NHL Slate Summary: Tuesday, February 21st
After a very slow night on the ice yesterday, the action heats up today as 18 teams will lace up their skates and hop over the boards.
With the NHL trade deadline just two weeks away, the results over the next week will likely determine the market’s buyers and sellers.
Overview
The headliner tonight is a battle between the two heavyweights in the Central Division as the Blackhawks will invade the Xcel Energy Center looking to cut into Minnesota’s seven-point lead. They’ve split their first two meetings this season and this game should create a playoff-type atmosphere in St. Paul.
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Perusing the rest of the schedule uncovers some very fantasy friendly looking games as well; 1) The Los Angeles Kings draw the mouthwatering matchup against the terrible Colorado Avalanche, 2) Toronto and Winnipeg square off in what could be an offensive shootout, and 3) Both Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid are in action and find themselves battling for the NHL scoring crown this season.
With plenty of big-name (and big money) stars to choose from tonight, we’re once again going to need to hunt for some value to help fill out our rosters. Luckily, there are plenty of fine options that I’ll run through a bit later.
Storylines
New York Islanders’ road woes – With just seven wins away from the Barclays Center all season, the New York Islanders are tied with the Dallas Stars at the bottom of the NHL in that category. They’ll invade “The Joe” in Detroit for the last time ever, and while Detroit is not a team you should be targeting often, they have won both prior meetings between these two teams and are riding high after defeating both Washington and Pittsburgh over the weekend.
Clash for the Calder Trophy – With Patrik Laine and Auston Matthews squaring off tonight, we’ll get a glimpse at the two front-runners for this season’s Calder Trophy (who just so happen to be the top two picks from the 2016 NHL Draft). Laine recorded his first career hat-trick the first time these two teams squared off.
A lack of discipline in Calgary – The Calgary Flames will enter tonight’s game owning an NHL high 694 penalty minutes on the season. This equates to nearly 12 penalty minutes per game which is a major problem considering their very mediocre 81.2% penalty kill. This is a major boost to those seeing heavy minutes on the Nashville power-play, and in particular to stud defensemen Roman Josi and P.K. Subban.
Colorado’s ineptitude – We’re used to home games in Colorado being fantasy gold mines for visiting teams in MLB, but Denver’s NHL franchise hand delivers high scoring games to their opponents everywhere they travel. Colorado has surrendered a league-worst 3.32 goals against per game this season while also scoring a league low 1.98 goals per game. Los Angeles should be very popular tonight, so don’t get too excited if you’re off to an early GPP lead.
Calgary’s offense tends to stay in Calgary – For the second year in a row, the Calgary Flames just can’t seem to score goals away from the Scotiabank Saddledome. While their offense has clicked for 3.03 goals per game on home ice, that number dips all the way down to 2.07 goals per game on the road. That 0.96 goal differential is the largest in the NHL this season; Give a boost to Pekka Rinne. Being on this list twice is not a good sign for the Flames tonight. Note: Montreal has scored 0.82 fewer goals per game on the road and face a tough test at Madison Square Garden.
Top Targets
Jeff Carter – Los Angeles Kings – If you’re not picking on the Colorado Avalanche in cash games, you’re not doing something right. He’s lit the lamp two times in their two previous meetings this season and posted five goals and five assists in 10 games since the All-Star break. He has more game-winning goals this season (9) than Colorado has home victories (7).
Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets – As I mentioned earlier, Laine torched the Maple Leafs for three goals in their only previous meeting. The 18-year-old has been an absolute force offensively all season long and has really been clicking lately with nine goals and 12 assists in his last 16 games.
Viktor Arvidsson – Nashville Predators – He doesn’t seem to garner quite the amount of attention he likely deserves, but Arvidsson looks poised for another nice game tonight for several reasons; 1) He’s posted six goals and three assists in eight games this month, 2) picked up a pair of assists when these teams squared off earlier this season, 3) his 179 shots on goal leads the team and 4) His elite 56.34 CF% suggests continued quality production can be reasonably expected.
Mikael Granlund – Minnesota Wild – After three solid, yet unspectacular seasons to start his career, Granlund has taken things up a level this season. He’ll take the ice tonight owning 53 points in 58 games and has been a force at the Xcel Energy Center, where he owns 11 goals and 18 assists in just 29 games. Dating back to early December, he’s scored 12 goals and dished out 27 assists in his last 36 games. He and his linemates (Mikko Koivu and Jason Zucker) did see a heavy dose of Jonathan Toews in their last meeting, but Bruce Boudreau should be able to use the last line change to dictate the matchups he wants tonight.
Jonathan Drouin – Tampa Bay Lightning – If you saw his OT goal the other night, you’re already fully aware of his elite talent level. Drouin has been a bit of enigma during his time in Tampa Bay, but he’s quietly having a fine season with 17 goals and 19 assists in 50 games. He found the back of the net the only other time he faced the Edmonton Oilers this season and I’d expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder tonight with Connor McDavid in town. Throw in the fact that he’s thrived on home ice (11 goals and 10 assists in 22 games at Amalie Arena) and he looks to be very reasonably priced across the industry tonight.
Victor Hedman – Tampa Bay Lightning – With Brent Burns getting the night off, it’s Hedman and Erik Karlsson sitting alone in the top tier of blue-liners. While Karlsson is also a fine option, Hedman can be found at a bit of a discount by comparison and offers similiar upside. Hedman has scored three goals and added three assists over the last three games, is a mortal lock for 20+ minutes of ice-time, and picked up an assist against Edmonton in their only other meeting.
Roman Josi – Nashville Predators – Unless you skipped the section prior, this pick should already make some sense. Josi QBs the Predators’ top power-play unit and has poured in four goals and three assists in his last seven games.
Value Options
Anders Lee – New York Islanders – He picked up a power-play assist against New Jersey on Sunday night and now owns five goals and six assists in just 10 games during the month of February. Lee is just two years removed from a 25-goal season and has clearly developed a nice rapport with linemate John Tavares.
Jake Guentzel – Pittsburgh Penguins – He’s still rather cheap on most sites and has the very enviable opportunity to play alongside Sidney Crosby on the Penguins’ top forward line. He dished out another assist in their last game over the weekend and also had an assist against Carolina when they faced off last month.
Josh Leivo – Toronto Maple Leafs – I’m probably just as sick of writing about him as you are of seeing him here, but alas, here he is again. He’s posted six points in eight games and (small sample size alert) his 6.62 xGF60 is essentially breaking prediction models everywhere. If Mitch Marner sits once again, he has to be viewed as one of the top punt plays.
Mathieu Perreault – Winnipeg Jets – Andrew Copp is set to miss yet another game and that means Perrault will continue to skate alongside the very talented duo of Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine. He’s lit the lamp in each of the last two games and is riding a three-game point streak. With this game expected to be a bit of a track meet, he offers plenty of value tonight.
Anthony Mantha – Detroit Red Wings – It took Mantha awhile to crack the Red Wings big league club, but that extra seasoning in Grand Rapids has paid off. He’s often looked to be the Wings’ top offensive weapon this season and is now thriving alongside Henrik Zetterberg on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. He has two goals and six assists in nine games this month and has already tallied a goal and an assist in the two previous games against the Islanders.
Brayden Point – Tampa Bay Lightning – Point scored his eighth goal of the season on Sunday and has now tallied three goals and two assists during his four-game point streak. His fine play has even earned him the job as the center of the second power-play unit.
Jake Gardiner – Toronto Maple Leafs – I don’t totally understand why Mike Babcock insists on using Gardiner on the point of the power-play, but he did just erupt for a goal and two assists against Carolina on Sunday. He should once again see plenty of playing time with the man advantage as the Winnipeg Jets have surrendered an ugly 48 power-play goals against this season (only Dallas has allowed more).