (+180) after previously being the odds-on favorite to win the award. If the Cardinals win on the road and beat Seattle a second time in four weeks, expect Murray to swap places with Wilson on the betting board.
We’ll have a more in-depth betting preview ahead of Thursday, but right now I’m betting on the Seahawks and the Under. I won’t be shocked if I regret the latter.
NFL Week 11 Picks: Seahawks -3, Under 58
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Tua is undefeated since being promoted to starting quarterback. While he certainly has met expectations for his first few games in the NFL, the wins are mainly a byproduct of the Dolphins’ improved defense and special teams. The defensive improvements might be real but the special teams unit is not.
Miami offensive DVOA with Fitzpatrick: 1.3%— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) November 16, 2020
with Tua: -4.0%
Miami defensive DVOA with Fitzpatrick: 1.7%
with Tua: -7.6%
(Remember, defense is better when it is negative.)
Miami special teams with Fitzpatrick: 5.8%
with Tua: 20.9%
The Dolphins are bound to trip up sooner or later. I’m thinking sooner.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Broncos +3.5
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
The big news here is that the Packers return wide receiver Allen Lazard but might be without Davante Adams after the star wideout injured his foot against the Jaguars. Despite the uncertainty regarding Adams, this current Week 11 line isn’t far off from where it opened. If we’re trying to bet like a Bayesian, I’d say it leads us to taking the Colts -2. The same might be true for the Under.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Colts -2, Under 51
10/19 Update: Packers beat writer, Rob Demovsky, reports that Adams was a no-go on Thursday.
10/20: Adams practiced Friday.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
The other pick I’m hopping on right away is the Chiefs -6, which will also be on primetime. Again, we’ll have a full breakdown with picks against the spread and props come Sunday morning, but I’m locking in this betting line early for a couple of reasons. First, it’s no secret Andy Reid, like other great coaches, is tough to beat following a week off. The future Hall-of-Famer has routinely taken advantage of his opponents in these situations, winning outright in 19-of-22 regular-season games after his team’s bye week, with two of his three losses coming against undefeated teams. If you want to include the playoffs, that record 24-5. Impressive, indeed.
However, readers here care less about who is winning the game but more about who is covering the spread. Well, Reid excels at doing that, too. After a bye week, including playoffs, his teams are a very profitable 20-9 against the spread. Moreover, the Raiders gave the Chiefs some bulletin board material when they beat the defending Super Bowl champs and subsequently took a victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are going to score points Sunday night. A lot of them. Too many for the Raiders to keep up. This is my favorite Week 11 betting pick.
NFL Week 11 Pick: Chiefs -6
NFL Week 11 Picks
|Week 11 Lines||Lookahead Line Comparison||Betting Picks||Thursday Update|
|Cardinals at Seahawks -3, O/U 58||Seahawks -5.5||SEA -3, U58 at BetMGM|
|Falcons at Saints -4.5, O/U 50||Saints -6.5|
|Eagles at Browns -3.5, O/U 47.5||Browns -1.5|
|Lions at Panthers -1.5||Panthers -2.5|
|Patriots at Texans +1.5, O/U 47.5||Texans -2.5|
|Steelers at Jaguars +10, O/U 47||Steelers -9.5|
|Bengals at Football Team -2, O/U 46.||Football Team -1|
|Titans at Ravens -6.5, O/U 47||Ravens -6.5|
|Dolphins at Broncos +3.5, O/U 46||Broncos +1.5||DEN +3.5|
|Jets at Chargers -8.5, O/U 47.6||Chargers -10|
|Packers at Colts -2, O/U 51.5||Colts -1.5||IND -2, U51|
|Cowboys at Vikings -7.5||Vikings -8.5|
|Chiefs at Raiders +6, O/U 56.5||Raiders +7||KC -6|
|Rams at Buccaneers -3, O/U 47.5||Bucs -3|
Check back as we update this article with more Week 11 lines, game previews, news and betting picks between now and Sunday.
Image Credit: Imagn